EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 23 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into weekly close · RSI 48 · price 1.11927
Lower highs since NY spike; lows holding above day low.
EURUSD broke down from the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range on the French and EZ PMI misses in early London, setting a day low at 1.1184. The NY high at 1.1211 and the post-UoM high at 1.1207 both faded into a lower-highs sequence. Late NY has compressed into a 6-pip band between the 1.1189 NY low and the 1.1195 late cap.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.12071, 1.12113
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low
M15 close above the 1.1195 late cap and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read; the 1.1207 post-uom hi is next, then the 1.1211 ny high
Thin pre-weekend liquidity; IFO Mon 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk
20:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 44 · price 1.11927
Lower highs from 1.1207, tight range above NY low.
Soft French and German PMIs drove London below the Asian low at 1.1207. That leg printed the day low at 1.1184, and the NY high at 1.1211 then stalled at the 61.8% of the Asia high–London low drop. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1193–1.1195 range under a falling trendline, with the NY low at 1.1189 holding.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1195 range top and the falling trendline ends the late-NY compression read
Failure to hold the 1.1189 NY low exposes the 1.1184 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Round number 1.1200 is the first cap above, then the NY high at 1.1211 near the 61.8% retracement
Friday close: Monday's open and IFO (Mon 09:00 UTC) could reset this range ahead of Lagarde (Tue) and FOMC (Wed)
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into weekly close · RSI 45 · price 1.11937
Lower highs since NY spike, compressed range above NY low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the French and EZ PMI misses and set a day low at 1.1184. The NY spike to the NY high at 1.1211 after the firm US PMIs was rejected back under the Asian low. Lower highs have since squeezed price into a 1.1189–1.1195 band between the NY low and the range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and the NY high-low fib only about 20% retraced.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.12071, 1.12113
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1195 range top lifts price into the NY high-low fib, with the Asian low at 1.1207 next
Failure to hold the NY low at 1.1189 exposes the day low at 1.1184
Re-break of the NY high at 1.1211 negates the lower-high sequence
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; Monday open gap risk ahead of German IFO at 09:00 UTC
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into the weekly close · RSI 46 · price 1.11943
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight 1.1189–1.1195 drift late NY.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the broad EZ and French PMI misses, then printed a session low at 1.1184. NY rebounds after the hot US PMIs stalled at the 1.1211 NY high, keeping lower highs from the Asian high intact. Price is now pinned at 1.1189–1.1195 into the Friday close, RSI(14) flat near 46 and ATR down to roughly 3 pips.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12073, 1.12113
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1189 NY low exposes the 1.1184 session low and extends the day decline
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1211 NY high, breaks the lower-highs line
Weekend gap risk; German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR catalyst
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into the Friday close · RSI 41 · price 1.11932
Lower highs from the 1.1211 NY high, tight late-NY range above the day low.
London broke the Asian range low (1.1207) on broad EZ PMI misses, led by France at 48.4. The drop printed a 1.1184 day low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1211 NY high, just past the 61.8% of the PMI drop fib, after the US PMI beat. Price is now boxed between the 1.1189 NY low and the 1.1195 range top under the 1.1200 psych, with ATR down to ~3.6 pips as late-NY liquidity thins.
Support: 1.1189, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 psych reopens the 1.1211 ny high and negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low; a break there extends the PMI drop
A break of the 1.1195 range top without a close above 1.1200 keeps the compression read
Weekend gap risk into Mon German IFO (09:00 UTC); Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC frames next week's structure
PMI misses led by France broke the Asian range low at the 07:15 UTC release and printed the 1.1184 day low in London. NY's PMI-window spike to the 1.1211 NY high stalled at the 61.8% fib of the London drop. Price has since printed lower highs into a tight late-NY drift capped by the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) contracting under 4 pips.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12073, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number turns focus to the 1.1207 asian low, now overhead
Friday late-NY liquidity: weekend gap risk into Mon IFO (09:00 UTC) and Wed FOMC could reset the read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY drift · RSI 39 · price 1.11932
Lower highs since the NY high, compressing just above the ny low.
