Lower highs and lows; Thursday range 1.1359–1.1399.
From a 1.1480 weekly open, EUR/USD broke Monday's 1.1462–1.1495 range at Tuesday's London open. It then extended into NY hours Wednesday after the US PMI beats. Hawkish Fedspeak and firm claims capped Thursday's London high at 1.1399 and pushed price back to the 1.1359 week low, which held twice in NY; the German IFO beat barely registered. Price now sits on a flattening EMA(20), below the EMA(50) and the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s. That reads as a pause inside the downtrend rather than a turn, with the 23.6% fib at 1.1391 capping the latest bounce.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1399 thu high breaks the week's structure; the 1.1429 tue low sits next above
Rejection again at the 23.6% fib at 1.1391 keeps the Thursday range intact
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and U-Mich inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday, plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.13776
Lower highs since Monday; tight 1.1359–1.1399 range Thursday.
EUR/USD has posted lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US PMI beats took the pair through 1.1400, and the descending trendline off Tuesday's high is now capping price. On Thursday the London spike to the 1.1399 ifo high was rejected, and the 1.1359 week low held twice through NY hours despite the claims beat. Price sits flat on EMA(20), below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46 and the thu ny high at 1.1391 matching the 23.6% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1399, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 ifo high reclaims 1.1400, breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1411
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low extends the downtrend toward 1.1340 key support
Sustained acceptance above the descending trendline would shift the read from downtrend to base-building
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and final U-Mich 14:00 UTC Friday, plus Williams and Hammack, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, Thursday compressing in 1.1359-1.1399 range.
Lower highs since Monday's NY-open peak at 1.1495, with the dollar-driven slide on hawkish Fedspeak and US PMI beats accelerating through Wednesday's NY session to the wed low near 1.1369. Thursday's London spike on the German IFO beat stalled at the thu high of 1.1399, at the lower-high trendline and near the 23.6% of the week's drop. The post-claims dip then set a week low at 1.1359 with RSI(14) near 43 versus a sub-30 reading at Wednesday's low, a mild bullish divergence. Price is pinned just under ema20 at 1.1377, and the day's range is tightening.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.1399, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1399 thu high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens 1.1429 tue low
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Repeated H1 closes below ema20 keep the downtrend read intact despite the RSI divergence
Fri US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday compressing into a 1.1359–1.1399 range.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs from Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came in the London sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday and extended into NY hours as US PMIs beat and hawkish Fedspeak lifted the dollar. On Thursday, the IFO-driven London pop to the 1.1399 day high was sold and a NY-hours spike to 1.1391 also faded, leaving price pinned beneath the lower-highs line and just under the ema20 near 1.1378. The week low at 1.1359 has absorbed several tests, and RSI(14) is near 45, off oversold with no divergence.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 psych level and the 1.1325/40 support zone
Close above the 1.1399 day high and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence; the 38.2% fib of the week decline near 1.1411 then comes into view
1.1450 wed high marks the last major lower high; the downtrend structure stays intact below it
Friday's US Durable Goods, final U-Mich and Fed's Williams could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday compressing into a 1.1359–1.1399 range below EMA(20).
EUR/USD has stepped lower from Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's London session and in Wednesday's NY session after the blowout US PMIs, and hawkish Fedspeak plus strong claims today pressed price to a 1.1359 week low. Thursday's post-IFO spike to 1.1399 and the NY push to the fib 23.6% at 1.1391 were both rejected below the lower-highs trendline, leaving price under EMA(20). RSI(14) near 38 holds above Wednesday's trough despite the lower price low, a bullish divergence inside the downtrend.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.13911, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1340 key support
H1 close above the 1.1400 round number and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's descending structure, putting the fib 38.2% near 1.1411 in play
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 1.1377 leaves the bullish divergence unconfirmed
US Durable Goods (Fri 12:30 UTC), final UoM (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday compressing in a 1.1359–1.1399 range.
EURUSD opened the week near 1.1481 and has since dropped about 135 pips. The main legs came in Tuesday's London session and through Wednesday's NY hours, as October Fed-hike pricing and 5.14% UST yields swamped the Ifo and PMI beats. Thursday's week low at 1.1359 undercut the wed low of 1.1369 by only ~11 pips, while RSI(14) printed a higher trough, a bullish divergence as the range compresses. Price is sitting just under EMA(20) near 1.1380, and the NY high of 1.1391 stalled at the lower-highs trendline and the 23.6% of the weekly drop fib.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1399, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 thu high / 1.1400 would break the lower-highs trendline and bring the 38.2% of the weekly drop fib (~1.1411) and the 1.1455 lower high into view
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1340 psych level
Price holding below EMA(20) at 1.1380 keeps Thursday's range capped from above
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), EZ GDP (07:00 UTC) and US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) on Friday could shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.13709
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight 1.1359-1.1399 band on Thursday.
