The week's dominant move came in one bar: the hawkish Fed hike on Wednesday's NY session dropped EUR/USD ~65 pips through the 1.1530 breakdown shelf that had contained Monday-Wednesday chop, extending to a 1.14545 week low in the Asia hours that followed. Since then price has coiled in a 1.1455-1.14975 band with rising lows, ATR compressing under 10 pips and RSI(14) back to the mid-40s/50 from oversold. Price is pinned on a flattening EMA(20) around 1.1477, while EMA(50) near 1.1500 caps the recovery and the descending lower-high line off Monday's 1.1595 high still slopes down.
Support: 1.1477, 1.14545, 1.1440
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1530
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 day high would break the consolidation ceiling and put the 1.1530 breakdown level back in play
Loss of the 1.14545 week low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1440 psych area
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision pre-London fall in the next bar window and could reprice this range
Lower highs all week, now a tight post-Fed base above 1.1455.
Price has ground lower since Monday's Asia open at 1.1590, capped by a clean series of lower highs, before the hawkish Fed hike snapped the 1.1530s pre-fed base with a 65-pip hourly bar in late Wednesday NY hours and printed the week low at 1.14545. Thursday's London and NY sessions produced only a shallow repair: two pushes into 1.14975 (day high) were absorbed and price has coiled in a 20-pip band pinned to the flat EMA20 near 1.1479, with RSI(14) recovering off post-Fed lows to the mid-40s. The range floor at 1.1473 has held every dip since the London session, leaving the week's dominant impulse intact but unextended.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.14975, 1.1535
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14975 (day high) would break the post-Fed consolidation ceiling and put 1.1535 pre-fed base back in play
Loss of the 1.1473 range floor and then 1.14545 week low confirms continuation toward the 1.1435 next shelf
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision pre-London Friday are near-term catalysts that could break this coil
Price recapturing and holding above the EMA20 at 1.1479 would be the first sign the week's lower-high sequence is stalling
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after the FOMC break · RSI 47 · price 1.14789
Week of lower highs, then a post-break base of higher lows capped at 1.14975.
EUR/USD ground sideways-to-lower through Monday to Wednesday in a series of lower highs off the 1.1597 weekly open area, until Wednesday's hawkish FOMC hike drove a 75-pip single-hour drop in the NY session and printed the week low at 1.14545. Thursday has been repair work: higher lows across London and NY, price pinned to the H1 ema20 near 1.1476 with the 1.14700 psych area holding each dip, while the 1.14975 range top capped two attempts. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-40s from oversold and EMA50 still sits roughly 25 pips overhead, leaving the pre-FOMC prior base at 1.1530 untested.
Support: 1.1476, 1.1470, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1530
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.14975 range top would end the post-FOMC consolidation read
Loss of the 1.14545 week low confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1435 area in focus
Failure to hold the ema20 / 1.14700 psych zone would flatten the higher-lows sequence
BoJ decision pre-London and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT Friday could reset this range
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening after the break · RSI 44 · price 1.14756
Lower highs since Monday's open, sideways base since Wednesday's FOMC drop.
The week opened near 1.1594 and every session since has printed a lower high, with the decisive leg coming in Wednesday's NY session when the hawkish Fed hike knocked price 65 pips lower in a single bar to 1.1470. Since then EURUSD has gone sideways in a 1.14545–1.14975 band, with the day low at 1.1456 holding and the 1.1480 EMA20 capping the London and NY attempts higher; RSI(14) has recovered from post-FOMC lows to 43.6 without reclaiming 50. Price is sitting mid-range at 1.1476 into the late NY hours, a few pips under EMA20.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14975, 1.1545
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.1480 ema20 and then 1.14975 day high would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.14545 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.1435 range base
BoJ decision plus Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production on Friday are the near-term catalysts for this consolidation
Repeated failure at 1.1480 while holding 1.1473 keeps the post-FOMC base intact
The dominant move of the week was a single ~75-pip vertical bar during NY hours on Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike, which broke the 1.1535 pre-fomc base and dumped price to a 1.14545 week low. Since then EUR/USD has gone sideways in a 1.14545–1.14975 band, printing higher lows into 1.14680 while the 1.14975 day high capped Thursday's NY attempt; today's firm US claims and Philly Fed kept the recovery contained. Price is pinned just under the flattening ema20 at 1.14807 with RSI(14) back at 44 from post-FOMC oversold levels.
