Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1495; 1.1400 lost.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's NY-session high at 1.1495, with the weekly open at 1.1481 now well above price. Tuesday's and Wednesday's London sessions each started a fresh leg lower, and the strong US PMI extended Wednesday's NY drop through the 1.1400 round number to a week low at 1.1370, despite beats in the Eurozone PMIs. The bounce off the week low stalled at 1.1393, just under 1.1400, which leaves a retest of the break in play. Today's asia low at 1.1376 sits just above it, with price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1429, 1.1448
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 round number and EMA(20) would undercut the breakout read
Failure to hold the asia low at 1.1376 and the week low at 1.1370 extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the tue low at 1.1429 toward the prior close at 1.1448 (61.8% fib) would break the lower-highs trendline
German IFO at 08:00 UTC, Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 1.1495 week high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high was rejected in the London afternoon. London sessions opened each leg lower, and Wednesday's NY-hours drop after the strong US PMI set the 1.1370 week low as upbeat Eurozone PMIs failed to lift EUR. The NY-afternoon bounce stalled at 1.1394, below the ema20 at the 1.1400 psych level and the 23.6% retracement of the Mon high–Wed low leg. RSI(14) has recovered to ~31 from sub-20 at the low, with no divergence.
Support: 1.13698
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14292, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1400 (ema20, psych) and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in the sequence
Tuesday low 1.1429, near the 50% retracement of the Mon high–Wed low leg, is the first overhead marker, with the Wed high at 1.1450 above it
Failure to hold the 1.1370 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Thursday's Schnabel (07:15 UTC), German IFO (08:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's week high.
EUR/USD has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high. Each session since Tuesday's London open has pressed lower, and pullbacks have stayed capped below EMA(20). The blowout US PMI extended the slide during NY hours through the 1.1400 psych level to the 1.1370 wed low, overriding upbeat Eurozone PMIs; RSI(14) near 31 shows stretched momentum with no divergence yet. Above price, the 1.1429 tue low and the 1.1450 wed high line up with the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop, and the lower-highs trendline now runs near 1.1415.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1429, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1400 psych and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1415 would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1370 wed low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 1.1350 round number
Recovery through the 1.1429 tue low (50% fib) would mark a deeper retracement of the week's drop
German IFO (08:00 UTC), Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs each session since Monday's 1.1495 peak; 1.1400 broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs every session since Monday's 1.1495 high at the NY open. Today's US PMI beat broke the 1.1400 round number during NY hours and took price to a week low at 1.1370, about 110 pips under the weekly open and well below the 1.1448 prior close. Price holds under a falling EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 32. Long lower wicks show demand stepping in at the week low, but the bounce has stalled beneath the round number, and the fib 38.2 of the week's decline sits just above at 1.1418.
Support: 1.13698, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14177, 1.14482
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 round number would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1370 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Recovery through the fib 38.2 at 1.1418 and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read; 1.1448 prior close is the next marker
German IFO (Thu 08:00 UTC), Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session peak at 1.1495. Tuesday's London-open drop and Wednesday's steady London grind carried it well below the 1.1481 weekly open, and the strong US PMIs in NY hours pushed it through the 1.1400 psych level to a 1.1370 week low, even though Eurozone PMIs beat. The week low drew a sharp hourly rejection, but price still sits below the ema20 near 1.1411, with RSI(14) back to ~33 from oversold, and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline (1.1418) and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1435 sit overhead.
Support: 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1411, 1.1447
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1400 psych and the ema20 near 1.1411 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1370 week low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1447 tue close invalidates the week's downtrend read
Thu German IFO (08:00 UTC), Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending into oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.13757
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high; 1.1400 broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high. Bounces have faded at or below EMA(20), with Tuesday's NY recovery stalling at 1.1455. Wednesday's slide began in the Asian session. The US PMI beat in NY hours then pushed price through the 1.1400 psych level to a 1.1375 day low, even though Eurozone PMIs were upbeat. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold but shows no divergence against Tuesday's low.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1411, 1.1448
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 psych level and ema20 near 1.1411 would signal the breakdown is stalling
Lower-highs trendline now near 1.1405 caps the sequence; a break above it changes the read
Recovery through the 1.1448 prior close and 61.8% of the week high fib retracement would break the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the 1.1375 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Thu German IFO 08:00 UTC, Williams 08:10 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high.