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came at Tuesday's London open and through Wednesday's NY session after the strong US PMIs, and price has not revisited the tue low at 1.1429 since. Thursday's London bounce on the German Ifo beat stalled at the thu high of 1.1399, below the lower-highs trendline, and met a rejection there as US yields held near 5.14%. Price now compresses just above the 1.1359 week low and under the ema20 at 1.1376, with RSI(14) near 41 and no divergence showing.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1376, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu high at 1.1399 and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low exposes the 1.1340 key support flagged in the macro read
A retrace beyond 38.2% of the week decline (~1.1411) would put the tue low zone near 1.1429 back in play
Fri US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed Williams (Fri 09:15 UTC) is a London-session risk to the ema20 cap
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight range just under EMA20.
The week opened near 1.1481 and has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 peak. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs drove the largest leg, taking price from the wed high near 1.1449 to 1.1370 during NY hours. Today's London-open push on the Ifo beat met rejection at the 1.1399 day high, right at the lower-highs trendline, and firm US claims then extended the week low to 1.1359, with price now compressing just below EMA(20) at 1.1378 and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1399, 1.1449
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 day high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low exposes 1.1340 key support; a close below extends the downtrend
Recovery back through the 1.1449 wed high would erase Wednesday's PMI leg
Fri: Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could reprice October hike odds and shift this read
Four-day sequence of lower highs; Thursday's Ifo bounce rejected near 1.1400.
The pair is down from Monday's 1.1481 weekly open and Monday's NY high at 1.1495, with each session printing lower highs. Tuesday's London open broke the range, and Wednesday ground lower through the Asia and NY sessions after the hot US PMIs. Thursday's London push to the ifo high at 1.1399 on the German Ifo beat was rejected, and NY hours extended to a fresh week low at 1.1359 after firm US jobless claims, as rising Fed-hike odds kept the USD bid. Price now sits just under the flat ema20 near 1.1378, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.1378 would signal the post-claims leg is losing traction
Close above the 1.1400 ifo high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-highs read
Reclaiming the tue low at 1.1429 (38.2% fib zone) would mark a deeper retracement of the week's decline
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low exposes 1.1340 key support
Fri US durable goods and UoM inflation expectations, plus Williams/Hammack remarks, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight range 1.1361–1.1399 today.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high, with Tuesday's London session and Wednesday's NY session (after the hot US PMIs) driving most of the ~135-pip slide as Fed-hike repricing and 5%+ UST yields kept USD bid. The IFO beat lifted price to 1.1399 early in London today, but the move met rejection below the 1.14 handle and a fresh week low at 1.1361 followed. Price sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1380 with RSI(14) around 44, and today's marginal lower low came without a new RSI low, a bullish divergence against Wednesday's washout.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1399, 1.1481
What it said to watch
H1 close above today's high at 1.1399 and the lower highs trendline breaks the week's sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1361 week low exposes MUFG's 1.1340 key support
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 1.1380 would open a retrace of the week's decline toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1413, still well below the 1.1481 weekly open
New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC today and the Trump-Xi headlines could shift this read near-term
Fri GDP (07:00 UTC), Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for Fed-pricing and the pair
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high; compressing near the week low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session high at 1.14953. Wednesday's NY session delivered the largest leg lower as blowout US PMIs revived October Fed-hike bets, and the move has outweighed strong eurozone PMI and IFO beats. Thursday's London bounce stalled at the thu high 1.13989, just shy of 1.1400, then reversed to a fresh week low at 1.13613 after hawkish Williams remarks, leaving price under the ema20 near 1.1379 with RSI(14) near 40 and the lower-highs line from Tuesday still capping rallies.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1379, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the ema20 (~1.1379) and the thu high 1.13989 would break the lower-highs line and challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold the week low 1.13613 exposes the 1.1340 key support flagged by MUFG
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC) and New Home Sales (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
A recovery to the tue low 1.14292 would meet the 50% fib of the week decline, a level to watch for rejection or break
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, sub-1.1400 rejection.
EUR/USD has shed about 134 pips from Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's London session and in Wednesday's London and NY sessions after the blowout US PMIs, with the IFO beat barely registering. Thursday's London push stalled at the 1.1399 london high, a rejection just below 1.1400 that preceded a fresh week low at 1.1361. Price now sits beneath EMA(20) at 1.1385 with RSI(14) near 38, and the lower highs trendline is still intact.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.13853, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1399 london high and 1.1400 breaks the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1361 week low exposes the 1.1340 key support flagged by MUFG
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC plus Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Recovery through the 1.1429 tue low, near the 50% level of the week's decline fib, would signal a deeper retracement
Lower highs since Monday, tight base above 1.1368.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 110 pips from Monday's 1.1481 week open and 1.1495 week high. Tuesday's London break lower was extended through Wednesday after the hot US PMIs and the push in UST yields above 5%, with the pair giving up the Tue low at 1.1429 and printing a week low at 1.1369. Thursday has held a 30-pip base, but the London bounce on the IFO beat met rejection at the 1.1399 Thu high, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of the week's drop. Price has slipped back below the H1 ema20 near 1.1383, and RSI(14) is sitting in the low 40s.
