EUR/USD sold off through the London-NY window post-ECB hold, printing a 1.13636 swing low before basing. Asian hours are thin and rangebound between the 1.13700 floor and a 1.13800 session cap; RSI(14) back near 53 after the flush.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.13800 opens the path back to 1.13859 prior high
Loss of 1.13636 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
Eurozone flash PMIs 08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT could break this range
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 49 · price 1.13784
Day decline, tight consolidation into Asia.
EUR/USD sold from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 low through the NY session on the post-ECB USD safe-haven bid, then based into Asia hours. Price now coils in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 range on thin late-session volume, RSI back to neutral near 49.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.13700 reopens the 1.13636 swing low
Reclaim of 1.13800 range top eyes the 1.13860 swing high
Eurozone flash PMIs 08:00 GMT and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could break this range
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, now stalling · RSI 53 · price 1.13785
Tight range after sell-off.
Price broke down through the London-NY session, capitulating to 1.13636 before recovering to hold a tight range top at 1.13800. Now drifting flat near 1.13785 into a thin Asia session, RSI(14) balanced near 53 with volume drying up.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13856
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13856 prior high would negate the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.13677 swing low reopens the session low at 1.13636
EZ flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could break this range
23:31 UTC
Down leg stalled, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.13785
Consolidation after selloff.
EURUSD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to 1.1364, then coiled tight around 1.1378 into thin Asian-hours trade. RSI(14) neutral near 53; price pinned just under the 1.1386 swing high with almost no range in the last few bars.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1396
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1386 swing high reopens the 1.1396 prior high
Loss of 1.1364 session low confirms continuation lower
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC could break the consolidation
23:16 UTC
Prior downleg, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.13787
Consolidation above session low after sell-off.
EUR/USD was sold through the NY session from ~1.1435 down to 1.1364, sinking into ING's flagged 1.1380 downside pivot. Price then based twice near 1.1365-1.1370 and has consolidated in a tight 1.1373-1.1380 band through the Asia rollover on thin volume.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.13856 swing high needed to break the consolidation upside
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC could shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.13787
Consolidation near session lows after selloff.
EURUSD sold off through the London-NY session from 1.14354 to 1.13636 before basing; the leg down aligns with ING's lean toward 1.1380. Price now consolidating in a tight 1.1373-1.1380 band on thin late-session volume, RSI hovering near 53.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Close above 1.13800 opens the path back to the 1.1400 pivot
EZ flash PMIs at 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could break the range
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 54 · price 1.13795
Consolidation above 1.1364 swing low.
EUR/USD sold off through the London-NY session to 1.1364, aligning with ING's flagged 1.1380 downside pivot, then based and ground back to 1.1380 on thin Asia volume. Two lows near 1.1364-1.1367 held, and price is now coiling into the 1.1380 range top with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.13636 confirms a lower low and breaks the double-bottom base
M15 close above 1.13800 opens room back toward the 1.1400 pivot
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC could break this quiet range
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 54 · price 1.13795
Consolidation above session low after impulsive drop.
EUR/USD sold off through the 1.1400 pivot during the prior session, tagging a session low at 1.1364 near ING's 1.1380 downside area. Price has since coiled 1.1370-1.1380 in a thin Asia session (volume drying up), drifting to the range top with RSI back to neutral.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 psych pivot would negate the lower-low structure
Loss of 1.1364 session low extends the down-leg
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could break this range
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, now flat at lows · RSI 49 · price 1.1378
Sold off then ranging above session low.
London-NY sold EUR/USD from 1.1435 down to a 1.1364 session low, matching ING's 1.1380 downside lean. Since then price has gone dead in the thin Asian rollover, coiling in a 1.1370-1.1380 range with volume collapsing and RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1364
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.1380 range top opens 1.1400 psych pivot
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could break the range
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, now flat at lows · RSI 51 · price 1.1378
Base building after decline.
EUR sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 swing low, then based and ground back to 1.1378 — sitting on ING's flagged 1.1380 downside pivot. Asia hours are thin and directionless, price coiled in a 1.1370-1.1380 range with RSI back to neutral.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.1400 psych level neutralises the decline
EZ flash PMIs at 07:15 UTC could break the Asian range
22:32 UTC
Downtrend cooling into range · RSI 49 · price 1.13772
Range after impulsive drop.
A sharp selloff through London-NY hours dragged EURUSD off the 1.1435 high to 1.13636, aligning with ING's 1.1380 downside lean. Price now consolidates 1.13700-1.13800 in thin Asia trade, RSI(14) flat near 49 after the flush.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a lower low and extends the drop
M15 close above 1.13800 range top negates the consolidation read
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC could break this range
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating near lows · RSI 51 · price 1.13772
Session sell-off, base building 1.1370-1.1380.
NY session drove EUR down from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.13636 as USD held firm near DXY 101; price has since based between 1.1370 and 1.1380 through low-volume late/Asia hours. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-range as the decline stalls, but price remains capped below the descending highs.
Support: 1.13703, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above 1.1380 breaks the consolidation top
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC could shift this read
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13775
Sold off from 1.1435, ranging 1.1370-1.1380.
London-NY hours drove a sharp leg lower from 1.14354 to a session low at 1.13636 as EUR came under pressure, aligning with ING's 1.1380 downside lean. Price has since settled into a tight 1.1370-1.1380 range through thin Asian hours, RSI(14) recovering to mid-40s.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13856
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim above 1.13800 range top would ease the downside pressure
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could break this range
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, now flat · RSI 49 · price 1.13775
Consolidation after NY sell-off.
NY session drove EUR/USD off 1.1435 down to a 1.13636 session low, then price stalled into a tight 1.1370-1.1380 consolidation through the thin late-session bars. RSI sits neutral near 49 and ATR is compressing; the leg lower fits ING's 1.1380 downside pivot flagged this week.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.13859
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 resumes the downtrend to a fresh session low
Reclaim of 1.13859 negates the lower-high structure
EZ flash PMIs at 07:15 UTC tomorrow could shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, now stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.13767
Sold off then ranging near lows.
EUR/USD sold off hard through the London-NY session toward ING's 1.1380 pivot, breaking to a 1.1364 session low. Since then it has ranged 1.1364-1.1380 on thin late-session volume, RSI(14) back to neutral near 49.
Support: 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1364 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1380 range top puts 1.1386 back in play
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could reset this read
EURUSD sold off through London-NY from 1.1435 down to a 1.1364 session low, with USD firm on strong jobless claims and safe-haven flows. Price has since based between 1.1364 and 1.1380, now drifting flat near 1.1377 on thin late-session volume; RSI recovered off the lows to mid-range.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot negates the breakdown read
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, now flat near lows · RSI 49 · price 1.13782
Sold off from session high, consolidating above 1.1364 low.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from the 1.1435 high to a 1.1364 session low, aligning with ING's 1.1380 downside lean after the hawkish ECB hold. Price has since gone flat in thin late-session trade, coiling between 1.1371 and 1.1380 with RSI back at neutral.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1371
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1414
What it said to watch
M15 break below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower low
Close above 1.1380 range top reopens 1.14140 swing pivot
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC tomorrow could shift this read
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 49 · price 1.13782
Sold off from session highs, basing near lows.
NY session drove EUR/USD off the 1.1435 high down to a session low of 1.1364, with the digest's soft-USD/ING lean toward 1.1380 playing out. Price has since based around 1.1378 on thin late-session volume, RSI(14) back near 49 after the flush; the 1.1380 pivot is capping the recovery.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a lower low and reopens the downside
Reclaim of 1.1380 pivot and a push through 1.1386 shifts the base higher
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 48 · price 1.13747
Sharp decline into flat consolidation.
EUR/USD sold off from 1.1435 to 1.1364 through the London-NY hours, in line with the digest's lean toward ING's 1.1380 pivot. Price has since consolidated 1.1370-1.1380 into thin late-session trade, with a double bottom holding near 1.1364; RSI(14) mid-range around 47.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13852
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a lower-low and breaks the double bottom
Reclaim of 1.13800 range top negates the near-term downside pressure
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.13747
Sharp selloff then consolidation base.
NY session drove a sharp leg from 1.1435 down to the session low at 1.13636, tagging ING's 1.1380 pivot zone. Price has since based in a tight 1.1368-1.1380 consolidation into thin late-session hours, holding below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-range near 47.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.14042
What it said to watch
Break below 1.13636 session low extends the downtrend
M15 close above 1.13806 swing high exits the consolidation
EZ/US flash PMIs Fri 07:15-13:45 UTC could reset this range
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 46 · price 1.13752
Lower highs into session low, sideways base.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low, in line with ING's lean toward 1.1380. Price has since based between 1.1364 and 1.1381 into thin late-session trade, with RSI(14) recovered off its lows to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.1395
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13806 opens the path back toward the 1.13950 prior swing
EZ flash PMIs tomorrow 07:15-08:00 UTC could shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 48 · price 1.13752
NY sell-off based out, now ranging.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.1364 as the dollar stayed firm on strong US jobless claims. Price has since based out and clawed back to 1.1375, now consolidating thin into the Asia handover just under ING's 1.1380 pivot. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 48 with the drop's momentum spent.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 opens the path back toward the 1.1400 pivot
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a lower low and reopens downside
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from ~1.1435 to a session low of 1.13636 as an oil-driven safe-haven USD bid capped EUR sub-1.1420. Price has since based in a tight 1.1371-1.1380 range into the low-volume post-NY hours, RSI back to neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 range top opens a retest of 1.1386
Loss of 1.1371 exposes the 1.13636 session low again
Fri flash PMIs (EZ 08:00 GMT, US 13:45 GMT) could reset this range
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.13769
Consolidation after sell-off.
NY session sold EUR/USD from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 swing low as an oil-driven safe-haven USD bid capped the pair, RSI now back at 51. Last several hours have coiled into a tight 1.1370-1.1380 band through the Asia session, range top still respected.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 range top opens the 1.1386 prior high
Failure to hold 1.13636 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fri flash PMIs (EZ + US) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend cooling into range · RSI 51 · price 1.13775
Basing after NY sell-off, tight range.
