21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening at the lows · RSI 37 · price 1.14853
Successive lower highs and lower lows; three-day base above 1.1455.
The window is a clean stair-step decline from 1.1687, with each consolidation shelf giving way lower — the last leg was the post-FOMC impulse that sliced the 1.1534 broken base as the hawkish Fed dot plot repriced US front-end yields. Price has since spent five sessions compressing between the 1.14545 six-week low and the 1.14975 range high, with ATR(14) around 23 pips and RSI near 37 showing downside momentum flattening rather than reversing. Both EMA20 (~1.1499) and EMA50 sit above spot, so the descending lower-highs structure is still the dominant read.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.15344
What it said to watch
- Sustained H4 trade below the 1.14545 six-wk low opens the 1.1435 next zone and the 1.1400 psych handle
- An H4 close above the 1.14975 range high and back through EMA20 would invalidate the compression read and put 1.15344 broken base in play
- Lagarde Mon 15:00 UTC and again Tue 12:00 UTC is the main euro-side event risk in thin data
- US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift the USD leg driving this structure