Price has printed a steady run of lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 week high. Tuesday's London and NY sell-offs and today's slide from the Asian session carried it to 1.1400, and the hot US PMI (58.4) swamped the EZ PMI beat to push it through that psych level into the 1.1383 week low early in NY. Price sits below EMA(20), near the 1.1420 lower high, and below EMA(50). The lower-high trendline from Tuesday is intact, and RSI(14) near 24 is oversold after a near-uninterrupted decline.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14195, 1.14482
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 psych level would mark today's NY break as a false break
Recovery through the 1.1420 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the week's sequence; Tuesday's 1.1448 tue close is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.1383 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1350 round number
Oversold RSI(14) near 24 leaves room for a bounce toward the psych level without changing the structure
German IFO (08:00 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high.
Price has carved a clean run of lower highs from Monday's 1.1495 week high. Each London-session selloff broke fresh lows, with Tuesday's low at 1.1429 giving way through Wednesday's London and NY hours. Today's leg ran to a 1.1383 week low even after the Eurozone flash PMI beat, as the US composite PMI at 58.4 lifted October Fed hike pricing. The NY-hours bar tailed back to hold the 1.1400 psych level, with RSI(14) near 27 and price capped below the H1 ema20 around 1.1420.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13832
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14292, 1.14482
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1383 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.1400 psych level
A recovery above the ema20 and Tuesday's 1.1429 low, close to the 38.2% fib of the week decline, would mark a pause in the downtrend
A break of the lower highs trendline near 1.1430, with a close back above Tuesday's 1.1448 close, would challenge the downtrend read
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) today, then Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday, could shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 25 · price 1.1400
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since the 1.1495 rejection in Monday's NY session. The London break on Tuesday took out 1.1434, and Wednesday's grind reached a week low of 1.1391 during NY hours, as the US flash PMI beat outweighed the euro-area beats. Price now sits on the 1.1400 psych level, below both EMAs, with the ema20 near 1.1420 capping every bounce today and RSI(14) around 25 in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1391
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1431, 1.1448
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1391 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath the 1.1400 psych level.
A recovery above the ema20 near 1.1420 and the lower-highs trendline would signal the decline stalling. The tue low at 1.1431 (38.2% fib) is the next reference above.
A reclaim of the 1.1448 tue close would break the lower-high structure from Monday.
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) today, then US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near 1.1400 · RSI 24 · price 1.14079
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high.
Lower highs have printed since Monday's 1.1495 week high. Tuesday's London and NY sessions broke below the weekly open range, and today's grind took out the tuesday low and set a week low at 1.1400 as USD firmed on hawkish Fed-speak. Strong eurozone flash PMIs gave no lift. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) near 1.1426 with RSI(14) around 24 oversold, and two tests of 1.1400 into the NY session have held so far.
Support: 1.13996
Resistance: 1.14292, 1.14548, 1.14814
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1400 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the tuesday low at 1.1429 and EMA(20) eases the downtrend read; the 1.1455 swing high is the last lower high
38.2% retracement of the week's decline near 1.1436 sits just above the tuesday low
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.1481 would negate the lower highs structure
Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC and ECB's Cipollone and Lane at 16:00 and 16:30 UTC could shift this read as the US flash PMI reaction settles
13:26 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 28 · price 1.14059
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high.
