EUR/USD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Thursday, 17 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Range top rejected, five-session decline · RSI 36 · price 1.14756
Lower highs from the 1.1711 cycle high; price back below EMA20 and EMA50.
The four-month picture is a broad 1.1320–1.1711 range, and the upper edge has now been rejected: after two daily closes stalling around the 1.1711 cycle high, EUR/USD has printed five consecutive down days and sliced through both EMA20 (1.1571) and EMA50 (1.1557), turning the mid-1.1500s into a broken pivot at 1.1545. The trigger was the hawkish Fed hike mid-week, reinforced by strong US retail sales and claims while German ZEW collapsed to 25.8 — the move has carried price to 1.1476, right on the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1324–1.1711 advance. RSI(14) at ~36 is falling but not yet at the sub-30 readings that have marked prior D1 bottoms, with the June swing low at 1.1450 the first structural shelf underneath.
Support: 1.1450, 1.1400, 1.1355
Resistance: 1.1545, 1.1571, 1.1711
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1450 swing low exposes the 1.1400 psych handle and the 1.1355 prior low
A daily close back above the 1.1545 broken pivot and EMA20 at 1.1571 would negate the five-session decline
Eurozone/German PPI and the 23 Sep HCOB flash PMIs are the next data tests of the growth narrative after the ZEW miss
ATR(14) near 47 pips means single-day extensions of this size are normal and not in themselves structural breaks
Lower highs from 1.1711, range floor at 1.1550 broken.
The February rally into 1.1711 has rounded over: successive daily highs at 1.1654, 1.1556 and 1.1483 have stepped lower and the last three sessions took out the 1.1550 broken floor that had contained the pair for roughly six weeks. Price now sits at 1.14697, below both EMA20 (1.1568) and EMA50 (1.1561) with the two averages converging, and the drop has also cut through the 61.8% retracement (1.1490) of the 1.1353–1.1711 advance — this is a USD-repricing leg rather than a euro story, with the dollar finding a bid after the post-NFP dovish move was pared. RSI at 34 is soft but not yet at the sub-30 readings that marked the January base.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1400, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1565, 1.1654
What it said to watch
Daily close back above 1.1550 would negate the range break
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 near 1.1565 would confirm the swing-trend flip
Failure to hold the 1.14545 bar low opens the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1353 swing low
US CPI is the next scheduled USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1711, range floor broken, fresh lower low.
The July-August advance topped at the 1.1711 window high in mid-August, then decayed through a chain of lower highs, the last of them the 1.1654 prior high in early September. The past four sessions have cut roughly 200 pips, breaking the 1.1570-1.1680 range floor and closing the pair below both EMA20 and the 1.1561 ema50, which is now flattening; RSI(14) at 33 is the weakest reading of the window and price sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1353-1.1711 leg. The move is USD repricing rather than a euro story — Eurozone releases have been second-order to US inflation and labour data all quarter.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1377, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1561, 1.1654, 1.1711
What it said to watch
A daily close back above the 1.1561 ema50 would neutralise the lower-high sequence off 1.1711
Acceptance below the 1.1455 recent low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1377 july base
EMA20 is converging on the ema50 from above; a cross would confirm the weekly-cycle turn
US inflation data remains the dominant catalyst for USD repricing and could reshape this read within a week