EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 23 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in early Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.13803
Lower highs and lows; tight range 1.1376–1.1387 above the 1.1370 day low.
EUR/USD broke below the 1.1400 support after the hot US PMI, set a 1.1370 day low in NY, and the rebound stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, keeping the lower-high line intact. Late NY and the early Asia session have compressed into a 1.1376 range low to 1.1387 range top band below both EMAs. 1.1400 now lines up with the 38.2% fib of the day's decline.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1387 range top, then the 1.1394 bounce high, breaks the lower-high line and exposes 1.1400 (38.2% fib)
Loss of the 1.1376 range low puts the 1.1370 day low back in play; a break extends the lower-low sequence
Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC land at the London open and could break the Asian range
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC; with Fed-hike pricing driving the pair, the result could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.13835
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, now a tight 1.1380–1.1387 band above the NY low.
Pair bled lower from the Asian range through London, and the US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC cracked the 1.1400 round number, with the NY low printed at 1.1370 around 17:00 UTC. The bounce high at 1.1393 capped the rebound, and price has since compressed between a 1.1380 range floor and a 1.1387 range top into early Asia. That is barely a 17% retrace on the day's decline fib, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1376, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1380 range floor and the 1.1376 rollover low exposes the 1.1370 NY low
Recovery above the 1.1387 range top and the 1.1393 bounce high would put the 1.1400 round number back in play as resistance
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Williams 08:10 UTC can break the compression around London open
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read in NY hours
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.13846
Lower highs from 1.1415; tight range 1.1376–1.1389 above session low.
The strong US PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed EUR/USD through 1.1400 psych. That extended a slide that began in Asia near 1.1449 down to a 1.1370 session low; the NY rebound stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, just under the 50% fib. Early Asia is now compressing between the 1.1376 range low and the 1.1389 range top, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.13761, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13886, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1389 range top reopens the 1.1394 bounce high and the 50% fib
Close back above 1.1400 psych would negate the post-PMI breakdown
Break of 1.1376 range low exposes the 1.1370 session low; losing it resumes the lower-low sequence
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) could break the compression at London open
Lower highs from 1.1415; 1.1376–1.1387 range after 1.1370 low.
Steady grind from the 1.1449 Asian high to a 1.1370 day low in NY; the strong US PMI pushed price through 1.1400 despite beats on the Eurozone PMIs. The post-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, under the lower highs line, and price is now compressed in a 1.1376–1.1387 range on a flat EMA20 in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1387 range top and the 1.1394 bounce high breaks the lower highs line and opens 1.1400 psych, the 38.2% fib of the day's decline
Failure at the 1.1376 range low and a break of the 1.1370 day low extends the lower-low chain
German IFO at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift this read in the London session
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially move the pair in the NY session
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in tight post-NY range · RSI 49 · price 1.13845
Lower highs from 1.1415; 7-pip box 1.1380–1.1387 since NY afternoon.
EUR/USD sold off from the 1.1449 Asian high through London and NY. The blowout US PMI outweighed the Eurozone beats and set a NY low at 1.1370, and the bounce stalled at 1.1394, extending the falling highs. Price is now boxed between the 1.1380 range floor and the 1.1387 range top into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1380 range floor exposes the 1.1370 NY low for a fresh lower-low
Close above the 1.1394 bounce high breaks the falling highs sequence and brings the 1.1400 psych level into view
Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC could break the compression during London hours
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, paused in tight post-NY range · RSI 48 · price 1.13847
Lower highs from London; 1.1376–1.1388 range above session low.
The US PMI beat pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1400 psych level in the NY session, printing a 1.1370 session low. The rebound stalled at 1.1394, the 50% fib of the 1.1415–1.1370 leg. Since the NY close price has held a 1.1376–1.1388 range into the rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1394, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1370 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1388 range top and the 1.1394 50% fib opens a retest of 1.1400 psych
A close back below the 1.1376 range low puts the session low back in play
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) early in London could break the range
Lower highs/lower lows; 1.1376–1.1394 band since the 17:00 UTC low.
EUR/USD bled lower through Asia and London, broke the Asian range low near 1.1422, then hit a 1.1370 session low after the strong US PMI print. The bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib and 1.1400 psych, and price has compressed into a 1.1376–1.1394 band into the new Asia session with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1400 psych (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1415 pre-pmi high is next
Loss of the 1.1376 late low exposes the 1.1370 session low and resumes the downtrend
Trendline resistance from the 1.1415 and 1.1394 highs caps the rebound while intact
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) at London open could break the overnight range
Lower highs and lower lows all day; tight 1.1380–1.1387 range since the late-NY bounce.
EURUSD printed lower highs and lower lows through Asia, London and NY. The blowout US PMI pushed the pair through 1.1400 to a 1.1370 day low, with the Eurozone PMI beat drawing no lasting bid. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, and price has since compressed in a 1.1380–1.1387 range into the new Asia session, sitting just under the 23.6% retrace of the day decline.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.14047
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 bounce high breaks the post-NY range and brings the 1.1400 psych and 1.1405 swing high into view
Loss of the 1.1380 range low re-exposes the 1.1370 day low
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) at London open could materially shift this read
Lower highs; tight post-rollover range under the 1.1400 break.
The US PMI beat extended the London break of 1.1400 psych to a 1.13698 session low in NY. The bounce stalled at the 1.13935 bounce high, near 50% of the PMI drop fib, keeping the lower highs intact. Late-NY and post-rollover trade is compressed between the 1.1377 rollover low and a 1.1387 range top, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 1.1377, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1387 range top (38.2% of PMI drop) opens a retest of the 1.13935 bounce high
Reclaim of 1.1400 psych breaks the lower highs trendline and the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1377 rollover low puts the 1.13698 session low back in play
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC could break the Asian compression
Lower highs/lows; late-NY consolidation broken at rollover.
The US PMI beat pushed EURUSD through 1.1400 in the NY session to a 1.1370 day low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1393 swing high and kept the lower-highs trendline intact. Late NY held a 1.1380–1.1387 band, and the rollover gap put price at 1.1377, under the range low and just above the day low.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1370 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1380 range low returns price to the late-NY consolidation
Close above 1.1393 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.1400 psych next above
Rollover gap is a thin-liquidity print; Asia session reaction at 1.1370–1.1380 tests it
Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
German IFO 08:00 UTC is the main EUR risk into London open
Lower highs/lower lows; late-NY compression, rollover gap below range floor.
The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the London floor at the 1.1400 psych level. That extended the day's lower-high/lower-low chain to a 1.1370 NY low, and the rebound stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, the 50% of the NY drop fib. Late NY compressed between 1.1380 and 1.1387, and the rollover printed a thin gap to 1.1377, below that range floor.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1370 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 1.1380 range floor fills the rollover gap and neutralises the drop
Close above the 1.1394 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 1.1400 psych
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) in the London morning could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, flattening after NY close · RSI 43 · price 1.13848
Lower highs and lower lows all day; late-NY compression 1.1380–1.1387.
London broke below the Asian range. The hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC sent the pair through 1.1400, with a pmi bounce stalling at 1.1405 before the NY-afternoon flush to a 1.1370 session low. The bounce high at 1.1394 capped near the 50% retrace of that leg, and price has since compressed above the 1.1380 pullback low into the NY close.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.14047
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1394 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1405 pmi bounce back in view
Loss of the 1.1380 pullback low reopens the 1.1370 session low
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC, German IFO 08:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 08:10 UTC could materially shift this read in the London session
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.13849
Lower highs/lower lows all session, now compressing below bounce high.