The Monday–Wednesday decline has carved out lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1495 high. The dominant legs came at Tuesday's London open and through Wednesday's London session, where a clear flash PMI beat failed to lift EUR against broad hawkish-Fed USD strength. Price is capped below the ema20 near 1.1422 and the lower-highs trendline, now testing the 1.1400 week low with RSI(14) around 28 in oversold territory, while Tuesday's 1.1429 low has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1422, 1.1429, 1.1481
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB's Cipollone (16:00 UTC) and Lane (16:30 UTC) remarks are risk for the 1.1400 week low
H1 close below 1.1400 extends the lower-low sequence to a fresh week low
H1 close back above the ema20 and the tuesday low at 1.1429 would break the lower-highs trendline
Recovery through 1.1455 toward the 1.1481 weekly open would unwind the week's lower-high structure
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, no recovery attempt held.
Price has traded below EMA(20) for the whole week, with the weekly open near 1.1481 now roughly 75 pips above spot and every London-session bounce capped beneath the falling average — the 1.1455 prior day high and 1.1448 EMA(50) mark the last two failed attempts. The dominant leg came in yesterday's NY session and has extended through this morning's European hours to a fresh session low at 1.1404, with flash Eurozone PMI beats failing to lift EUR while hawkish Fed repricing keeps the dollar bid. RSI(14) near 25 is at the low end of its weekly cycle, so downside is stretched rather than reversing while 1.1428 caps.
Support: 1.14042, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.1448, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1428 ema20 would be the first break in this week's lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1400 round number confirms a third-day trend extension below the session low at 1.1404
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT and Fed's Barr at 14:05 GMT fall inside the next bars and can reprice this move
ECB Cipollone/Lane at 16:00/16:30 GMT are the EUR-side risk into the NY session
Reclaiming 1.1448 ema50 and 1.1455 prior day hi would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into London · RSI 18 · price 1.14072
Successive lower highs and lower lows, all trade below EMA20.
Third straight day lower: from Monday's 1.14953 high the pair worked through the 1.1425 shelf and London hours today pushed it to a session low of 1.14072, sat right on the 1.1400 round number. Price has held below EMA20 since the Tuesday NY session and each bounce has stalled beneath it — EMA20 is now near 1.14280, with Wednesday's day open at 1.14464 and the prior-day high at 1.14548 capping above. Hawkish Fed commentary has kept the dollar at seven-week highs and the Eurozone flash PMI beat produced no EUR bid; RSI(14) is pinned in the teens with no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 1.14072, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1428, 1.14464, 1.14548
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr after are the highest-impact events for the next bars
ECB's Cipollone 16:00 and Lane 16:30 GMT could reprice the EUR leg intraday
An hourly close back above 1.14280 (ema20) would be the first break of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1400 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, price pinned at week lows.
EURUSD has traded a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence since Monday's open near 1.1481, with the dominant leg coming in the NY session yesterday when the 1.1470 swing high gave way and price sliced through 1.1445 to today's session low at 1.1409. The Eurozone PMI beats were faded entirely — the flows are following the Fed-versus-ECB rate story rather than the growth data — and the bounce off the 1.1433 spike low only reached the 1.1455 prior-day high before supply capped it. Price is roughly 15 pips below the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-20s, the most stretched reading of the week.
Support: 1.14092, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1432, 1.14548, 1.1470
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC fall inside the next few bars and could reset this week's range
An H1 close back above the 1.1432 ema20 would break the lower-highs sequence that has held since Monday
Failure to hold the 1.1409 session low puts the 1.1400 round number directly in play as the next reference
German IFO Thu 08:00 UTC is the nearest EUR-side catalyst after today's US data
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open.
EURUSD has trended lower all week from the 1.1481 weekly open, with the decisive legs coming in the NY session Monday and again through yesterday's NY hours — the pair is now ~80 pips below the week open and pressing a week low at 1.1416. The dominant driver has been dollar strength on hawkish Fed rhetoric; yesterday's upside euro-area flash Composite PMI beat (53.1 vs 51.5) produced only a shallow bounce into 1.1455 before supply resumed. Price has not closed above EMA(20) since late Monday and 1.1425 — the prior late-July low — has flipped from support to a capping level, with RSI(14) near 28 showing the move is extended rather than turning.
