11:56 UTC
Downtrend since Jan 2026 high, below EMA50 · RSI 40 · price 1.12167
Lower highs from 1.2083; Jun–Sep 2026 range broken lower.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 spike to 1.2083. Successive lower highs at 1.1849 and 1.1711 lead into a late-September break below the 1.1324–1.1353 range floor, and price now sits below a rolling-over W1 EMA50 near 1.1520. EUR was October's weakest G10 currency on an energy and French fiscal risk premium, leaving price compressed between the 1.1113 swing low and a recent cap at 1.1250–1.1270, with the 2025 low at 1.1065 the next multi-quarter reference beneath. RSI near 40 is mid-range and offers no extreme signal at this timeframe.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1065, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1410, 1.1520
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 1.1270 recent cap would mark the first higher high since the September breakdown
- Failure to hold the 1.1113 swing low exposes the 2025 low at 1.1065 and the 1.1000 round number
- Recovery through the March low at 1.1410 and the 38.2% fib near 1.1483 would challenge the downtrend read; the EMA50 at 1.1520 is the macro filter
- FOMC Wed and ECB Thu this week could materially shift this read, with crowded EUR net shorts adding squeeze risk