EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Friday, 18 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive legs with sideways pauses · RSI 32 · price 1.1463
Series of lower highs and lower lows; latest leg parked on the six-wk low.
Three weeks of stair-stepping lower: 1.1687 gave way to 1.1586, then the 1.1530 prior shelf broke on the post-Fed hawkish dot-plot repricing, dropping price straight to the 1.1455 six-wk low. The last eight bars have coiled in a tight 1.1455–1.1497 band beneath both EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) near 22 pips — compression after an impulse rather than a base, and the 1.1550 lower high caps any recovery attempt. Each probe of 1.1455 has so far been bought back, but closes are pinned to the lower half of the band.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1530, 1.1550
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 closes below the 1.1455 six-wk low would confirm a fresh lower low and expose 1.1435 next shelf, then the 1.1400 psych level
An H4 close back above the 1.1497 range top would break the consolidation upward and put the 1.1530 prior shelf back in play
Reclaiming 1.1550 lower high is the minimum needed to break the chain of lower highs
Lagarde Mon 15:00 UTC and US Flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events capable of resolving this compression
15:26 UTC
Downtrend, extending after the post-FOMC break · RSI 31 · price 1.14603
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows; three-week decline now coiling just above the low.
The window is one continuous staircase lower from 1.1691, and the hawkish Fed dot path did the damage: a single H4 bar broke the 1.15340 shelf that had capped the prior week's balance and ran to a six-week low at 1.14545. The bounce since has stalled twice around the 1.14975 swing high, which now sits on top of EMA20 (~1.1497), with EMA20 below EMA50 (~1.15434) and price well beneath both. ATR(14) at roughly 22 pips is expanded versus the pre-break grind, and RSI near 31 reflects momentum still pointed down without a reclaim of the broken shelf.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1440
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1534, 1.15434
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14545 confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.14400 round number
An H4 close back above the 1.14975 swing high / EMA20 would neutralise the post-break read
Only a move through 1.15340 broken shelf and the ema50 at 1.15434 would break the lower-high sequence
Lagarde Mon 15:00 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending after breakdown · RSI 35 · price 1.14849
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows; tight consolidation at the lows.
Three weeks of unbroken lower highs and lower lows, from 1.1711 down to 1.1455, with the latest leg an impulsive 100-pip break through the 1.1530-1.1556 shelf that had capped price for five sessions — the hawkish Fed hike and the wider rate-differential story behind it. Price has since spent six bars coiling in a 35-pip band between the 1.1455 swing low and the 1.1497 swing high, with ATR(14) near 21 pips compressing back toward pre-break levels. EMA20 and EMA50 both sit above price and the 1.1535 breakdown level is now the first structural cap.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1535, 1.1556
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1497 swing high would break the post-breakdown consolidation and put the 1.1535 breakdown level back in play
Failure to hold 1.1455 confirms another lower low and opens the 1.1400 round number
Flash eurozone and US PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the next catalyst capable of resolving this compression
Lower highs and lower lows; eight-bar base above 1.1455.
The window is a clean stair-step lower from 1.1711, with each swing high capped progressively and the decisive leg an 84-pip impulse bar that broke the 1.1527–1.1534 shelf as the hawkish Fed hike and higher dots were priced through the week. Price has since spent eight bars carving a tight base between 1.14545 and 1.14975, with ATR(14) at roughly 20 pips — compressed relative to the impulse bar — while price holds below both EMA20 and EMA50, the latter around 1.1545. RSI near 36 is subdued rather than extended, and the base high at 1.14975 is the first structural marker the recovery has yet to clear.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1534, 1.1545
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.14975 base high would put the broken low at 1.15340 back in play
Loss of the 1.14545 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.1400 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1545 ema50 would negate the lower-high sequence
Eurozone PPI at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 07:30 UTC could reshape this base
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulse then pause · RSI 31 · price 1.14743
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating under broken range floor.
Stair-step downtrend intact: each leg lower since the 1.16537 area has been a single impulse bar followed by a tight shelf, and the hawkish Fed hike delivered the latest one — an 84-pip bar that broke the 1.15341 range floor. Price has since gone flat between the 1.14545 swing low and the 1.14975 prior high, with ATR(14) near 20 pips after the expansion and price trading below both EMA20 (~1.1506) and EMA50 (~1.1567). RSI(14) around 31 is stretched but not yet turning, and the last four bars show demand stepping in around the swing low without reclaiming any broken structure.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.15341, 1.15562
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.14975 prior high would question the breakout continuation read
Reclaim of the 1.15341 range floor, and then the 1.15562 swing high, would end the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14545 swing low confirms another lower-low and puts the 1.1400 psych level in focus
German/EZ PPI and Fed speakers are the next scheduled catalysts that could break this shelf