The pre-PMI pop to 1.1415 (pmi spike) was sold after the hot US PMIs, and NY extended the lower-low chain through 1.1400 to a 1.1370 day low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high near the 50% fib, and late NY is now compressing between 1.1380 and 1.1387 as ATR contracts.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 bounce high reclaims the 50% fib and opens the 1.1415 pmi spike
Failure to hold the 1.1380 swing low returns focus to the 1.1370 day low
Break below the 1.1370 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1414; tight 1.1380–1.1387 base in late NY.
London broke the 1.1422 Asian range low as EUR ignored the Eurozone PMI beats. The hot US PMIs then pushed price through the 1.1400 psych level from the 1.1414 pre-PMI high, down to a 1.1370 session low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1394 rebound high, near the 50% fib of the NY sell-off, and late NY is compressing just above the 1.1380 swing low with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400, 1.14143
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 rebound high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.1400 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.1380 swing low exposes the 1.1370 session low
Acceptance back above the 1.1414 pre-pmi high would break the lower-highs sequence
German IFO 08:00 UTC, Williams 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 45 · price 1.13855
Lower highs/lower lows all day; tight 1.1380–1.1389 compression after a failed bounce.
EURUSD broke below the Asian range at London open and extended to a 1.1370 day low after the US PMI beat revived October Fed-hike bets. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1394 lower high, near the 50% fib of the PMI leg. Price is now compressing just above the 1.1380 swing low, beneath the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400, 1.14154
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1394 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts 1.1400 psych back in play
Reclaim of 1.1415 pre-pmi high invalidates the post-PMI downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.1380 swing low exposes the 1.1370 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Asia session typically thin; ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London close · RSI 45 · price 1.13857
Lower highs since NY open; tight 1.1380–1.1390 compression above session low.
EUR/USD slipped out of the Asian range (1.1422–1.1449) in London. The strong US PMI at 13:45 UTC then broke the 1.1400 psych, and a lower-highs sequence from the 1.1415 NY high ran to a 1.1370 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high, the 50% fib of that leg, and price is now compressing between 1.1380 and 1.1390 below the lower-highs line.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 bounce high and the lower-highs line breaks the intraday sequence, with the 1.1400 psych next overhead
Failure to hold the 1.1380 swing low reopens the 1.1370 session low
Reclaim of the 1.1415 NY high would negate the post-PMI downtrend read
Thin post-NY Asia session ahead; Fed's Williams (Thu 08:10 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 43 · price 1.13841
Lower highs and lower lows, post-low bounce capped below 1.1400.
EUR/USD ground lower from the Asian range through London and lost the 1.1400 round number after the strong US PMI. It printed a session low at 1.1370 during NY hours. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1394 bounce high, near 50% of the NY drop fib, and price is now drifting around 1.1384 after London close, RSI(14) ~43 with ATR ~7 pips.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 bounce high and the lower highs line challenges the downtrend read, with the 1.1400 round number next
Failure to hold the 1.1380 pullback low exposes the 1.1370 session low
Break below the 1.1370 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Thursday's German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1420; 1.1400 broken, bouncing inside PMI leg.
EUR slid from the Asian range through London, then broke the 1.1400 psych level after the blowout US PMIs. The move extended to a 1.1370 session low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1393 bounce high near the 61.8% of the PMI leg, and price is now holding the 50% at 1.1387 above the 1.1380 pullback low, with the lower-highs line capping just overhead.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1393 bounce high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1400 psych retest in play
Failure to hold the 1.1380 pullback low reopens the 1.1370 session low
Thin Asia session ahead; Williams (08:10 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.1383
Lower highs and lows since Asia; bounce off 1.1370 capped at 50% fib.
The Asian range low at 1.1422 broke in London, and the US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed price through the 1.1400 psych level to a 1.1370 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1394 bounce high near the 50% fib of the 1.1415 pre-PMI high to 1.1370 leg. Price is now drifting just above a 1.1380 higher low, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1370 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 1.1380 higher low puts the session low back in play
Reclaim of the 1.1394 bounce high and the 1.1400 psych level neutralises the post-PMI leg; 1.1415 pre-pmi high is the next marker
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC Thu could shift the read at London open
LH/LL chain since Asia; late-NY bounce capped at trendline.
Asian range low near 1.1422 gave way into London. The EZ PMI beat failed to lift EUR, and the hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC drove it through the 1.1400 psych level and on to a 1.1370 session low. A late-NY bounce stalled at the descending trendline near 1.1394, roughly the 50% fib of the session drop, and price is back below the 1.1383 pmi low.
Support: 1.13698, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13832, 1.13935, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1394 trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1370 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1350 psych
Holding back above the 1.1383 pmi low would signal the bounce is not yet exhausted
Reclaiming 1.1400 psych would neutralise the day's breakdown
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs all session; rebound off 1.1370 capped below 1.1395.
EUR/USD slipped from the 1.1450 Asian range top through London and broke the 1.1400 round number after hot US PMIs at 13:45 UTC, extending to a 1.1370 session low late in NY. The rebound is retesting the broken 1.1390 base and stalled at a 1.1395 lower high, near the 50% level of the PMI-leg fib. RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1400, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1395 lower high and 1.1400 round number breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1415 pre-PMI high is next above
Failure to hold the 1.1383 post-PMI low reopens the 1.1370 session low
Thu ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC), then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1420 intact; bounce testing 61.8% of the last leg.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1422. The hot US flash PMIs then pushed the pair through the 1.1400 psych level, with the pmi low at 1.1383 and a session low of 1.1370 printed late in NY. The late-NY bounce has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 1.1391, just under the 1.1395 swing high, and the descending trendline from 1.1420 still caps price.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1400, 1.1405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1395 swing high and back over 1.1400 psych reclaims the breakdown level
Failure at the trendline or the 1.1405 pmi high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 1.1383 pmi low reopens the 1.1370 session low
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range; price retesting descending trendline.
London broke below the 1.1422–1.1449 Asian range, and the strong US PMI extended the slide through 1.1400 psych to a session low at 1.1370 after London close. The 15-pip late-NY bounce stalled at a 1.1386 bounce high on the descending trendline off 1.1415, below the NY fib 38.2%, keeping the lower-high chain of 1.1415, 1.1405 swing high and 1.1395 intact.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1400, 1.1405
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1386 bounce high weakens the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of 1.1400 psych and the 1.1405 swing high, above the NY fib 61.8% near 1.1398, negates the intraday downtrend read
Break below the 1.1370 session low extends the lower-low chain
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) around London open could shift this read
LH/LL sequence since US PMI; fresh session low at 1.1370.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1423. The strong US PMI at 13:45 UTC then drove the US PMI leg from the 1.1415 pre-pmi high through 1.1400. Late in the NY session, price slipped under the 1.1383 pmi low after a lower high at 1.1395 and printed a session low at 1.1370 twice; RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1383, 1.1395, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1383 pmi low and the lower-high line near 1.1395 (fib 61.8% zone) would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1370 session low exposes the 1.1350 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1415 pre-pmi high would negate the US PMI leg
No scheduled EUR/USD event in the next 8h; Schnabel 07:15 and German IFO 08:00 UTC Thursday are the next catalysts
LH/LL chain from 1.1455; late-NY break below 1.1383 prior low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Asia. The strong US PMIs sank it through 1.1400 during NY hours, and after London close it cut the 1.1383 prior low to a new session low at 1.1370. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) is about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1383, 1.1400, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1383 prior low (near fib 38.2% at 1.1387) would mark the late break as a potential false break
Reclaim of the 1.1400 round number and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Only a move back above the 1.1415 ny high voids the intraday downtrend read
Extension below the 1.1370 session low leaves 1.1350 psych as the next reference
Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC around London open could shift the read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low late in NY · RSI 29 · price 1.13758
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; 1.1400 psych broken after the US PMI.
The hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed EURUSD cleanly through the 1.1400 psych level, and the EZ PMI beat gave no support. Every bounce since has been capped: 1.1405, then the 1.13953 lower high. The late-NY leg has now broken below the 1.13832 pmi low to a new session low at 1.13754, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.13754, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13832, 1.13953, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.13832 pmi low turns the late-NY push into a false break
Reclaim of the 1.13953 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence; the 1.1400 psych level sits at the 61.8% of the PMI leg fib
Extension below the 1.13754 session low leaves the 1.1350 round number as the next reference during a thin Asia session
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Fed Williams (08:10 UTC) could materially shift this read at the London open
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 1.13869
Lower-high/lower-low chain; post-PMI bounce capped at 61.8% retracement.
Steady slide from 1.1449 through Asia and London. The hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed price through the 1.1400 round number to a 1.1383 session low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1405 post-PMI high, just past the 61.8% of the PMI drop fib, and price is grinding back toward the lows late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1383 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1380 psych
M15 close back above the 1.1405 post-PMI high breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1415 pre-PMI high is next above
Round number 1.1400 now acting as overhead supply after the break
ECB Schnabel 07:15 UTC and German IFO 08:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; tight late-NY range below 1.1400.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.1422 despite the EZ PMI beat. The hot US PMI at 13:45 UTC then pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1400 round number to a 1.13832 session low, and the bounce stalled at 1.14047, just past the 61.8% of the PMI drop fib. Late NY, price is compressing at 1.1387–1.1395 above the 1.13873 swing low, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.13873, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.13832 session low extends the lower-low chain; holding the 1.13873 swing low keeps the late-NY range intact
Recovery above the 1.1400 round number and the 1.14047 bounce high would neutralise the post-PMI break; the 1.14154 pre-PMI high caps the prior leg
ECB Schnabel (07:15 UTC) and German IFO (08:00 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since London open; post-PMI consolidation 1.1387–1.1405.
The 13:45 UTC US PMI beat broke the 1.1400 figure. EUR/USD extended London's lower-high sequence to a session low at 1.1383, even after strong EZ PMIs. The bounce stalled at the 1.1405 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the post-PMI drop. Price is now compressing in a 1.1387–1.1405 range late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.13873, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1400 figure and 1.1405 bounce high would neutralise the break
Failure to hold the 1.1387 range low exposes the 1.1383 session low
Pre-PMI high at 1.1415 and the lower highs line cap any recovery
ECB's Lane at 16:30 UTC; hawkish talk beyond the priced terminal rate could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian range; tight coil above the session low.
The Asian range low gave way early, London extended lower, and the strong US PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed price through the 1.1400 psych to a 1.1383 session low despite the Eurozone PMI beat. The bounce met rejection at the 1.1405 bounce high, near the 61.8% fib of the NY leg. Price is now coiling at 1.1387–1.1395 below the psych level.
Support: 1.13873, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1400 psych and 1.1405 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1415 ny high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.1387 swing low and 1.1383 session low extends the lower-low sequence
ECB's Cipollone (now) and Lane (16:30 UTC): hawkish terminal talk beyond the priced 3.25% could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range; 1.1400 floor broken, retest failed.
The strong US PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1400 broken floor to a 1.1383 session low, overriding the EZ PMI beat. The 14:45 UTC bounce stalled at the 1.1405 retest high, still under the lower-highs line from the Asian range. Price is now compressing near 1.1390 into the London close, holding a higher low at 1.1388, with RSI(14) neutral near 42.
Support: 1.13884, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1400 broken floor and the 1.1405 retest high undoes the break
Clearance of the 1.1415 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1388 higher low, then the 1.1383 session low, extends the lower-low chain
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) are due now and could shift this read
A move above the 61.8% of the US PMI drop (~1.1403) would mark a deeper retracement
Lower-high/lower-low chain since Asia; 1.1400 broken, retest from below rejected.
EUR/USD has made lower highs and lower lows since the Asia session. The strong US flash PMI knocked price through the 1.1400 round number to a session low at 1.1383, overriding the earlier EZ PMI beat. The bounce stalled at the 1.1405 swing high and price is pressing the lows again late in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 9 pips.
Support: 1.1383
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1405, 1.1415
What it said to watch
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1405 swing high and the 1.1400 round number neutralises the break
Close above 1.1415 breaks the lower highs trendline
Loss of the 1.1383 session low extends the lower-low chain
LH/LL chain since 11:00 UTC; 1.1400 floor broken in NY, bounce rejected below 1.1405.
The 13:45 UTC US PMI beat pushed EUR through the 1.1400 floor to a 1.1383 session low despite the Eurozone PMI beat, extending a lower-highs chain that began once London broke below the Asian range. The bounce stalled at a 1.1405 lower high near the 61.8% fib of the NY drop, with price back below the broken floor and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.1388, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14047, 1.14154
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the broken 1.1400 floor and the 1.1405 lower high would stall the lower-highs chain
Loss of the 1.1388 minor low, then the 1.1383 session low, extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1415 pre-PMI high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) within the hour could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 45 · price 1.14007
Lower highs since London open, retesting 1.1400 from below.
The strong US flash PMI beats drove a NY-session flush through the 1.1400 psych level to a 1.1383 session low. Price has bounced to 1.1405, retraced just over half of the NY drop, and is now retesting 1.1400. The lower-high sequence from London open stays intact, with the 1.1415 lower high capping and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1388, 1.1383
Resistance: 1.1405, 1.1415
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 1.1400 psych puts the 1.1388 higher low and 1.1383 session low back in focus
Break of the 1.1405 bounce high and the lower-highs line near 1.1413–1.1415 would interrupt the lower-high structure
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) near the London close could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London, 1.1400 floor broken on US PMI.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC broke the 1.1400 floor that held through the London-NY transition, and the PMI drop extended to a 1.1383 session low. Early NY is bouncing back toward that broken floor. The lower highs from the 1.1427 London high to the 1.1415 swing high remain intact. RSI(14) is near 39, and the bounce is holding above the 1.1391 PMI low.
Support: 1.13909, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14154, 1.14267
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1400 broken floor puts the 1.1415 swing high and the lower highs line in play
Failure to hold the 1.1391 pmi low reopens the 1.1383 session low
Break below the 1.1383 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A bounce stalling near the 50–61.8% of the PMI drop (1.1399–1.1403) would keep the retracement shallow
ECB Cipollone 16:00 UTC and Lane 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia session, 1.1400 broken in the NY session.