London-NY session sold off from 1.1435 to a session low at 1.1364, with the USD firm on the oil-driven safe-haven bid. Price has since based in a tight 1.1371-1.1380 range, RSI(14) recovered to mid-range around 51; no directional setup while the range holds.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1398, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Break below 1.1371 reopens the 1.1364 session low
M15 close above 1.1380 puts the 1.1400 pivot back in focus
Fri flash PMIs (German/EZ, US) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 52 · price 1.13775
Tight consolidation after NY selloff.
NY session drove a sharp leg down from 1.1435 into 1.1364 as an oil-fed USD safe-haven bid capped EUR; price has since based in a tight 1.1371–1.1380 range for the last several hours. RSI(14) back to neutral near 52, ATR compressed to ~3 pips — no momentum into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1380 opens a retest of the 1.1386 swing high
Loss of 1.1371 reopens the 1.1364 session low
Fri EU/US flash PMIs could break the range decisively
20:32 UTC
Downtrend easing, now basing · RSI 53 · price 1.13794
Selloff into a tight range near lows.
EUR sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 low, unable to hold sub-1.1420 as a firm USD and oil-driven safe-haven bid weighed. Price has since based in a tight 1.1371-1.1381 range with RSI back near 53; sellers capping into 1.1380.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Close above 1.13859 breaks the consolidation and reopens 1.1400
Fri EU/US flash PMIs are the next scheduled driver for this pair
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 55 · price 1.13794
Swing low carved, grinding back up.
NY session drove EUR/USD down through 1.1410 to a 1.1364 swing low as the USD firmed on the Iran safe-haven bid; buyers stepped in and price has ground back to the 1.1380 session high. Now consolidating in a tight band with RSI back near mid-range and ATR compressed to ~4 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.1371, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 session high opens the 1.1400 pivot
Failure to hold the 1.1371 range floor reopens the 1.1364 swing low
Fri EU/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 low as the oil-driven USD bid capped the pair sub-1.1420. Price is now basing in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 range late in the session with ATR compressed and RSI back to neutral.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.13859
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.13806 opens a recovery toward 1.1386
Break below 1.13636 extends the NY downtrend
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 49 · price 1.13772
Consolidation above session low.
NY afternoon sold EUR/USD from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.13636 as an oil-driven safe-haven USD bid pressured the pair. Price has since based between the 1.13700 range floor and 1.13800 range top into Asia, RSI(14) recovered to neutral near 49.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a lower low and reopens downside
Reclaim of the 1.13800 range top opens the path back toward the 1.13860 swing high
Fri Eurozone/German flash PMIs could shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 54 · price 1.13782
Range after impulsive sell-off.
NY session drove a sharp sell-off from 1.1435 to 1.13636 as an oil-driven USD bid capped EUR sub-1.1420. Price has since based in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 range through the late session, grinding marginally higher with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1370, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13860 would ease the sell-off structure
Loss of 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower-low
Fri Eurozone/German flash PMIs (from 07:15 GMT) could reset this range
Sold off to session low, now consolidating above it.
EUR sold off through the London-NY session, cutting from 1.1435 to a low at 1.1364 as growth worry and the oil-driven USD bid weighed. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.1367-1.1380 range through late NY, RSI(14) back to neutral and ATR cooling.
Support: 1.13673, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 range top opens the path toward 1.1386
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms a lower low
Fri flash HCOB/S&P PMIs could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, now flat near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.1376
Tight consolidation above session low.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 session low, capped sub-1.1420 as an oil-driven USD bid weighed. Price has since gone flat, coiling in a 1.1370-1.1380 band just above the session low with ATR compressing and RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1377
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot needed to unwind the NY-session decline
Fri Eurozone/US flash PMIs could break this range
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 1.1376
Sell-off into low consolidation.
NY session drove EUR/USD off the 1.1435 high down to a 1.1364 session low as an oil-driven USD bid weighed. Price has since based in a tight 1.1373-1.1380 band into the late NY hours, RSI(14) recovering off the lows to neutral.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1355
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1385 pivot would ease the downside pressure
M15 close below 1.1364 session low reopens the 1.1355 area
Fri Eurozone/German flash PMIs could break this consolidation
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing near lows · RSI 55 · price 1.13794
Lower highs/lows through session, now basing above 1.1364.
EUR/USD sold off through the London-NY session from 1.14354 to a session low of 1.13636, hitting ING's 1.1380 downside pivot after the ECB's in-line hold. Price is now basing in a tight 1.1364–1.1381 range with a chain of higher lows, RSI(14) recovering off oversold toward the midline.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.13859
What it said to watch
Close above 1.13806 range top would break the session downtrend structure
Break below 1.13636 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:30-08:00 GMT could shift this read
NY session sold EURUSD off from 1.1435 down to 1.1364, unwinding the earlier post-ECB firmness; ING's 1.1380 downside pivot is now the pin. Price is basing 1.1365-1.1380 with RSI(14) recovered to mid-range, momentum flat.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859, 1.13978
What it said to watch
Close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13859 would negate the consolidation lower
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT could shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, now stabilising · RSI 51 · price 1.13749
Tight range after impulsive sell-off.
NY session drove EUR/USD down from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.13636 as an oil-led USD safe-haven bid weighed. Price is now coiled in a tight 1.1371-1.1380 band into late NY hours, RSI(14) recovered to neutral near 51.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.13859
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.13806 breaks the consolidation and opens a retest higher
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower-low
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT could shift this read
EUR sold off through the NY session from ~1.1435 to a session low of 1.13636, then based and recovered into a tight 1.1370–1.1380 range. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold back to neutral; price is hugging EMA20 but still below EMA50 after the leg down.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386, 1.13977
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1380 range top would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 1.13636 session low confirms lower-low continuation
Eurozone/German flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, now basing · RSI 52 · price 1.1377
Sold off into session lows, tight consolidation.
EUR/USD dropped sharply through NY hours from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low, sliding below ING's 1.1380 pivot as the softer growth/oil-driven USD bid weighed. Price is now basing in a tight 1.1368–1.1380 range with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the 1.1380 level caps the bounce.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1380 pivot would neutralise the downside read
Break of 1.1364 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Eurozone/German flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
NY session sold EUR off from 1.1435 down to a 1.1364 session low as an oil-led USD safe-haven bid pressured the pair. Price has since stalled into late-NY hours, ranging 1.1364–1.1380 with RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 46.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 clears the consolidation top and eases the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms a lower low
EZ flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from the 1.1435 high to a 1.1364 session low as oil-led USD haven demand pressed the pair, RSI(14) cooling off the extreme. Price now consolidating in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 band below EMA20/50, holding just above the session low.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1338
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 opens the path toward the 1.1338 ING target
Reclaim of 1.1380 range top would ease the downside pressure
EZ flash PMIs (Fri) and US S&P Global PMIs could reset this read
NY session drove EURUSD off 1.1435 down to 1.1364 as oil-led safe-haven USD demand capped the pair below the 1.1420 cap flagged pre-ECB. Price has since gone flat 1.1364–1.1380 into the late NY hours, RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 44.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1394
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13800 range top would ease the downside pressure
Eurozone/US flash PMIs Fri 24 Jul could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, now stabilising · RSI 47 · price 1.13751
Consolidation above session low after sell-off.
EUR/USD sold off from the 1.1435 session high through the London-NY window, bottoming at 1.1364 as USD firmed on Iran safe-haven flows. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 band into late NY, RSI(14) recovered to mid-range from oversold.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1364
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1364 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.1380 recent high opens the path back toward the 1.1400 psych level
Friday EZ/German flash PMIs and US S&P Global PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, now consolidating near session low.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low as oil-led USD strength weighed post-ECB hold, and is now consolidating 1.1370–1.1380. RSI(14) has stabilized near 44 after the flush; range top at 1.1380 capping the recovery.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1364
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the path toward ING's 1.1380 pivot area
Reclaim of 1.1380 range top would neutralize the intraday downtrend
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri (EZ Services f/c 49.8) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating off lows · RSI 43 · price 1.13737
Lower highs into a 1.1364–1.1380 range.
EURUSD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low, breaking the 1.1380 pivot flagged in the digest as growth doubts weighed on EUR. Price now consolidates in a 1.1364–1.1380 band, holding just below EMA20 with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 range top negates the breakdown read
Break below 1.1364 session low confirms a fresh lower low
EZ flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a session low at 1.13636 as an oil-led USD safe-haven bid capped the hawkish-ECB narrative. Price has since based, consolidating 1.13677–1.13800 with RSI recovering off the lows; range top still respected.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
M15 close above 1.13800 breaks the consolidation
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from ~1.1420 to a 1.1364 session low as strong US jobless claims (187K) revived safe-haven USD demand. Price is now consolidating 1.1364–1.1380, drifting back toward the swing low with RSI(14) mid-range and ATR compressed to ~10 pips.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1364
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1364 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.1380 session high would ease downside pressure
Eurozone/US flash PMIs Fri 24 Jul could materially shift this read
NY session sold EURUSD off the 1.1435 high down to a 1.13636 session low despite EUR's post-ECB resilience, with the leg lower kicking in around the NY open. Price then based between 1.13677 and the 1.138 range top; late-session lower highs are pressing it back toward the base as RSI hovers mid-40s.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.13636 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
M15 close back above 1.138 range top negates the rollover
Eurozone & US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 44 · price 1.13736
Lower highs into a base above session low.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 low, sliding to ING's 1.1380 pivot area as oil-led USD safe-haven bid capped the pair. Price has since based between 1.1364 and 1.1380 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the session high at 1.13806 is still capping.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.1385, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13806 needed to unwind the intraday sell-off
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could reset this read
EUR sold off through the NY session from ~1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low, unwinding the earlier hawkish-ECB bid as USD held a safe-haven tone. Price has since based in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 range, RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 45; range top at 1.1380 still capping.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13806, 1.1395
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 range top opens the path back toward 1.1395
Failure to hold the 1.1364 session low confirms a lower-low
Eurozone/US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
Consolidating above session low after sharp NY leg down.
