EUR/USD slid to a 13-month low at 1.13242 mid-week before recovering, the bounce peaking at 1.14336 in yesterday's NY session as the dollar softened on falling oil and reclaimed the 1.1400 round number. Price has since faded to 1.13863, retracing roughly 40% of that impulse and slipping back below EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled toward neutral after the spike, leaving the move looking corrective rather than a trend turn.
Support: 1.13828, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.13828 swing low opens the path back toward the 1.13242 week low
Reclaim of the 1.14200 rebound cap invalidates the rejection read, exposing the 1.14336 week high
German prelim HICP Mon and Lagarde Mon 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD slid to a 13-month low at 1.1325 earlier this week then staged a corrective bounce, peaking at 1.1434 into the NY session yesterday as a softer dollar and falling oil eased sentiment. That high was rejected and price has since drifted back below EMA20 to 1.1386, sitting near the 50% retrace of the bounce with RSI back in the mid-40s. The move higher reads as corrective within a bearish weekly structure rather than a trend turn.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1434
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1373 reopens the 1.1325 week low
Close above 1.1420 would invalidate the downside read per ING/UOB
German prelim HICP Mon Jun 29 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has clawed back from Wednesday's 13-month low at 1.1325, with the recovery peaking at the 1.14336 week high before a sharp rejection dropped price back under the 1.1400 psych level. Price is now pinned to EMA(20) near 1.1387 with RSI(14) back to neutral, holding above the session low at 1.13828. The 1.1420 cap flagged by context aligns with supply on this week's bounce.
Support: 1.13828, 1.13525, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 cap neutralizes the near-term downside read, opening room toward the 1.14336 week high
Loss of 1.13828 session low and 1.13525 swing reopens the 1.1325 week low
Eurozone HICP and Lagarde (HIGH) Mon could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Recovery within broader downtrend · RSI 49 · price 1.13859
Bounce off 13-month low, spike rejected.
EUR/USD clawed back from the 13-month low near 1.13242 mid-week, with a sharp spike into the NY session yesterday tagging 1.14336 before fading back under 1.1400. That move was rejected at the 1.1420 cap and price has since slipped below EMA(20) while holding above EMA(50), softer Oil and a benign US PCE print underpinning the bounce. RSI(14) has cooled to neutral as the recovery leg stalls.
Support: 1.13828, 1.1375, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.14026, 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 would neutralize the downside read and open 1.14336 session high
Failure to hold the 1.13828 swing low reopens the 1.13242 weekly low
Eurozone HICP and Lagarde speech Monday could materially shift this read
Monday opened near 1.1429 and the pair slid to a 13-month low at 1.1325 by Wednesday before an NY-session recovery lifted it back above 1.1400, helped by softer oil and a modestly weaker USD after in-line PCE. The spike to 1.14336 was rejected straight back under 1.1400, and price now sits right on EMA(20) around 1.1390 with RSI cycling near 50. The 1.1400-1.1420 band remains the wall capping this bounce.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside read
Failure to hold 1.1375 swing low exposes the 1.1325 week low again; below there reopens 1.1280
Eurozone HICP Mon and Lagarde speech could materially shift this read
EUR/USD rebounded off the 1.1325 week low and spiked to 1.1434 during Friday's NY session after benign US PCE softened the dollar, before fading back toward the EMA20 near 1.1390. Resistance at 1.1420 has capped follow-through twice; the broader H1 structure remains a downtrend with this recovery holding above the week's 1.1325 base. RSI has cooled back near the midline after the rally.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 neutralises the downside read and opens 1.1500
Loss of 1.1325 week low reopens 1.1280
Eurozone HICP and Lagarde speech Mon could materially shift this read
EUR carved a base around 1.1325–1.1340 through midweek then snapped back above 1.1400 into the NY session, helped by a softer USD as in-line PCE trimmed Fed-hike odds and oil slid. Price has reclaimed EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling back near 60, recovering roughly 60% of the week's drop from 1.1434. The 1.1420 pivot caps the recovery — the level whose break invalidates the near-term downside read.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1340, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the broader downside scenario
Failure to hold 1.1390 EMA20 reopens the 1.1340 higher-lows base
Loss of 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 1.1280
ECB Lagarde (Jun 29) and German HICP are the next directional catalysts
Higher lows off 13-month base, capped near 1.1434.