Support: 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14807, 1.14975, 1.15345
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 day high would extend the recovery off the week low and put the ema20 behind price
Failure to hold 1.14680 and then the 1.14545 week low confirms continuation of the post-FOMC leg
BoJ decision, Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production on Friday could materially shift this read
Only reclaiming the 1.15345 pre-fomc base would undo the range break
Post-FOMC lower low, four-day sequence of lower highs, now basing.
The week's dominant move was a single-bar break: the FOMC hour on Wednesday evening broker time sliced the 1.1505–1.1556 prior range and ran to 1.14545, the week low, after the hawkish hike and dot plot. Since then price has spent the whole of Thursday's Asia-through-NY sessions carving a 1.14545–1.14975 base, with the 1.14975 day high set in the first hours of NY and a swing low at 1.1467 holding on the way back down. Firm US data today (claims 196K, Philly Fed 37.8) kept the recovery capped and price is now pinned just under EMA20 at 1.1481 with RSI(14) back at mid-40s.
Support: 1.1467, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14975, 1.1505
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 day high would break Thursday's sequence of lower highs; the prior range floor at 1.1505 is the next reference above
Reclaiming and holding EMA20 near 1.1481 is the first condition for the post-FOMC downside break to lose grip
Failure to hold 1.1467 swing low and then the 1.14545 week low confirms a fresh lower low, opening the 1.1435 area
BoJ decision, Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) on Friday all land inside the next bar period and could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 44 · price 1.14756
Lower highs since Monday's open; post-FOMC range 1.1455–1.1497 with higher lows building since Thursday's low.
Every session since Monday's open has printed lower highs, and the 1.1527–1.1556 mid-week range broke violently lower in the 18:00 GMT hour Wednesday on the Fed's hawkish hike and dot plot, a single bar covering roughly 75 pips into 1.1470. Thursday has been pure repair work: a 1.1455–1.1497 range with higher lows off 1.14545, capped twice in the NY session at the 1.14975 range top. Price is back under EMA20 at 1.1481 with RSI(14) near 44, so the bounce has yet to reclaim the mean.
Support: 1.1470, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.14975, 1.15274
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14975 range top would end the post-FOMC consolidation read; 1.15274 pre-fomc low is the next reference
Failure to hold 1.14700 range base re-opens 1.14545 week low, and loss of that exposes the 1.1435 psych area
Acceptance back above the 1.14810 ema20 would flatten the lower-highs sequence
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT Friday) fall in the next bar window and can reset this range
Sequence of lower highs since Monday, now basing in a 45-pip post-flush range with marginal higher lows.
The dominant move of the week was a single-hour flush during the Fed decision, which broke the 1.1530 prior range and dumped EURUSD 65 pips to 1.1455 as the hawkish dot shift lifted front-end US yields. Since then price has consolidated in a 1.1455–1.1497 band across the Asia and London sessions, reclaiming EMA20 near 1.1474 while EMA50 around 1.1500 still caps the recovery. RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-50s from oversold after the flush, and today's NY session has probed the 1.14975 day high twice without closing above it.
Support: 1.14735, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1505, 1.1530
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14975 day high, then 1.15050 psych, would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14545 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1435 next support area
Loss of EMA20 near 1.14735 on a closing basis invalidates the higher-lows base inside the range
BoJ decision, Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production 13:15 GMT Friday can reprice the dollar leg of this range
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the low · RSI 51 · price 1.14889
Post-FOMC break lower, now basing with higher lows.
The week's dominant move was a single-bar collapse through 1.1500 in the NY session after the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike, taking price from a 1.1530s shelf to a 1.14545 week low with no meaningful retracement since. The last twenty bars have consolidated in a 1.1455–1.1495 band, printing higher lows into today's London-NY transition, and the close at 1.14889 is the first reclaim of the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1483 since the break. RSI(14) has cycled back to 51 from oversold, but price remains well below EMA(50) around 1.1503, so the corrective structure sits inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 1.1483, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1505, 1.1530
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.14954 day high, then the 1.1505 range top, would neutralise the post-FOMC downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1483 ema20 puts the 1.14545 week low back in play, with 1.1435 the next reference below
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production Friday, plus the BoJ decision, are the nearest catalysts that could break this consolidation
Post-FOMC impulse leg down, now basing with higher lows under 1.1500.