NY session drove a sharp selloff from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 low as the USD safe-haven bid on Iran risk overpowered the resilient euro. Price has since based between 1.1364 and 1.1380, RSI(14) recovering from the sell-off lows; the range top at 1.1380 has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1385, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1380 opens a retest toward the 1.1420 cap
Failure to hold 1.1364 session low extends the down-leg toward 1.1350
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
NY session drove EUR/USD off 1.1435 down to a session low of 1.1364 as the USD safe-haven bid firmed on Iran risk. Price has since based between 1.1365 and 1.1380, RSI(14) recovered off oversold to the mid-40s with momentum flat into the close.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1380 would break the intraday consolidation ceiling
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a lower low
Eurozone/US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EURUSD sold off sharply through the London-NY session from ~1.1435 to a 1.13636 low, then based between 1.1365 and 1.1380 with RSI recovering off oversold. Twin lows at 1.13636/1.13656 mark a double bottom; price now hugs the EMA20 while capped below the 1.1386 bounce high.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.14054, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1386 opens the path back toward the 1.14054 base
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could reshape this read
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing after selloff · RSI 45 · price 1.13765
Lower lows into a base around 1.1375.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.13636 session low, then based around 1.1375 with RSI recovering off oversold. Recent high capped at 1.13800; still boxed below it into Friday's Eurozone and US flash PMIs.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386, 1.14042
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.13800 opens the path back to the 1.13860 swing high
Loss of 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Eurozone and US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
NY session drove EUR/USD sharply from 1.1435 down to a 1.13636 session low, breaking clean below the day's range as safe-haven USD demand capped the pair. Price has since based and ground back to 1.1380; RSI recovered off oversold but the broader intraday structure stays lower-high, lower-low.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1395, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.13856 bounce high would ease the downside pressure
Loss of the 1.13636 session low opens fresh lows
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 54 · price 1.13796
Sharp NY selloff then consolidation off 1.1364.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low as a safe-haven USD bid capped the pair post-ECB hold. Price has since based above 1.1367 and is grinding back to 1.13800 into late NY, RSI recovered to mid-range.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13673
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1386, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.1400 would negate the intraday downtrend
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs are the next scheduled driver
NY session drove a sharp selloff from 1.1435 to 1.1364, and EURUSD is now consolidating 1.1364-1.1378 into the afternoon. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold, but price remains below the EMA50 with the lower-high sequence intact. Friday's flash PMIs are the next scheduled catalyst.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13673
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1385 breaks the lower-high sequence
NY session drove EUR/USD off 1.1435 down to 1.1364, the leg accelerating as the Iran-driven safe-haven USD bid capped EUR post-ECB hold. Price is now basing in a tight 1.1364-1.1386 range with RSI(14) recovering off its lows; the 1.13636 low has held twice.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a lower low and reopens downside
Reclaim of 1.13859 needed to shift the intraday structure higher
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing off lows · RSI 48 · price 1.13791
Sharp NY selloff, consolidation near session low.
NY session drove EUR/USD off the 1.1435 high down to a session low at 1.1364 as safe-haven USD firmed, leaving the pair boxed sub-1.1420 as the digest flagged. Price is now basing 1.1364–1.1379 with RSI recovering off oversold; the recent swing high at 1.1386 caps, 1.1400 round number sits above.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13673
Resistance: 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.1386 swing high would extend the recovery toward 1.1400
Break of 1.1364 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
EZ/US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR sold off hard through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 session low, safe-haven USD bid capping the pair sub-1.1420. Price has since based between 1.1365 and 1.1380 with a double-bottom print and higher lows, RSI recovering off oversold toward neutral.
Support: 1.13656, 1.1372
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1398
What it said to watch
Reclaim and M15 close above 1.1386 opens the path back toward 1.1400
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower low
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs (07:15-13:45 GMT) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a session low at 1.13636 after the in-line ECB hold, RSI cooling into the low 40s. Price is now consolidating 1.1364-1.1379, with buyers stepping in twice around 1.1365; the range top at 1.1379 caps for now.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1379, 1.1386, 1.13944
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13790 range top would ease downside pressure
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 GMT and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.13773
Lower highs, lower lows into a base.
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session after the ECB hold delivered as expected, breaking below 1.1400 to a session low of 1.13636. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1365-1.1378 range with RSI recovering off the lows; the 1.13856 breakdown shelf caps the bounce.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.13856 breakdown shelf needed to shift the intraday read
German/EZ flash PMIs Fri 07:15 GMT and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially move this
EURUSD sold off through the NY session from the 1.1435 day high to 1.1364 after the ECB delivered the expected hold, USD safe-haven demand doing the work. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1365-1.1375 band just off the session low, RSI(14) recovering from the sub-40 washout.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1386 negates the downside break
Lower highs and lower lows, now consolidating above session low.
EUR/USD sold off sharply through the NY session despite the hawkish-hold ECB, sliding from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.1364. Price is now consolidating in the low 1.1370s, holding just above that low with RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 42.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1400, 1.14141
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.13856 swing high would ease the downtrend read
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 GMT could reset this read
EUR sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a session low at 1.13636 despite the in-line ECB hold, as USD safe-haven demand capped the pair. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1365-1.1375 band with RSI(14) recovering off oversold; the recent high near 1.1385 caps the bounce.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1385 recent high would ease the downside pressure
Eurozone/German flash PMIs Fri 07:15 GMT could reshape this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 low as USD safe-haven demand offset the ECB hold, breaking the prior 1.1400 shelf. Price swept the low and is now consolidating around 1.1372, RSI recovering off the oversold reach.
Support: 1.13656, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.13757, 1.1385, 1.14042
What it said to watch
Break below 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
M15 close above 1.13850 negates the downtrend read
EZ/German flash PMIs Fri 07:15 GMT could reset this read
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 38 · price 1.13702
Lower highs, lower lows since NY open.
NY session drove a sharp breakdown from 1.1435 through the 1.1380 pivot, with EUR/USD now basing between the 1.1368 swing low and 1.1364 session low as RSI(14) holds near 37. USD safe-haven bid on Iran headlines pressured the pair; the bounce high at 1.1378 and prior low near 1.1385 cap the recovery so far.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13785, 1.13845
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.1380 pivot would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1364 session low confirms next lower low
Fri Eurozone/US flash PMIs could reset this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.13702
Lower highs, lower lows into session low.
EUR sold off through the NY session, breaking the 1.1400 psych level after the in-line ECB hold and firmer safe-haven USD bid. Price is now basing between 1.1364 and 1.1386 with RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 39.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13673
Resistance: 1.13859, 1.1400, 1.14168
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.13860 questions the downtrend continuation
Failure to hold 1.13636 session low opens further downside
Fri Eurozone/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
NY session sold EUR from the 1.1435 area down to 1.1364 in a clean impulsive leg, breaking the earlier 1.1410-1.1435 range despite the in-line hawkish ECB hold. Price is grinding a shallow bounce off the 1.1364 session low with RSI(14) recovering from the low-30s; lower-high structure into 1.1386 still intact.
Support: 1.1364, 1.13677
Resistance: 1.1379, 1.13859, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.1379 needed to challenge the 1.1386 lower high
Break below 1.1364 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Fri Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) could reset this read
EUR sold off sharply through the London-NY session, breaking the 1.1400 shelf and cascading to a session low at 1.13636 as oil-driven safe-haven USD demand overwhelmed the hawkish-ECB hold. Price is grinding sideways near 1.1373, RSI(14) recovering off extremes but structure remains a chain of lower highs.
Support: 1.13636, 1.13673
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1402
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.13850 would ease the selloff and stall the lower-high sequence
Break below 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low structure
Fri Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended · RSI 34 · price 1.13711
Lower highs and lower lows since London-NY transition.
NY session drove EUR/USD from 1.1435 down through the 1.1400 support to a session low of 1.13636 as the USD safe-haven bid firmed. Price is stalling near 1.1370 with RSI(14) cooling toward oversold; the 1.13860 swing high caps the current bounce.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1405
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.13860 would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near session low.
Sharp NY-session selloff dragged EUR/USD from 1.1420 down to a session low of 1.13636, slicing through ING's 1.1380 downside pivot. Price is now consolidating in the 1.1365-1.1385 zone with RSI recovering off oversold; bounce high at 1.13860 and swing high at 1.13790 cap the recovery.
Support: 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1379, 1.1386, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.13860 bounce high would negate downside continuation
Reclaim of 1.14000 psych needed to repair the lower-high structure
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session from the 1.1435 area to a session low at 1.1364, breaking the prior 1.1410-1.1435 range with RSI(14) around 33. Price is now stalling just above the low, holding below stacked EMAs.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1364 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1385 would ease the breakdown read
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could reset this intraday read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended lower · RSI 33 · price 1.1368
Lower highs, lower lows.
NY session drove a clean break below the 1.1400 psych level, EUR/USD sliding to a 1.1364 session low with RSI(14) near 32. ECB held at 2.25% in line, but a >25% oil rally and Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines have carried a USD safe-haven bid through the afternoon. Price is consolidating just off the lows around 1.1368.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 psych would neutralise the breakout read
Failure to hold 1.1364 opens the path toward 1.1350
Friday Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) are the next big test
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session, slicing the 1.1400 handle and breaking the day's range to print a low at 1.13636, driven by the USD safe-haven bid on oil/Hormuz headlines. RSI(14) near 31 shows the leg is stretched, with a shallow bounce off the session low; 1.13856 caps the recovery so far.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.13856, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13856 would ease the immediate downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs (Fri 07:15 UTC) could shift this read
NY session drove a sharp sell-off, EUR/USD breaking below the 1.1380 pivot flagged in the ECB digest as USD safe-haven demand firmed, printing a fresh low at 1.13636. RSI(14) near 29 shows short-term oversold conditions but no reversal yet; price is pinned just above the session low.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1378
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13780 would ease downside pressure and break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation lower toward 1.13600
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR sold off hard through the NY session, breaking down from 1.1435 to a swing low at 1.13677 as the ECB hold and Lagarde tone failed to sustain the hawkish premium against a firm USD. RSI(14) sits near 33 after the drop; price is grinding just above the low with 1.1380 now acting as pivot.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.14248
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1380 pivot would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.13677 confirms continuation to the 1.1350 psych level
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR sold off hard through the NY session, breaking down from the 1.1410–1.1435 range and shedding ~70 pips into 1.1367 as the ECB hold gave way to USD safe-haven demand. Price is pinned near the session low 1.13677 with RSI(14) around 31; ATR has expanded to ~94 pips.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1409
What it said to watch
A close below 1.13677 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.13850 would stall the breakdown
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off sharply through the NY session, unwinding hawkish-hold premium after a soft-read Lagarde and breaking below ING's 1.1380 pivot toward a session low at 1.13677. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not extreme; the bounce to 1.13856 was rejected, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13856
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13856 would negate the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.13677 confirms continuation lower
EU Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could extend the move
EUR sold off sharply through the NY session, giving back the day's gains from 1.1435 down to a 1.13677 swing low, RSI(14) pressed into the low 30s. A weak bounce to 1.13860 stalled and price is back near the lows; sellers still control the intraday structure.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.14042
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.13860 breaks the descending sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.13677 confirms continuation lower
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15-08:00 UTC could reset this read
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, sharp selloff into NY · RSI 32 · price 1.13769
Lower highs, lower lows; range breakdown.
