EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 17 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Flat, post-NY drift · RSI 51 · price 1.14766
Tight late-session range under lower highs.
The NY-session pop to the 1.14975 ny high was rejected and fully retraced, leaving price back in the mid-1.1470s with the dollar holding its post-Fed footing. Last four hours are a 1.14728–1.14806 coil on ATR of ~2.4 pips and RSI(14) near 51 — no structure in play into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1467
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14806 micro high would end the late-session coil; the 1.14842 prior high is the next reference
Loss of the 1.14728 session low exposes the 1.14670 swing low
German PPI at 06:00 UTC lands mid-Asia/pre-London and could break this range
23:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 48 · price 1.14778
Tight consolidation inside the lower half of the NY range.
NY hours rejected 1.1497 and bled back into a 1.1473–1.1480 box that has held for roughly six hours, with volume collapsing into the rollover and Asia open — post-FOMC dollar firmness kept the day's high capped near the 1.1485 area. RSI(14) at 48 and ATR(14) of under 4 pips confirm a dormant tape; no structural development while the range holds.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1485, 1.1497
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1480 range top puts 1.1485 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.1473 range low exposes the 1.1468 swing low
BoJ decision ahead of the London open and German PPI at 06:00 UTC can break this consolidation quickly
ATR under 4 pips means Asia-hours breaks of the box can be shallow and fail
23:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.14778
Lower highs from 1.1497 into a tight late-session range.
EUR/USD was rejected at the 1.1497 session high during NY hours — the post-FOMC USD bid capped the move — and has since compressed into a 1.1473–1.1481 range for the last eight hours. ATR(14) at ~3.6 pips and RSI(14) near 48 confirm a dead tape in the thin Asia open; no structure in play at 1.14778.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.1497
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1481 range top re-opens the 1.1497 session high
Loss of the 1.1473 range floor exposes the 1.1468 ny low
BoJ decision pre-London and German PPI at 06:00 UTC can break this range within hours
London lifted price off the 1.14557 asia low into a 1.14975 day high at the NY open, where it was rejected and gave back roughly 20 pips. The last four hours have compressed into a 1.14730–1.14806 range with ATR(14) down to ~3.6 pips and RSI(14) mid-40s — post-FOMC digestion, nothing structural in play.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 range top would end the late-session compression
Loss of the 1.14730 range floor re-opens the 1.14680 london low
BoJ decision pre-London and German PPI at 06:00 UTC land before the next active session and could reset this range
22:46 UTC
Flat, momentum stalled · RSI 49 · price 1.14768
Tight range under lower highs after NY fade.
NY session rejected 1.14975 (ny high) and price has spent the last eight hours pinned in a 1.14728–1.14806 band, with the post-FOMC firm dollar capping every push higher. Volume has thinned into the early Asia hours and ATR is down near 4 pips — a dead range, no structure in play.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 range top would end the eight-hour range and put 1.14975 ny high back in play
Loss of the 1.14728 range floor exposes 1.14680 swing low, then the 1.14557 asia low
BoJ decision ahead of the London open is the near-term dollar-side risk to this range read
22:31 UTC
Sideways, mild downward drift after NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 1.1476
Lower high at 1.1498, then eight-hour balance between 1.1473 and 1.1481.
London lifted price off the 1.1456 asian low and NY tagged 1.1498 before the rejection dragged it back to 1.1473, where it has balanced for the last eight hours in a 1.1473–1.1481 shell — dollar tone still set by Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike. ATR(14) at 2.7 pips and RSI(14) near 47 confirm a dead late-session tape with volume collapsing into the rollover.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1456, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.1485, 1.1498
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1473 range floor reopens the 1.1456 asian low and the 1.1435 psych level
Close above 1.1481 range top puts the 1.1485 intraday res and the 1.1498 ny high back in play
BoJ decision before the London open and German PPI at 06:00 UTC can break this balance abruptly
22:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 51 · price 1.14762
Lower highs from 1.14975, price compressed into a 1.14728–1.14806 range.
NY session rejected the 1.14975 day high and bled back into a 1.14728–1.14806 range, where the last ten bars have gone nowhere on collapsing early-Asia volume. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 3.5 pips — the post-FOMC dollar bid stalled rather than extended.
Support: 1.14728, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 range high would break the sequence of lower highs from the day high
Loss of the 1.14728 range low puts the 1.14680 swing low back in play
German PPI 06:00 UTC and the BoJ decision ahead of the London open can reprice this range quickly
22:01 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.14751
Balanced 8-pip range under the NY high, lower highs since 1.14975.
NY session printed a rejection at 1.14975 and bled back into a 1.1473–1.14806 range that has held through the post-close lull; last bars are near-zero volume with price pinned either side of EMA20. ATR(14) is just 3.6 pips — nothing structural in play, the post-FOMC USD bid has simply stalled rather than extended.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.1485, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 range top, then 1.1485 intraday cap, would end the balance read
Loss of the 1.1473 range low exposes the 1.1468 swing low
BoJ decision pre-London and German PPI at 06:00 UTC are the first liquidity events that could break this range
21:46 UTC
Drifting lower off NY high, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 1.14736
Lower highs from 1.1498 into a tight late-session range.
