Early Asia range 1.1202–1.1222 inside Friday's range.
Week opened with a ~19-pip gap up from Friday's 1.1200 close, after the PMI-miss slide to 1.1184 at Friday's London open. Early Asia session has printed lower highs from the 1.1222 open high and unwound most of the gap, holding a session low at 1.1202 that coincides with the 61.8% retracement and sits just above Friday's close. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1202, 1.12005, 1.1189
Resistance: 1.12113, 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 (fri close) completes the gap fill and exposes the fri ny low at 1.1189
Close above the 1.1211 lower high reopens the 1.1222 open high, with the 1.1226 fri high above
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) at London open could materially shift this read
Weekly open gap up being filled; lower-high/lower-low sequence since Asia open.
The weekly open gapped about 19 pips higher to the 1.1222 open high but has faded through early Asia in a string of lower highs, the latest at 1.1210. Price is sitting on EMA20 and edging toward the Friday close at 1.12005 to complete the gap fill. Friday's PMI-miss drop set the 1.1184 Friday low and the 1.1189 Friday NY low below.
Support: 1.12005, 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12099, 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fri close at 1.1200 completes the gap fill and exposes the fri ny low at 1.1189, then the friday low at 1.1184
Close above the lower-highs line near 1.1210 breaks the fade sequence; reclaiming the open high at 1.1222 puts Friday's prior high at 1.1226 back in view
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) during London could reset the session range
Weekend gap above Friday close, sub-range forming 1.1206–1.1222.
EURUSD opened the Asia session about 19 pips above the Friday close at 1.1200, after Friday's PMI-miss slide to the 1.1184 Friday low. The 1.1222 gap high was rejected and the open is printing lower highs, now pinned between the 1.1206 session low and the 1.1211 Friday NY high. RSI(14) is near 64, still lifted by the gap bar.
Support: 1.12061, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12113, 1.12224
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1206 session low opens a fill of the gap toward the 1.1200 Friday close
Acceptance back above the 1.1211 Friday NY high and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1222 gap high back in play
A full gap fill and loss of 1.1200 re-exposes the 1.1184 Friday low
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8), roughly 10h out, is the next scheduled EUR risk after the PMI misses
23:01 UTC
Friday downtrend, Sunday gap higher now fading · RSI 61 · price 1.12089
Weekend gap above Friday close, lower highs since the open.
Friday's London sell-off on the broad EZ PMI misses ran from the 1.1226 prior high to a 1.1184 Friday low. NY then ranged and closed near 1.1200. Sunday's thin Asia open gapped about 20 pips higher to a 1.1222 Sunday high, but each bar since has printed a lower high. Price is drifting toward the 1.1206 Sunday low, near the 0.618 of the Friday sell-off fib.
Support: 1.12061, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1206 Sunday low exposes the 1.1200 gap fill at Friday's close.
A move back through the 1.1222 Sunday high reopens the 1.1226 prior high.
A full gap fill and acceptance below 1.1200 would put the Friday low at 1.1184 back in view.
Thin Sunday liquidity keeps ranges unreliable until the London open.
German IFO (Mon 09:00 UTC, f/c 89.8) is the first scheduled risk for this read.
22:46 UTC
Flat, gap-up open fading · RSI 61 · price 1.12099
Sunday gap above Friday's 1.1184–1.1211 range, partial fill under way.
The weekly open gapped about 20 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close, where the post-PMI range had held between the 1.1184 swing low and 1.1211. Supply has capped the 1.1222 gap high twice in thin early Asia session trade, and price is fading toward the 1.1208 session low, near the 38.2% of the rebound fib.
Support: 1.12082, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1208 session low exposes the gap fill at 1.1200, near the 61.8% rebound fib
M15 close above the 1.1222 gap high reopens Friday's 1.1226 prior high
Break back below 1.1184 swing low returns the post-PMI downtrend read
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read at London open
22:31 UTC
Gap higher at weekly open, stalling below 1.1222 · RSI 61 · price 1.12112
Weekly open gap above Friday close; early Asia range 1.1208–1.1222.
The weekly open gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.12005 close, reclaiming the 1.1200 handle and fully retracing Friday's PMI-driven London selloff to 1.11844. Early Asia session met rejection at the 1.12224 open high. Price is holding the 1.12082 open low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Friday low to open high leg, with RSI(14) at 61 and ATR at ~6 pips on thin liquidity.