After a session consolidating 1.1410–1.1435, EUR broke down hard through NY hours as Lagarde's tone unwound the hawkish premium, printing 1.13677 before a shallow bounce to 1.1377. Momentum is one-directional with RSI(14) near 31 and price well below EMA20/50; the 1.13859 reclaim is the first sign of a stall.
Support: 1.13753, 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13859, 1.13944, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.13859 would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.13677 confirms continuation lower
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could reshape this read
EUR/USD unwound its ECB-day gains, sliding from the 1.1435 session high to a fresh session low at 1.13677 through NY hours as safe-haven USD demand reasserted. RSI(14) at 31.5 is soft but not extreme; a shallow bounce off the low stalled at 1.13859.
Support: 1.13677
Resistance: 1.13859, 1.14042, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13859 bounce high needed to ease downside pressure
Break below 1.13677 session low extends the lower-low sequence
EUR unwound its pre-ECB bid through the NY session, sliding from 1.1435 to a session low of 1.13677 with RSI(14) near 32 after an as-expected ECB hold left Lagarde's tone as the driver. Sellers accelerated into the last three bars; a shallow bounce off 1.13677 has so far stalled below 1.13860.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.14055, 1.14354
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.13860 stalls the down leg
Sustained break below 1.13677 opens the path toward 1.13500
EU Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp selloff · RSI 30 · price 1.13776
Lower lows, range breakdown.
EUR/USD unwound its hawkish premium through the NY session, breaking the 1.1410 range and slicing below 1.1400 to a session low of 1.1368 — matching the dovish-Lagarde 1.1380 scenario. Price bounced to 1.1378 with RSI(14) near 29 (oversold); the descending sequence of lower highs remains intact.
Support: 1.13677, 1.13753
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1400, 1.14055
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13950 swing high would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.13677 session low confirms continuation lower
EU Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD unwound its ECB hawkish premium during NY hours, breaking clean through the 1.1380 area and printing a session low at 1.13677 with RSI(14) near 27. The move is one-directional off the 1.14354 high; each bounce has capped lower, last near 1.13950.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1405
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.13677 opens the 1.13500 round number
Reclaim of 1.13950 bounce high would ease the downside pressure
Fri Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) could reset this read
EUR broke down hard through 1.1405 during NY hours, unwinding the hawkish-hold premium after the ECB/Lagarde, and now sits at session lows near 1.1369 with RSI(14) oversold sub-30. The 1.1410–1.1435 consolidation gave way cleanly; prior range floor at 1.1405 flipped to resistance.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400, 1.1405
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13850 would ease the downside pressure
Close below 1.13677 extends the lower-low sequence
Fri Eurozone/US flash PMIs could reshape this read
EUR/USD broke down through 1.1400 during NY hours after the Lagarde presser, printing fresh session lows at 1.13753 as the hawkish-hold leaning was disappointed. RSI(14) near 30 and price trades well below both EMAs; the 1.14000 round number now caps.
Support: 1.13753, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13944, 1.1400, 1.14042
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14000 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.13753 confirms continuation lower
Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 GMT could extend the move
EUR/USD sold off through the NY session, breaking the 1.1400 round number and printing a fresh session low at 1.13753 as a neutral/disappointing Lagarde presser undercut a leaning-hawkish market. Move aligns with ING's 1.1380 target; RSI(14) near 30 and stretched after five straight down-legs.
Support: 1.13753, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14000 would negate the intraday breakout
Failure to hold 1.13753 confirms continuation lower
Lagarde presser aftermath still filtering through — headline risk elevated
EUR/USD sold off hard through the NY session, breaking the 1.1405 intraday floor and printing 1.13767 as the Lagarde presser disappointed a leaning-hawkish market. RSI(14) near 22 shows the move is short-term stretched; a shallow bounce to 1.1394 was rejected before the fresh low.
Support: 1.13767, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1396, 1.14055, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Lagarde presser ongoing — further dovish tone extends the leg lower
Reclaim of 1.13960 bounce high needed to stall the lower-low sequence
EUR/USD dropped sharply off the 1.14354 session high into 1.13767 as the Lagarde presser hit the wires, tracking ING's 1.1380 target after a neutral read disappointed a leaning-hawkish market. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 25 with the move still extending; price closed on the lows at 1.13779.
Support: 1.13767, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1396, 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13960 bounce high would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.13767 confirms continuation of lower lows toward 1.1350
Ongoing Lagarde Q&A can whip this read within the next bars
EUR/USD sold off sharply through NY hours, breaking the 1.1400 psych level after a dovish-leaning ECB read and printing a fresh session low at 1.13807. RSI(14) is deep at ~26, short-term oversold, with the last bounce capped at 1.13950.
Support: 1.13807
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1400, 1.1435
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14000 psych would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.13807 session low confirms continuation lower
Lagarde press conference / US jobless claims aftermath still driving flow
EUR/USD sold off hard through the 1.1400 pivot during NY hours as Lagarde's tone unwound stretched EUR longs, printing a session low at 1.13807. RSI(14) near 27 flags a short-term oversold condition after the sharp leg down.
Support: 1.13807, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 pivot would neutralise the downside break
Loss of 1.1380 mark confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Post-ECB Lagarde headlines could extend or reverse this move
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg down · RSI 29 · price 1.13892
Range break lower, lower highs/lows.
EUR/USD dumped through the 1.1400 pivot into the ECB decision, printing a session low at 1.1383 as stretched longs unwound; RSI(14) sits oversold near 28. The prior 1.1420-1.1435 range top gave way and 1.1400 now caps from above.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.14005, 1.1406
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 pivot would neutralise the downside break
Lagarde press conference at 12:45 GMT is the live catalyst and could sharply shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1383 opens the path to the 1.1380 psych marker
EUR/USD broke hard below the 1.1400 pivot into the ECB decision, printing a fresh session low at 1.13832 as stretched EUR longs unwound on Lagarde's dovish read. RSI(14) near 30 shows the move is stretched short-term, but every prior 1.1420-1.1430 cap held before the flush.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.14000 would invalidate the breakdown read
Lagarde press conference at 12:45 GMT can materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1380 confirms continuation lower
EUR/USD sold off hard into the London-NY window, breaking the 1.1400 pivot and printing a session low at 1.13832 as stretched EUR longs unwound around the ECB decision and Lagarde. RSI(14) near 30 shows the move is short-term extended; the late bounce to 1.13929 has yet to reclaim broken support.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.14055, 1.14168, 1.1435
What it said to watch
Lagarde press conference (12:45 GMT) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.14055 would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.13800 confirms continuation lower
EUR/USD sold off hard into the ECB, breaking from the 1.1420-1.1430 cap down to a 1.13832 session low — matching ING's 1.1380 downside marker as stretched EUR longs unwound. Price is bouncing modestly to 1.13929 with RSI near 35, but structure remains a clean sequence of lower highs.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.14042, 1.14168
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser 12:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaim above 1.14042 would negate the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.13800 confirms extension of the down leg
EURUSD broke down out of the 1.1408-1.1435 session range, dropping sharply to 1.13832 into the ECB event window as EUR longs unwound. RSI(14) near 28 flags a stretched move; price now sits just above the 1.1380 ING support.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1380, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.14168, 1.1435, 1.1430
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.14168 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1380 opens the path to 1.1360
ECB decision and Lagarde presser imminent — could materially shift this read
EURUSD broke down out of the 1.1405–1.1435 range with a sharp two-bar selloff into the ECB decision, printing a session low at 1.13832; RSI(14) is stretched toward oversold near 25. The drop came ahead of the 12:15 GMT ECB hold and Lagarde presser, so this is positioning ahead of a live catalyst rather than a settled trend.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1405, 1.1420
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser ~12:45 GMT are imminent and can materially reset this read
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.1435 session high and sold through the 1.1400 psych level into the ECB decision, printing a fresh session low at 1.1397 with RSI(14) near 30. Move is USD-side consolidation ahead of the 12:15 GMT ECB hold and Lagarde presser — the real catalyst.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1417, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser 12:45 GMT will override this structure
Failure to reclaim 1.1400 keeps the lower-low sequence intact
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.14354 session high and sold off steadily into a fresh low at 1.13969 ahead of the ECB decision, RSI(14) pressed near 27. Move breaks the London range floor and stacks lower highs; buyers have yet to defend into the psych 1.1400 area.
Support: 1.13969, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde 12:45 GMT within the hour could materially shift this read
Hold below 1.13969 opens the path toward 1.1380
Reclaim of 1.14100 negates the lower-low sequence
11:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend off session high · RSI 38 · price 1.14047
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.14354 peak.
EUR/USD peeled off the 1.14354 session high through a stair-step of lower highs and lows, now pinned at 1.14047 just above the 1.14021 session low into the ECB decision. RSI(14) near 38, price under both EMAs; USD-driven consolidation rather than fresh EUR selling.