Support: 1.1416, 1.1400, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1425, 1.1435, 1.1449
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1425 would invalidate the breakout read and put the ema20 near 1.1435 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1416 week low confirms continuation toward the 1.1400 psych level and the 1.1350 july low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr shortly after are the main risk to this read in the next few bars
ECB Cipollone and Lane speeches later today could force short-covering against the lower-highs line
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's NY session.
Price has trended lower for a third straight session, with the dominant leg arriving in Tuesday's NY hours as DXY cleared 100.00 on the hawkish Fed speaker flow, and the Asian consolidation around 1.1450 broke down rather than repaired. The 1.1436 ema20 has capped every pullback since that break and the pair now sits on the session low at 1.1422, RSI(14) near 31 without a divergence yet. Supply into 1.1450 — the prior high that was lost — remains the nearest structural reference above.
Support: 1.1422, 1.1400, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.1450
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash composite PMI at 08:00 GMT is the session's main euro event and could force a retest of the 1.1450 prior high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read given the Dollar is driving the move
An hourly close back above 1.1450 would break the lower-highs sequence and invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.1422 opens the path toward the 1.1400 psych level and the 1.1350 late-jul base
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's NY high.
EURUSD has ground lower for a third straight session from the weekly open at 1.14814, with the dominant leg coming in the NY session yesterday that broke the 1.14445–1.14548 shelf and printed a fresh week low at 1.14229 — the Dollar did most of the work as DXY held above 100.00 at two-month highs on hawkish Fed repricing, with soft Eurozone consumer confidence adding to the EUR side. Price is pinned beneath EMA(20) near 1.1436, which has capped every Asia-session attempt, and RSI(14) at ~33 is sliding without yet reaching an extreme. The prior-day high at 1.14548 now sits as the upper edge of the lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.14229, 1.1400, 1.1330
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.14548, 1.14814
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash composite PMI at 08:00 GMT, with France 07:15 and Germany 07:30, lands inside the next bar and can reprice this leg either way
An hourly close back above the ema20 at 1.1436, and then 1.14548 prior-day high, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14229 week low opens the path toward the 1.1400 round number and the june lows near 1.1330
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT are the larger driver later in the session given the Dollar is leading
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high, price pinned at week low.
Price has traded below EMA20 since Tuesday's London session, when the slide from 1.1478 accelerated to 1.1434 and the NY session extended it to 1.1429 — the hawkish-Fed repricing that pushed DXY through 100.00 is the driver named in the digest. Monday's 1.1495 area was the last swing high and every bounce since, including the 1.1455 prior high late Tuesday, has been rejected below EMA20 with RSI(14) capping in the mid-40s. Asia hours Wednesday ground out a fresh week low at 1.1425 on thin ranges, leaving the 1.1400 round number as the next reference below.
Support: 1.1425, 1.1400, 1.1330
Resistance: 1.1440, 1.1455, 1.1520
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT land inside the next bar window and can materially shift this read
Sustained H1 closes below 1.1400 round number would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1330 june low zone
Reclaiming the 1.1440 ema20 and a close back above the 1.1455 prior high would break the lower-high chain; 1.1520 stab level is where the digest deems the decline stabilised
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the only high-impact prints and could re-price the dollar leg
Successive lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, fresh week low on the latest bar.