EUR has clawed back from the 1.1325 13-month low through the week, building higher lows and breaking back above 1.1400 as the dollar softened on in-line PCE and a slide in oil. The push into 1.14336 was rejected in the NY session and price has eased back to 1.1393–1.1400, holding above EMA20. The 1.1420 break level is the immediate cap; broader structure remains a recovery inside a larger downtrend.
Support: 1.13935, 1.1377, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
A close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside scenario per the digest
Failure to hold 1.1393 ny low reopens the path toward 1.1377
Lagarde (Jun 29) and German HICP are the next directional catalysts and could reset this read
Recovery off this-week's 13-month low, higher lows building.
EUR/USD bottomed near 1.1325 mid-week and rallied through the NY session yesterday and today, reclaiming 1.1400 as the USD softened post-PCE and oil fell — a positioning-driven bounce off oversold lows rather than a trend turn. Price now sits back above EMA20/50 with RSI cycling near 56 after pulling back from the 1.14336 session high. The 1.1325 low remains the structural pivot against the broader downtrend.
Support: 1.13935, 1.1385, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside scenario per the digest
Failure to hold 1.13935/EMA20 reopens the path back toward the 1.1325 low
ECB Lagarde (Jun 29) and German HICP could materially shift this read
EUR carved a double bottom near 1.1325 mid-week and recovered above 1.1400 as a softer USD and falling oil triggered a positioning bounce off 13-month lows. The NY session push to 1.14336 was rejected sharply, with price snapping back to 1.1393 and now sitting just above EMA(20). The broader move is corrective; 1.1420 pivot capped the latest attempt.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 pivot invalidates the near-term downside read
Loss of EMA(20)/1.1380 reopens the 1.1325 week low
German HICP (Jun 29) and Lagarde (Jun 29) are the next directional catalysts
Recovery off 13-month low, rejected near week high.
EUR/USD spiked to 1.1434 during the NY session before sellers slammed it back to 1.1393, leaving a sharp rejection just above the 1.1420 invalidation line cited in this week's bear setup. Price has carved a recovery off Tuesday's 13-month low at 1.1325 — an oversold-relief bounce rather than a turn — and now hovers just above the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1385. RSI(14) sits mid-range around 53 after the failed push higher.
Support: 1.1385, 1.1350, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1420 invalidates the week's downside read and opens the 1.1434 week high
Loss of the 1.1385 EMA(20) re-exposes 1.1350 and the 1.1325 13-month low
Lagarde (Mon 17:30 UTC) and German HICP (Mon) could materially shift this read
EURUSD rebounded off the 1.1324 week low and accelerated through the NY session, pushing above the 1.1398 breakout and reclaiming both EMA(20) and EMA(50) as the USD eased back after an in-line PCE print. RSI(14) is elevated near 67 after cycling up from oversold, and price is now testing the 1.1420 area cited this week as the bearish-setup invalidation. The session high at 1.1434 caps the move; the week open at 1.1450 sits just above.
Support: 1.1398, 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1434, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H1 close holding above 1.1420 invalidates the bearish setup cited this week
Loss of the 1.1398 breakout would reopen the 1.1324 week low
High-impact Lagarde speech Mon 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Recovery off lows, momentum building · RSI 67 · price 1.14232
Double bottom, broke above range cap.
EUR carved a double bottom near 1.1325 across two sessions and rallied through the 1.1420 bear-trigger level into the NY session, with the move accelerating as the USD eased after in-line US PCE. Price now sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) at the upper end, having stalled just under today's session high at 1.14336. The week-open level at 1.14442 caps the next leg.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.14442
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1420 reopens the 1.1325 double-bottom area
Acceptance above 1.14336 exposes the 1.14442 week open
Michigan sentiment and Fed speakers today could shift USD tone
Week's lower-low base reclaimed, breakout above 1.1420.
A four-day EUR slide into the 1.1324 week low gave way to a sharp NY-session recovery, with the pair reclaiming the 1.1420 area as the USD eased on an in-line core PCE print. Price now trades back above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pushed to the high-60s after the impulse off the lows. The 1.14336 session high caps the move so far.