Support: 1.14021, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14145, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser 12:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Close below 1.14021 confirms the lower-low sequence and opens 1.14000
Reclaim of 1.14145 challenges the descending sequence
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, pulling off session high · RSI 37 · price 1.14047
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.14354 peak.
EUR rolled over from the 1.14354 session high and slid to a 1.14021 low ahead of the ECB decision, RSI(14) cooling toward 36 without hitting oversold. Price is pinned near session lows below EMA20/50, capped on bounces around 1.14100.
Support: 1.14021, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1417, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde 12:45 GMT within the hour can override this structural read
Break below 1.14021 opens the path toward 1.1380
Reclaim of 1.14100 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
EUR/USD poked above the 1.1420-1.1430 cap to a session high 1.14354 during NY hours then rejected hard, unwinding the entire move back to 1.1404 into the ECB decision. RSI(14) near 33 as the sell-off accelerates toward the round-number support.
Support: 1.14029, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde 12:45 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1400 confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap negates the rejection
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, near session lows · RSI 34 · price 1.14037
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.14354.
EUR/USD rolled over from the 1.14354 session high and broke the 1.14195 support, now pressing the 1.14029 session low with RSI(14) near 33. This is USD-driven consolidation into the ECB decision rather than fresh EUR weakness; sellers control the last 6 hours.
Support: 1.14029, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.14195, 1.1426, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser ~12:45 GMT within the next 1-2h will likely override the intraday structure
Break below 1.14029 exposes the 1.13800 ing support zone
Reclaim of 1.14195 broken support would neutralise the lower-high sequence
10:46 UTC
Downtrend off session high · RSI 38 · price 1.14055
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.1435.
London session faded the 1.1435 session high, price bleeding lower through the 1.1419 swing and now pinned at the session low near 1.14055, RSI(14) sub-40. Momentum is down and price sits below both EMAs, holding just above the 1.1400 round number ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.14055, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1414, 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read within the next hour
Close below 1.14000 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.14140 prior swing neutralises the intraday downtrend
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, rolling off session high · RSI 37 · price 1.14055
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.14354.
EURUSD rejected the 1.1430 cap at 1.14354 and stair-stepped lower into 1.14055, printing lower highs through the London session with RSI(14) near 36. Price now sits on the session low with EMA20/50 overhead, ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.14055, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14145, 1.1425, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision ~12:15 GMT and Lagarde ~12:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Close below 1.14000 confirms the lower-low extension
Reclaim of 1.14145 needed to challenge the downtrend
10:32 UTC
Pullback from session high, momentum down · RSI 41 · price 1.14095
Lower highs after 1.1435 peak, testing session low.
EUR/USD faded from the session high at 1.14354 back toward 1.1407, with the 1.1420-1.1430 cap rejected twice during the run-up. Price now grinding just above the 1.14056 session low into the ECB decision, RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 1.14056, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision ~1.5h away plus Lagarde presser is the key catalyst — can materially shift this read
Close below 1.14056 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1380
Reclaim of the 1.14200 cap needed to reverse the lower-high sequence
10:32 UTC
Reversal lower off session high · RSI 43 · price 1.14095
Lower high then lower low, consolidating near lows.
London hours saw a sharp rejection of the session high at 1.14354, price sliding to 1.14066 before stabilising around 1.14095. Move is USD-side consolidation into today's ECB decision; RSI cooled to the mid-40s and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser 12:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.14200 negates the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.14066 opens the 1.14000 round number
10:17 UTC
Pullback from session high · RSI 43 · price 1.14099
Reversed off 1.1435, lower low into London.
EURUSD rejected the 1.14354 session high and sold off through London, tagging 1.14066 before a shallow bounce back to 1.14100. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI recovering off the lows near 43; the 1.1420 cap flagged pre-ECB is now overhead resistance.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC (~2h out) could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.14066 confirms a lower-low extension toward 1.1400
Reclaim of 1.14200 cap needed to revisit the session high
10:16 UTC
Pulled back from session high, short-term soft · RSI 44 · price 1.14099
Lower highs off 1.1435, bounce off 1.1407.
EURUSD was rejected at 1.14354 and sold off through the London-NY window into 1.14066 before stabilising near 1.1410. Price is back below EMA20/50, capped under the 1.1420 pivot with RSI(14) mid-40s after the fade.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.1420 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.14066 opens a move toward the 1.1400 pivot
Lower high after rejection at 1.1435, holding above session low.
London drove EURUSD to a session high of 1.14354 before a sharp rejection dumped price to the 1.14066 session low. A modest bounce has stalled at a lower high near 1.14145, still capped well below the 1.1420 ECB cap into the decision.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14145, 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap needed to reopen the 1.14354 session high
Close below the 1.14066 session low confirms a lower low
10:02 UTC
Pullback from session high, momentum rolled over · RSI 44 · price 1.14123
Lower highs since 1.14354, holding above 1.14066.
EUR/USD faded from the 1.14354 session high through London hours, with a sharp drop to 1.14066 before a shallow bounce; price is now consolidating around 1.1412, capped under the 1.1420 area context flags. RSI(14) mid-40s and price below EMA20 — short-term momentum has rolled over ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC — key catalyst that can reset this read
Close back above 1.14200 negates the pullback
Break below 1.14066 confirms a lower low
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 43 · price 1.14138
Lower highs off session peak, low swept then reclaimed.
EUR/USD rallied through London to a 1.14354 session high then reversed, sweeping the 1.14066 low before a shallow bounce to 1.14138 — now capped under the 1.1420 area with EMA20/50 overhead. Move is corrective ahead of the ECB decision; RSI(14) mid-range near 43, ATR tight at ~4.6 pips.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap needed to reopen the path to the session high
Close below 1.14066 session low confirms a fresh lower low
EURUSD twin-topped at 1.1435 then sold off sharply to 1.14066 before a shallow bounce back to 1.1414, keeping price below EMA20/50. Move stalls under the well-flagged 1.1420 cap ahead of the ECB decision, with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision (~2.5h) plus Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.1420 cap would reopen the 1.1435 session high
Failure to hold 1.14066 confirms a lower low toward the 1.1400 pivot
09:32 UTC
Uptrend rejected, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 1.14104
Lower high after break of intraday range.
Price pushed to a session high near 1.14354, was rejected twice, then broke sharply lower through the 1.14190 shelf to 1.14066 before a shallow bounce to 1.14104. RSI(14) cooled to the low-40s and price now sits below EMA20/50; the ECB decision at 12:15 GMT is the dominant catalyst ahead.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1402
Resistance: 1.1419, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser can override this structure
EUR rejected the session high at 1.14354 and sold off sharply to 1.14066 over the last two hours, RSI cooling to the low 40s. A modest bounce to 1.14104 has stalled below the 1.14168 swing; ECB decision ahead is the dominant catalyst.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14168, 1.1425, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Break below 1.14066 opens the 1.1400 psych level
Reclaim of 1.14168 negates the downside leg
ECB decision 12:15 GMT could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Pullback, momentum down · RSI 43 · price 1.1411
Rejected session high, testing lows.
EUR/USD rejected the 1.1435 session high and slid to 1.1407 through the London morning, RSI(14) near 42 after the drop. Price is holding just above the session low into the ECB decision, with the 1.1420 cap unbroken.
Support: 1.1407, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT + Lagarde presser is the dominant catalyst and can shift this read entirely
Loss of 1.1407 opens the path toward 1.1400
Reclaim of 1.1420 cap negates the pullback
09:17 UTC
Rolled over from highs, near-term down · RSI 41 · price 1.1411
Lower high after failed push to session high.
EUR pushed to a session high at 1.1435 through London then reversed sharply, dumping to 1.1407 before a small bounce to 1.1411; the 1.1420 cap flagged in the ECB read held again. RSI(14) cooled to ~40 as the up-leg unwound, price now below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read within 3h
close back above 1.1420 cap reopens the session high at 1.1435
loss of 1.14066 session low confirms continuation lower toward 1.1400
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, London selloff · RSI 38 · price 1.14101
Lower highs, retraced full rally.
EUR/USD topped at 1.1435 in early hours then sold off through London to 1.1407, fully unwinding the overnight rally and printing lower highs. Price now hugs the 1.1407 session low with RSI(14) near 37; the 1.1420 cap flagged repeatedly is back overhead ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1407, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC a near-term catalyst
Loss of 1.1400 psych confirms extension lower
M15 close back above 1.1420 cap invalidates the downtrend read
EUR/USD was rejected at the 1.14354 session high and sold off sharply through the London morning, printing a 1.14066 low before stabilising near 1.1410. RSI(14) cooled into the high-30s as the pair unwound the whole prior up-leg ahead of today's ECB decision.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.14066 confirms a lower low toward 1.1400
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap negates the breakdown
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend off session high · RSI 34 · price 1.1409
Rejected at 1.1435, rolling into a lower low.
London morning rallied to a 1.14354 session high then rolled over, sliding back through the 1.1420 cap and now sub-1.1410 into the ECB decision. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-30s as price prints a fresh lower low near 1.1406.
Support: 1.1406, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Close below 1.1400 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap needed to reopen the 1.1435 session high
08:47 UTC
Intraday reversal lower off session high · RSI 36 · price 1.1409
Rejected at 1.1435, lower highs forming.
London push tagged a session high at 1.1435 before a sharp reversal dragged EUR/USD back to 1.1409, RSI(14) cooling toward 36. The 1.1420 cap flagged repeatedly held again; price is now testing the 1.1407 session low ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1407, 1.1400, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1407 confirms a lower-low, exposes 1.1400 pivot then 1.1380
Reclaim of 1.1420 invalidates the reversal read
08:32 UTC
Pullback after rally rejection · RSI 41 · price 1.14163
Lower highs off 1.1435 peak.
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1420 cap overnight and peaked at 1.14354 before rolling over through the London morning, printing lower highs back to 1.14163 — right on the 61.8% retrace of the rally. RSI has cooled toward 40 and price sits back below EMA20/50 ahead of today's ECB decision.
Support: 1.14156, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially reshape this read
Loss of 1.14156 session low opens the 1.1400 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.1420 cap needed to re-engage the session high
08:32 UTC
Pullback from session high, momentum down · RSI 38 · price 1.14163
Lower highs off 1.1435, retracing the London push.
