EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 23 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Rolling over, range floor gave way · RSI 37 · price 1.13784
Broke below multi-day range, testing lows.
The multi-day 1.1400-1.1480 range that held for three weeks gave way, with price breaking the floor and now testing the 1.1360-1.1380 zone near the swing low. A sequence of lower highs — the range high at 1.1482 then 1.1435 — capped the recovery, consistent with the oil-driven USD bid keeping EUR/USD boxed sub-1.1420 after an in-line ECB hold. ATR has picked up on the breakdown leg, marking a shift out of the prior compression.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1354
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1420 cap negates the range break read
Failure to hold 1.1360 swing low opens further downside toward the 1.1354 range low
Fri flash PMIs (EZ 08:00 GMT, US 13:45 GMT) could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Rolling over, breakdown from range · RSI 36 · price 1.13784
Lower highs, range break lower.
EURUSD has broken down from the multi-day 1.1420-1.1470 range, printing lower highs off the 1.1482 swing high and closing at 1.1378 below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.1420 pivot cap held repeatedly through the window and price is now rejecting from beneath it, consistent with the oil-driven safe-haven USD bid capping EUR. ATR is mid-range, with the move accelerating into the recent 1.1364 swing low.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1420 pivot cap invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1364 swing low confirms continuation lower toward 1.1350
Fri flash PMIs (EZ + US) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Range rolling over, momentum lower · RSI 38 · price 1.13727
Lower highs since 1.1482, testing range floor.
EURUSD has rolled over from the 1.1482 range high, printing successive lower highs and slicing back through the 1.1380 pivot to test the 1.1364 range floor. The 1.1380-1.1482 band that held for two weeks is now breaking down as EUR eases despite the hawkish ECB hold, matching the digest's downside skew toward 1.1380. ATR(14) is moderate and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1354
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1435, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1354 confirms a range break lower
Reclaim of 1.1380 pivot neutralises the breakdown read
Fri flash PMIs (EZ and US) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Rolling over, range break lower · RSI 34 · price 1.13727
Broke below 1.1400 range floor.
EUR/USD broke below the multi-day 1.1400-1.1480 band that had contained price for two weeks, closing at 1.1373 after a sharp two-bar sell-off into 1.1364. ATR(14) is expanding off compressed lows, confirming the downside impulse rather than a false break, with price now under both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.1400 floor becomes the level to watch as a retest reference.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.14354
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 negates the range break read
Failure to hold 1.13636 opens the path toward the 1.1350 psych area
EZ/US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EURUSD has traded a two-week range between the 1.1380 range low and the 1.1476 swing high, printing lower-highs since the early-month 1.1482 peak. Price was rejected below the 1.1420 cap and slid on the last bar to probe the lower edge into the Lagarde presser. ATR is moderate and price now sits below both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1476
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1380 confirms a range break lower toward the 1.1353 range base
Reclaim of 1.1420 negates the rollover and reopens 1.1476
ECB/Lagarde presser today could materially shift this read
EURUSD has spent the last two-plus weeks boxed between the 1.1380 range low and the 1.1482 range high, with the 1.1420 area repeatedly capping. The latest H4 sold off sharply from 1.1435 to close near 1.1392, a rejection that leaves price below both EMA20 and EMA50 and back toward the lower edge. The expected ECB hold (depo 2.25%) is in the price; the Lagarde presser is the near-term swing factor.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1349
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1449, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1380 range low opens the path lower
Reclaim of 1.1420 cap would re-open the range mid
Lagarde presser today can materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 48 · price 1.14241
Multi-week range, compressing mid-range.
EURUSD has spent the last three weeks locked in a 1.1360-1.1482 range, with the 1.1435/1.1420 zone repeatedly capping rallies and 1.1400 acting as the pivot. ATR(14) has compressed to ~14 pips, a tight coil that typically precedes a range break. Price is stalling below the cap into today's ECB hold, with hawkish ECB expectations offsetting the intermittent USD safe-haven bid.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.1435 cap opens the path to the 1.1482 range high
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot exposes 1.1360 range low
EURUSD has been rangebound for the past two weeks, capping repeatedly near 1.1465 after the 1.1482 swing high and finding demand around the 1.1388 area. ATR(14) has compressed as price coils just under the 1.1465 cap, with EMA20 and EMA50 flat and intertwined around current levels. ECB hold and hawkish-vs-growth positioning is keeping the pair pinned into today's decision.
Support: 1.1388, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this range read
H4 close above 1.1465 opens the path back to 1.1482
Failure to hold 1.1388 confirms a lower-low toward 1.1360
05:02 UTC
Range-bound, low-1.14s · RSI 51 · price 1.14286
Consolidation below mid-month high.
EUR/USD has coiled in the low-1.14s for over a week, pulling back from the mid-month peak at 1.1482 to a swing low near 1.1397 before stabilising back at 1.1429 — a classic pre-event consolidation ahead of the ECB. ATR(14) has compressed sharply versus the wider swings earlier in the window, consistent with a market pinned into a catalyst. Price is hovering around EMA50 with EMA20 flattening beneath it, leaving structure balanced inside the 1.1360–1.1482 range.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision today 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could break this range either side
H4 close above 1.1465 opens the path back toward the 1.1482 month high
Failure to hold 1.1397 exposes the 1.1360 range floor
Friday flash PMIs are a secondary risk to the consolidation read
05:02 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 53 · price 1.14286
Multi-day consolidation in low 1.14s.
EUR/USD has churned sideways in the low 1.14s for two weeks, framed by a 1.1482 range high and a 1.1397 floor, with 1.1420 acting as a repeated intraday cap that this last bar edged above. ATR(14) compression underlines the pre-ECB drift — the hawkish September-hike narrative keeps EUR bid against a safe-haven USD but hasn't broken the range. Price sits back above EMA20 while EMA50 caps just overhead.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision today 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could break this range either way
H4 close above 1.1465 opens the path back to the 1.1482 range high
Failure to hold 1.1397 confirms a lower low toward the 1.1360 pivot
EURUSD stays boxed in a multi-day 1.1360-1.1482 range, now sitting mid-to-lower after fading the 1.1482 swing high and slipping back under the 1.1420 pivot cap. ATR(14) has compressed sharply as EUR holds in the low-1.14s into Thursday's ECB decision, with hawkish tightening bets offsetting a war-driven USD safe-haven bid. Price trades below both the EMA20 and EMA50, but the broader structure remains a range, not a trend.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1465, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC plus Lagarde presser is the key catalyst and could break this range read
H4 close above 1.1465 opens the path back to the 1.1482 swing high
Loss of 1.1380 range floor exposes 1.1360 range low
01:02 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower within range · RSI 46 · price 1.14118
Multi-week range, lower highs off 1.1482.
EURUSD remains boxed in a multi-week range, capped near the 1.1473 swing high and the 1.1482 range top after rejection off the early-week peak. Price has since drifted back under the 1.1420 cap and is grinding along the 1.1400 pivot, with EMA20 and EMA50 now overhead and ATR(14) compressed to ~12 pips. The tight coil reflects positioning into Thursday's ECB hold, the clear near-term catalyst.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1473, 1.1482
What it said to watch
ECB decision (~11h) and Lagarde presser can break this range
H4 close below 1.1400 pivot opens the path to the 1.1360 range floor
reclaim of the 1.1420 cap re-engages the 1.1465-1.1482 range top