EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 26 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into Monday close · RSI 33 · price 1.11741
Wed–Fri 1.1184–1.1256 range broken lower; Monday printing lower highs.
Monday's gap-up weekly open at 1.1220 was sold from the Asia session. The Ifo-beat bounce in London stalled at 1.1216, and pre-FOMC USD buying into the NY open took price through the 1.1184 friday low, ending the Wed–Fri range. The 1.1195 bounce high stalled near the 38.2–50% retracement of Monday's drop, and price is now pinned at the 1.1172 monday low under EMA(20) near 1.1188. RSI(14) is near 33, and it is printing a higher reading on this fractional new low than at the 16:00 broker-time low.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1184 friday low and the 1.1195 bounce high would mark the range break as a false break
Rebounds stalling at the 38.2–50% fib of Monday's drop (1.1193–1.1199) or the monday lower highs trendline keep the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.1172 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
A recovery through the 1.1220 weekly open would erase Monday's entire decline
Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.1256 peak. The Monday drop ran from the London open into NY and cut through the Friday low at 1.1184, as the USD extended its pre-Fed short-covering and DXY topped 102.00. Price is pinned at the 1.1173 week low, below EMA(20) near 1.1188 and EMA(50) near 1.1200, and the NY bounce stalled at a lower high of 1.1195, while RSI(14) near 41 sits above its 36 reading at the first test of the low, a mild bullish divergence on an equal low.
Support: 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the friday low at 1.1184 would turn Monday's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1173 week low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.1195 lower high and the 1.1220 weekly open would break the lower highs trendline and retrace most of the Monday drop
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence (Tue 12:30–14:00 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed
Lower highs from Thursday's 1.1256 peak; Friday's low broken.
Monday's weekly open gapped up to 1.1220 on France ratings relief and the Ifo beat, but that faded steadily through London and into the NY open as USD short-covering ahead of the Fed took DXY above 102.00. The sell-off cut through Friday's 1.1184 low, which had defined the bottom of the Thursday–Friday range, and extended the lower-low sequence to a Monday low of 1.1173. Rallies keep stalling beneath the descending lower-highs line from Thursday's 1.1256 peak, most recently at the 1.1195 lower high, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1173, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.1195, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1184 friday low would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1173 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 round number flagged in the digest
A move through the 1.1195 lower high and the descending trendline would be the first break in this week's lower-highs structure; the weekly open at 1.1220 sits near the 61.8% retracement
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Lagarde's speech (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.1256 peak; Friday low broken.
Monday gapped up to a 1.1220 weekly open on the France ratings relief and an Ifo beat. The gain faded from London open as the USD firmed and DXY pushed toward 102.00, with selling breaking the 1.1184 friday low and the 1.1183–1.1226 band to a 1.1173 week low into the NY open. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of Monday's leg near 1.1194, back below EMA(20). RSI(14) at 34 shows momentum stretched but not yet at an extreme, and the lower-highs line from Thursday's peak caps the structure.
Support: 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.11935, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1184 friday low would turn the range break into a false break
Recapture of the 38.2% fib at 1.1194 and EMA(20) would ease the downtrend read; the weekly open at 1.1220 and the lower-highs line sit above
Failure to hold the 1.1173 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 area flagged in the macro read
Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC, then Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since last Thursday's 1.1256 peak; Friday range broken.
Monday's gap-up to the 1.1220 weekly open on the Moody's/Ifo relief was faded through London and into the NY session as the USD firmed. That move broke Friday's 1.1184 low and set a 1.1173 week low, extending the lower-high sequence from 1.1256 through the 1.1231 lower high. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1195 bounce high, near the 38.2–50% fib of Monday's drop and just above EMA(20) around 1.1194, with RSI(14) back near 33.