Support: 1.13685, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1383, 1.13989, 1.14292
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1368 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1340 psych area
Reclaim of the ema20 and an H1 close above the 1.1399 thu high breaks the lower-highs line
Recovery through the 1.1429 tue low would invalidate the Wednesday breakdown structure
Lower highs since Monday; 30-pip base above week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 top, and the hot US PMI extended Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.1369 week low as Fed-hike pricing lifted the dollar. Price has since held a tight base above that low, with RSI(14) near 45 against Wednesday's oversold print, a bullish divergence. The London push after the German IFO beat stalled at the 1.1399 day high, just through the lower-highs trendline, and price closed back under the ema20.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1399, 1.1419
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1399 day high and the lower-highs trendline opens the prior high at 1.1419, near the 38.2% week fib
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1340 key support
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 would weaken the downtrend read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 49 · price 1.13947
Lower highs from Monday; double low at 1.1369 now testing its 1.1395-1.1400 neckline.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 125 pips from Monday's 1.1495 NY-session high. A Tuesday London drop and Wednesday's slide after the hot US PMIs printed a steady run of lower highs below EMA(50). A double low at 1.1369-1.1370 formed across Wednesday's NY session and today's Asia session, with RSI(14) at about 29 on the second low versus about 21 on the first. The London open lift has broken the lower-highs line and put price back above the ema20 at 1.1391; it is now testing the 1.1400 round number neckline, with the 1.1420 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the week's drop just above.
Support: 1.1391, 1.1369, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1447
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1400 round number completes the double low and opens the 1.1420 lower high / 38.2% week drop fib
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.1391 and a break of the 1.1369 double low would resume the downtrend toward the 1.1340 mufg level
Recovery through the 1.1447 wed open would negate the lower-highs sequence
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 top; tight Asian range at 1.1369-1.1390.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 top. The heaviest selling came in Wednesday's NY session after the US PMI beats and a weak 5y auction lifted Fed-hike pricing, taking price to the 1.1369 week low even as EZ PMIs beat. Thursday's Asian session has compressed into a 1.1369–1.1390 band, capped by the ema20 near 1.1390. RSI(14) has recovered to the low-40s from sub-30 readings, and the descending trendline off Tuesday's highs sits near 1.1395, just under the 1.14 pivot.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1400, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14 pivot and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-Thursday decline (~1.1417), then the 1.1450 wed high, are the next references
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1350 round number
German IFO (08:00 UTC), Williams and Lane this morning, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; tight 1.1369–1.1394 range since Wed NY.
EURUSD has carved lower highs along a descending trendline since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest leg came through Wednesday's London-NY transition, when the US PMI beat outpaced strong EZ PMIs and pushed price from the 1.1420 swing high to 1.1370. Since Wednesday's NY session price has compressed into a roughly 25-pip band between the 1.1369 week low and the 1.1394 range top, holding just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) around 42 and the 1.1400 psych level overhead.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1394 range top and 1.1400 psych breaks the consolidation and opens the 23.6–38.2% fib zone toward the 1.1420 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
A move through the descending trendline, now near 1.1410, would end the week's lower-high sequence
Schnabel (07:15Z), German IFO (08:00Z) and Williams (08:10Z) during the London session could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30Z and Trump-Xi summit headlines in NY hours are USD swing risks
Lower highs since Monday; Asia compression at week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-open top at 1.1495. The main legs lower came in Tuesday's London session and Wednesday's NY session, when hot US PMIs pushed price through the 1.1400 round number despite beat-heavy EZ flash PMIs. Thursday's Asia session is compressing between the 1.1369 week low and the 1.1387 asia high, below EMA(20) near 1.1391, with RSI(14) near 39 holding above Wednesday's oversold trough even as price made a marginal new low.
Support: 1.13685
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.1400, 1.14195
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1387 asia high and EMA(20) near 1.1391 breaks the Asia compression
Reclaiming the 1.1400 round number puts the 1.1420 lower high (38.2% of the week decline) and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1410 in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low extends the lower-low sequence and voids the bullish RSI divergence
German IFO 08:00 UTC, Schnabel/Lane and US Initial Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight Asian range at the week low.