London broke below the Asian range on the across-the-board EZ PMI misses, printing the day low at 1.1184. The NY high at 1.1211 was rejected near the 61.8% fib retrace, and each bounce since has formed a lower high. Late NY is drifting at 1.1189–1.1195 under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12073, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.1207 asian low back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low
Weekly close, then Monday German IFO (09:00 UTC) and ECB/Fed week, could reset this structure
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.11938
Lower highs since NY spike, lows holding above day low.
Flash PMI misses broke EUR/USD below the Asian range at London open, setting the day low at 1.1184. The 13:30 UTC spike to the ny high at 1.1211 reversed after the US PMI beat. Since then a lower high chain has pressed price into a 5-pip band above the 1.1189 ny low into the late NY session. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR(14) about 4 pips, so momentum is fading into the Friday close.
Support: 1.1189, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11949, 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 day low
Close above the ny lower highs trendline and the 1.1200 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Above 1.1200, the 1.1211 ny high caps the session
Thin late-Friday liquidity; German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled EUR risk
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 42 · price 1.11943
Lower highs below 1.1200 after Asian range break.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1207 on the flash PMI misses and printed a 1.1184 london low. The pre-NY bounce stalled at the 1.1211 ny high, with rejection back under the old Asian low on the US PMI beat. Since then a lower highs sequence has pressed price into a tight 1.1189–1.1200 band in late NY, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12073, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs line and the 1.1200 round number would negate the late-NY fade
Failure to hold the 1.1189 ny low exposes the 1.1184 london low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1207 asian low and the 1.1211 ny high would put price back inside the prior range
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin; next scheduled catalyst is Mon German IFO at 09:00 UTC
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into the weekend close · RSI 38 · price 1.11913
Lower highs since NY high; holding above the London low.
London broke below the Asian range on the EZ PMI misses and set the London low at 1.11844. The NY high at 1.12113 was rejected around the US PMI and Michigan beats, and late NY has stepped down in lower highs, the latest at 1.11971, to a late NY low at 1.11891, with the 1.1200 round number capping.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11971, 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.11844 London low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number and the trendline invalidates the late-NY lower-high read
Weekend gap risk; Monday's German IFO (f/c 89.8) and Elderson could reset this structure
Asian range broken lower in London; NY making lower highs under 1.1200.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the eurozone PMI misses and printed the day low at 1.1184. The NY high at 1.1211 was rejected at the 61.8% fib after the firm US PMIs, and late NY is grinding along a lower-high line beneath the 1.1200 round number toward the NY low at 1.1189, RSI(14) ~41.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12073, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1189 NY low exposes the 1.1184 day low
Close above the lower-high line and the 1.1200 round number breaks the late-NY drift; the Asian low at 1.1207 caps above that
Weekly close imminent: Monday's Elderson (06:00 UTC) and German IFO (09:00 UTC, f/c 89.8) are the next scheduled drivers
Lower highs below 1.1200 after a London break of the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range on the flash PMI misses, setting a pmi low at 1.1184. NY's spike to the 1.1211 ny high faded near the 61.8% retrace, and late NY has printed lower highs along a falling trendline, the latest at 1.1197. Price sits at 1.1190, under the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) at 37 and short of oversold.
Support: 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11971, 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 pmi low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1197 lower high breaks the late-NY trendline and puts the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1211 ny high, back in play
Thin late-Friday trade into the weekend close; ECB's Elderson and German IFO on Monday are the next EUR catalysts
Asian range broken lower; NY lower highs pressing the ny low.
The Asian range of 1.1207–1.1226 broke at London open as the flash PMIs missed, and London printed its low at 1.1184. From the 1.1211 midday high, NY has stacked lower highs along a descending trendline. The 1.1207 post-data high came after the US PMI and Michigan beats, and price is now drifting into the ny low at 1.1191, below the 61.8% retrace of the London-to-midday leg. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is under 5 pips in thin late-Friday NY trade.
Support: 1.11905, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12005, 1.12071, 1.12113
What it said to watch
A close below the ny low at 1.1191 extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1187 swing low and the 1.1184 london low
A close above the lower high at 1.1201 breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Recovery above the post-data high at 1.1207 reopens the 1.1211 midday high
No scheduled data in the next 8h. The next catalysts are any OAT-Bund spread headlines, then Monday's Elderson and German IFO
Lower highs from 1.12113 NY high, pressing NY low.