Support: 1.11732
Resistance: 1.1195, 1.12198, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1173 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 band flagged in the digest
H1 close above the 1.1195 bounce high and EMA(20) would mark the first reclaim since Monday's London session
Recovery through the 1.1220 weekly open and the 1.1231 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline read
Tue ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and Lagarde speech (17:00 UTC) could shift the read on December hike pricing
Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC decision is the main USD-side event risk this week
Lower highs since Thursday; Monday made a fresh lower low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 1.1256 peak. On Monday price slipped from the 1.1226 week high in the Asia session. The brief Ifo-driven lift faded during London, and the drop extended at the NY open through Friday's low to a 1.1173 week low as the USD rebuilt ahead of the Fed. The late-NY rebound has stalled near the 38.2% retracement of Monday's drop, just under EMA(20) at 1.1196, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.11844, 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11957, 1.12005, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.1200 friday close (50% retracement) would challenge the lower-high sequence
A break of the lower-highs trendline from 1.1256 would neutralise the downtrend read; the 1.1226 week high is the next reference above
Failure to hold the 1.1184 friday low exposes the 1.1173 week low again
Durable goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) on Tuesday, then the FOMC on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1256; last week's range floor broken, retest from below.
Monday's Moody's/Ifo bounce stalled at 1.1226, just above the 1.1220 weekly open, and set another lower high below Thursday's 1.1256 peak. From London open the pair faded as USD rebuilt into the Fed, taking out the 1.1184 Friday low and printing a 1.1173 Monday low at the London-NY transition. Through NY hours price has been capped three times near 1.1186, back under the broken Friday low, with price below EMA20 (1.1196) and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1196, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1185 Friday low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1173 Monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 floor in the digest
A reclaim of EMA20 at 1.1196 and the weekly open at 1.1220 would break the lower-highs line
ECB Bank Lending Survey Tue 09:00 UTC and Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC could shift EUR hike pricing and this read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC decision are the next USD catalysts
Lower highs from Thursday's 1.1256 top; Thu/Fri lows broken in NY.
The week opened with a gap up to 1.1220 on the Moody's France hold and an Ifo beat. That level capped through Asia, and the relief faded steadily from London open as USD firmed ahead of the Fed. Price then broke Friday's low at 1.1184 and Thursday's 1.1188 into the NY open, printing a 1.1173 Monday low, a fresh window low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1196 with RSI(14) around 33. The lower-high line from Thursday's 1.1256 top through Monday's 1.1226 high defines the sequence.
Support: 1.11732, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.11964, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1184 friday low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1173 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
Recovery through EMA(20) at 1.1196 and the 50% fib of Monday's fade (~1.1200) would neutralise the downtrend read; the weekly open at 1.1220 and the lower-high line sit above
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's Fed
Lower highs from Thursday's 1.1256 peak; Thu–Fri floor broken in early NY.
Monday's London session reversed the gap up from the 1.1220 weekly open, and the first hour of NY extended the slide through the 1.1184–1.1188 broken floor that had held Thursday and Friday, printing a 1.1173 monday low as USD firmed ahead of Wednesday's Fed. Lower highs run from Thursday's 1.1256 peak through Monday's Asia-session 1.1226. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.1201 with RSI(14) around 31, and the bounce off the low is stalling just under the broken floor.
Support: 1.11732
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.12005, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1184–1.1188 broken floor would turn Monday's range break into a false break
Hold below the 1.1173 monday low extends the lower-low sequence; digest flags 1.1170 as the next reference
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1201 and the 1.1220 weekly open (≈61.8% of the Thu–Mon decline) would challenge the lower-highs trendline
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then the Fed Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 1.1256 peak; range floor broken.
Monday gapped up to a 1.1220 weekly open, but the weekly high at 1.1226 capped price at the same level as Friday's high. Supply then pushed price lower from London through the London-NY transition, breaking the friday low at 1.1184 and the cited 1.1180–1.1185 support to print a 1.1173 monday low, as USD firmed on short-trimming ahead of FOMC and IFO-driven EUR gains faded. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.1200 and EMA(50), extending the lower-highs sequence from Thursday's 1.1256 peak, with RSI(14) in the low 30s.
