21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into July/June lows · RSI 27 · price 1.13833
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak at 1.1711; price at two-month lows.
Month-long downtrend from the Aug 21 high at 1.1711. The Sep 9 lower high at 1.1654 capped the bounce, and the mid-September break of the 1.1566 base extended the decline to 1.1370. Price sits below both the ema20 (1.1514) and a now-falling ema50 (1.1537), with the ema20 crossing under the ema50 last week. Hawkish Fed repricing, blowout US PMIs and yields above 5% drove the dollar despite EZ PMI and IFO beats, putting the pair about 30 pips above the july low at 1.1353 and the june low at 1.1324 with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.1514, 1.1537
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the june low at 1.1324 extends the lower-low chain beyond the quarter's floor
- A higher low held above the july low at 1.1353 while RSI lifts from oversold would be a first basing sign
- A reclaim of the sep low at 1.1455 (prior support) eases the downtrend read; the ema20 and 38.2% fib cluster sits near 1.1500-1.1514
- A daily close back above the ema50 at 1.1537 would neutralise the ema cross
- Fri US Durable Goods, final U-Mich inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read