EURUSD topped at 1.14975 in the NY morning and has since carved lower highs, spending the last six hours boxed between 1.1473 and 1.1481 with volume collapsing into the post-NY close. Price sits on the range floor, below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) mid-40s — USD firmness after the hawkish Fed dots is still the backdrop, but this is thin-liquidity drift, not fresh direction.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.1485, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below 1.14730 range floor would expose the 1.14680 swing low
Reclaim of 1.14806 range top is needed to break the lower-highs chain from the 1.14975 ny high
BoJ decision pre-London and German PPI at 06:00 UTC could reset this range read
21:31 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.14757
Tight range 1.1473–1.1480 following lower highs from the NY high.
NY session pushed to 1.1497 before rejection there, and price has since spent the last six hours boxed between the session low at 1.1473 and the micro high at 1.1481, with ATR compressed to under 3 pips into the late NY–Asia handover. RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned to EMA20 — the post-FOMC USD firmness has stalled rather than extended intraday.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.1497
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1481 would break the range top and re-expose 1.1497
Loss of 1.1473 puts the london low at 1.1468 back in play
BoJ decision pre-London and German PPI at 06:00 UTC could break this compression
Post-NY-high pullback stalling in a tight late-session range.
NY session peaked at 1.14975 and was rejected, then price bled back into a 1.14731–1.14806 band that has held for the last eight hours, with sellers marking successive lower highs off the session high. Volatility has collapsed into the rollover — ATR(14) at ~2.7 pips, RSI(14) mid-40s, price pinned just under EMA20 and EMA50; no structural setup in play while the dollar sits on its post-FOMC gains.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14832, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 1.14806 breaks the chain of lower highs off the session high and re-exposes the london high at 1.14832
Loss of the 1.14731 range base confirms continuation toward 1.14680 swing low
BoJ decision pre-London plus Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT can reset this range on the next session open
NY session pushed to 1.14975 before being rejected, and price has since coiled into a 1.14732–1.14806 band with RSI(14) back at ~50 and price pinned to EMA20. Late-NY bars are thin and ATR(14) has compressed to ~3.4 pips, consistent with the consolidation the market context flags after five USD-positive sessions post-hawkish Fed.
Support: 1.14732, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14848, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14806 range top would reopen the 1.14848 swing high and the 1.14975 ny high
Loss of the 1.14732 range low exposes the 1.14680 swing low and confirms continuation of the lower-highs sequence
BoJ decision pre-London plus US Industrial Production later Friday can break this compressed range
20:46 UTC
Sideways after NY pullback · RSI 52 · price 1.14774
Lower high off 1.1497, now balanced in a tight late-session range.
The NY push to 1.1497 was rejected mid-session and price has since bled back into a 1.1473–1.1481 range that has held for roughly six hours, with the final bars thin into the close. Consolidation matches the post-Fed picture of a stretched EUR after five down sessions; ATR(14) at ~3 pips shows how compressed the late-NY tape is.
Support: 1.1473, 1.1468, 1.1465
Resistance: 1.1481, 1.1497
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1481 range top re-opens the 1.1497 day high
Loss of the 1.1473 range base exposes the 1.1468 swing low and the 1.1465 asia low
BoJ decision pre-London plus US Industrial Production are the next catalysts and can void this range read
20:31 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 1.14749
Full retrace of the NY leg; 1.14732–1.14806 range holding into late NY.
The NY leg up from 1.14680 to a 1.14975 session high — helped by the strong US claims and Philly Fed prints keeping the dollar bid — was fully retraced by the European close, with rejection at 1.14975 and a chain of lower highs into 1.14806. Last four hours have been pinned in an 8-pip band between the 1.14732 range floor and the 1.14806 range top, RSI(14) at 46 and ATR compressed to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.14732, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14806 range top ends the post-spike fade and re-opens 1.14842 prior high
Loss of the 1.14732 range floor exposes the 1.14680 swing low
Thin late-NY conditions; BoJ decision pre-London Friday can reset the range on the open
Lower highs off 1.14975, now coiling 1.1473–1.1481.
The London–NY leg carried EUR/USD from 1.14670 to a session high of 1.14975 before rejection into the NY afternoon, with a firm dollar post-hawkish Fed capping the advance. Last five hours have compressed into a 1.1473–1.1481 range on a 3.6-pip ATR, price pressing the range top at 1.14806 into the close with RSI(14) mid-band at 53.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14806, 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14806 range top puts 1.14842 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.14731 range floor confirms a lower low and exposes 1.14680 swing low
Late-session liquidity thinning; BoJ decision pre-London Friday can gap this range read
20:01 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 1.14791
Late-NY consolidation inside 1.1473-1.1480 following rejection of the session high.
The NY session pushed to 1.14975 before the move was rejected and unwound back to 1.14733, and price has since coiled in a 7-pip band between the 1.14733 range base and the 1.14800 range top with ATR compressed to under 4 pips. RSI(14) is mid-50s and price sits above EMA20 but marginally below EMA50 — no directional structure into the Asia handover, with the post-FOMC dollar bid still framing the wider picture.