EUR/USD pushed to a session high near 1.1435 in the London session then rolled over, printing lower highs back to 1.1416 and slipping under EMA20/EMA50. The 1.1420 cap flagged repeatedly held again, and price is now sitting on the ~50-61.8% retrace of the 1.1400-1.1435 leg with RSI cooling near 37 into the ECB decision.
Support: 1.14156, 1.1400, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14351
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC (~4h) and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.1420 negates the rejection and reopens 1.1435
Failure to hold 1.14156 exposes the 1.1400 pivot then 1.1380
08:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.14191
Lower highs off session high.
NY leg pushed to a session high at 1.1435 and was twice rejected (double top), and price has since faded to 1.14191, near the 50% retrace of the London-NY move. Still capped below the 1.1420 ECB cap with the base at 1.1411 the next reference lower.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1404
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1420 reopens the 1.1435 session high
Loss of 1.1411 base confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.1404 session low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could reshape this read
London session pushed EUR through the 1.1420 cap to a 1.14354 session high before fading back to 1.14191, now retesting that cap from above. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s as the pullback drains the up-leg's momentum.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1404
Resistance: 1.1421, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 1.14210 keeps the breakout in question
Loss of 1.14100 confirms a lower-low and negates the breakout
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.14238
Lower highs off session high.
London session pushed to a high of 1.14354 before rejecting, price now drifting to 1.14238 on a chain of lower highs. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range and price has slipped below EMA20 while holding above the 1.14060 range low; the 1.14420 cap from earlier this week is still untested.
Support: 1.14195, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1442
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC (~4h) is the next catalyst and could reshape this read
Close back above 1.14354 reopens the path toward the 1.14420 cap
Loss of 1.14195 confirms a lower low and extends the pullback
08:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 46 · price 1.14238
Session high rejected, retracing.
London session drove EURUSD through the 1.1420 cap to a session high at 1.14354 before fading back to 1.14195; price now sits at 1.14238 with RSI(14) cooling toward mid-range. The pullback holds above the rising lows, keeping the earlier advance intact for now.
Support: 1.14195, 1.1415
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1430
What it said to watch
ECB decision (12:15 UTC) + Lagarde presser (12:45 UTC) in ~4-5h could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.14195 confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising support
Reclaim of 1.14354 session high reopens the upside
07:47 UTC
Uptrend stalling on pullback · RSI 44 · price 1.14221
Retesting 1.1420 cap from above after NY rally.
EURUSD rallied through the NY session on the 22nd to a 1.14354 session high, then drifted back through the Asian range and is now retesting the 1.1420 cap from above, sitting right on the 38.2% fib of the up-move. RSI(14) has cooled into the mid-40s as momentum flags into the London session.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1410, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1430
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1420 opens 1.1410 then 1.1400
Reclaim of 1.14354 resumes the upside
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could reshape this read
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 1.14221
London high posted, retracing off session high.
London broke above the Asian range and printed a session high at 1.14354, now retracing to 1.14221 and slipping under EMA20. Move stalls into the 1.1420 cap flagged pre-ECB, with buyers so far holding the 1.14215 area.
Support: 1.14215, 1.1416, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.1429, 1.14354
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14215 opens the 1.14160 swing low
Reclaim of 1.14290 reopens the 1.14354 session high
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC can override this intraday read
07:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 47 · price 1.14252
Higher highs into rejection, pulling back.
Asian session pushed EURUSD to a 1.14354 session high before the London open faded it back to 1.1425, holding the 38.2% retrace of the run off 1.14001. RSI(14) near 47 as momentum cools; pair sits in the well-flagged 1.1400-1.1420 macro band.
Support: 1.14218, 1.1417, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14354, 1.1442
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.14218 opens the 1.14170 prior range
Reclaim of 1.14354 targets the 1.1420 cap
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, pullback in progress · RSI 48 · price 1.14252
Higher highs into session high, now easing.
EUR climbed off the 1.14060 base through the London session to a high at 1.14354, then eased back to 1.14252 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s. Price now hovers below EMA20 but holds above EMA50; the 1.14218 swing low is the near-term pivot ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.14218, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14218 confirms a lower-low and unwinds the intraday uptrend
Reclaim of 1.14300 reopens the 1.14354 session high
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London push lifted EUR to a session high of 1.14354 before fading back to 1.14265, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought toward mid-range. Price now sits between the session high and the 1.14218 session low, holding above the earlier 1.14100 range as it drifts ahead of the ECB.
Support: 1.14218, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC (~5h) and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.14218 confirms a lower low and breaks the intraday uptrend
Reclaim above 1.14354 session high reopens the path higher
London session drove a HH chain to a 1.14354 session high before stalling; price has retraced to 1.14265 with RSI(14) cooling back toward the midline and dipping under EMA20. The 1.14218 swing low is the near pivot for the pullback. ECB decision at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 12:45 UTC sit just ahead.
Support: 1.14218, 1.1417
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14354
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14218 confirms a deeper pullback and breaks the intraday HL chain
Reclaim of 1.14300 pivot puts the 1.14354 session high back in play
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD pushed above the 1.1420 cap into the London open, printing a session high at 1.1435 before easing back to 1.14250. RSI(14) has cooled to neutral and price is now retesting the former cap as support ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1408, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1465
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC are the key catalysts and could reshape this read
Loss of 1.1420 reopens 1.1408 swing low
M15 close above 1.1435 session high opens the path to 1.1465
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after push · RSI 53 · price 1.1425
Higher highs into session top, minor pullback.
London open extended the grind higher, clearing the 1.1420 cap and printing a session high at 1.1435 before easing back to 1.1425. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 50s on the pullback; the 1.1420 area is now being retested from above ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14156, 1.1405
Resistance: 1.1435
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens 1.14156
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London session pushed EURUSD through the 1.1420 cap to a session high at 1.1435, RSI(14) cooling from the rally as price eased back to 1.1426. The broken cap at 1.1420 is now the retest zone; structure stays constructive while it holds.
Support: 1.1424, 1.1420, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1465
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1420 invalidates the breakout and reopens 1.1406
Reclaim of 1.1435 puts 1.1465 in view
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Rally cleared the 1.1420 cap through the London-NY stretch into a 1.14354 session high before rejecting and pulling back to 1.14262, dipping under EMA20 as the move cooled. RSI(14) has unwound from its highs to mid-range; the 1.1424 swing low is the near-term pivot. ECB decision at 12:15 UTC is the key catalyst ahead.
Support: 1.1424, 1.1417, 1.1409
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1430
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1424 opens the path back to the 1.1417 breakout zone
Close above 1.14354 resumes the intraday uptrend
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia into early London pushed EURUSD through the 1.1420 cap to a session high at 1.1435, clearing the level flagged into today's ECB hold. Price is now consolidating around 1.1428 with RSI back to mid-range after the run; 1.1420 flipped from cap to support on the pullback.
Support: 1.14267, 1.1420, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.14301
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below 1.1420 puts the breakout into false-break territory
Reclaim of 1.14354 reopens the path toward 1.1465
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back · RSI 55 · price 1.14276
Higher highs, retracing off session high.
Asian session cleared the 1.1420 cap and ran to a session high at 1.14354, now retracing to the 38.2% fib near 1.14276. Move stalled and pulled back into EMA20; the 1.1420 prior cap is now the first zone to watch as support on the retest.
Support: 1.1423, 1.1417, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.1420 puts the breakout into false-break territory
Reclaim of 1.14354 reopens the intraday high
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / Lagarde 12:45 UTC could override this read
EUR broke the 1.1420 cap during the Asian session and ran to 1.14354, now consolidating in the low-1.1430s ahead of today's ECB. RSI(14) mid-range after the push; the prior cap at 1.1420 flipping into first support.
Support: 1.1428, 1.1420, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1450
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC will drive the next leg
Loss of 1.1420 reopens the 1.1380/1.1360 drift noted pre-ECB
Higher highs into consolidation below session high.
Early London push cleared the 1.1420 cap and tagged 1.14354, a fresh session high, RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s. Price is now consolidating around 1.1430 above EMA20/50, holding the 1.14282 swing low.
Support: 1.14282, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14282 opens a retest of the 1.1420 prior cap
M15 close above 1.14354 extends the session high
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could override this intraday read
London session pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1420 cap flagged into ECB, tagging a session high at 1.14354 before easing to 1.1431. RSI cooling from the rally with price holding above the broken cap; 1.14283 the near swing low.
Support: 1.14283, 1.1420, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1440
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens the 1.1410 swing low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD cleared the 1.1420 cap during the London-NY window and ran to a session high of 1.14354, now consolidating in the low 1.143s with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s. Buyers held the 1.14283 pullback low; the breakout above 1.1420 remains intact.
Support: 1.14283, 1.1420, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens the 1.1405 swing low
A close above 1.14354 extends the uptrend
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could override this read
EURUSD ground higher through the Asian session, clearing the 1.1420 cap to tag a session high at 1.14354 before easing to 1.14297. RSI(14) cooling off the high on a shallow pullback that so far holds above 1.14283; the breakout is being retested rather than rejected.
Support: 1.14283, 1.1420, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens the 1.1405 swing low
Failure to reclaim 1.14354 keeps the session high as the near-term ceiling
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1420 cap flagged into the ECB hold, running an Asia-session rally to 1.14354 before easing to 1.14296. RSI(14) around 62 and cooling as price consolidates just under the session high.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14068, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens the 1.14068 base
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
Asian session cleared the 1.1420 cap flagged by the ECB-hold read, tagging a session high at 1.14354 before easing to 1.14296. RSI(14) cooling from the push but structure of higher lows off 1.14050 intact; 1.1420 now the retest reference.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1417, 1.1405
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14200 on close reopens the 1.14170 swing and negates the breakout
EU flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could shift this read
Reclaim of 1.14354 extends the intraday higher-high chain
EUR/USD ground higher through the Asian session and broke the 1.1420 cap flagged in the news, tagging a session high at 1.14354 before easing to 1.14306. RSI(14) near 62 and cooling; the broken cap around 1.1420 now sits below as first support.