The US flash PMI beat at 13:45 UTC pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1400 broken psych level to a 1.1383 session low. That extends a lower-highs sequence that has capped every bounce since the London high at 1.1423. RSI(14) sits near 36, well short of oversold, and the 1.1395–1.1403 fib zone of the PMI leg overlaps 1.1400 overhead.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14154, 1.14226
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 (broken psych) would flag a false break
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1415 swing high negates the downtrend read; the 1.1423 london high sits just above
Failure to hold the 1.1383 session low extends lower lows, leaving the 1.1350 round number as the next reference
ECB's Cipollone at 16:00 UTC and Lane at 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs have stacked since the Asia session drift from 1.1449. London sold through the EZ PMI beat, and the blowout US flash PMI at 13:45 UTC broke 1.1400 to a session low at 1.1391. Early NY is holding just under the psych level, with a lower-high trendline from the 1.1420 lower high through the 1.1415 swing high capping bounces; RSI(14) is near 38 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1391
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1420
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 psych would turn the PMI break into a false break
Break above the lower-high trendline and the 1.1415 swing high ends the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1391 session low extends the lower-low sequence
ECB Cipollone 16:00 UTC and Lane 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows after US PMI · RSI 41 · price 1.13994
Lower highs / lower lows since London open; 1.1400 psych broken, now retested from below.
EUR/USD has built a steady lower-high chain from the london high at 1.1427, capped by the lh trendline. The blowout US flash PMI at 13:45 UTC pushed it through 1.1400 psych to a pmi low at 1.1391, and early NY session trade is now retesting 1.1400 from below. RSI(14) near 41 shows no oversold extreme; ATR sits around 7 pips.
Support: 1.13909
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14154, 1.14267
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1400 psych would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the pmi low at 1.1391 extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.1415 swing high breaks the lh trendline and the lower-high sequence
ECB Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high, three-touch base at 1.1400.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.1449 Asian high. London broke below the Asian range and 1.1415 intraday support gave way despite the eurozone PMI beats, as the dollar stayed bid. Buyers stepped in three times at the 1.1400 session low, but the 13:15 UTC bounce stalled at 1.1415 for a fresh lower high as NY opened into the US flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14154, 1.14195, 1.14488
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1400 session low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
Close above the 1.1415 lower high and the 1.1420 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Recovery toward the 1.1449 asian high needs the descending lower highs line cleared first
Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC, then ECB's Cipollone at 16:00 and Lane at 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off 1.1400 · RSI 51 · price 1.14141
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia session; base at 1.1400 in early NY.
EUR bled lower from 1.1449 through Asia and London, and the post-PMI bounce capped at the 1.1423 pmi high as broad USD strength overrode the eurozone beats. Three probes of the 1.1400 round number met rejection in the first hours of NY, and a 14-pip snapback now presses the descending trendline near 1.1416, around the 61.8% of the post-PMI leg.
Support: 1.1404, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1423
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1420 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1423 pmi high sits just above
Slip back below the 1.1404 swing low returns focus to the 1.1400 round number; a close under it extends the lower-low sequence
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) are the next EUR-side risk
Lower highs compressing into flat 1.1400 session low.
EURUSD has stepped lower from the 1.1449 Asian high and broke the Asian low near 1.1422 in London. USD strength overrode the EZ flash PMI beat. Into the London-NY transition, price has held the 1.1400 session low for four straight bars while lower highs near 1.1408 compress against it.
Support: 1.14042, 1.13996
Resistance: 1.14084, 1.14195, 1.14488
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1400 session low extends the lower-low chain; a hold keeps the 1.1404 swing low to 1.1400 zone as the floor
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.1420 swing high breaks the descending sequence
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) are further event risk later in NY hours
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at 1.1400 · RSI 44 · price 1.14064
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, below the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1422 and ground lower in a chain of lower highs, despite the Eurozone PMI beats. Broad USD strength drove the London leg down to a 1.1400 session low into the NY open. That test was rejected, with a 12:45 UTC bar closing back at 1.1408, but price holds under both EMAs and the 1.1412 lower high.
Support: 1.13996
Resistance: 1.14123, 1.14195, 1.14222
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1400 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1412 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the London structure; the 1.1420 swing high and 1.1422 asian low sit overhead
ECB's Cipollone and Lane at 16:00–16:30 GMT add late-NY event risk
LH/LL chain through London; Asian range low broken, price at 1.1400.
London broke below the Asian range and printed successive lower lows into the 1.1400 round number, with the strong Eurozone PMI beat drowned out by broad USD strength. Lower highs at the 1.1420 swing high and the 1.1412 lower high cap each bounce, and RSI(14) near 35 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14123, 1.14195, 1.14267
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, the next bar period's key event, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1412 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the swing high at 1.1420 and the London high at 1.1427 above
Sustained trade below the 1.1400 round number extends the lower-low chain
ECB Lane/Cipollone speeches at 16:00–16:30 GMT are a second risk window
Lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range, pressing 1.1400.
London broke below the Asian range and kept stepping lower despite the euro PMI beat, as broad USD strength dominated. Lower highs ran from 1.1422 to the 1.1420 swing high and the 1.1412 lower high, and price now sits on the 1.1400 round number at the London-NY transition. RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14123, 1.14195, 1.14222
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1400 round number extends the lower-low sequence into fresh multi-month lows
A close back above the 1.1412 lower high, then the 1.1420 swing high, breaks the lower-high chain; the asian low at 1.1422 is the next cap
ECB's Cipollone and Lane at 16:00–16:30 UTC are a second event risk for the NY session
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; last leg into 1.14042 session low.
EURUSD has ground down through the whole window, with London extending the slide to a session low at 1.14042 despite the Eurozone PMI beats — USD strength is doing the work. The bounce into 1.14194 was rejected and price is back at 1.1409 in the London-NY transition, RSI(14) near 40 with ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 1.14042, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14194, 1.14275
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the session's high-impact event and can reset this read within one bar
Loss of 1.14042 session low puts the 1.14000 round number in play as the next reference
M15 close above the 1.14194 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; fresh session low at 1.14042.
Grinding lower through London into the NY handover, with the 1.14194 swing high rejected on the last hour and a fresh session low printed at 1.14042; RSI(14) near 39, price under EMA20 and EMA50. The EZ PMI beat produced no EUR bid, consistent with the digest's read that USD rate pricing is in control, and ATR(14) at ~5.4 pips keeps ranges compressed ahead of the US data.
Support: 1.14042, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14194, 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the next catalyst and can invalidate this compressed-range read within one bar
Loss of 1.14042 puts the 1.1400 round number in play as the next reference
A 15-minute close back above the 1.14194 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above 1.14226 prior high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the low · RSI 42 · price 1.14108
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, Asian range low broken during London.
Asia drifted lower from 1.14488 and London broke the Asian range low, printing a session low at 1.14066 before a bounce to the 1.14195 bounce high was rejected in a single bar back to 1.14108. Lower highs remain intact and price sits under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41; the EZ PMI beats produced no EUR bid, consistent with USD rate pricing driving the tape.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14195, 1.14267
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14267 london high would break the lower-highs chain
Loss of the 1.14066 session low exposes the 1.1400 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr shortly after could materially shift this read
Chain of lower highs/lower lows, base forming at session low.