Support: 1.14733, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14858, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14800 range top would put the 1.14858 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.14733 range base reopens the 1.14680 swing low
Thin late-NY liquidity into Asia; BoJ decision and Fed's Bowman on Friday could reset this range read
Lower highs off 1.14975 into a tight late-NY range.
NY hours pushed to a session high of 1.14975 before the whole advance was handed back as the dollar held its hawkish-Fed footing, helped by firm US claims and Philly Fed prints. The last three hours are a 1.14731–1.14790 range with price parked on the 50% retracement of the Asia-low-to-NY-high leg, RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) down to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.14731, 1.1467, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.14875, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14790 range top would end the lower-high sequence off the session high
Loss of the 1.14731 range floor exposes the 1.14670 london low
Late-NY compression into thin Asia hours means the range can break on little flow
BoJ decision and Fed's Bowman on Friday are the next catalysts that could reset this range
Lower highs off 1.14975, now coiled in a 6-pip late-NY band.
NY session spiked to a 1.14975 session high on the US data batch (claims 196K beat, housing soft) then rejected, unwinding the entire leg back to the 78.6% retracement area. Last eight bars are pinned in a 1.14733–1.14790 band with ATR(14) down to ~4.6 pips and RSI(14) near 31 — no structural setup in play into the close.
Support: 1.14733, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.1486, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14733 range base exposes the 1.14680 swing low, with 1.14557 asian low as the wider base
Reclaim of the 1.14790 range top is needed before the 1.14860 prior high and 1.14975 session high come back into play
Asia reopen plus Friday's BoJ decision and Eurozone PPI could reset this late-NY range
Lower highs off 1.1497, now compressed above session low.
The NY morning push stalled at 1.14975 and price has bled back in a lower-high chain, with beats on jobless claims and Philly Fed keeping the dollar firm post-FOMC. Last ten bars are pinned in a 4-pip band above the 1.14736 session low, ATR(14) down to ~4 pips — nothing structural in play into the late NY hours.
Support: 1.14736, 1.1466, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14845, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14736 session low reopens the 1.14660 swing low
M15 close back above 1.14845 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset the intraday range
NY session drove up to a session high of 1.14975 after the firm claims (196K) and Philly Fed (37.8) prints, then faded roughly 21 pips into a flat 1.14736–1.14790 range over the last two hours. RSI(14) has cooled to 45 with price marginally under both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 4 pips as flow thins after the London close.
Support: 1.14736, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.14858, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14790 range top would break the lower-high sequence and re-expose the 1.14858 prior swing
Loss of the 1.14736 range floor confirms a lower low and puts the 1.14680 swing low in play, with 1.14557 asia low the next reference
Fed's Bowman speech and US Industrial Production in the coming session are the next scheduled catalysts for this range
18:01 UTC
Lower highs since the NY high, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.14763
Post-rejection fade now coiling in a 4-pip range late NY.
London lifted EURUSD off the 1.14545 Asian low and NY extended to 1.14975 before the move was rejected, leaving a clean lower-high chain (1.14845, then 1.14798) as the hawkish-Fed dollar bid reasserted itself. Last two hours are a 1.14736–1.14780 coil under an EMA20 near 1.14800, RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) down to roughly 5 pips — a late-NY drift, no structure in play.
Support: 1.14736, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14845, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14800 ema20 and the 1.14845 lower high breaks the fade structure
Loss of the 1.14736 session low reopens the 1.14680 london low
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production overnight could reset this range before Asia
17:31 UTC
Lower highs since NY high, momentum flat · RSI 34 · price 1.14756
Post-rejection pullback compressing into a tight late-NY range.
The NY rally off 1.14680 stalled at the 1.14975 ny high and has bled back in a lower-high chain, with the hawkish Fed hold on the dollar keeping EUR heavy after the soft final HICP print. Last seven bars are pinned in a 4-pip band above the 1.14736 session low, price under EMA20 (~1.1482), RSI(14) at 34 and ATR(14) just 5.3 pips — no structure in play late in the NY session.
Support: 1.14736, 1.1468, 1.14622
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14845, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14800 (ema20) breaks the lower high sequence off 1.14845
Loss of the 1.14736 session low exposes 1.14680 ny swing low, then 1.14622 london low
Reclaim of 1.14975 ny high would negate the post-rejection pullback
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production Friday could reset the intraday range
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 1.14752
Lower highs off the NY high, price compressing at range lows.
Yesterday's hawkish Fed print drove the 1.1545-to-1.1462 leg that framed this window; today's NY attempt at 1.14975 was rejected and fully retraced. Price now sits on the 1.14736 session base with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) around 5.6 pips — a sequence of lower highs from 1.14825 with range compression into the last hours of NY.
Support: 1.14736, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14825, 1.14975
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.14736 session base exposes the 1.14680 swing low and then the 1.14545 asia low
Reclaim of the 1.14825 lower high would negate the fade from the ny high
Continued 4-6 pip bars means the late-NY range read holds; expansion beyond ATR invalidates it
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset this intraday range
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY high rejection · RSI 37 · price 1.14756
Lower highs since 1.14975, flat base at 1.1474/1.1478.