London broke below the 1.1207 Asian range low on the EZ and French PMI misses, printing a 1.11844 day low. Late NY, price is pressing the 1.11905 NY low under a falling trendline of lower highs from the 1.12113 NY high, with the 1.1200 psych handle capping and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.11905, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.11874 swing low exposes the 1.11844 day low
Close back above the falling trendline and 1.1200 psych breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.12113 NY high above
Thin post-London liquidity into the weekend close; next event risk is Monday's Elderson and German IFO
London broke below the Asian range; NY range compressing under a lower-high chain.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the broad eurozone PMI misses and set a 1.1184 London low. NY rallies were rejected near the 61.8% fib at 1.1211, and the 14:00 UTC retest of the Asian low failed. Late NY is printing lower highs into the 1.1191 NY low, with the 1.1187 swing low just beneath.
Support: 1.11911, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12012, 1.12073, 1.12102
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 London low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1201 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1207 Asian low negates the London range break
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; Monday's German IFO at 09:00 UTC is the next EUR catalyst
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after London break · RSI 48 · price 1.1196
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs through NY, compressing above day low.
London open broke below the Asian range (1.1207–1.1226 asian high) on the across-the-board EZ flash PMI miss, printing a day low at 1.1184. NY hours stalled at the 1.1211 NY high near the 61.8% of the PMI selloff fib, then a lower high at 1.1207. Price is now pinned at the late NY low around 1.1192 into the Friday close, RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1211, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1192 late NY low exposes the 1.1187 swing low and 1.1184 day low; a break there extends the post-PMI lower-low chain
Retest of the 1.1226 asian high would negate the London range break read
Weekend gap risk: ECB's Elderson Mon 06:00 UTC and German IFO 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8)
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating after London break lower · RSI 43 · price 1.11937
Asian range broken lower at London open; NY ranging 1.1193–1.1207 under lower highs.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the eurozone PMI misses and made a day low at 1.1184, then a higher swing low at 1.1187. The NY high at 1.1211 after firm US PMIs was rejected near the 61.8% retracement of the Asia-London drop. Late NY is pressing the ny low at 1.1193 under a run of NY lower highs, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1207, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1193 ny low exposes the 1.1187 swing low and the 1.1184 day low
Reclaim of 1.1200 psych and the 1.1207 asian low breaks the NY lower highs and the range-top cap
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the weekly close; German IFO and ECB's Elderson on Monday could reset the read
16:31 UTC
Down from Asian range, compressing below 1.1200 · RSI 46 · price 1.11974
Lower highs and higher lows since London low, coiling near 1.1200.
London open broke the Asian range lower on the French and EZ PMI misses, printing a 1.1184 session low. Since then a midday low at 1.1187, a 1.1211 spike high and NY rejection at the old Asian low (1.1207) after firm US PMIs/UoM have left price coiling around the 1.1200 round number, holding just above the 1.1195 NY low late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1195, 1.1187, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1207, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1195 ny low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1187 midday low and 1.1184 session low
Close above 1.1207 asian low and the lower-highs line invalidates the compression read; 1.1211 spike high is next
Friday close into thin liquidity; weekend French spread headlines and Monday IFO could gap the open
16:01 UTC
Downtrend from London, now compressing · RSI 51 · price 1.11994
Asian low broken on PMIs; lower highs against rising lows around 1.1200.
Weak French and EZ flash PMIs broke the 1.1207 Asian low at the London open, printing a 1.1184 session low. Sellers rejected the 12:45 UTC retest of the broken asian low at the 1.1211 retest high. Firm US PMIs and UoM data have since kept NY compressed around 1.1200, with lower highs from 1.1211 converging on rising lows near 1.1195 and ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 1.11952, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows near 1.1195 reopens the 1.1187 swing low and 1.1184 session low
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1207 and the 1.1211 retest high breaks the lower highs and exposes the 1.1226 asian high
French OAT-Bund spread headlines are the unscheduled risk into a thinning post-London Friday close; German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Lower highs since 12:45 UTC; tight NY range 1.1193–1.1207 above the day low.