Support: 1.12082, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12082 open low exposes a gap fill toward the friday close at 1.12005
M15 close above the 1.12224 open high puts the friday high at 1.12262 back in play
German IFO at 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) is the first scheduled EUR risk; thin Asia liquidity until London open
22:16 UTC
Rebounding at the weekly open after Friday's PMI slide · RSI 68 · price 1.1220
Gap-up open holding above Friday close; Sunday open range 1.1208–1.1222.
The Sunday open gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. An early dip to the 1.1208 Sunday low left the gap unfilled, and price is back at the 1.1222 open high in thin early-Asia trade with RSI(14) near 68. Friday's slide to the 1.1184 Friday low came on the London-morning PMI misses and was retraced into the late-NY close.
Support: 1.12082, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1226 Friday high reclaims Friday's Asian range top
Failure to hold the 1.1208 Sunday low puts the 1.1200 gap fill in play
German IFO at 09:00 UTC Monday in the London session could materially shift this read
Early-Asia liquidity is thin; the open high at 1.1222 is the session marker for the Asian range
21:46 UTC
Friday downtrend, gapped higher at the weekly open · RSI 64 · price 1.12159
Weekend gap above Friday's 1.1189–1.1211 NY range, inside Friday's Asian range.
The week opened with a gap of about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close. The open high at 1.1222 was rejected, and price is holding just above the 1.1212 sunday low, near the 78.6% level of the Friday drop fib. Friday's slide to the 1.1184 friday low came on the across-the-board EZ PMI misses, and NY hours then ranged without retaking 1.1211.
Support: 1.12117, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12224, 1.12262
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1212 sunday low exposes the 1.1200 gap fill at Friday's close
M15 close above Friday's 1.1226 asian high negates the Friday downtrend read and clears the open high
Early Asia session liquidity is thin. German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could reset the session range
A move back through the gap fill brings the 1.1184 friday low back into play
21:31 UTC
Gap higher at weekly open, short-term hot · RSI 78 · price 1.12209
Weekend gap above Friday's range, testing the asian high.
Weekly open gapped about 19 pips above Friday's 1.1200 close to 1.1221. That puts price back above the 1.1200 handle and the London-NY range, erasing most of Friday's slide to the 1.1184 friday low on the PMI misses. Price is pinned at the open high under the asian high at 1.1226, near the top of the Friday drop fib, in thin early Asia session trade with RSI(14) near 78.
Support: 1.12173, 1.12005, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12213, 1.12262
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the open low at 1.1217 exposes a gap fill back to 1.1200 and a return into Friday's range
Acceptance above the asian high at 1.1226 retraces the full Friday drop
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8): another miss after the PMIs would put the friday low at 1.1184 back in focus
21:16 UTC
Sunday gap higher after Friday's PMI-led selloff · RSI 79 · price 1.1221
Gap above Friday NY high, back inside Friday Asian range.
The Sunday open gapped about 19 pips higher to 1.1220, clearing Friday's NY high at 1.1211 and the 1.1200 handle. That retraces most of Friday's French/EZ PMI-driven drop from the 1.1226 Asian high to 1.1184. RSI(14) near 79 rests on two thin opening bars, and the gap fill back to Friday's 1.1200 close is still open.
Support: 1.12173, 1.12113, 1.12005
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1217 sunday low exposes the 1.1211 ny high, then the 1.1200 gap fill
M15 close above the 1.1226 asian high moves the read toward the 1.1250 round number
Thin early Asia session liquidity means the gap level can be revisited quickly
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) could materially shift this read during London
21:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lows rising into the close · RSI 61 · price 1.12005
Post-London range 1.1184–1.1211 compressing; final bar pushed above 1.1195.
London flash PMI misses (France and German services) pushed EUR out of the Asian range and down to a 1.1184 day low. Through the NY session the pair compressed between the 1.1189 NY low and the 1.1211 NY high, with rising lows. The last bar of Friday cleared the 1.1195 range top on thin liquidity and closed at 1.1200, right on the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to day low drop.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1189, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1211, 1.1226
What it said to watch
Week open gap: holding above the 1.1195 range top keeps the late-Friday breakout intact; slipping back below it marks a false break
1.1207 asian low then 1.1211 ny high (near the 50% fib at 1.1205) are the first overhead caps; a close above 1.1211 reopens the 1.1226 asian high
Loss of the rising lows trendline and the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) and the ECB/Fed week could materially shift this read