Post-FOMC drop from 1.15009 set the Asia low at 1.14545; London and early NY reclaimed ground to a 1.14975 ny high, where supply capped twice and the pair faded back under the ema20 at 1.1482. Late NY hours are flat between 1.1474 and 1.1478 with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips — compressed, no fresh structure yet.
Support: 1.1474, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.14975, 1.15009
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1474 session low confirms a lower low toward the 1.1468 swing low
M15 close back above the 1.1482 ema20 would put the 1.14975 ny high back in play
Asia-session illiquidity into Friday's BoJ decision can distort this compressed range
London built a recovery off 1.14545 into a 1.14954/1.14975 double top, and NY hours have rejected it — price has bled back to 1.1477 under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41. Last four bars are compressed in a 4-pip band above the session low at 1.14739; ATR(14) at 5.5 pips shows a dead late-NY tape.
Support: 1.14739, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14825, 1.14915, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14739 session low exposes the 1.14680 swing low
Reclaiming 1.14825 ema20 would negate the lower-high sequence
Only a push back through 1.14975 session high revives the London recovery leg
BoJ decision and US Industrial Production Friday are the next scheduled catalysts for this pair
16:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY high rejection · RSI 38 · price 1.14769
Lower highs from 1.14975, session low 1.14746 still intact.
The window opens with the hawkish Fed drop from 1.1545 into 1.1500, an Asia base at 1.14545 and a London-into-NY recovery that stalled at the 1.14975 NY high, with firm US claims and Philly Fed keeping the dollar bid. Price has since bled back under the 1.1482 EMA20 in a chain of lower highs and is now coiling in 3-pip bars just above the 1.14746 session low, which coincides with the london ascent line; RSI(14) near 38, ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.14746, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.14975
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14746 breaks the london ascent line and exposes 1.1468 prior low
Reclaiming 1.1482 ema20 would be the first sign the lower-high sequence is failing, with 1.14975 ny high above
Loss of 1.14545 asian low would confirm continuation of the post-FOMC leg
BoJ decision overnight and US Industrial Production tomorrow can reset this intraday range
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.14781
Lower highs off the NY high, price compressing above session low.
The window opens with the hawkish Fed hit — the 18:00 UTC bar dumped 45 pips from 1.15449 to 1.15009 — after which price based through Asia above 1.14545 and London ground back up to a 1.14975 NY high. That high was rejected and the last two hours have carved lower highs into a tight 1.14746–1.14798 consolidation, RSI(14) at 36 with ATR near 6 pips as late-NY liquidity thins.
Support: 1.14746, 1.1468, 1.14622
Resistance: 1.14842, 1.14975
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above 1.14842 (ema20) breaks the lower-high chain built off the ny high
Loss of 1.14746 (session low) puts the 1.14680 london low back in play
Reclaim of 1.14975 would be the first higher high since the post-Fed drop
Fed's Bowman 07:30 GMT and BoJ overnight are the next dollar-side catalysts for this range
Post-FOMC base at 1.1455 gave a rising sequence into 1.14975; since 14:00 UTC lower highs and lower lows, price back under EMA20.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike is still the driver of this window — the 18:00 UTC bar dumped 90 pips to a post-fed low at 1.14545, and the grind back up stalled at 1.14975 just under the 1.1500 round number early in the NY session. Four consecutive lower closes since 14:00 UTC have pushed price back below the EMA20 at 1.1485, RSI(14) near 36, ATR(14) only ~7.5 pips.
Support: 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.1485, 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1468 (london low) confirms a lower low and reopens 1.14545
Reclaim of the 1.1485 ema20 would negate the NY lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman and the BoJ decision overnight could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday recovery rolling over, lower highs into late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.1477
Today's NY range 1.1468–1.1497, price fading back to the lower half after rejection at the highs.
Yesterday's 18:00 Fed decision knocked the pair from 1.1545 to 1.1467 in three bars; NY today rebuilt from the 1.1468 session low to 1.1497 before rejection at the highs, and the last six bars are a clean lower-high chain back to 1.1477. RSI(14) at 36 with ATR ~6.6 pips — the recovery leg has given back most of its ground while the overnight low at 1.1457 remains untested.
Support: 1.1468, 1.1457, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1483, 1.1497, 1.1505
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1468 session low confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1457 overnight low back in play, with 1.1435 the next range base
Reclaim of 1.1483 london high invalidates the lower-high sequence; 1.1497 session high and the 1.1505 resist zone cap above
BoJ decision, Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production overnight could reset this intraday range
The post-Fed slide bottomed at 1.14545 late in the Asia session and London/early NY ground price back to a session high of 1.14975, where supply capped it just under the 1.1500 round number. The last four bars have printed lower highs and price has slipped back under the EMA20 at 1.14837, though the 1.1468 swing low still holds the higher-low chain intact; ATR(14) is a thin 8 pips.