London hours extended the slide out of the Asian range to 1.14066 before a twin-low base and a two-bar bounce back to 1.14184, with the pair now nudging back above EMA20 while holding well under EMA50. The broader driver is a third day of USD strength on hawkish-Fed pricing — yesterday's Eurozone PMI beat bought the euro nothing. Lower-high chain from 1.14281 is still intact and ATR(14) is a thin 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr shortly after — the main event risk into the NY open for this range
A 15m close above the 1.14281 london high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14066 session low re-opens the 1.14000 round number
Stair-step lower highs and lower lows through London; last two bars reclaiming off the session low.
EURUSD has ground down through the Asian and London sessions in a clean lower-high, lower-low chain, basing at a session low of 1.14074 before the last two bars snapped back to 1.14173 and just reclaimed the EMA20. The Eurozone PMI beat bought no lift — the slide is USD-rate led — and ATR(14) at ~5 pips shows compressed intraday ranges into the NY handover.
Support: 1.14074, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC (~2.5h) are the main intraday catalyst and could reset this range
A close above the 1.14226 swing high breaks the lower-high chain that has defined the last 8 hours
Loss of the 1.14074 session low exposes the 1.14000 round number
ECB Cipollone/Lane at 16:00/16:30 UTC after the NY open
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, no reclaim attempt.
London has extended the slide, pressing a fresh session low at 1.14066 with price pinned under EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 31 — soft but not yet extreme. Every attempt off the lows has stalled at a lower high (1.14140, then 1.14226), consistent with the EUR's inability to rally on the flash PMI beat while the Dollar sits at seven-week highs; ATR(14) at ~5.3 pips shows a slow, mechanical grind rather than impulsive selling.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1414, 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14066 session low opens the 1.14000 round number as the next reference
A 15-minute close back above 1.14140 lower high would break the lower-high chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC land within the next few bars and can reset this range
ECB's Cipollone 16:00 UTC / Lane 16:30 UTC later in the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken and not reclaimed.
London extended the downtrend, slicing the thin Asian range and printing a fresh session low at 1.14066, with EUR getting no lift from the flash PMI beats as the USD rate story dominates. Every bounce has been capped near the 1.14226 bounce high and price is pinned under the EMA20 at 1.14140; RSI(14) around 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1414, 1.14226
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.14226 bounce high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14066 session low exposes the 1.14000 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Lane later could reset this intraday read
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.14140 on a close is the first sign the grind lower is stalling
Unbroken lower highs / lower lows since the Asian range break.
London session has ground EURUSD out of the flat Asian range (1.1444-1.1449) down to a fresh session low at 1.14066, with price pinned under a falling ema20 and the london high at 1.14281 untouched since the open — the flash PMI beats bought the euro nothing against a bid dollar. RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 5.8 pips: sustained pressure rather than an impulse, with the 1.1400 round number the next reference below.
Support: 1.14066, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1417, 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.14226 bounce high would break the chain of lower highs
Loss of the 1.14066 session low exposes the 1.1400 round number
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC land within the next few bars and can reset this range
London took out the Asia low at 1.14229 and pressed to a session low of 1.14074, with the 1.14186 swing high capping the one bounce attempt — yesterday's PMI beats have bought the euro nothing. Clean chain of lower highs, RSI(14) near 27 and ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 1.14074, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14186, 1.14229, 1.14281
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above 1.14186 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14000 round number extends the leg from the london high at 1.14281
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC then Fed's Barr 14:05 UTC land inside the next few bars and can reset this range
London hours extended the slide to a fresh session low at 1.1409, with the Eurozone PMI beats drawing no EUR bid at all. Price is pinned below ema20 (~1.1419) in a clean chain of lower highs from the asian high at 1.1449, RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1419, 1.1423, 1.14488
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the 1.1423 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1400 round number extends the leg off the asian high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next catalyst and can reset this intraday range
London hours extended the slide, printing a session low at 1.14092 before a shallow bounce stalled at the 1.14226 bounce high; price is now compressing in the lower third of the day's range with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) around 5 pips. The euro is not getting paid for this morning's Composite PMI beat — political/fiscal risk premium and a firm dollar are dominating, and every recovery attempt has capped below the descending line of lower highs.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14092 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.14000 round number
A 15m close back above the 1.14226 bounce high, then the 1.14281 swing high, would break the lower-high chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC land within the next few bars and can reprice this range quickly
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg fading · RSI 33 · price 1.14137
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; London extended below the Asian range.
London session broke the Asian range low and pushed EUR/USD to a session low of 1.14092, the weakest print since late July, with the bloc's flash PMI beats ignored while the hawkish-Fed dollar bid dominated. Price has since stalled under the 1.14226 bounce high with RSI(14) near 33 and EMA20 around 1.1420 capping; ATR(14) is a compressed 5.4 pips.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.14226 bounce high, then 1.14281 prior high, would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14092 session low confirms another lower low and exposes the 1.14000 round number
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after could materially shift this read within the NY session
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; post-break consolidation.
London open broke the Asian range low and extended the downswing to a session low at 1.14092 before a bounce stalled at the 1.14226 bounce high; price is now coiled in a 1.1417-1.1422 pocket under EMA20 and EMA50. The move fits the digest's read that upside EZ PMIs are being ignored while the hawkish-Fed dollar bid does the work, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14226, 1.14281
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14092 confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.14000 psych level
A close above the 1.14281 prior pivot would break the intraday lower-highs chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and ECB speakers later in the session can materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London · RSI 36 · price 1.14193
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range broken to the downside.
The Asian range (1.14202–1.14488) broke lower at the London open, price extending to a session low of 1.14092 before snapping back to retest the 1.14202 asia low from beneath — the slide is USD/rates-driven, not a reaction to the firm euro-area PMIs. RSI(14) near 36 with ATR(14) about 5 pips; the chain of lower highs off 1.14548 remains intact.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14202, 1.14281, 1.14488
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above the 1.14202 asia low would neutralise the range break
Acceptance above the 1.14281 swing high is needed to break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14092 session low exposes the 1.1400 round number
US data and Fed headlines during the London-NY window remain the main risk to this read
Lower highs and lower lows, marginal bounce off the low.
London hours extended the slide, breaking the overnight 1.1422–1.1448 drift lower to a session low at 1.14092 before a small bounce back to 1.1420 — dollar-led, with yesterday's EZ PMI beat still ignored. Chain of lower highs intact, RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14267, 1.14441
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14267 london high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.14092 session low puts the 1.1400 round number in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers can reprice this intraday read
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum still expanding · RSI 28 · price 1.14111
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, Asian range low broken at London open.
Tight Asian session drift gave way at the London open: price sliced the 1.1422 asian rng lo and the 1.1425 late-July low, printing a session low at 1.1410 as the dollar held seven-week highs on hawkish Fed commentary. RSI(14) at 28 with price pinned below ema20 (1.1423) and ema50 (1.1432); ATR(14) only ~4.6 pips, so the last three bars are outsized relative to the window.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1400, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1422, 1.1432
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1422 asian rng lo would negate the range break
Loss of the 1.1400 round number extends the leg toward the 1.1350 july low area
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next material catalyst for this read
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke the Asian range floor.
EURUSD ground lower all through the Asia session and the London open took out the 1.1423 asia low, printing a session low at 1.1416 with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR only ~4 pips. The whole 24h window is a clean chain of lower highs beneath a descending resistance line off the 1.14488 asia high, in line with the dollar's push to seven-week highs.