Support: 1.1423, 1.1420, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14200 would reopen the 1.14001 session low
M15 close above 1.14354 extends the breakout leg
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 1.14306
Higher highs, shallow pullbacks.
Asian session ground higher, breaking above the 1.1420 area and printing a session high at 1.14354 before a minor stall into 1.14306. RSI(14) cooling from mid-60s as the last bar pulls back, but the higher-high chain and rising support hold intact.
Support: 1.1423, 1.14172, 1.1409
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1440
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1423 pullback low would break the rising support and end the higher-low chain
Close above 1.14354 session high extends the breakout toward 1.1440
ECB decision later today is the key EUR driver and could reshape this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending into session high · RSI 66 · price 1.14325
Chain of higher highs / higher lows.
Asian session pushed a clean HH/HL run from 1.1406 to a session high at 1.14354, clearing the well-watched 1.1420 cap. RSI(14) around 66, hot but not extreme; price consolidating just under the high at 1.14325.
Support: 1.1428, 1.1420, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1450
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.14280 breaks the near-term higher-low chain
Sustained hold above 1.14354 opens the path toward 1.1450
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, pushing session high · RSI 68 · price 1.14325
Higher highs and higher lows off 1.1405.
EURUSD ground higher through Asian hours, breaking the 1.1420 cap and printing a session high at 1.1435 with RSI(14) firm near 68 but not extreme. Higher-low structure off 1.1405 intact; the prior 1.1428 breakout shelf is the nearest support.
Support: 1.1428, 1.14156, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and reopens 1.1416
Failure to hold 1.1428 confirms a stall at the session high
EUR broke clear of the 1.1400-1.1420 cap and ran to a session high of 1.14354, RSI(14) hot near 71. The move is one-directional off the 1.14052 base with shallow pullbacks; last bar is thin and consolidating just under the high.
Support: 1.1423, 1.1417, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14354
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.14230 breaks the rising sequence
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 71 · price 1.14317
Higher highs, higher lows since the 1.1406 base.
Late Asia extended a steady grind higher, clearing the 1.1420 cap and printing a session high at 1.14354 before easing to 1.14317. RSI(14) around 71 shows the move is hot but not extreme; pullback low at 1.14280 holding so far.
Support: 1.1428, 1.1417, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1440
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.14280 would stall the higher-high sequence
Failure to reclaim 1.14354 after a dip signals momentum fading
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could reset this read
Asian session pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1420 cap to a 1.1435 session high, RSI(14) hot near 71 on thin overnight volumes. Steady HH/HL chain off the 1.1400 swing low; the breakout is holding so far with 1.1420 now acting as prior cap turned support.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1410, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1465
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1420 back into range would flag a false break
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC — main catalyst that could reshape this read
A close above 1.1435 session high opens the path toward 1.1465
Chain of higher highs and higher lows, fresh breakout.
EURUSD cleared the well-worn 1.1420 cap during the Asia-to-London handoff and printed a session high at 1.1435, RSI(14) hot near 74. Buyers stepped in repeatedly along the rising low chain from 1.1406; the former cap now sits as first support.
Support: 1.14197, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back below 1.1420 breakout lvl invalidates the break
Failure to hold above 1.1420 puts 1.1405 swing low back in play
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, breakout in progress · RSI 72 · price 1.14338
Higher highs, broke 1.1420 cap.
Asia session pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1420 cap that had held all day, printing a session high 1.1435 with RSI(14) running hot near 72. The move clears the low-1.14 churn noted pre-ECB, but the decision at 12:15 UTC is the dominant catalyst still ahead.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14351, 1.1450
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + presser 12:45 UTC could override this breakout read
Close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and returns price to prior range
Sustained hold above 1.1435 opens the path toward 1.1450
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1420 cap that held all through the Asian range, extending to a session high near 1.1435 with RSI(14) running hot around 74. The prior ceiling now sits as first support ahead of ECB.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1411, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1435
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1420 on a close puts price back inside the prior range
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, breakout leg extending · RSI 71 · price 1.14287
Higher highs after breaking the 1.1420 cap.
EURUSD cleared the 1.1420 cap that had held the entire prior session and printed a fresh high at 1.1430, RSI(14) hot near 71. The advance built through a steady chain of higher lows; 1.1420 now flips to first support.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14156, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14301, 1.1440
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC are the dominant catalysts and can reset this read
A slip back below 1.1420 puts price back inside the prior day's range
A close above 1.1430 opens the path toward 1.1440
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 70 · price 1.14287
Higher highs off 1.1406, breakout above 1.1420 cap.
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1420 cap through the Asia session and extended to 1.1430, RSI(14) elevated near 70. Clean higher-high chain off the 1.1406 swing low; 1.1420 now acts as the pivot the breakout leans on.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1406, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14301
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout, returning price to the prior low-1.14 range
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into session high, breakout above 1.1420.
Asian session pushed through the 1.1420 cap that held all through the prior day, extending to a session high 1.14296 with RSI(14) hot near 72. Clean higher-low chain since the 1.1406 base, no rejection at the highs yet.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1406, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.14200 would mark a false break of the prior cap
Failure to hold 1.14170 breaks the rising higher-low chain
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC could override this intraday read
EURUSD ground higher through the Asia session, clearing the 1.1420 cap that had held all of yesterday and printing a session high at 1.14296 into pre-ECB positioning. RSI(14) near 74 shows the leg is hot but that is normal within this run; the 1.1420 prior cap now acts as first support.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14056, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.1450
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14200 puts the breakout at risk and re-opens 1.14056
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + presser 12:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can override this intraday read
Acceptance above 1.14300 opens the path toward 1.14500
03:32 UTC
Uptrend, breakout leg · RSI 71 · price 1.1428
Higher highs, broke prior cap.
Asian session pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1420 cap that held all through the prior London-NY hours, tagging 1.14288 with RSI(14) near 71. The leg is thin — session volume is light into the close — but micro-structure is a clean breakout with higher highs above the 1.1400 pivot.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1408, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14288
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout, re-entering the prior low-1.14 range
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot confirms the breakout as a false break
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC could override this intraday structure
Asia session pushed EURUSD above the 1.1420 cap that held all of yesterday's low-1.14 band, printing a session high at 1.1429. RSI(14) is hot near 71 into the ECB day; the 1.1420 level flips to first support on any pullback.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1407, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1429
What it said to watch
Retest holding above 1.1420 confirms the breakout; a close back below negates it
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC are the dominant catalysts and could override this read
03:17 UTC
Uptrend, breakout in progress · RSI 71 · price 1.14236
Higher highs, broke above 1.1420 cap.
Asia session ground higher and cleared the 1.1420 cap that held through the prior session, printing a session high at 1.14288 before easing back to 1.14236. RSI(14) near 71, hot but consistent with the impulsive leg; the break is intact while price holds above 1.1420.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1407, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14288, 1.1440
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1420 keeps the breakout valid; a close back below negates the break
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot reopens the prior low-1.14 range
ECB decision later today (12:15 UTC) is the dominant catalyst that can reset this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, Asia breakout · RSI 71 · price 1.14236
Higher highs, above 1.1420 cap.
Asia session pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1420 cap that held all through London and NY, printing a session high at 1.14288 before easing to 1.14236, RSI(14) hot near 71. The move breaks the low-1.14 band that had pinned price ahead of ECB.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1407, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14288, 1.1450
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC are the dominant catalyst and can override this read
Failure to hold 1.1420 on a retest puts price back inside the prior range
Close above 1.14288 extends the breakout toward 1.1450
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, breakout leg extending · RSI 74 · price 1.14282
Higher highs after clearing 1.1420 cap.
Asia session cleared the 1.1420 cap that held all through July 22, printing a session high at 1.14288 with RSI(14) hot near 74. Rally came on thin Asian volume, so follow-through is untested ahead of today's ECB decision.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14114, 1.14058
Resistance: 1.14288
What it said to watch
Pullback holding above 1.1420 confirms the breakout as a retest
A close back below 1.1420 flags a false break
ECB decision today 12:15 UTC + press conference could reset this read
Late-session push cleared the 1.1420 cap that had capped EUR all window, printing a session high at 1.14288 with RSI(14) around 72. Prior swing lows have laddered higher off 1.14000; the move runs into the ECB hold due 12:15 UTC.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1410, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1429
What it said to watch
Retest of 1.1420 holding as support confirms the breakout
A slip back below 1.1417 would flag a false break
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + presser 12:45 UTC can materially shift this read
Asian session cleared the 1.1420 cap that repeatedly held over the prior 24h, printing 1.14256 with RSI(14) running hot near 74. Price closed at the highs after a clean push off the 1.1400 session low; the old cap at 1.1420 now flips to first support.
Support: 1.1420, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.1465
What it said to watch
A hold above 1.1420 keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it flags a false break
Next upside friction sits at the 1.1465 resistance zone
ECB decision (12:15 UTC) later today could override this intraday read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, breaking session cap · RSI 72 · price 1.14253
Break above 1.1420, fresh session high.
EUR/USD pushed through the 1.1420 cap that held all session, tagging a fresh high at 1.1426 into Asia hours with RSI(14) hot near 72. The 1.1400–1.1420 band that trapped price for most of the window has given way to a clean break higher.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1410, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1426, 1.1465
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.1420 turns the break into a false break and returns price to the prior range
1.1420 now the pivot — holding it on a retest keeps the breakout intact
ECB decision later today is the swing factor for follow-through above 1.1465
02:32 UTC
Grinding higher into the 1.1420 cap · RSI 66 · price 1.14211
Higher lows since session low, testing range top.
EUR/USD ground back up to retest the 1.1420 cap in thin Asian trade, printing a fresh session high at 1.14211 on collapsing volume. The move builds on higher lows off the 1.1400 session low, but 1.1420 has repeatedly rejected price this week and remains untested-through.
Support: 1.14109, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14212
What it said to watch
Clean M15 close above 1.1420 opens the 1.1465 resistance zone
Failure to hold 1.14109 exposes the 1.1400 session low
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC is the next major catalyst
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, testing cap · RSI 70 · price 1.14211
Higher highs into 1.1420 resistance.