EUR/USD broke below the asian low at 1.1207 at the London open when France's flash PMI slipped into contraction, and printed a day low at 1.1184. NY has met rejection at the asian low, with lower highs off the 1.1211 swing high near the fib 61.8%. Late in the NY session, price is compressing just above the ny low at 1.1193, RSI(14) is near 47 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1207 asian low and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1211 swing high, with the 1.1226 asian high beyond
Failure to hold the 1.1193 ny low exposes the 1.1187 swing low and the 1.1184 day low
Friday close: weekend French fiscal headlines carry gap risk at the open
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 54 · price 1.11984
Asian range broken lower in London; higher lows since, NY capped below 1.1207.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1207 on the EZ and French flash PMI misses, printing a session low at 1.1184. A higher low at 1.1187 followed, but the NY high spike to 1.1211 and the post-Michigan push to 1.1207 were both rejected under the former Asian low. Price is now coiling around 1.1200, the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, with the NY low at 1.1193 holding mid-NY session.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12071, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1207 reclaims the broken range and puts the ny high at 1.1211 in play
Break of the ny low at 1.1193 and the higher-low trendline exposes the session low at 1.1184
Friday London close thins liquidity; weekend French fiscal headlines carry gap risk for Monday's open
15:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, now compressing · RSI 57 · price 1.12021
Lower highs and higher lows after the London low.
London broke below the Asian low after the French-led PMI miss and set a 1.1184 session low; the NY spike high at 1.1211, near the 61.8% fib of the overnight drop, was rejected as firm US data landed. Price is now coiling between lower highs under the former Asian low at 1.1207 and a higher low at 1.1193, sitting on the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 spike high reopens the 1.1226 Asian high
Failure at the 1.1193 higher low exposes the 1.1184 session low
Cipollone (ECB) remarks and late-NY Friday squaring could break the compression either side
Asian range broken lower at London open; rising lows under a 1.1211 cap since.
The French PMI miss at London open broke the Asian range, and the asian low at 1.1207 gave way to a session low at 1.1184. Since then, early NY hours have compressed price around 1.1200 on rising lows (1.1184, 1.1187, then the 1.1193 ny swing low). The session high at 1.1211 sits near the 61.8% of the asia-london drop, and the US PMI and Michigan beats failed to extend either side. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1207 asian low and 1.1211 session high puts the price back inside the Asian range, with 1.1226 asian high above
Break of the 1.1193 ny swing low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.1184 session low
Cipollone (ECB) speaking now; comments on the December hike could shift the read into the weekly close
14:31 UTC
Recovering from London low, higher lows · RSI 59 · price 1.12058
Higher-low chain retesting broken Asian range low from below.
London open broke below the Asian range low at 1.1207 on the France/EZ PMI misses, printing a London low at 1.1184. Higher lows since then, at 1.1187 and the 1.1193 US PMI low, have lifted price back to the 50% fib near 1.1205 and above EMA20. Early NY is retesting the Asian low from below after a rejection at the 1.1211 spike high, which sits near the 61.8% fib.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 spike high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1226 Asian high next
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.1193 US PMI low reopens the 1.1184 London low
Cipollone speaking now; thinning Friday liquidity after London close can distort the session range
14:16 UTC
Range after PMI-driven drop · RSI 51 · price 1.11996
Asian range broken lower in London; 1.1184–1.1211 range since.
The broad EZ flash PMI misses, led by France, broke the Asian range at the London open. Price printed the London low at 1.1184, then a swing low at 1.1187, and has ranged below 1.1211 since. The 12:45 UTC spike high at 1.1211 was rejected near the 61.8% fib, and early NY is holding mid-range around 1.1200 above the NY low of 1.1193, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.11933, 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12113, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 spike high reopens the move back toward the 1.1226 Asian high and the 1.1231 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1187 swing low and the 1.1184 London low would extend the PMI-driven lower-low sequence
UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC, bar in progress) and Cipollone's remarks could materially shift this read
Post-London break range 1.1184–1.1211, lower highs since NY open.