Support: 1.1416, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.1423, 1.1428, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash composite PMI lands at 08:00 GMT — first bars after the print will define whether the break below the asia low holds
A reclaim of 1.1423 and then the 1.1428 swing high would invalidate the range break read
Sustained trade under 1.1416 puts the 1.1410 psych level in play
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in small increments · RSI 36 · price 1.14226
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; basing just above session low.
Third straight session of euro softness: the 1.1447 asia range floor gave way into the London open and the 1.1470→1.1420 leg has left price pinned just above the 1.1420 session low, RSI(14) around 36 with ATR(14) only ~4 pips. Lower highs are capping at the 1.1428 micro high and price is beneath both EMA20 and EMA50 — consolidation at the lows rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1435, 1.1447
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash composite PMI due on the hour (08:00 GMT) can override this intraday structure within a bar or two
Reclaim of the 1.1435 prior swing would break the lower-high chain
Sustained close below the 1.1420 session low opens room toward the 1.1400 psych figure
US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT are the larger cross-market risk for the rest of the session
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, last 8 bars basing.
EURUSD ground lower through the whole Asia session, breaking the 1.1445 asia low and printing a fresh session low at 1.1420 as the dollar held seven-week highs. Price is now compressed in a 1.1420–1.1428 shelf below EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR down to ~3.6 pips, the last lower high at 1.1428 still capping into the European open.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1445
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1445 asia low would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1420 session low opens the 1.1400 round number
German flash PMI (07:30 UTC) and Eurozone composite (08:00 UTC) land inside the next bars and can break this shelf either way
Sustained hold above 1.1428 lower high would flip the intraday structure to higher lows
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY session; last 8 bars compressed just above the session low.
EUR/USD ground lower through the Asian session into early London, printing a fresh window low at 1.1420 as the third straight day of dollar strength kept the single currency offered. Price is now pinned between 1.1420 and the 1.1428 ema20, ATR(14) just 3.3 pips — a compression phase directly ahead of the German and Eurozone flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1436
What it said to watch
German PMI (07:30 GMT) and EZ composite (08:00 GMT) land inside the next bars and can break this compression either way
Loss of the 1.1420 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1400 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1436 swing high would break the lower-high sequence and neutralise the intraday downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the main dollar-side risk later in the day
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, last 8 bars flat.
Asia ground EURUSD steadily lower from the 1.14488 asia high to a 1.1422 session low — a third straight day of EUR losses with DXY holding above 100. Price is now coiled in a 6-pip band under the 1.14281 micro high, ATR(14) down to 3.4 pips, RSI(14) at 34 without a divergence, and both EMA20 and EMA50 overhead.
Support: 1.1422, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14281, 1.14364, 1.14488
What it said to watch
French PMI 07:15 GMT, German 07:30 and EZ composite 08:00 all land inside the next few bars — the compression under the micro high is likely to resolve on them
Loss of the 1.1422 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1400 psych level
A close above the 1.14364 lower high would break the intraday lower-high chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the later USD-side risk to this read
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since NY; price pinned at the bottom of the Asian range.
Steady drift lower through NY and the Asia session left a fresh session low at 1.14222, with price holding under EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) at 36 — soft but not extreme. ATR(14) is just 2.8 pips, typical pre-London compression, and the hawkish-Fed dollar bid has kept every bounce capped below the 1.14300 micro high.
Support: 1.14222, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14364, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMI cluster from 07:15 GMT (France, then Germany 07:30, bloc 08:00) lands inside the next few bars and can break this compression
A close back above the 1.14300 micro high would end the lower-high sequence; 1.14364 swing high is the next reference
Loss of the 1.14222 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.14200 round number
Failure to reclaim the asia high at 1.14488 keeps price capped in the lower half of the Asian range
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on small ranges · RSI 31 · price 1.14237
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since the London-NY transition, new session low into early London.
Price has ground down all Asia session and into early London, printing a fresh session low at 1.14222 — a seven-week low area — with the Dollar doing the work as DXY holds above 100. Ranges are tiny (ATR ~3 pips) and RSI(14) near 31; the 1.14300 micro high caps every bounce so far.
Support: 1.14222, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14374, 1.1450
What it said to watch
French 07:15, German 07:30 and Eurozone 08:00 GMT flash PMIs land inside the next few bars and can break this low-volatility grind
M15 close above the 1.14300 micro high would end the lower-high chain; 1.14374 swing high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.14222 session low exposes the 1.14200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.14500 asia high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on thin Asia flows · RSI 27 · price 1.14225
Unbroken lower-high/lower-low chain, fresh session low at 1.14222.
EURUSD has ticked out a fresh session low at 1.14222 into the European open, a third straight leg down inside a clean lower-high chain with price pinned under EMA20 and EMA50 — the Dollar doing the work as DXY holds above 100.00. RSI(14) at 27 is stretched but ATR(14) is only ~2.9 pips, so the Asia drift has been orderly rather than impulsive; the 1.14296 micro high is the first thing reclaimed if this stalls.
Support: 1.14222, 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14296, 1.14367, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMI cluster (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ composite 08:00 GMT) lands inside the next few bars and can break this drift either way
Close back above the 1.14296 micro high would be the first break of the lower-high chain; 1.14367 swing high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.14200 round number extends the lower-low sequence
RSI(14) at 27 with price making new lows — no divergence yet, so momentum is still aligned with the downtrend
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, price pinned at session low.
Asia has been a one-way 26-pip drift from the 1.14488 asia high down to a 1.14229 session low, price below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 32 — EUR heavy with DXY holding above 100. Attempts back above 1.1429 have been capped each time; ATR(14) just 3.4 pips shows how thin the pre-London tape is.
Support: 1.14229, 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1429, 1.14418, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT (France, Germany, EZ composite) land inside the next few bars and can reset this range
Sustained trade below 1.1420 round number opens the 1.1400 psych area
A 15m close back above the 1.1429 bounce high, then 1.14418 swing high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.14488 asia high would invalidate the downtrend read
Unbroken lower highs / lower lows; last 8 bars coiled at the lows.
Asia session ground EURUSD down from the 1.14488 asian high to a 1.1425 session low, the chain of lower highs intact as DXY held above 100 on hawkish Fed commentary. Price has since stalled in a 1.1425–1.1430 coil with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR compressed to ~2.5 pips, price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1425, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1430, 1.14374, 1.14488
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1430 micro cap would break the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below the 1.1425 session low opens the 1.1400 round number
French and German flash PMIs (07:15/07:30 GMT) land within the next few bars and can reset this range
Chain of lower highs and lower lows, now flat-lining just above the session low.
Price stair-stepped lower all through NY and into Asia, printing a session low at 1.14251 with the dollar at seven-week highs, and the last six bars have gone inert in a 3-pip band under the 1.14332 micro pivot. RSI(14) at 33 with ATR(14) just 2.6 pips — thin late-Asia conditions, price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.14251, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14332, 1.14441, 1.1450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14332 micro pivot would break the lower-high chain; 1.14441 asia pivot and the 1.14500 asian high cap above
Sustained trade below the 1.14251 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.14200 psych
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 GMT) land within the next few bars and can void this compression
Stair-step lower highs and lower lows, late-Asia compression.