Support: 1.1474, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14837, 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14837 (ema20) would re-engage the 1.14975 session high
Loss of the 1.1468 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built off the post-fed low
Acceptance above 1.1500 round number would extend the recovery leg beyond the session high
No first-tier US release left in this NY session; Fed's Bowman and BoJ overnight are the next catalysts that could reset this read
Higher lows off the asia low, capped by a double top at 1.1495/1.1498.
Post-Fed slide bottomed at the 1.14557 asia low and NY hours have ground price back up, with a spike to 1.14954 at the 12:15 UTC bar immediately faded once firm US claims and Philly Fed hit. Last three hours are a tight 1.1484–1.1498 band with a double top at the session high; RSI(14) near 58, ATR(14) about 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.15005
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14975 puts the 1.1500 round number and the 1.1505 area in play
Loss of the 1.14840 range floor re-opens the 1.14680 swing low
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset this intraday structure
15:01 UTC
Recovering off the post-FOMC low, grind higher · RSI 59 · price 1.14856
Higher lows since the Asia low, capped under the session high.
The window opens with the FOMC-driven drop through 1.1500 late Wednesday, bottoming at the 1.14545 asia low before a steady NY-session repair; price broke the London cap near 1.1483 and printed a session high at 1.14975. Now consolidating 1.1485–1.1495 just above the ema20 at 1.14844, RSI(14) mid-range at 59 with ATR(14) around 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14975 session high opens the 1.15000 psych level and the 1.1505 area
Loss of the ema20 at 1.14840 puts the 1.14680 swing low back in play
Failure to hold 1.14680 re-exposes the 1.14545 asia low
USD catalysts thin into the close; Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset this read
15:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-FOMC low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 1.14856
Higher highs / higher lows since the Asia base, capped at 1.1495/1.1497.
The 18:00 UTC Fed decision knocked EURUSD out of 1.1540 down to 1.1462, and the pair has since ground back up in an intraday leg through London into the first NY hours, clearing the Asian range. Price has been turned away twice at 1.14954/1.14975 — a double top just under the 1.1500 round number — while the 1.1484 micro base has held on each dip; RSI(14) near 58, ATR(14) about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14975 session high opens the 1.1500 round number as the next test
Loss of the 1.1484 micro base puts the 1.1468 swing low and the rising support line back in play
US calendar is empty for the rest of the session; Bowman and Industrial Production tomorrow are the next scheduled risk
14:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off the post-FOMC low, grinding up · RSI 64 · price 1.14926
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.14545, NY session at range top.
The window opens with the FOMC bar (16 Sep, 18:00 broker-time +3) slicing from 1.1545 to 1.14545, after which Asia based out and London/NY have built a HH/HL chain back to a session high of 1.14975. Price closed at 1.14926 just under that high with RSI(14) at ~64 and ATR(14) only ~8 pips, so the recovery is orderly rather than impulsive; the 1.14840 pivot low has held on each dip since the US data block.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.1505
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14975 session high opens the 1.15000 round number and the 1.15050 range top
Loss of the 1.14840 pivot low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 1.14680 london low
Sustained trade back under 1.14680 would put the 1.14545 window low back in play
Thin near-term calendar; Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow are the next catalysts that could reset this range
Higher highs and higher lows off the post-FOMC low.
The window opens with the post-FOMC collapse from 1.1535 to 1.14545, after which price based through Asia and stair-stepped higher; NY hours took out the London range and printed the session high at 1.14975 despite firm US claims and Philly Fed. Price sits at 1.14926, above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 62 — hot but not stretched, ATR(14) about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1505
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14840 swing low breaks the higher-low chain built off the london low at 1.14557
Acceptance above the 1.14975 session high puts the 1.15050 range top in play
Failure below 1.14680 (ny low) would return price into the post-FOMC base
BoJ decision tomorrow is the main cross-market risk to this intraday read
14:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since the post-Fed low · RSI 63 · price 1.14949
HH/HL chain off 1.1454, pressing the session high.
The window opens with the FOMC-hike slide from 1.1540 into the 24h low at 1.1454, followed by a flat Asian base and a grinding rounded bottom through London. The first NY hour has pushed the session high to 1.14975 with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) near 8 pips; 1.1500 round number caps directly above, with the NY low at 1.1484 as the nearest higher low.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.1454
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1500 round number would extend the recovery leg beyond the session high
Loss of 1.1484 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and returns focus to the london low at 1.1468
US Pending Home Sales just crossed at 14:00 GMT — first NY hour prints may widen the session range
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-Fed low · RSI 62 · price 1.14949
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian session low, testing the 1.1500 psych area.
NY session has driven a clean HH/HL chain off the 1.14545 day low, breaking the London high and stalling at the 1.14975 session high as post-Fed dollar longs took profit. Price is above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 62 — firm but not stretched — and the 1.1500 psych area plus the 1.15009 post-fed close sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.14842, 1.14682, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.15009, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.15009 post-fed close would extend the intraday breakout beyond the 1.1500 psych area
Loss of the 1.14842 ny swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens 1.14682 london low
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production early Friday, plus the BoJ decision, could reshape this read after the Asia handover
14:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs into NY · RSI 63 · price 1.14948
HH/HL chain off the day low, pressing session high.
