21:02 UTC
Downtrend, five weeks of lower highs · RSI 34 · price 1.14853
Lower highs / lower lows, price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Five weeks of lower highs since the 1.17112 peak, and last week's sessions closed below the 1.1569–1.1600 shelf that had capped and floored price through the prior month — a range break that ends the summer advance's structure. The hawkish Fed dot plot did the damage midweek, a 78-pip daily decline followed by Friday's six-week low at 1.14545; price now trades under EMA20 (1.1561) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 34, not yet oversold on this timeframe. The 61.8% retracement of the June–August 1.13242–1.17112 advance sits at 1.14720 and has so far contained the close.
Support: 1.14545, 1.14175, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1600, 1.16537
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.14545 friday low confirms a lower low and exposes the jul low at 1.14175 then the 1.1400 psych area
- Failure at 1.14720 (61.8% fib) on a closing basis removes the last shelf inside the June–August swing
- Reclaim of the 1.1561 ema20 and the 1.1600 round number would invalidate the range break read
- Lagarde Mon/Tue and US flash PMIs Wed are the week's main event risk for this structure