Support: 1.1173
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1200, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the friday low at 1.1184 would turn the break into a false break and put price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.1173 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 area flagged in the macro digest
A recovery into 1.1200, where the ema20 meets the 50% fib of Monday's drop, is the first test of the downtrend read
A close above the lower-highs line near 1.1223 and the weekly high at 1.1226 would break the sequence of lower highs
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods, Tue 17:00 UTC Lagarde and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC could materially shift this read
Thursday's sell-off ran from 1.1256 to 1.1188 through the London-to-NY transition, and Friday's London session extended it to the 1.1184 week low. Monday's early lift on the IFO beat and the Moody's France reprieve stalled at 1.1226, the Monday high, during the Asia session, just under the 61.8% retracement. From London open, price slid back through the weekly open at 1.1220 and the EMA(20) as the dollar firmed, with RSI(14) near 32. Price now sits at 1.1191, a few pips above the session low and the week low, with the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 1.1187, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.12198, 1.12263
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1184 week low confirms a lower low and brings the 1.1180 support zone into play
Recovery above the weekly open at 1.1220 and the Monday high at 1.1226 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 1.1205 keeps pullbacks capped below the Thursday sell-off midpoint
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC), US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the main USD-side risk to the structure
Monday's Asia gap up to the 1.1226 monday high on the Moody's France relief and the IFO beat was fully unwound as the dollar firmed into the FOMC. London drove the slide back through the 1.1201 friday close and below EMA(20) near 1.1206 and EMA(50) near 1.1210. Highs have stepped lower from Wednesday's 1.1256 Asia peak to 1.1231 and then 1.1226, the last stalling just under the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline. Price now sits on the 1.1188 range base that held on Wednesday and Friday, with RSI(14) near 36 and the 1.1184 week low just beneath.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1184, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1206, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1184 week low breaks the range base and exposes the 1.1180 round number
Recovery above the 1.1201 friday close and EMA(20) would ease the gap-fill rejection; the 1.1226 monday high and lower-highs trendline sit above
US durable goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and Wednesday's FOMC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside 1.1184–1.1260 range; Monday gap fading.
EURUSD has printed lower highs all week: 1.1260 in Tuesday's NY session, 1.1256 in Thursday's Asia session, and the Monday high at 1.1226. Lows at 1.1188 Thursday and the 1.1184 week low on Friday's flash PMI miss have held. Monday's gap up on the Moody's France reprieve and the IFO beat stalled between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the Thursday drop fib, then faded through the London open back toward Friday's close near 1.1200. Price now sits under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) slipping below 50.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.12263, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.1210 and the Monday high at 1.1226 would neutralise the gap-fade read
Failure to hold Friday's close at 1.1200 exposes the week low at 1.1184; a break there turns the lower-high sequence into lower lows
A break of the lower highs trendline near 1.1225, followed by a move through the 1.1256 lower high, would invalidate the range-down read
US durables (Tue 12:30 UTC), Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and the Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Thursday's ECB
Lower highs since Tuesday; Monday gap-up faded back toward Friday's close.
Lower highs have stacked up since Tuesday's NY-session week high at 1.1260. London drove both Thursday's slide and Friday's flush to the 1.1185 week low on the PMI misses. Monday's Moody's-driven gap up stalled at 1.1226 (monday high), just under the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday-Friday drop, then faded through London despite the IFO beat, leaving price under the ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.1210 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1226, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1226 monday high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1200 gap fill (Friday close) exposes the 1.1185 week low
Rejection at the ema20 near 1.1210 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
ECB Bank Lending Survey (Tue 09:00 UTC), Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1260; base 1.1184–1.1188; Monday gap fading.