NY session took out the London high and printed a session high at 1.14975, with price closing within 3 pips of it and RSI(14) around 63 — hot but not stretched. Supports have stepped up through the day: 1.14840 ny low sits above the 1.14680 swing low, itself well clear of the 1.14545 day low left by the post-Fed slide that opened this window.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.1505
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.15000 psych level would extend the breakout beyond the session high
Loss of 1.14840 ny low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts 1.14680 swing low back in play
Rejection wicks at 1.14975 with no follow-through would mark it as a false break
Post-Fed drop retracing; HH/HL chain since Asian low.
The 18:00 UTC Fed decision knocked EURUSD from 1.15449 to the 1.14545 asian low; NY hours have since retraced roughly half of that drop, breaking the London high and printing a session high at 1.14975 just under the 1.15000 psych mark. Higher lows off 1.14680 and 1.14842 have held with RSI(14) near 61 — hot but not extreme — and ATR(14) around 8 pips.
Support: 1.14842, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14975, 1.1500, 1.15449
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.15000 psych extends the retracement toward the pre-fed high zone
Loss of the 1.14842 pullback low breaks the rising support chain off 1.14680
Rejection at the 1.14975 session high would keep the post-Fed range intact
Fed's Bowman and US Industrial Production tomorrow could reset this intraday read
Yesterday's hawkish-Fed impulse bar snapped 1.1500 and dragged price to the 1.14545 24h low; Asia based there and London/early NY built a chain of higher lows back through 1.14680 into a 1.14954 session high. That spike was immediately rejected and the last six bars are pinned in a 1.14840-1.14910 micro base, RSI(14) mid-range near 57 with ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.15009
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14840 micro base would break the higher-low chain and put the 1.14680 session low back in play
A close above the 1.14954 session high opens the 1.15009 psych level lost after the Fed
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands inside the next bar and can shift this micro range
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 1.14868
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low; London high broken and holding, now consolidating under the session high.
First hour of the NY session extended the London recovery to a session high at 1.14954 before easing into a tight 1.14840–1.14930 hold, price above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 57 — hot but not stretched. This is a reflex bounce off yesterday's post-Fed slide through 1.1500; soft final Eurozone HICP at 3.2% gave EUR nothing, so the recovery has been USD-side profit-taking rather than a EUR bid. The broken 1.1500 psych level caps overhead.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.15004
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14954 session high, then the 1.1500 psych level, would extend the intraday breakout
Loss of the 1.14840 swing low puts price back in the 1.1470s and negates the breakout structure
A break of the 1.14680 london low restores the higher-low chain to a lower-low sequence
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the only near-term scheduled input; thin flow into the London-NY transition
Higher lows off the asian low, capped under 1.1500.
Post-FOMC slide bottomed at the asian low 1.14545 and NY hours have built a higher-low chain, with the squeeze in an oversold EUR extending to a session high of 1.14954 after firm-but-mixed US data (claims 196K, housing misses) triggered some dollar profit-taking. That push was rejected 5 pips under the 1.1500 round number and the last six bars are consolidating 1.1484–1.1493 with RSI(14) back near 56 and ATR ~6.7 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1500 round number would extend the recovery toward the 1.1509 post-FOMC shelf
Loss of the 1.1484 recent low, then 1.1468 ny low, breaks the higher-low chain
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT falls in the next bar period and can reset the NY range
Higher highs / higher lows off the overnight low, capped by the session high.
The post-FOMC flush late yesterday bottomed at the 1.14545 overnight low; London and early NY built a chain of higher lows and NY hours broke 1.1483 to print a session high at 1.14954 despite firm US claims and Philly Fed. Price has since flattened into a tight 1.1484–1.1493 shelf, holding the breakout base with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 acceptance above the 1.14954 session high puts the 1.1500 round number, broken on the Fed decision, back in play
A close back under the 1.1484 breakout base invalidates the retest read and re-exposes the 1.1468 swing low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands inside the next bars and can reset the intraday range
Higher highs/higher lows off the post-FOMC session low, capped under 1.1500.
The FOMC bar knifed through 1.1500 late in the prior NY session, but the Asian range high (1.1473) has since been broken and the NY open extended the short-covering leg to a session high of 1.14954 before fading — consistent with an oversold EUR squeezing rather than a trend change. The 1.14840 pullback low has been defended twice in the last hour and RSI(14) is mid-60s, off its intraday peak; ATR(14) is around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.15004
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.15004 would reclaim the psych 1.1500 level lost on the FOMC bar
Repeated failure at the 1.14954 session high with a break of the 1.14840 pullback low would end the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.14680 london low reopens the 1.14557 session low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT lands in the next bar period and could reshape this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, still inside the post-FOMC drop range.