The week's dominant move was a single hour: the hawkish Fed hike and firmer dots on Wednesday's NY session drove EUR/USD through 1.1500 and the pre-fomc 1.1535 shelf in a ~75 pip H1 bar, extending a five-session slide from 1.1615. Since Thursday's Asia low at 1.14545 the pair has built a shallow series of higher lows, reclaiming EMA(20) around 1.1473 and pushing this session's high to 1.14954, with RSI(14) recovering from oversold back to the 50s. Price remains beneath EMA(50) near 1.1500, so the recovery is still contained inside the post-FOMC consolidation.
Support: 1.1473, 1.14545, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500, 1.1535
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1500 round number and then 1.1535 pre-fomc shelf would neutralise the downtrend read
Loss of 1.14545 week low confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 1.1435 pivot floor
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.1473 would put the higher-lows sequence back in question
BoJ decision and Fed's Bowman plus US Industrial Production on Friday could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the base · RSI 53 · price 1.14921
Post-Fed impulse leg lower, higher lows since yesterday's low.
The dominant move of the week was Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike, which dropped EUR/USD out of the 1.1535 area to 1.14545 in a single hour and left the week low intact. Thursday's Asia and London sessions built a 1.1455-1.1483 base with progressively higher lows, and the first hour of the NY session has pushed price through the base top at 1.1483 to a 1.14954 session high, with RSI(14) back to ~53 from the post-Fed washout. EMA(50) near 1.1504 and the 1.1500 round number sit immediately above, the same cluster price lost on the FOMC.
Support: 1.1483, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500, 1.15449
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1500 round number would put the 1.15449 pre-fed high — the level that ends the week's lower-high sequence — into range
Loss of the 1.1483 base top on a closing basis returns the read to the Thursday range, with the 1.14545 week low the reference below
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.1468 invalidates the rising-low sequence built since yesterday
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow, plus the BoJ decision, are the near-term event risk for this structure
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling after post-Fed leg · RSI 53 · price 1.14921
Series of lower highs since Monday; two-day base 1.1455-1.1495 under broken 1.1500.
The dominant move of this week was Wednesday's post-Fed break: EUR/USD lost the 1.1530 pre-fed base in a single hour on the hawkish 25bp hike and steeper dots, then spent Thursday's Asia and London sessions basing between the 1.14545 week low and 1.1483. Price has since edged back above the ema20 near 1.1483 and the first hour of NY marked a 1.14954 session high, with RSI(14) climbing from the high-20s at the break to roughly 53. The 1.1462 range floor has absorbed each retest, while the 1.1500 round number caps the recovery and remains the top of the post-break band.
Support: 1.1483, 1.1462, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500, 1.1530
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1500 round number would break the run of lower highs off Monday
Failure to hold the 1.1462 range floor and then the 1.14545 week low would confirm a lower low
Pullbacks losing the 1.1483 ema20 on a closing basis would reinstate the post-Fed downside sequence
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production on Friday could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in a post-FOMC base · RSI 41 · price 1.14727
Lower highs into a 30-pip basing range below broken support.
The whole window is a stair-step lower from 1.1615, with the decisive move coming in a single NY-session hour at the FOMC decision: a 75-pip candle sliced the 1.15300 break level and printed 1.14545, the hawkish hike and dots doing the work while final Eurozone HICP landed exactly in line and gave EUR nothing. Since then price has flatlined in a ~30-pip band between the 1.14620 range base and the 1.14832 range high across Asia and into the following London/NY hours, with rallies repeatedly capped at the 1.14800 ema20. RSI(14) has recovered from 26 to ~41 without price reclaiming the ema20 — a pause in the sequence rather than a turn, and the 1.1450 psych level sits just under the fomc low.