Highs have stepped down from Tuesday's 1.1260 spike to Thursday's 1.1256 lower high. The Thursday–Friday drop then found demand at 1.1188 and the 1.1184 week low after Friday's soft eurozone PMIs. Monday's weekly open gapped up to 1.1220 on softer US yields, but the Asia high at 1.1226 stalled near the 61.8% retrace of that drop. The London open has since sold price back to 1.1203, below the ema20 at 1.1211 and nearly filling the gap to the 1.1200 Friday close. RSI(14) is flat near 49, with no divergence.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1226, 1.1256
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) lands in the next bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1200 fri close completes the gap fill and puts the 1.1184 week low back in focus
Failure to hold 1.1184 confirms a lower-low below the Thursday–Friday base
Recovery above the 1.1226 asia high and the lower highs line challenges the 1.1256 lower high
Fed decision Wed and ECB Thu are the week's larger structural risks
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1256 to 1.1184; gap-up holding just above the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster.
The Thursday–Friday drop ran from the 1.1256 lower high to the 1.1184 week low. Friday's flash PMI misses drove the final leg during the London session. Monday opened with a weekend-relief gap above the 1.1200 Friday close on the softer USD, but the Asian range topped at the 1.1226 asia high near the 61.8% retracement, and price has since slipped back onto the converged ema20 and EMA(50) around 1.1212 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1212, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) falls in the next bars and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.1226 asia high and the 1.1231 thu high opens the path toward the 1.1256 lower high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1212 and a gap fill to the 1.1200 fri close would put the 1.1184 week low back in focus
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB statement Thu 13:15 UTC are the week's main risks to this structure
Lower highs and lower lows Wed–Fri; Monday gap retracing half the drop.
Wednesday to Friday printed lower highs and lower lows. The heaviest selling came across Thursday's London-to-NY session, and the week low of 1.1184 was set at Friday's London open on the flash PMI misses. Monday's Asia session opened with a ~19-pip gap above the Friday close as USD softened, and price has retraced to the 50% fib of the Thursday–Friday drop, back above the EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 57. The bounce has stalled at the 1.1226 Monday high, just under Thursday's 1.1231 lower high.
Support: 1.1211, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1231 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.1256 Thu high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1211 and a close below the 1.1200 Friday close fills the gap and reopens the 1.1184 week low
German IFO 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) and ECB's Elderson during the London session could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk for the week's range
04:01 UTC
Downtrend from Thursday, Monday gap testing the lower-highs line · RSI 57 · price 1.12209
Lower highs from 1.1256, gap-up reclaim to weekly open at 50% retrace.
Last week's lower-highs sequence ran from Tuesday's 1.1260 spike and Thursday's 1.1256 prior high. The Thursday London sell-off and Friday's broad EZ PMI miss carried EUR to the 1.1184 prior wk low, and Friday NY closed near 1.1200. Monday opened with a ~19-pip gap to the 1.1220 weekly open. Price dipped to the 1.1202 asian low, then recovered to the weekly open, which sits on the 50% retrace of the Thursday–Friday drop. RSI(14) is near 57 and price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), while the Asian session high at 1.1226 caps price just under Thursday's 1.1231 lower high and the 61.8% level.
Support: 1.12198, 1.1202, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12263, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1231 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.1256 prior high
Failure to hold the weekly open and the 1.1202 asian low fills the gap and puts the 1.1184 prior wk low back in play
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8): a miss echoes Friday's PMI weakness and pressures the 1.1200 handle
ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and Lagarde on Tuesday: any December-hike signal against crowded EUR shorts could extend the gap-up
02:01 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, Monday gap bounce testing 50% fib · RSI 61 · price 1.12172
Lower highs from 1.1256, week low 1.1184, gap-up retracement.
EUR/USD has carved lower highs since Thursday's 1.1256 high. The London-to-NY sell-off that day and Friday's London-session flash PMI misses printed the week low at 1.1184. Monday's Asia session gapped up from Friday's 1.1200 close to retest the 50% fib of the Thu-Fri decline near 1.1222, lifting price back above EMA(20) and fractionally above EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61; EMA(20) still sits below EMA(50), so the bounce reads as a retracement inside the week's downtrend.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1200, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1231 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the Thursday high at 1.1256
Rejection at the 50% fib and a slip back below the ema20 and 1.1200 round number would refill the Monday gap and expose the week low at 1.1184
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) is the first test of the Asia bounce
Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read