The vertical FOMC drop late in yesterday's NY session capped the window at 1.15449 and bottomed at 1.14545; price has since ground back up on rising lows off 1.14557, breaking the London high and printing a session high of 1.14954 in the first hours of NY as the dollar eased despite firm claims and Philly Fed prints. The 1.14840 recent low held on the retest and RSI(14) near 60 leaves room either way, with the 1.1500 psych level the next area to watch for rejection or break. ATR(14) around 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above 1.15000 psych would extend the recovery leg beyond the session high
Loss of the 1.14680 ny low breaks the chain of rising lows and reopens 1.14557 london low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT falls inside the next bars and could reset the intraday range
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-FOMC low, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 1.14868
Higher lows since Asia, breakout above London high then rejection.
The post-FOMC flush bottomed at the 1.14557 asian low, and London/NY have since chained higher lows. The 12:15 GMT push cleared the london high at 1.14832 and tagged a 1.14954 session high before rejection back to 1.1487 — dollar easing on profit-taking after six DXY up-days despite firm claims and Philly Fed. RSI(14) 58.6, ATR(14) 7.2 pips.
Support: 1.14832, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14954 session high would put psych 1.1500 in range
M15 close back under the 1.14832 london high invalidates the breakout read
Loss of the 1.1468 swing low re-opens the post-FOMC downside structure toward the 1.14557 asian low
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT falls inside the next bar period and could reshape the NY range
The post-FOMC drop bottomed at the 1.14557 range low late in Asia, and price has chained higher lows through London into the first hours of NY, clearing the 1.1480 shelf that capped it for most of the session. Session high 1.14954 printed around the firm claims (196K) and Philly Fed prints before a shallow fade; the pullback low at 1.14842 held and RSI(14) sits near 61 with ATR(14) about 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.14842, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 1.14800 negates the range break and re-opens the ny low at 1.14680
Acceptance above the 1.14954 session high puts the 1.15000 round number in play
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the nearest catalyst inside this session
HH/HL chain off the Asia low; London range broken upward into NY.
NY open pushed through the London range to a 1.14954 session high, the best level since Wednesday's 18:00 FOMC drop, and the fade on the 12:30 GMT US claims/Philly Fed print held at the 1.14840 claims low before price reclaimed 1.1490. RSI(14) near 63 with higher lows in place from the 1.14557 asia low; the 1.1500 psych level and the post-FOMC break shelf cap the recovery, which has retraced roughly 40% of that drop.
Support: 1.1484, 1.1468, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.15009
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.15009 psych level would extend the retracement of the FOMC drop
Loss of the 1.14680 london low breaks the rising support chain of higher lows
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT could reprice the USD leg inside the NY session
13:01 UTC
Recovery leg off the lows, momentum cooling · RSI 62 · price 1.14922
Higher highs / higher lows since the London range break.
Price spent Asia and early London compressed in a 1.1455–1.1480 band after yesterday's FOMC drop, then broke out into the NY open and printed a session high at 1.14954 before the 12:30 GMT US claims/Philly Fed print sparked a fade back to 1.14842. Recovery to 1.14922 holds above the ema20 near 1.14790, RSI(14) around 62 with ATR(14) at roughly 7 pips.
Support: 1.1479, 1.14688, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14954 session high puts the 1.15000 round number in play
Loss of 1.14688 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the prior-day low at 1.14545
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled data point inside this session
Higher lows off 1.1455, rejection at 1.1495 session high.
Price broke the London high at 1.1483 into early NY and was rejected at the 1.1495 session high on the 12:30 GMT US claims/Philly Fed bar, fading back to 1.1485 with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 7 pips. Higher lows off the post-FOMC 1.1455 range low have held since the Asian session, with EMA20 at 1.1476 underneath and the 1.1500 round number capping.
Support: 1.1476, 1.1468, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1468 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 1.1455 range low
M15 close above the 1.1500 round number invalidates the post-FOMC range read
US Pending Home Sales 14:00 GMT can reset the intraday range while the USD leg leads
12:46 UTC
Corrective grind higher off the FOMC low · RSI 58 · price 1.1485
Higher lows since the Asia range, first break above the 1.1480 shelf.
The FOMC bar knifed 1.1535 to 1.1462 and price then spent the Asia and London sessions coiling 1.1455–1.1480. Into the NY open the shelf gave way, but the 1.1495 session high was rejected on the 12:30 GMT data bar and price closed back at 1.1485; RSI(14) near 58, ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1468, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.1500 psych level would invalidate the sub-1.1500 ceiling read
Loss of the 1.1468 swing low puts the 1.1455 range low back in play
US pending home sales at 14:00 GMT can reshape the NY range
Repeated failure at the 1.1495 session high keeps this a rejection rather than a break
Higher highs/higher lows off the 1.14545 base; range break above 1.14832.
The 18:00 UTC FOMC bar dumped the pair from 1.15449 to a 1.14545 fomc low, and Asia/London spent the next 15 hours basing between 1.14545 and 1.14832 before the last two bars broke out to a 1.14954 session high, clearing the 1.14832 prior high. RSI(14) at 68 with ATR near 7 pips — the move is stretching into the US data slot rather than fading.