Asian session ground higher off 1.14056 to poke through the 1.1420 cap at 1.14211, matching the prior swing high; RSI(14) near 70. The band that repeatedly capped price all session is being tested rather than cleanly broken.
Support: 1.1411, 1.14056
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1465
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1420 confirms breakout, opens the 1.1465 zone
Rejection back below 1.14110 keeps price inside the session range
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and press conference 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Grind higher into 1.1420 cap · RSI 63 · price 1.14181
Range 1.1400-1.1420, rising lows late.
Quiet Asian session grinding higher off 1.1400, price pressing the well-worn 1.1420 cap after tagging the 1.14212 session high. RSI(14) near 63, ATR thin at ~3 pips; the cap has rejected every attempt this window.
Support: 1.1416, 1.1410, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
Clean M15 close above 1.1420 opens the 1.1465 zone
Failure to hold 1.1410 returns price into the 1.1400 range base
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + press conference could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Grinding higher, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 1.14181
Range 1.1400-1.1420, testing cap.
Asia session ticked up to retest the 1.1420 cap, EUR pinned below five-week highs ahead of today's ECB hold. Price is holding a rising base off the 1.1400 range low with RSI(14) around 65 — hot but not extreme; the 1.1420 ceiling remains unbroken.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420
What it said to watch
A clean M15 close above 1.1420 invalidates the range-cap read and opens 1.1465
Loss of 1.1411 rising base exposes the 1.1400 range low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + press conference could materially shift this read
Asia session pushed EURUSD back toward the well-worn 1.1420 cap, tagging 1.14201 before easing to 1.14168 with RSI(14) cooling from the low-70s. That marks a second failed poke at 1.1420 (prior 1.14212), keeping the 1.1400-1.1420 range intact.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1400, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1420 invalidates the range cap and opens 1.1465
Loss of 1.1400 confirms a break below the rising intraday support
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read later today
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 63 · price 1.14168
Higher lows, tagging session high.
Asia session ground higher, breaking the overnight range and tagging a session high at 1.14201 before easing to 1.14168. Higher lows intact off 1.14052, but the 1.1420 macro cap is still holding as EUR consolidates into today's ECB.
Support: 1.14061, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14201, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14201 clears the 1.1420 cap and opens 1.1465
Loss of 1.14061 breaks the higher-low chain
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / presser 12:45 UTC will materially reset this read
01:47 UTC
Grinding higher into resistance · RSI 61 · price 1.14165
Range, testing top.
Thin Asian session grinding up off 1.14050 toward the 1.14200 cap, where price was rejected at 1.14201 on the last push. RSI(14) mid-60s, no extreme; pair stuck in the well-worn 1.1400–1.1420 band flagged into today's ECB.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1405, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14200 opens the path toward 1.1465
Loss of 1.14110 puts overnight low 1.14050 back in play
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / presser 12:45 UTC will override this intraday read
01:46 UTC
Micro-uptrend into cap · RSI 65 · price 1.14165
Grinding higher toward 1.1420 resistance.
Asia session ground higher off the 1.1405 base to retest the 1.1420 cap, printing 1.14201 before easing to 1.14165. RSI(14) around 64 — firm but not stretched; the 1.1420 area has capped every push and remains the level to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.1411, 1.14055, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1420 opens the path toward 1.1465
Loss of 1.14110 asia support reopens 1.1405 base
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian session grinding higher off the 1.14052 swing low, now pressing the 1.1420 cap that turned price back earlier in the window. RSI(14) near 66 with no extreme; price holds above both EMAs on a clean chain of higher lows.
Support: 1.14052, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the path toward 1.1465
Failure to hold 1.14052 breaks the rising support and negates the push
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / presser 12:45 UTC is the session's main volatility driver
01:31 UTC
Grinding higher into resistance · RSI 65 · price 1.14183
Higher lows, capped below 1.1420.
Asia session drifting higher on thin volume, price pressing the 1.14212 session high after buyers stepped in around 1.1405 through the overnight hours. RSI(14) near 65, firm but not extended; the 1.1420 cap flagged in the ECB run-up still holds.
Support: 1.1406, 1.14001
Resistance: 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the path toward the 1.1465 resistance zone
Failure to hold 1.14060 reopens 1.14001 prior low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and press conference 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Mild uptrend, grinding into cap · RSI 67 · price 1.14173
Higher lows, testing session high.
Grinding higher through thin Asian hours toward the 1.1420 cap, RSI(14) near 67. Buyers stepped in around 1.1405 repeatedly during the prior sessions and the break above the 1.1411 consolidation is holding into the session high.
Support: 1.1411, 1.14052, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14201, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the 1.1465 range top
Failure to hold 1.14052 reopens the 1.1400 pivot
ECB decision this week could reset the low-1.14 range
EURUSD ground through the low-1.14s all session before a late Asia-hours push to a session high of 1.14201, holding the 1.1420 cap flagged by desks. RSI(14) mid-60s and ATR thin at ~4 pips — a quiet grind, no breakout yet.
Support: 1.1411, 1.14052
Resistance: 1.14201, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14200 opens the path toward 1.1465
Failure to hold 1.14110 puts the 1.14052 asia low back in play
ECB decision 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Grinding higher within range · RSI 66 · price 1.14188
Range, testing session top.
EURUSD held a tight 1.1400–1.1421 band through the session and is now nudging back toward the 1.1420 cap into early Asia, price at 1.14188 with RSI(14) firm near 66. Buyers stepped in repeatedly around 1.1405–1.1406, keeping the range floor intact.
Support: 1.14035, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14212, 1.1465
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the path toward the 1.1465 range top
Loss of 1.14035 range floor confirms a lower-low back toward 1.1400
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Range, edging toward top · RSI 66 · price 1.14188
Boxed 1.1400-1.1421, recent push to range high.
EUR/USD spent the last 24h boxed in the low-1.14s, capped near the 1.1421 range high and holding a 1.1405 swing low. Late-session grind has price pushing back toward the top at 1.14188 on thin volume, RSI mid-60s; no break of the range yet.
Support: 1.1405, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens a range break toward 1.1465
Loss of the 1.14050 swing low reopens the 1.1400 pivot
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC is the dominant driver into this week
EURUSD chopped in the low-1.14s over the past 24h, spiking to a session high of 1.14212 before fading back into the 1.1406-1.1416 band. Thin Asia-session volume with a mild drift higher into the current bar; range floor near 1.1406 has held repeatedly.
Support: 1.1406, 1.1400, 1.13983
Resistance: 1.14163, 1.14212, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14163 puts the 1.1420 cap/range top back in play
Loss of the 1.14060 floor exposes 1.1400 psych and the 1.13983 swing low
ECB decision (12:15 UTC) later Thursday could break this range read
EURUSD is boxed between 1.14058 and the 1.14212 session high, grinding in low-1.14s through thin Asia hours ahead of Thursday's ECB. Price ticked back up to 1.14132 on light volume; RSI(14) mid-range near 58, no setup in play.
Support: 1.14058, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 breaks the session-high cap
Loss of 1.14058 opens the 1.14000 psych level
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC will override this range read
00:31 UTC
Sideways, low-vol Asian drift · RSI 56 · price 1.1412
Range-bound low-1.14s, tight.
EURUSD boxed in the low-1.14s, grinding from 1.1406 back toward the 1.1420 cap on thin Asian-session volume. Prior NY push tagged 1.1421 then faded; range floor near 1.1398/1.1400 held. No structural break in play.
Support: 1.1406, 1.1400, 1.1398
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1421
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1421 breaks the session cap and opens 1.1465
Loss of 1.1400 exposes the 1.1398 range floor
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser can override this range read
00:31 UTC
Sideways, low volatility · RSI 55 · price 1.1412
Range-bound, pinned below 1.1420.
EURUSD boxed in a tight 1.1400-1.1420 band through the session, with the 1.1420 cap holding and thin, low-volume trade into the Asian hours. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR has compressed to ~7 pips — no directional impulse in play.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1398
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1420 opens a push toward the 1.14212 session high
Failure to hold 1.1400 exposes the 1.1398 range floor
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser at 12:45 UTC could break this range
EURUSD is grinding in a tight 1.1398–1.1421 band through thin Asia hours, RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR compressed under 5 pips. Buyers held 1.1406 repeatedly while 1.1421 capped the London-NY push; no setup in play with the ECB hold the awaited catalyst.
Support: 1.1406, 1.13983
Resistance: 1.1413, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 breaks the session-high cap
loss of 1.13983 confirms a lower-low and opens the range floor
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / Lagarde 12:45 UTC will drive the next leg
00:16 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 53 · price 1.14108
Range-bound in low-1.14s.
EURUSD is boxed in the low-1.14s, oscillating between 1.1404 and 1.1421 through London and NY, with the 1.1421 range top rejected mid-window. Thin, early-Asia volume now with price pinned near 1.1411 mid-range; RSI(14) flat around 53, no setup in play.
Support: 1.1404, 1.13983
Resistance: 1.14163, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the path back toward 1.1465
Failure to hold 1.14040 exposes the 1.13983 window low
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD boxed in the low-1.14s, drifting back up to 1.1412 after a dip to 1.14052 during thin late-Asia hours. Volume has dried up into the session close; the 1.14212 session high remains the cap and 1.1400 the floor, consistent with the range read ahead of Thursday's ECB.
Support: 1.14052, 1.1400, 1.13983
Resistance: 1.14212, 1.14163
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 breaks the session-high cap
Failure to hold 1.14000 opens the 1.13983 asia low
ECB decision (12:15 UTC) later Thursday could break this range
EURUSD ranging in the low 1.14s across the Asian session, capped below the 1.14212 session high and holding above the 1.14060 floor. Volumes thinned overnight; price is drifting back toward mid-range near 1.14118 with RSI(14) neutral, no setup in play ahead of Thursday's ECB decision.
Support: 1.1406, 1.13985, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.14212
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14212 opens the path back to the 1.1420/1.1465 range top
Loss of 1.14060 exposes the 1.13985 swing low
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser could materially shift this range read