Successive lower highs and lower lows; new leg down then tight consolidation.
Price has stepped down through the whole window from 1.1689 to sub-1.1480, with each bounce capped below the previous one — the sharpest leg came on the post-FOMC bar that sliced 85 pips through the 1.1534 broken shelf after the hawkish Fed hike and dot-plot shift. Since that impulse the market has coiled in a 1.1455–1.1498 band, holding the 1.14545 swing low while stalling under the prior high at 1.14975 and a declining EMA20 near 1.1509; both EMAs sit above spot. ATR(14) around 21 pips is modest for the pair, so the compression after an expansion bar is doing the work of digesting the move rather than reversing it.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1509, 1.1534
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.14975 and the 1.1509 ema20 would break the sequence of lower highs
Loss of the 1.14545 swing low exposes the 1.1435 range base, then the 1.1400 psych handle
A push back through the 1.1534 broken shelf would invalidate the downtrend read
Eurozone/German PPI and US industrial production in the next session, plus 23 Sep PMIs, are the catalysts that could reset this structure
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended after impulsive leg · RSI 33 · price 1.14754
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1711; new 1½-month low at 1.14545, now consolidating.
The sequence of lower highs from 1.1711 stayed intact and the multi-day 1.1527–1.1556 shelf gave way on an 84-pip impulse bar after the hawkish Fed hike and hawkish dots, printing 1.14545 before the pair stalled. Price is consolidating in a tight 1.1455–1.1497 band beneath the prior high at 1.1497, with EMA20 (~1.1517) below EMA50 (~1.1559) and both capping from above. ATR(14) near 21 pips is expanding versus the mid-window compression, so the move is trending rather than coiling, while RSI at 33 shows momentum stretched without being fully oversold.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1527, 1.1559
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.14545 swing low confirms continuation toward the 1.1435 downside tgt and the 1.1400 psych level
Recovery through the 1.1527 broken floor would invalidate the current lower-high sequence; only 1.1559 (ema50) reclaimed neutralises the H4 downtrend
Failure to clear 1.1497 prior high keeps the consolidation capped
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production within the next bars could materially shift this read
15:21 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 29 · price 1.14733
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh swing low.
H4 has printed an unbroken sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1694 high three weeks ago, and the hawkish Fed drove price through the 1.1527/1.1535 broken shelf that had contained the prior five sessions, extending the leg to a swing low at 1.14545. ATR(14) near 19 pips is expanding rather than compressing, with price beneath both EMA20 and EMA50 — trend extension rather than range behaviour. RSI(14) around 29 is oversold and the last four bars have gone flat in a 1.1455–1.1483 band, consolidating the impulse instead of accepting lower.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1535, 1.1545
What it said to watch
An H4 close above 1.1485 first res would be the first break of the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.14545 swing low opens the 1.1435 next shelf and the 1.1400 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1535 broken shelf / 1.1545 prior swing would invalidate the downtrend read
BoJ decision and Fed's Bowman on Friday, plus US Industrial Production, could materially shift this read
Uninterrupted sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1711 swing high three weeks ago, with the multi-day 1.1527 shelf giving way on the post-FOMC impulse bar that ran 84 pips and closed at 1.1463 — the hawkish Fed dots and strong US retail sales own the rate narrative while EUR has been offered every session since the ECB hike. Price is capped well below EMA20 (~1.1514) and EMA50 (~1.1556), which remain in bearish sequence, and the last four bars have coiled in a tight 1.1455-1.1483 band directly above the 1.1450 shelf. ATR(14) near 21 pips is inflated by the single break bar; the subsequent contraction is a pause inside the move rather than a base, and RSI at 29 sits in oversold territory without any divergence yet.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1500, 1.1527
What it said to watch
Four-bar compression above the 1.1450 shelf — failure to hold it exposes the 1.1377 area
H4 close back above the broken shelf at 1.1527 would invalidate the lower-high sequence; 1.14832 prior high and the 1.1500 psych level are the first hurdles
US jobless claims / Philly Fed today and German-EZ PPI Friday 06:00 GMT can re-price this leg inside the next bar or two
RSI at 29 with eight straight EUR down sessions makes a short-covering bounce into EMA20 (~1.1514) a live structural risk to the trend read
Lower highs and lower lows; fresh multi-week low, now basing above it.
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 pivot; the 1.1530 broken shelf that capped price for three sessions gave way in a single 84-pip H4 bar, taking EURUSD to 1.14545 — the lowest print in the window. The slide is consistent with the hawkish FOMC dots and the run of EUR losses since the ECB's Sept 10 hike, with price now well below both EMA20 (~1.1509) and EMA50 (~1.1556). The last four bars have coiled in a 1.1455-1.1483 consolidation, and ATR(14) near 19.5 pips remains elevated versus the pre-break grind.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1400, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1509, 1.1534
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1534 broken shelf would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14545 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1377 measured tgt
H4 closes back above the ema20 near 1.1509 would be the first sign the impulse is stalling; RSI at 31 shows the move is stretched
EZ/German PPI Fri 06:00 GMT and post-FOMC Fed commentary are the near-term catalysts that could reshape this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg then pause · RSI 31 · price 1.14786
Lower highs and lower lows; range floor broken.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 1.1654 through 1.1597 and 1.1556 resolved lower, with one wide bar slicing the 1.1527-1.1535 range floor and extending to 1.14545 — the sharpest H4 range in the window and a clear ATR(14) expansion. That leg fits the USD-repricing story in the digest, with the dollar reclaiming ground as Fed pricing and safe-haven flows turned back its way. Price has since gone flat in a four-bar consolidation between 1.14545 and 1.14832, holding well below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain stacked bearishly above spot.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1530, 1.15562
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14545 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1430 psych area
An H4 close back above the 1.15300 broken floor would invalidate the range break read
Repeated rejection at the 1.14832 prior high keeps the consolidation capped
US CPI is the next scheduled driver and could materially reprice this leg