Support: 1.14832, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land on the current bar and can invalidate the breakout read either way
A 15m close back below 1.14832 puts price back inside the 1.14680-1.14832 base, with the session low the next reference
Acceptance above the 1.1500 psych level would extend the retracement toward the 61.8% fib near 1.15104
Rising support off the 1.14557/1.14680 lows is the structure holding the recovery; a break below it ends the higher-low chain
Higher lows off the post-FOMC base, breakout above the London box.
The pre-data NY hours broke the London box top at 1.14832 (london high), printing a session high at 1.14954 with RSI(14) near 68 — mild Dollar profit-taking after yesterday's hawkish Fed hike. Above there, the 1.1500 round number is the next overhead reference; the session low at 1.14680 marks the first structural break lower, with 1.14545 the window low left by the FOMC drop.
Support: 1.14832, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14954, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 GMT lands on the current bar and can materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.14832 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.1500 round number extends the higher-low chain; loss of the 1.14680 session low negates it
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.14557 asian low, supply at 1.1485.
Post-FOMC selling on the hawkish dots bottomed at 1.14545 late in the US session, and the recovery leg off the 1.14557 asian low has built a clean HH/HL chain through London into early NY, with the last full bar poking a new session high at 1.14842 before closing 1.14814. RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) at 5.5 pips — ranges are thin, with 1.1485 supply immediately overhead and the 1.1500 psych level the next reference above.
Support: 1.1468, 1.14557, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14842, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land in the next bar and can reprice this range immediately
Acceptance above the 1.14842 session high extends the HH/HL chain toward the 1.1500 psych level
Loss of the 1.14680 swing low breaks the rising support line and negates the recovery read
A close back under 1.14557 asian low re-opens the post-fomc lo at 1.14545
12:16 UTC
Recovery inside post-FOMC range · RSI 60 · price 1.14814
Higher lows since 08:00 UTC, capped at session high.
The hawkish Fed hike at 18:00 UTC yesterday cut the pair from 1.1545 to the 1.14545 fomc low in under two hours; London has since ground out a chain of higher lows off 1.1468 and the 12:00 UTC bar poked the 1.14842 session high before closing back under it. Price is holding above ema20 near 1.1475 with RSI(14) at ~60 and ATR(14) only ~5.5 pips — the 1.1500 psych level lost on the FOMC drop remains the wider cap.
Support: 1.1475, 1.1468, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14842, 1.1500
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14842 would confirm the session high break rather than a marginal poke
Loss of 1.1468 session low breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 1.14545 fomc low
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC lands immediately after this bar and can void the intraday range read
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped by twin highs at 1.1480/1.1483.
The 18:00 UTC Fed decision cut the pair from 1.1535 to a 1.1455 low, and London hours have since retraced to a 1.14832 session high before a second failure at 1.1480 formed a double top. Price is now mid-range at 1.14719, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) at ~4.8 pips — rising support off the Asian low still intact into the NY open.
Support: 1.1468, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.14832
What it said to watch
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar and can break this range immediately
M15 close above the 1.14832 session high invalidates the double top read
Loss of the 1.1468 swing low breaks rising support and re-exposes the 1.1456 asian low
12:01 UTC
Post-FOMC downtrend, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.14719
Range between 1.1468 and 1.1483 after the drop.
The 18:00 UTC Fed decision knocked EURUSD from 1.1535 to a 1.1455 asia low, and London has since spent the session chopping in a 15-pip band between the 1.1468 range floor and the 1.1483 session high. Two rejections at 1.1480 cap the recovery while RSI(14) sits mid-range at 51 and ATR(14) has compressed to ~5 pips.
Support: 1.1468, 1.1462, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1483, 1.1480, 1.1500
What it said to watch
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar — main risk to this compressed range
M15 close above the 1.1483 session high would end the range read and expose 1.1500 psych
Loss of the 1.1468 range floor re-opens 1.1462 swing low and the 1.1455 asia low
Double top at 1.1480 after London higher-high chain broke down.
London lifted price off the 1.1456 asian low to 1.14832, then a second push stalled at 1.14803 — a double top that has since given way, with the last four bars closing back under the ema20 at 1.1474. Structure is now flat-to-lower into the London-NY transition, with 1.1467 london low the first shelf; the whole window sits below yesterday's NY-hours slide from 1.1544, a USD-led move.
Support: 1.1467, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1474, 1.1480, 1.14832
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1467 london low confirms a lower low and reopens 1.1456 asian low
Reclaim of 1.14803 session high invalidates the double top read
US CPI is the dominant USD catalyst this week and can override this intraday structure
Yesterday's NY hours delivered a 45-pip USD-led slide off 1.1545 into 1.14545; London then lifted off the 1.14557 asian low to a 1.14832 session high before supply capped a second attempt near the 1.148 psych level. Price has slipped back under the 1.1474 ema20 with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) around 5 pips, holding just above the 1.1467 london low ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.1467, 1.14557
Resistance: 1.1474, 1.1480, 1.14832
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14832 invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.1467 london low exposes the 1.14557 asian low
Repeated rejection at the 1.148 psych level keeps the session range intact
US CPI remains the dominant USD repricing risk for this pair