Lower highs and lower lows, tight base at 1.1359-1.1399.
EUR/USD has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 1.1654 swing top, a roughly 2% slide driven by the dollar as hawkish Fed repricing and strong US PMIs outweighed upbeat eurozone PMI and IFO data. The last six bars have compressed into a 1.1359-1.1399 base, with the swing low retested twice and the round number capping bounces. ATR(14) near 23 pips is steady, and price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, so the move is stalling rather than turning.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1325-1.1340 support zone
Reclaim of the 1.1400 round number, then 1.1430 (breakdown level near the 50% fib), would challenge the lower-highs structure
Only a move back above the 1.1495 swing high breaks the descending lower highs line
US Durable Goods and final U-Mich Friday, plus Williams and Hammack Fedspeak, could shift this read materially
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; range break below 1.1455.
EURUSD has printed a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 1.1654 swing high. The 1.1455–1.1497 consolidation gave way this week, and price has stepped down to a 1.1359 swing low, just above 1.1340 key support. The leg has come on hawkish Fed repricing and US yields above 5%, which have overridden Ifo and PMI beats in Europe. RSI(14) near 29 is oversold, ATR(14) around 22 pips shows modest expansion, and a falling trendline off 1.1471 has capped each rebound, with 1.1399 the latest lower high.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1340, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1428, 1.1497
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1340 key support extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
A close above the 1.1399 lower high and the falling trendline would be the first break in the lower-high structure, with the fib 50% at 1.1428 next overhead
Reclaim of the 1.1497 range top invalidates the downtrend read
Fri US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via October Fed hike odds
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 21 · price 1.13677
Stair-step lower highs and lower lows; three ranges each broken lower.
Stair-step downtrend from the 1.1654 swing high. Three consecutive ranges (1.1570-1.1650, 1.1525-1.1560, then 1.1455-1.1500 with its range floor at 1.1455) each resolved lower, and price now sits at a fresh swing low near 1.1361 with EMA20 below EMA50 and both overhead. Wednesday's blowout US PMIs and 5%+ UST yields drove the latest leg through the 1.1430 prior low despite eurozone PMI and IFO beats, and the lower-highs trendline has capped every rebound. ATR(14) near 23 pips has expanded out of the mid-window range regime, while RSI around 21 is deep in oversold territory.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1340, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1399, 1.1430, 1.1455
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.1399 swing high (the 1.1400 pivot) would print the first higher high since the slide began.
Reclaiming the 1.1430 prior low (23.6% fib) and the 1.1455 range floor would put the lower-highs trendline near 1.146 back in play.
Failure to hold the 1.1361 swing low exposes the 1.1340 cited floor flagged by MUFG, then the 1.1300 round number.
A higher RSI low against a lower price low would register as bullish RSI divergence from oversold.
Fedspeak (Paulson today, Williams Fri) and Friday's Durable Goods could materially shift this read via October hike odds and UST yields.
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 33 · price 1.13946
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top, stepping down through successive ranges.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence intact since the 1.1654 top, with the pair stepping down from the 1.1590-1.1650 range to 1.1530-1.1560 and then 1.1460-1.1500 before that last shelf gave way this week as ATR(14) expanded. Blowout US PMIs and building October Fed-hike bets drove the slide to the 1.1369 swing low, swamping strong EZ PMI and IFO beats. Price is now lifting back toward the 1.1400 psych pivot, just under the lower-high trendline, with both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1340
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1400 psych pivot and the lower-high trendline would signal a corrective bounce, with the 1.1430 broken low next
Rejection below 1.1400 keeps the lower-high sequence intact and the 1.1369 swing low in focus
Break of the 1.1369 swing low exposes the 1.1340 support MUFG flagged (mufg level)
A close above the 1.1455 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1495-1.1369 leg, would undermine the downtrend read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-Sept top.
EURUSD has stair-stepped lower from the 1.1654 early-Sept top in a sequence of ranges and breaks. The latest leg lost the 1.1455 range floor, then broke the 1.1430 prior low and the 1.1400 pivot, as blowout US PMIs revived October Fed hike bets and swamped the Eurozone PMI beats. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR has expanded from the mid-teens during the range to about 21 pips. RSI in the mid-20s shows an oversold, stretched leg, with bars now overlapping near the 1.1369 swing low.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1430, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1400 pivot would signal the break is failing; the 1.1430 prior low and the 50% fib near 1.1432 sit just above
H4 close below the 1.1369 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Lower highs trendline from 1.1495 caps the move; a close through it and the 1.1455 range floor would break the downtrend structure
German IFO (08:00 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 201K) plus Williams/Hammack Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; stair-step range breaks.
Lower-high structure is intact from the 1.1654 top down to the 1.1496 prior high. Price stepped through successive ranges and lost the 1.1455 range floor this week, then slipped below the 1.1400 psych level to a 1.1370 swing low. The hot US PMI and rising October Fed hike odds swamped the Eurozone services beat. ATR(14) has expanded to about 20 pips with RSI in oversold territory, and price trades below a bearishly stacked EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1455, 1.1496
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1400 psych level would signal the break below it is failing
Failure to hold the 1.1370 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
A recovery into the 1.1455 range floor or the 1.1433 midpoint of the recent leg fib would test the breakdown
Only a close above the 1.1496 prior high and the lower-high line breaks the downtrend structure
German IFO, Fed's Williams and US jobless claims on Thu 24 Sep could materially shift this read