London open broke below the Asian range low near 1.1207 on the across-the-board euro-area flash PMI misses, setting a session low at 1.1184; a higher low at 1.1187 held late London. The early-NY spike to 1.1211 met rejection at the 61.8% fib, with a lower high at 1.1205 since and price back under the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12045, 1.12113
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 session low breaks the range floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 1.1211 spike high reclaims the Asian range low and invalidates the range read
Failure to clear the 1.1205 lower high keeps the 1.1200 round number capping
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus US flash PMI actuals, could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday down from Asia, now basing · RSI 48 · price 1.11971
London range 1.1184–1.1204 below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range on the broad euro-area flash PMI miss, printing a 1.1184 session low before settling into a 1.1184–1.1204 range with a higher low at 1.1187. An early-NY spike to 1.1211 was rejected back inside the range, and price sits near the 38.2% of the London drop fib with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12113
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, then UoM and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1204 london high, then the 1.1211 ny spike, puts the Asian low at 1.1207 back in play
Failure of the 1.1187 higher low and the 1.1184 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, ranging after London drop · RSI 46 · price 1.11969
Asian range low broken; 1.1184–1.1204 range with spike rejection.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.1207 on the eurozone PMI misses and set a london low at 1.1184. Since then price has ranged between 1.1184 and the 1.1204 prior high, with a swing low at 1.1187 forming higher lows. A pre-NY spike to 1.1211 met rejection just under the 61.8% fib of the 1.1231–1.1184 drop, leaving price back below EMA20 ahead of US data.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12113, 1.12262
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, then Cipollone and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1184 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1170 band
Loss of the 1.1187 swing low breaks the higher-lows line
Close above the 1.1211 rejection high reclaims the Asian low and opens a path to the 1.1226 asian high
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the French and eurozone PMI misses and printed a session low at 1.1184 before basing. A late-London higher low at 1.1187 leaves the first hour of NY sitting just under the 1.12 round number, below the 1.1204 swing high, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone/UoM at 14:00 UTC could break the 1.1184–1.1204 range
M15 close above the 1.1204 swing high brings the Asian low at 1.1207 back into play
Loss of the 1.1187 higher low exposes the session low at 1.1184
Asian range broken lower at London open; London range 1.1184–1.1204 since, higher low at 1.1187.
EUR broke below the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range at London open as the French and German flash PMIs missed, sweeping yesterday's 1.1188 low to a session low at 1.1184. Since then price has been held between that low and the 1.1204 london high, with a higher low at 1.1187 and the psych 1.2000 handle overhead into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone plus UoM at 14:00 UTC could break the London range in either direction
M15 close below the 1.1187 higher low and the 1.1184 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 1.1204 london high, roughly the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-London drop, puts the 1.1207 asian low back in play as resistance
Lower highs since London rebound; lows holding 1.1184–1.1187.
Soft EZ flash PMIs, led by France's contraction, broke EUR/USD below the 1.1207 Asian low in early London. The session low at 1.1184 sits on the 1.1185 range floor, and the rebound was rejected at the 1.1204 London high, right at the 61.8% of the PMI drop. Lower highs since then have pressed price to 1.1193, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40, while the 1.1187 swing low holds.
Support: 1.11874, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11967, 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1184 session low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
A recovery above the 1.1197 lower high and the trendline ends the compression; the 1.1204 London high is the next cap
A reclaim of the 1.1207 Asian low would reverse the London break
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM / ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, early in the NY session, could materially shift this read
Flash PMI misses, led by France, broke EUR/USD below the 1.1207 Asian low in early London. Price swept yesterday's NY low to a 1.1184 session low, then stalled at a 1.1204 lower high under the descending trendline. Late London it is grinding on the 1.1192 swing low, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.11918, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1185 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1204 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the London downtrend read
Back above the 1.1207 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM / ECB Cipollone at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range after NY open
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs since the 1.11844 session low.