EUR/USD has printed a lower high every session since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The heaviest leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when blowout US PMIs revived October Fed-hike bets and pushed price through the 1.1400 psych pivot. Asia has since held a tight range below the 1.1387 asian high and under EMA(20) near 1.1391, barely undercutting the 1.1369 week low, while RSI(14) near 32 prints a higher low versus Wednesday's oversold trough, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1400 psych pivot, where the lower-high trendline now sits, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low confirms a fresh lower low, with the 1.1350 round number the next reference
A break of the 1.1387 asian high that stalls below the 1.1420 swing high (38.2% of the week-high fib) keeps the bounce corrective
German IFO 08:00 UTC plus Schnabel, Lane and Williams this morning could reshape the Asian range
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson into the NY session could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 40 · price 1.13847
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 NY high; tight consolidation 1.1369-1.1395 since Wednesday's NY low.
EURUSD has sold off steadily from Monday's 1.1495 NY-session high. Tuesday's London open cracked 1.1470 and Wednesday's US PMI beat carried the drop into NY to 1.1370, despite strong eurozone PMIs earlier that day. Since then price has held in a 25-pip consolidation under EMA(20) near 1.1393, with the range top at 1.1395 just below the 1.1400 round number. Thursday's Asia session printed only a marginal new week low at 1.1369, and RSI(14) came in higher there, near 40 versus sub-30 at Wednesday's low, so downside momentum is fading.
Support: 1.1369
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1415, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1395 range top and the lower-highs line near 1.1400 would break the week's descending structure; the 1.1415 breakdown shelf is next above
Failure to hold the 1.1369 week low confirms a fresh lower low and voids the bullish rsi divergence read, with the 1.1350 round number the next reference
The 50% week drop fib sits at 1.1432, next to the 1.1429 tuesday low, and marks the upper bound of any retracement
German IFO (08:00 UTC) with Schnabel and Lane, then US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Fedspeak, could shift this read
Lower highs daily since Monday; tight base under ema20.
EURUSD has printed lower highs every session since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The decisive leg came in NY hours Wednesday, when hot US PMIs lifted October Fed hike bets and pushed price below the 1.1400 psych level despite beating eurozone PMIs. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1370–1.1394 band just under ema20 through the Asia session, sitting on the week low with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.13698, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1394, 1.1400, 1.14292
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 and the 1.1400 psych level would breach the lower highs line and break the daily lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1370 extends the downtrend toward the 1.1350 round number
Reclaiming the tue low at 1.1429, near the 38.2% of the week drop, would shift the read to a deeper retracement
German IFO at 08:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; price sitting on the swing low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-open rejection at 1.1495. The main legs came in Tuesday's London and NY sessions and in Wednesday's NY session, when the hot US PMIs drove price to a 1.1370 swing low despite the eurozone PMI beat. Wednesday's bounce stalled at 1.1393, just under EMA(20) near 1.1396 and the 1.1400 psych level, and the Asia session is now retesting the swing low with RSI(14) near 32, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1418, 1.1447
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 psych level and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs sequence and open the fib 38.2 at 1.1418, then the tue close at 1.1447
Failure to hold the 1.1370 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
German IFO at 08:00 UTC and Williams at 08:10 UTC could shift the read into London
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC with Hammack and Paulson after; a soft print could trigger a pullback toward 1.1400
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the 1.1400 break · RSI 34 · price 1.13828
Lower highs each day since Monday; Asia session compressing above week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs every day since Monday's 1.1495 week high. The dominant leg came through Wednesday's London and NY sessions: the hotter US PMI swamped the EZ PMI beat, and price broke 1.1400 to a 1.1370 week low. The bounce from the low stalled at 1.1394 (bounce high) beneath the 1.1400 round number, with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 34. The Asia session is compressing in a tight band above the 1.1376 session low.
Support: 1.1376, 1.13698
Resistance: 1.13935, 1.1400, 1.14195
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 round number would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1370 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.1420 lower high, the Wednesday London high, breaks the lower highs trendline read
German IFO at 08:00 UTC plus Schnabel/Lane remarks could shift the read on 1.1400
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Williams Fedspeak drive the NY session
Lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 peak; Wednesday broke Tuesday's low and 1.14.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 1.1495. Wednesday's slide started in Asia, extended through London and accelerated in the NY session after the hot US PMI, breaking Tuesday's 1.1430 low and the 1.14 handle into a 1.1370 wed low. Price has since stalled just under the EMA(20) near 1.1397, with RSI(14) recovering to the high-30s. The lower-highs trendline sits near 1.1409, and the fib 38.2 retracement of the week's drop is at 1.1418.
Support: 1.13698
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14177, 1.14474
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.14 handle and EMA(20) would test the lower-highs trendline near 1.1409 and the fib 38.2 at 1.1418
Failure to hold the 1.1370 wed low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through the 1.1447 tue close (61.8% retracement) would neutralise this week's down-leg
German IFO (08:00 UTC) and Schnabel/Lane remarks could shift this read during London
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers could shift this read in the NY session