Asia has ticked out a fresh low at 1.14251 — the lowest since late July per the dollar-led move as DXY holds above 100.00 — and the last four bars are compressing in a 3-pip band just above it. Price is below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 31, and each bounce since the 1.14488 asia high has stalled at a lower high, most recently 1.14331.
Support: 1.14251, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14331, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 GMT) land inside the next bars and can reset this range
Break and hold below the 1.14251 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.14200 round number
A 15-minute close back above the 1.14331 lower high breaks the descending sequence
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on small bars · RSI 31 · price 1.14263
Unbroken chain of lower highs and lower lows since the late-NY range break.
Price broke down out of the tight 1.1445/1.1450 Asian range and has ground to 1.14251, the session low, in a steady sequence of lower highs — consistent with the heavy EUR / firm DXY tone into fresh late-July lows. EMA20 near 1.1432 is capping every bounce, RSI(14) at 31 with the last two lows showing slight momentum divergence; ATR(14) is thin at ~3.3 pips as Asia hands over to the European session.
Support: 1.14251, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1432, 1.14441, 1.1450
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14251 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1400 round number
A 15m close back above the 1.14441 prior high would break the lower-high chain and put the asian high at 1.1450 back in play
EZ flash PMIs (France 07:15 GMT, Germany 07:30, composite 08:00) land within the next bars and can materially reprice this grind
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh window lows in late Asia.
Asia ground steadily lower off the 1.14488 asian shelf and broke the 1.1433/1.1445 area to a session low of 1.14251, extending the dollar-led slide that has DXY holding above 100.00. ATR(14) is just ~3 pips and RSI(14) sits near 30 — a slow, one-way drift rather than an impulse, with every bounce capped at a lower high (1.14367 the latest).
Support: 1.14251, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14367, 1.14488, 1.14548
What it said to watch
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT (France, Germany, Eurozone) land into the London open and can reprice this range immediately
Acceptance below 1.14251 leaves 1.1400 psych as the next reference
Reclaim of the 1.14488 asian shelf would invalidate the lower-high chain; 1.14548 ny high the cap above it
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on thin Asia flow · RSI 29 · price 1.1429
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; fresh window low printed late Asia.
Asia leaked lower out of the 1.1446–1.14484 overnight band, taking out the NY low and printing a session low at 1.14251 — a clean range break with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR just 3.5 pips, so ranges are thin rather than impulsive. Dollar strength on hawkish Fed repricing remains the driver; each bounce has been capped at successively lower highs, currently 1.14364 then 1.14418.
Support: 1.14251, 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14364, 1.14418, 1.14484
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT (France, then Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00) land into the London open and can materially reset this read
Reclaim of the 1.14364 lower high, and above that 1.14418 swing high, would break the descending sequence
Acceptance below the 1.14251 session low exposes the 1.1420 round number and the 1.1400 psych area
A move back above the 1.14484 asian high would invalidate the range break
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since London yesterday; Asian range broken to the downside.
The tight Asian range between the 1.14445 asia low and 1.14488 asia high gave way in late Asia hours, and price has ground down to a fresh session low at 1.14251 with RSI(14) near 21 — stretched, but no reversal candle yet. The leg fits the dollar-led move flagged in the digest, with DXY at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed repricing; M15 ATR is only ~3.4 pips, so the drift is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.14251, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14342, 1.14445, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 GMT) land within the next few bars and can reprice this range immediately
Reclaim of the 1.14342 micro high would break the lower-high sequence and neutralise the downtrend read
Acceptance below the 1.14251 session low puts the 1.14200 round number in play as the next reference
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on thin Asia flow · RSI 21 · price 1.14274
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; NY low taken out.
After fading from the late-NY high at 1.14548, price has ground steadily lower through the Asia session and broken the NY low at 1.14292, printing a fresh session low at 1.14267 — dollar-led, with DXY holding above 100.00. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold on this timeframe but each bounce has stalled under the descending highs, and ATR(14) is a thin 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.14267, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14364, 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14364 micro high would break the lower-high chain; only a push back to the 1.14500 asia high neutralises the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.14267 session low exposes the 1.14200 round number
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ composite 08:00 GMT) land within the next few bars and can materially shift this read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the offsetting dollar-side risk later in the session
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower on thin Asia flow · RSI 25 · price 1.14296
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low giving way at prior-day low.
Asia has ground down through its own range and closed at 1.14296, sitting directly on yesterday's 1.14292 low, with RSI(14) near 25 and ATR(14) just 3.6 pips — thin, mechanical drift rather than impulse. Dollar strength (DXY holding above 100.00) is the driver; the 1.14488 asia high capped the session and lower highs have stacked since the 1.14548 NY peak.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14418, 1.14488, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Repeated M15 closes below 1.14292 confirm a lower low and expose the 1.1400 psych area
Reclaim of the 1.14418 swing high would break the lower-high chain and neutralise the Asian range break
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially reprice this read
Asia session has bled lower off the 1.14488 asia high in a clean lower-high chain and is now retesting the 1.14292 prior low set in NY hours, with price pinned under EMA20 and EMA50. The drift is dollar-led — DXY holding above 100.00 on hawkish Fed repricing — and ATR has compressed to roughly 4 pips per bar, so the retest is happening on thin Asian participation; RSI(14) near 31 has stopped making new lows alongside price.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14488
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14292 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.14200 psych area, then 1.14000 round number
Reclaim of the 1.14488 asia high would break the lower-high chain and invalidate the downtrend read
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT can reprice this range within hours
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia range broke.
Asia session leaked out the bottom of a very tight 1.14441–1.14488 range and has printed lower highs into 1.14315, with the broader dollar bid at two-month highs still the dominant driver. RSI(14) near 29 and ATR(14) around 4 pips — slow, one-way drift rather than impulse, with the 1.14292 swing low the last shelf below.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.14441, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14292 confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.14250 round number
Reclaim of the 1.14441 asia base would invalidate the range-break read
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 GMT) land within the next few bars and can reset intraday structure
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 29 · price 1.14336
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
The overnight Asian range between 1.14440 and 1.14500 broke lower into the pre-London hours, with price now pressing the session low at 1.14324 and grinding toward the 1.14292 swing low. Sellers have led all window, consistent with a DXY holding above 100.00 on hawkish Fed pricing; RSI(14) at 28.5 and ATR(14) near 4 pips show a slow, low-volatility bleed rather than an impulsive drop.
Support: 1.14324, 1.14292, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14292 swing low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.14200 round number
A reclaim of 1.14440 (asia low) invalidates the range break read
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT plus ECB's Vujčić could materially shift this read within the next few bars
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into late Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.14359
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range base broken.
Price coiled in a 6-pip Asian range between the 1.14441 asia base and 1.14500 asia high for most of the session, then broke lower, printing a session low at 1.14337 and closing 1.14359 — below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 33. The slide is dollar-led, DXY holding above 100.00 at two-month highs, leaving EUR near seven-week lows.
Support: 1.14337, 1.14292, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14441, 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14441 asia base would invalidate the range-break read
A close below the 1.14292 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.14200 psych
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT can reset this intraday structure
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 32 · price 1.14359
Lower highs into Asian range break lower.
Asia hours have broken the 1.14445 range base that held for six hours, dropping to a 1.14337 session low that sits just above Monday's 1.14292 prior day low; price is under both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 32. The slide extends the dollar-led move that took DXY to two-month highs, with each bounce capped beneath the 1.14488 lower high and the 1.14548 prior high untested since the NY recovery.