Support: 1.1420, 1.13935, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.14502
What it said to watch
Holding above 1.1420 keeps the recovery intact; loss reopens the 1.1324 week low
A close above 1.14502 week high extends the recovery
Lagarde speech and German HICP (Jun 29) could materially shift this read
EURUSD reversed a four-day slide that bottomed twice near 1.1325, with the USD easing after in-line US core PCE (3.4% YoY). The recovery accelerated through the NY session, breaking above 1.1420 — the level flagged as invalidating the prior downside — and printing a session high at 1.14336. Price now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI back into the high-60s.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.14502
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1420 keeps the recovery intact; a close back below reopens the 1.1370 consol top
Acceptance above 1.14336 session high targets the 1.14502 week high
Monday's German HICP and Lagarde speech could shift this read
13:01 UTC
Recovery off week lows within a weekly downtrend · RSI 60 · price 1.13983
Higher lows since the 1.1324 base.
EUR/USD spent the week sliding to a 13-month low at 1.1324 before clawing back through the NY session as the dollar eased on in-line US PCE. Price now trades above EMA20 and EMA50 after a string of higher lows, with the recovery high at 1.1412 capping the bounce and RSI cycling in the upper half. The structure has shifted from one-way selling into a corrective recovery, but the 1.1420 cap still defines the weekly downside read.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1360, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the weekly downside read (UOB)
Failure to hold 1.1360 reopens the 1.1324 week low
US Michigan sentiment and Fed speakers today could shift USD tone
EUR/USD slid to a 13-month low at 1.1324 mid-week before rebounding through the NY session, twice basing near the same floor for a double-bottom look. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 1.1398 with RSI(14) recovering into the low-60s, the move helped by an in-line US core PCE that trimmed Fed-hike bets. Resistance at 1.1412 capped the latest push, with 1.1420 the upside pivot flagged in the macro read.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1350, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the bearish swing structure
Failure to hold the 1.1378 EMA(20) exposes 1.1350 and the 1.1324 week low
ECB Lagarde Mon 17:30 UTC could reprice the EUR leg
EUR/USD has recovered off Wednesday's 1.1324 week low, reclaiming EMA20 and EMA50 with a strong push into the NY session yesterday as the dollar eased on an in-line core PCE print. RSI(14) has lifted into the low-60s and price sits just under the day high at 1.1412. The 1.1420 area, the week's bearish invalidation level, caps the recovery for now.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1350, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1420, 1.1448
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the weekly downside read, opening 1.1448 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.1380 (EMA20) reopens the 1.1350 base and 1.1324 week low
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD opened the week near 1.1462 and slid four sessions to a 13-month low at 1.1325 before basing and turning higher; the bounce gathered pace into NY yesterday as the dollar eased even after in-line US core PCE. Price has cleared the EMA20 and is pressing the 1.1412 day high, sitting around the 61.8% retrace of the week's down move. RSI(14) has cycled up toward 65, the strongest reading since the slide began.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the broader downside read
Failure to hold the EMA20 near 1.1378 reopens the 1.1325 low
Michigan sentiment + Fed speakers in ~3h could shift this read
EUR/USD has rallied a second day off the 13-month low at 1.1324, carving a double bottom against the 1.1333 retest and breaking back above EMA20 and EMA50 as the dollar eased following in-line US core PCE. The push into the 1.1412 session high came with RSI cycling toward overbought, with bullish divergence at the lows preceding the move. Price now sits just below the 1.1420 cap the broader bearish view leans on.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1345, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the broader downside scenario
Failure to hold 1.1380 reopens the 1.1345 consolidation band
Lagarde speech Monday 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD ground lower through most of the week to a 1.1325 13-month low on hawkish-Fed repricing after in-line PCE, but demand stepped in twice near 1.1325-1.1333 to form a double bottom. The pair has rallied through the London session today, clearing EMA20 and EMA50, to retest the week's range top near 1.1412 with RSI elevated after the impulse.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1333, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1412, 1.1456
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1412 opens the path toward the 1.1456 week high
Failure to hold 1.1375 (ema20) re-exposes the 1.1325 13-month low
Lagarde speech Mon 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Recovering off week lows, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.13986
Higher lows off the 1.1324 base.
EUR/USD has clawed back from the week's 1.1324 13-month low, with a double-bottom base at 1.1325/1.1333 giving way to a steady NY-session push to 1.1407. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 64 as the dollar eased after the in-line US PCE print. The recovery is unfolding against a backdrop where EUR has been pinned near multi-month lows all week.