London broke the 1.12073 Asian low on the broad EZ PMI misses. Price swept yesterday's 1.11883 prior low to a 1.11844 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.12044 London high, near the 50% retrace of the Asian high–London low move. A string of lower highs since then has price pressing the 1.11909 London low late in the London session, RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.11909, 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.11986, 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.11909 london low exposes the 1.11883 prior low and the 1.11844 session low
Break of the lower-highs trendline with a close above 1.11986 lower high and the 1.12044 london high neutralises the intraday downtrend
Reclaim of the 1.12073 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC, plus UoM inflation expectations and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since the 10:00 UTC rebound.
The French PMI miss (composite 48.4 vs 50.5) and broad EZ PMI misses broke the Asian low at 1.1207 at London open. The selloff set a session low at 1.1184 just under yesterday's 1.1188 low. The rebound stalled at 1.1204, inside the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian high-to-session low move. A lower-highs sequence now has price pressing the 1.1193 minor base late in the London morning.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1184, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1201, 1.1207, 1.1226
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1193 minor base exposes the 1.1184 session low, then the 1.1170 range floor.
An M15 close above the 1.1201 lower high and the 1.1207 Asian low negates the lower-highs read and opens the path toward the 1.1226 Asian high.
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, plus UoM sentiment and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in the NY session.
Asian range broken lower, higher lows compressing under 61.8% retrace.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the French and EZ flash PMI misses, setting a session low at 1.1184 that undercut yesterday's 1.1188 trough. The rebound stalled at the fib 61.8 retrace near 1.1204, and price is compressing between that cap and a higher low at 1.1193 into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) around 45 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.1193, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1207
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1193 higher low exposes the 1.1184 session low
Close back above the fib 61.8 at 1.1204 and the 1.1207 asian low negates the range-break read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, UoM data and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC could break the compression
Asian range broken lower; 1.1193–1.1204 coil below the Asian low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1207 after France-led flash PMI misses and extended to a session low at 1.1184. The rebound stalled at 1.1204, the rebound high, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop. Price is now coiling around 1.1200 and EMA20 above a pullback low at 1.1193, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 1.11934, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1204 rebound high, then the 1.1207 Asian low, puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1193 pullback low breaks the rebound line and exposes the 1.1184 session low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, then Cipollone and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC, land in the NY session and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; London low swept prior low, bounce capped at 61.8%.
Broad flash PMI misses, led by France, knocked EUR/USD below the Asian low at 1.12073 at London open. The slide bottomed at the london low of 1.11844, a sweep of the prior low at 1.11883. The rebound was rejected at a lower high of 1.12044, near the 61.8% fib of the London drop. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44, mid-London.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12073
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12044 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the asian low at 1.12073 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.11844 london low, after the sweep of the 1.11883 prior low, extends the London downtrend
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, plus Cipollone and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
London broke below the 1.12073–1.12262 Asian range on the French and EZ PMI misses, sweeping yesterday's 1.11883 low to a 1.11844 London low. Price has since built higher lows up to the 1.1200 area, the 38.2% of the asian high-london low fib, and sits just over EMA20 below the 1.12044 swing high.
Support: 1.11973, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12044, 1.12073, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.12073 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 1.11973 higher low ends the bounce structure and exposes the 1.11844 london low
Rejection at the 1.12044 swing high keeps the London downside break intact
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; higher lows off London session low.
Eurozone PMI misses, led by France, pushed London through the asian low at 1.12073 and briefly under yesterday's 1.11883 prior low to a 1.11844 session low. Mid-London, price has climbed back to 1.1200 along a recovery line of higher lows. The bounce is stalling at the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop, with the 1.12033 pmi high capping.
Support: 1.11928, 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12073, 1.12102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12033 pmi high and back inside the Asian range at 1.12073 would turn the false break into range repair. The 61.8% fib at 1.12102 sits just beyond.
Break of the recovery line and the 1.11928 higher low puts the 1.11883 prior low and the 1.11844 session low back in play.
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, then Cipollone and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
London break below Asian range, swept prior low, now retracing about 50%.