Support: 1.1462, 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14832, 1.1530
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.14832 range high and the 1.14800 ema20 would end the post-FOMC base and open the 1.15300 break level
Loss of the 1.14545 fomc low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1450 psych
US initial claims and Philly Fed, then EZ PPI, are the prints capable of breaking this range in the next sessions
Lower highs all week, now a tight post-FOMC consolidation below EMA20.
The damage was done in a single bar during Wednesday's NY session, when the hawkish Fed hike and dots knocked EUR/USD 75 pips lower, through 1.1500 and the pre-FOMC 1.1535 base that had capped every rally since Monday. Price has since gone flat, holding a 1.1455–1.1483 band for roughly 18 hours, with the range low at 1.14545 and the range top at 1.14832 both tested twice. RSI(14) has repaired to the mid-40s but EMA20 sits at 1.1480 and Thursday's session high stalled precisely there, leaving the week's sequence of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1500, 1.1535
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.14832 range top, and through ema20, invalidates the consolidation read and puts 1.1500 psych back in play
Loss of the 1.14545 range low and the 1.1450 shelf would confirm continuation of the week's lower-low sequence
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT and the post-claims yield reaction are the near-term drivers while EZ data is thin
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after the Fed drop · RSI 40 · price 1.14694
Lower highs all week, then a tight ~28 pip base above the 1.1455 week low.
Price has ground lower through every session since Monday's open near 1.1594, with the decisive leg coming in the NY session yesterday: the hawkish Fed hike and steeper dots drove a single-bar break of the 1.1500 psych level down to 1.1470. Since then EUR/USD has flatlined in a 1.1455-1.1483 band through Asia and into London, with EMA(20) rolling over at 1.1480 and capping the last four attempts at the range top. RSI(14) has recovered off its post-Fed low to roughly 40 and price remains under both the EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.1503.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 GMT land inside the next bar and can resolve the 1.1455-1.1483 range either way
An H1 close above the 1.14832 range top and EMA(20) would be the first break of this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14545 week low and the 1.1450 round number confirms continuation, with 1.1377 the next reference lower
Reclaiming 1.1500 psych would invalidate the post-Fed breakout read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a post-event range · RSI 27 · price 1.14694
Lower highs all week, now flat 1.1455-1.1483 base after the FOMC gap lower.
The week opened near 1.1594 and every session since has printed lower highs, with the decisive break coming in the NY session yesterday when the hawkish Fed dots dropped price 75 pips in one hour through 1.1500 and into 1.1455. Since then H1 has gone flat: seventeen bars inside 1.14545-1.14832, with the range top and EMA(20) at 1.14810 capping the last two pushes and the range low holding on three tests. RSI(14) at 27 is still carrying the impulse-bar damage rather than reflecting fresh selling, and price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14832, 1.1481, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next H1 bar and can break this range either way
Hourly close above the 1.14832 range top and EMA(20) would end the sequence of lower highs and expose the 1.1500 round number
Failure to hold 1.14545 range low confirms continuation and puts the 1.1450 psych area in play
A higher low forming above 1.1457 while RSI lifts off 27 would mark the first bullish divergence of the week
Lower highs, lower lows; tight 1.1455-1.1483 range since the drop.
EURUSD has ground lower all week from Monday's 1.1594 open, with the decisive leg a ~65-pip slide late in the NY session Wednesday that cut through the 1.1530 breakdown shelf — a USD-repricing move rather than a EUR story per the macro read. Price has coiled in a tight 1.1455-1.1483 band since, capped repeatedly by the range top at 1.14832 and EMA(20) at 1.1480, with RSI(14) near 38 lifting off the post-drop trough but no reclaim of the broken shelf. The week low at 1.14545 sits just above the 1.1450 round number and has held twice through the Asia and early London hours.
Support: 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14805, 1.14832, 1.15302
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14832 range top and EMA(20) at 1.1480 would end the post-drop consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.14545 week low confirms a lower low with the 1.1450 round number immediately beneath
A push back to the 1.1530 breakdown level would be the first repair of the week's lower-highs sequence
Macro read keeps US inflation-driven USD repricing as the dominant catalyst; a print in the next sessions could reset this range