Support: 1.1372, 1.1359, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1407, 1.1429
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1407 session high opens the path toward the 1.1429 prior swing
Loss of the 1.1372 EMA(20) area would stall the recovery and put the 1.1359 swing low back in play
Lagarde speech Mon 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double-bottom base off 13-month low, higher lows building.
EUR slid from Monday's 1.1457 open to a 1.1325/1.1333 double base — the 13-month low zone — before a corrective bounce reclaimed EMA20 and EMA50 through the NY session. Price has now cleared the 1.1385 cap and is pressing the 1.1400 round number with RSI rising into the low-60s. The recovery follows the in-line US core PCE that trimmed Fed-hike bets and stalled the dollar rally.
Support: 1.1385, 1.1333, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1407, 1.1457
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1400 opens the path back toward the 1.1457 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.1385 risks a return to the 1.1333 bounce low
ECB's Lagarde (Mon 17:30 UTC) and German HICP (Mon) could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Recovery off the lows, capped at 1.1385 · RSI 62 · price 1.13857
Higher lows since Wednesday's base, testing range top.
EUR/USD has clawed back through the week off Wednesday's 13-month base near 1.1325, posting higher lows and holding above EMA20 (~1.1372) into NY. The recovery is now retesting the 1.1385 cap for a second time after an in-line US core PCE print stalled the dollar rally and let the pair firm out of the mid-1.1300s. RSI(14) has cycled up toward the low-60s, confirming the near-term bounce while the broader week remains a downtrend.
Support: 1.1372, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1388 cap opens the path toward the 1.1400 pivot
Loss of EMA20 near 1.1372 would re-expose the 1.1325 week low
US Michigan inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off the lows · RSI 61 · price 1.13857
Four-day slide into 1.1324, now recovering.
EURUSD opened the week near 1.1457 and slid four straight sessions to a 13-month low at 1.1324 before short-covering lifted price back toward 1.1386 as USD eased post-PCE. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering from oversold and the late slide showing a higher RSI low against the price low. The 1.1385 consolidation cap is now in focus after capping the bounce.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1340, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1440, 1.1457
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1385 opens the path toward 1.1440
Loss of 1.1373 ema20 puts 1.1324 13-mo low back in play
ECB Nagel (08:30 UTC) and US Michigan/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 54 · price 1.13737
13-month low holding, two-way consolidation.
EUR slid for four straight sessions from Monday's 1.1445 open to a 13-month low near 1.1324, then bounced through the NY session yesterday toward 1.1388 as the dollar eased after in-line US PCE. Price is now consolidating around 1.1374, holding above the rising EMA20 with RSI(14) recovering back through 54. The 1.1324 base has been tested twice and held, while 1.1388-1.1400 caps the rebound.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1324 opens downside extension toward 1.1280
Rebound off week low, consolidating under prior high.
EUR/USD slid from Monday's 1.1446 open into the 1.1324 13-month low midweek, then stabilised and recovered back above EMA(20) through yesterday's NY session as the dollar eased after in-line US PCE. The bounce reads as corrective, with RSI cycling back to the mid-50s and price now consolidating 1.1354–1.1388. The prior high at 1.1388 capped the NY push and remains the area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 1.1354, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.13877, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 1.1388 / 1.1400 would signal a base after the week's decline
Failure to hold 1.1354 reopens the 1.1324 week low
EZ HICP Mon 07:00 GMT could materially shift this read
The dominant move this week was a steady slide from 1.1460 toward the 1.1324 13-month low, in line with the hawkish-Fed/soft-EZ-sentiment narrative. Price has since stabilised and is grinding higher lows off that base, holding above EMA(20) into the NY session with RSI(14) recovering through 60. The 1.1330–1.1388 consolidation band remains intact; 1.1388 has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1339, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.1388 opens the path back toward the 1.1400 round number
Loss of the higher-lows structure and a close below 1.1324 reopens the downtrend toward 1.1280
EZ HICP Mon 07:00 GMT could materially shift this read
UoM Michigan inflation expectations 14:00 today could move the USD leg
A four-day slide carried EUR/USD to a 13-month low near 1.1325 mid-week before a corrective bounce, driven by USD profit-taking after firm-but-in-line US PCE rather than EUR strength. Price has reclaimed the EMA20 and stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline around 1.1377, with the bounce stalling under the 1.1384 range top. Higher lows since the base at 1.1325 keep the recovery intact for now.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1333, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Close above 1.1384 range top opens path to 1.1400
Failure to hold 1.1370 ema20 reasserts the downtrend
Close below 1.1325 13-mo low confirms a fresh lower-low
Michigan inflation expectations 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers could shift this read
Bounce off 13-month low, higher lows since the bottom.