Price has traded a clean descending channel since Monday's 1.14814 open, with every bounce capped lower — 1.14953, then 1.14776, then the prior day high at 1.14548 — and the sharp NY-session leg yesterday took out the 1.1433 shelf on hawkish Fed repricing that has kept DXY pinned above 100.00. The Asia session has extended the slide to a fresh week low at 1.14267, holding below both EMA20 (~1.1444) and EMA50 (~1.1455), with RSI(14) near 33 and no divergence yet as each new low is matched by a lower momentum reading. Next reference points below are the 1.1420 round number and the 1.1400 psych level.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14388, 1.1444, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT are the first structural test — a hard miss keeps the channel intact toward 1.1420/1.1400
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via the dollar leg
An hourly close back above the 1.14388 prior low and the ema20 would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.14548 prior day high would invalidate the descending channel read
Failure to hold 1.1420 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open.
Price has trended down from the 1.1497 area at the start of the window, with the dominant leg arriving in the NY session yesterday as DXY pushed above 100.00 on hawkish Fed repricing and the euro's Consumer Confidence miss added weight. The tight Asia session range between the ema20 near 1.1444 and 1.1449 broke lower into the final bars, leaving the close at 1.14333 just above the prior-day low at 1.14292. RSI(14) at 33.8 is pressing the lower end of its cycle without divergence, and every pullback this week has stalled beneath the descending lower-highs line off the 1.14779 prior-day high and the 1.14548 NY bounce high.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.14548, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14292 confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 1.14000 round number
An H1 close back above 1.14548 would break the lower-highs line and invalidate the continuation read
Eurozone flash PMIs (08:00 GMT) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) both land inside the next bar session and can materially reset this structure
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1444 and holding it would be the first sign the decline is stabilising
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum paused in Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.14383
Lower highs / lower lows since Monday's open, capped by EMA20.
EURUSD has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.14814 weekly open, with the decisive leg coming in the London and NY sessions on Tuesday: the 1.1460 shelf gave way, the spike low at 1.14336 was undercut and price extended to 1.14292, the week low. The driver was dollar-side — hawkish Fed repricing lifting DXY through 100.00 to two-month highs — with a Eurozone Consumer Confidence miss at -16.5 adding to the euro's own drag. Asia has since consolidated in a tight 1.1438–1.1450 band beneath EMA20 near 1.1446, RSI(14) around 36 with no bullish divergence against the 1.14292 low.
Support: 1.14292, 1.14336, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14775, 1.14814
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 1.14548 rebound high would break the lower-highs line and stall the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.14292 week low confirms continuation with 1.1400 round number the next reference
Eurozone flash PMIs at 08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT can reshape this read inside the next few bars
Reclaiming EMA20 and holding it would turn the Asia consolidation into a base rather than a pause
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 36 · price 1.14449
Lower highs and lower lows, now flat-lining above the week low.
The dominant move of the week came in the NY session yesterday, a slide from 1.1477 to 1.14292 that took EUR/USD to 7-week lows as DXY cleared 100.00 on hawkish Fed repricing, with the euro's own Consumer Confidence miss (-16.5 vs -16) adding weight. Price has since ground sideways in a 15-20 pip Asian range under EMA(20) at 1.1451, with the 1.14548 session high capping the one bounce attempt and RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s. ATR(14) near 8 pips shows compression after the impulse rather than a structural turn.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1451, 1.14548
What it said to watch
An H1 close below 1.14292 confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1400 round number
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 1.1451 and the 1.14548 session high would break the lower-highs sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs 08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT are the session's structural risk to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, basing above the week low.
Price has ground down in a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence since Monday's session open, with the dominant leg arriving in the NY session yesterday as DXY pushed above 100.00 on hawkish Fed commentary and Euro-area consumer confidence missed at -16.5. The 1.14292 week low was set late in NY hours and has since been bought back into a tight 1.1440–1.1455 consolidation, but price is still pinned under the ema20 near 1.14500 with RSI(14) recovering only to the low 40s. Each bounce this week has been capped at a progressively lower high — 1.14705, then the 1.14548 prior high.
Support: 1.1440, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the session's structural catalysts
H1 close above the 1.14548 prior high and ema20 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.14292 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.14000 round number
Failure to reclaim the ema20 keeps the 1.1440–1.1455 consolidation as a pause in the downtrend