21:02 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, momentum stalling near 1.1200 · RSI 48 · price 1.12005
Lower highs from Thursday's 1.1256 peak; lows basing at 1.1184-1.1188.
A London-led sell-off on Thursday extended into NY to 1.1188. The flash PMI misses at Friday's London open then drove the leg from Thursday's 1.1256 high to the 1.1184 week low, forming a thu-fri base with the NY lows at 1.1187-1.1189. The rebound stalled at the fib 38.2% retracement near 1.1211. Price closed the week pinned at the 1.1200 round number, where EMA(20) and the lower-highs line converge, with EMA(50) still overhead and RSI(14) recovering to 48 from the low 30s.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
- H1 close above the fib 38.2% at 1.1211 and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence, putting the Friday high at 1.1226 in play
- Failure to hold the thu-fri base at 1.1188 and the 1.1184 week low confirms a lower-low, opening the path toward 1.1120
- German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC, Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read