Price rebounded off Wednesday's 13-month low near 1.1325 and has carved higher lows since, the move reading as USD-led profit-taking after firm-but-in-line US PCE rather than fresh EUR strength. H1 is holding above EMA(20) with RSI cycling back into the mid-50s, but the 1.1387 bounce high has yet to give way. The broader week remains a downtrend; this is a corrective leg within it.
Support: 1.1360, 1.13329, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.13877, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1387 opens the path toward the 1.1400 round level
Loss of 1.1325 confirms downtrend continuation
US Michigan inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and ECB speakers later today could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off lows · RSI 55 · price 1.1370
Lower lows into 13-mo low, now consolidating.
EURUSD slid to a 13-month low at 1.1324 on Wednesday before demand stepped in twice at that level, lifting the pair into a 1.1355–1.1388 band. The recovery has held above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling back to the mid-50s as the dollar eased after in-line US PCE. The 1.1388 range top has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.1355, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1388 opens the path to 1.1400
Failure to hold 1.1355 reopens the 1.1324 13mo low
ECB Nagel/Vujčić and US UoM data today could shift this read
Lower highs into a base, now ranging 1.1330-1.1385.
EUR/USD ground to a 13-month low at 1.1324 through the week before buyers stepped in, lifting the pair off the base as the USD eased despite in-line US PCE. Price has since reclaimed EMA20 and EMA50 and is consolidating in a 1.1354-1.1385 band, with RSI(14) recovering back above 50. The week's structure stays defined by lower highs, but the bounce has flattened near-term momentum.
Support: 1.1354, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1385 range top opens the path to 1.1400
Failure to hold 1.1354 reopens the 1.1324 13-mo low
UoM sentiment/inflation expectations and Fed speakers at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD slid four straight days into a 13-month low at 1.1324 on broad USD strength after the hawkish Fed reprice, then mounted a corrective bounce that stalled below the 1.1370 cap and the 1.1384 high. In-line US Core PCE (3.4%) trimmed September hike bets and eased the dollar, but the recovery faded back under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-40s. Price now drifts near 1.1359, holding the 1.1353 swing low.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1384
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1384 invalidates the capped read
Loss of 1.1353 reopens the 1.1325 13-month low
Michigan sentiment + Fedspeak (Williams/Kashkari) today could shift this read
The week was driven by USD strength on the hawkish Fed reprice, dragging EUR/USD four sessions lower to a 13-month low at 1.1324 before an in-line US PCE print trimmed September hike bets and sparked a corrective bounce to 1.1388. That recovery has been capped below 1.1370 and price has since faded back to 1.1359, sitting under EMA20 with RSI cycling mid-range around 45. The bounce looks corrective against the dominant down move.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1325 confirms bearish continuation toward 1.1280
Reclaim and hold above 1.1370 opens the path to 1.1400
ECB speakers Fri-Sat and next-week Eurozone CPI could shift this read
EURUSD sold off for four days into a fresh 13-month low at 1.1324 before buyers stepped in, with the rebound peaking at 1.1388 in the prior NY session as the USD eased after in-line US PCE. Price has since retraced roughly 50% of that bounce and is hovering just below EMA(20) near 1.1356, with RSI back at neutral. The 1.1350 shelf is the immediate area to watch; demand defended it into the 1.1324 low.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1350 reopens the path toward the 1.1325 13-mo low
Reclaim of 1.1388 extends the corrective squeeze toward 1.1411
ECB's Nagel (08:30 UTC) could shift the EUR read intraday
A four-day EUR sell-off carved fresh 13-month lows near 1.1324 before a NY-session bounce yesterday lifted price to 1.1384 as the USD eased on in-line US PCE. Since then EUR/USD has stalled and slipped back below EMA(20), drifting into a 1.1356-1.1372 consolidation in Asia hours with RSI(14) hovering mid-range. The week-high at 1.1384 capped the recovery while the 1.1324 low remains the dominant downside reference.