Support: 1.14337, 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14445, 1.14488, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14445 asia base would invalidate the range break read
Loss of 1.14292 prior day low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1400 psych level
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT, then US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT, can reset this intraday structure
ATR(14) near 3.4 pips — bar ranges have expanded from the 1-pip Asian lull
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 27 · price 1.14339
Lower highs into a break of the Asian range low.
Asia broke down out of its 1.1444–1.1450 coil in the last two hours, price closing 1.14339 just above the prior day low at 1.14292 with RSI(14) at 27 and ATR only 3.4 pips. The slide extends the dollar-led move that took DXY above 100.00, and supply has capped every bounce since the 1.14548 NY high.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14441, 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the asia low at 1.14441 would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold 1.14292 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1400 psych level
Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 GMT) and US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT can reset this intraday structure
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into the break.
Asia compressed into a tight 1.14439–1.14488 range for eight hours before breaking the floor late in the session, printing 1.14371 and holding under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 29. The drop extends the dollar-led slide that already took EUR to seven-week lows around 1.1433, and the bounce so far has stalled below the broken asia low.
Support: 1.14371, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14439, 1.14488
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14439 asia low would neutralise the range break
Loss of 1.14371 session low exposes the 1.14292 swing low
Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 GMT) and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT can reset this intraday structure
ATR near 4 pips means the current range is compressed for the session
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower off a quiet Asia range · RSI 31 · price 1.14398
Lower highs since the NY swing high; Asia range low broken.
Asia held a 6-pip coil between 1.1444 and the asia range hi at 1.1450 before the last two bars sliced through it to a session low of 1.14370, closing 1.14398 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR only ~3.6 pips. The NY swing high at 1.14548 remains the cap, with the dollar sitting at two-month highs on hawkish Fed repricing per the digest.
Support: 1.1437, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1450 asia range hi would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold the 1.14370 session low exposes the 1.14292 prior low
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT can reset this structure within hours
Lower highs since London; Asian range base broken.
Asia held a tight 1.14445–1.14488 range for eight hours before the last two bars cut through the base, price now 1.14381 with RSI(14) at 27.5 and ATR(14) just 3.3 pips. Sequence of lower highs from the 1.14705 London-rebound peak through the 1.14548 NY high stays intact, with the dollar pinned at two-month highs above DXY 100.00 capping every bounce.
Support: 1.1433, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14445, 1.14488, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14445 (asia base) would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold 1.1433 (prior low) puts the 1.14292 day low back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next catalyst and can reset this intraday structure
Eurozone flash PMIs through the European morning could widen the current 3-pip ATR sharply
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat in tight range · RSI 31 · price 1.14429
Lower highs since 1.14779; Asian range compressing at the lows.
Late-NY recovery stalled with a rejection at the 1.14548 prior high, and the Asia session has done nothing but compress between 1.14500 and 1.14440 with ATR down to ~3 pips. Last two bars have leaked to a new session low at 1.14429, RSI(14) near 31, with the dollar holding two-month highs above DXY 100.00 capping any bounce attempt.
Support: 1.14429, 1.14292, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Sustained break of the 1.14429 session low reopens 1.14336 london low and the 1.14292 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.14500 asian high would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT are the likely trigger to break this Asian range
Price is mechanically flat in the Asia session, pinned in a 5-pip band between the asia low at 1.14445 and the asia high at 1.14500 after the NY bounce off 1.14292 stalled at the ny high of 1.14548. ATR(14) has collapsed to ~3 pips and RSI(14) sits mid-30s — the dollar-led slide that printed the prior low is on hold, not reversed.
Support: 1.14445, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Break of the asia low at 1.14445 puts the 1.14292 prior low back in play
15m close above the asia high at 1.14500 would extend the range toward the ny high at 1.14548
French 07:15 GMT and Eurozone 08:00 GMT flash PMIs land inside the next few hours and can void this compression
ATR under 3 pips means any range break will look outsized relative to recent bars
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.14478
Lower highs into 1.14292, then a tight 10-pip consolidation.
EUR/USD sold through London and into NY on the hawkish-Fed / DXY-above-100 bid, printing 1.14292 before a bounce to the 1.14548 NY high. Early Asia is inert: price is pinned in a 1.14445–1.14500 band, ATR(14) down to ~3 pips and RSI(14) back at the midline — no structure in play at the current bar.
Support: 1.14445, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14445 asia low re-opens the 1.14292 prior low
A reclaim of the 1.14548 ny high would break the chain of lower highs
EZ flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can void this low-volatility read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.1447
Lower highs off 1.1478, now compressed in a 5-pip Asian range above 1.1444.
London–NY hours drove EUR/USD from 1.1478 down to a 1.14292 session low as DXY held above 100.00 on hawkish Fedspeak, with the bounce capped at the 1.14548 ny high. Asia has since gone inert: 96-bar window ends in a 1.14445–1.14500 range with ATR(14) at under 3 pips and RSI(14) flat near 47 — no structure in play at the last close.
Support: 1.14445, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548, 1.14694
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 10:15, Germany 10:30, EZ 11:00 broker time) land inside the next session and can break this range either way
M15 close below the 1.14445 asia low re-opens the 1.14292 session low
Acceptance above the 1.14548 ny high would end the lower-high sequence off 1.14694
US flash PMIs later in the day are the offsetting dollar catalyst for this pair
EUR/USD trended lower through London and NY on the dollar bid (DXY above 100.00), printing an ny low at 1.14292 before a late-NY recovery stalled at the 1.14548 ny high — rejection there and price has since gone flat. Early Asia is a 4-pip coil between 1.14447 and 1.14490, price pinned just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR(14) only ~3 pips.
Support: 1.14447, 1.14332, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14447 asia low re-opens 1.14332 swing low and the 1.14292 ny low
M15 close above the 1.14548 ny high breaks the chain of lower highs and puts 1.14705 prior high back in view
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 GMT) land inside the London morning and can invalidate this overnight range read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the offsetting dollar catalyst later in the session
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.14465
Lower highs into a tight Asia consolidation above the 1.1429 low.
Early Asia session is dead flat, coiling in a 1.1446–1.1455 box after the dollar-led slide to 1.14292 and the partial retrace of the 1.1478→1.1429 drop; the session high at 1.14548 capped the bounce. RSI(14) at 46 and ATR at roughly 3 pips — no structural development in play, price pinned on EMA20 with lower highs still intact.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14406, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14612
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14455 asia low re-opens the 1.14406 swing low and the 1.14292 prior low
A close above the 1.14548 session high would break the lower-high chain and put 1.14612 swing high back in play
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT can void this quiet-range read within hours
Lower highs into a tight late-session coil above the day low.
Price slid through London and NY from 1.14779 to a 1.14292 day low — the euro-negative leg came with DXY holding above 100.00 and soft EZ consumer confidence — then recovered to 1.14548 late in NY. The last three hours are a 4-5 pip coil between 1.14455 and 1.14500 on Asia-open liquidity, with ATR(14) compressed to ~4 pips and RSI(14) flat near 46, sitting right on EMA20.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548, 1.14705
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14455 coil low reopens the 1.14292 day low
Acceptance above 1.14500 coil top puts the 1.14548 ny high back in play; the lower-highs sequence from 1.14705 stays intact below it
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can break this coil within hours