Support: 1.1350, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1372, 1.1384
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1350 reopens the 1.1324 week low
Close above 1.1384 week high extends the squeeze toward 1.1411
ECB's Nagel speech (08:30 UTC) could shift the EUR read
Consolidation above 13-month low after week sell-off.
EUR/USD sold off through the week to a 13-month low near 1.1324 on the hawkish-Fed USD theme, then recovered to 1.1384 after in-line US core PCE eased the dollar. Price has since coiled in a tight 1.1360-1.1374 band, sitting right on the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to neutral around the 50 line. The bounce off 1.1324 is holding but rallies have stalled below 1.1384.
Support: 1.13599, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1384 opens the path back to 1.1411 resistance
Loss of 1.1360 day low re-exposes the 1.1324 13-month low
US Michigan sentiment and Fed speakers (Williams/Kashkari) later today could shift this read
EUR/USD sold off across the week to a 13-month low near 1.1324 on the hawkish-Fed USD theme, then recovered through the NY session yesterday after US core PCE landed in line. Price has since stalled, coiling around EMA(20) and capped below the 1.1370 area, with RSI(14) flat near 52 after working off oversold. The 1.13877 NY swing high marks the top of the corrective bounce.
Support: 1.1344, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.13877, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1370 then 1.13877 opens a squeeze toward 1.1411
Failure to hold 1.1344 reopens the 1.13242 week low
US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC and ECB speakers could shift this read
Lower highs into week, bounce off 13mo low stalling.
EUR/USD slid to a 13-month low near 1.1325 mid-week before a sharp recovery into 1.1388 as the dollar eased after in-line US core PCE (3.4% YoY). That bounce has since faded, with the 1.1374 cap rejecting the latest attempt and price slipping back below EMA(20) to 1.1362; RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range. The dominant weekly read remains lower highs into the recovery.
Support: 1.1357, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1388
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1374 and 1.1388 needed to extend the corrective bounce
Loss of 1.1357 swing low re-exposes the 1.1325 13mo low
H1 close below 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.1280
ECB speakers (Nagel, Vujčić) and Mon German HICP could shift this read
A four-day slide bottomed at the 13-month low near 1.1325 on Wednesday, with price recovering into Thursday's NY session after an in-line US core PCE print eased the dollar. The bounce stalled at 1.1388 and has since drifted back to 1.1362, slipping under the EMA20 cap around 1.1366. Holding the swing low at 1.1343 keeps the corrective recovery intact; below it the broader downtrend resumes.
Support: 1.1343, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1366, 1.1388, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1388 extends the recovery toward 1.1411
Loss of 1.1343 reopens the 1.1325 13-month low
UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could reprice the dollar and shift this read
EUR/USD trended lower all week off Monday's 1.1473 high, bottoming at the 13-month low of 1.1324 before rebounding through the NY session yesterday after in-line US core PCE eased the dollar. Price now consolidates near 1.1369, holding just above EMA(20) with the 1.1384 week-high band capping the recovery. RSI(14) has lifted off the lows as a double bottom forms above 1.1324.
Support: 1.1366, 1.13373, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1400, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1384 week high opens the path toward the 1.1411 upper band
Loss of the 1.1324 13mo low confirms bearish continuation toward 1.1280
ECB speakers Fri (Nagel/Schnabel) could materially shift this read
Lower highs into low, now consolidating off the base.
EUR/USD spent four sessions grinding lower into Wednesday's 13-mo low at 1.1325 before short-covering lifted it back toward the 1.1384 week high after in-line US core PCE eased the dollar. Price is now consolidating around 1.1369, holding above EMA20 with higher lows building off the base. The recovery faded ahead of the 1.1411 upper band, and the 1.1350 swing low is the first floor on any pullback.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1384 opens the path to the 1.1411 upper band
Loss of 1.1350 swing low re-exposes the 1.1325 13-mo low
Daily close below 1.1325 would confirm bearish continuation toward 1.1280
ECB speakers (Nagel, Schnabel) Fri could shift the EUR-rate read