French and eurozone PMI misses from 07:15 UTC broke price below the 1.1207 asian low. In London it then dipped through yesterday's 1.1189 prior low to a 1.1184 session low before closing back above it. The bounce has recovered about half of the London drop to 1.1200 and is pressing the 1.1203 pmi bounce high, where the ema20 also sits, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1207, 1.1226
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1207 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with 1.1226 asian high the range top
Rejection at the 1.1203 pmi bounce / ema20 keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 1.1184 session low would show acceptance below the 1.1189 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone plus Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1216; Asian low and prior low broken in London.
London broke below the 1.1207 Asian low as EZ flash PMIs missed across the board, led by France's composite at 48.4. The selloff ran to a 1.1184 session low that briefly undercut yesterday's 1.1188 prior low before recovering to 1.1194. Price sits below the 1.1203 lower high and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12073
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1203 lower high and the 1.1200 50% retracement of the PMI selloff breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1207 Asian low is the next cap above
Failure to hold the 1.1188 prior low reopens the 1.1184 session low; a break there exposes the 1.1170 range floor cited in the digest
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, plus UoM sentiment and ECB Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in the NY session
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 33 · price 1.11912
Asian range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain.
Flash PMI misses for France and the eurozone at London open broke the asian low at 1.1207 and the 1.1200 psych level. Price then made a session low at 1.1184, just under yesterday's prior low at 1.1188. Lower highs at 1.1216 and 1.1203 define the sequence, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12033, 1.12073
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1184 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1170 band
M15 close back above the 1.1200 psych level and the 1.1203 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1207 asian low returns price to the Asian range; the 1.1226 Asian high is the top of the fib
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and ECB's Cipollone 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, early London · RSI 31 · price 1.11894
Broke below Asian range, lower highs and lower lows since London open.
The French PMI miss at the London open knocked EUR/USD out of the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range (asian low to asian high). After the EZ PMI miss the 1.1203 bounce high capped, and a second leg swept the 1.1188 prior low to a 1.1184 session low. RSI(14) is near 31 and price sits below both EMAs, holding just above the prior low.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12073, 1.12262
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1203 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1184 session low exposes the 1.1170 uob band
Reclaim of the 1.1207 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since 00:30 UTC.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the broad euro-area flash PMI miss, led by France's 48.4 composite. Price extended to a 1.1191 London low just above yesterday's 1.1188 prior low. The rebound has capped at the 1.1203 bounce high, under the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high to London low leg, and the descending trendline from the 1.1226 Asian high is intact.
Support: 1.11909, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12033, 1.12073, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1207 Asian low puts price inside the Asian range and tests the descending trendline
Failure to hold 1.1188 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Cipollone / UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower low at 1.1191, now retracing toward the Asian low.
London opened with a break below the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range. The soft French flash PMIs drove a drop to the london low at 1.1191, just above yesterday's prior low at 1.1188. The bounce is now testing the 38.2% fib near 1.1204 just under the Asian low, with RSI(14) back to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.11909, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.1216, 1.12262
What it said to watch
Rejection below the Asian low at 1.1207 keeps the London break intact; acceptance back inside the range opens the 1.1216 swing high
A close below the london low at 1.1191 puts the prior low at 1.1188 in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the Asian high at 1.1226 negates the session breakdown
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since the Asian high.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1207 on the French and German flash PMI misses, printing a session low at 1.1191 just above yesterday's prior low at 1.1188. The bounce to 1.1197 sits below the lower-highs trendline from the 1.1226 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.11909, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12073, 1.1216, 1.12262
What it said to watch
EZ composite flash PMI (f/c 52.7) is due at 08:00 UTC and could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.1191 session low and 1.1188 prior low in play
M15 close below the 1.1188 prior low confirms a lower low beyond yesterday's London trough
A reclaim of the 1.1207 Asian low, near the 50% fib of the PMI drop, and then the 1.1216 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
Asian high at 1.1226 caps the broader 24h structure
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled risk during NY hours
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, early London break lower · RSI 21 · price 1.11936
Asian range broken to the downside; lower highs since NY peak.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1207 and the 1.1200 round number with a 13-pip bar into the first PMI set. Price is now at 1.1194, just above the 1.1191 session low and yesterday's 1.1188 swing low, with RSI(14) near 20. The drop extends the lower-highs sequence from the NY peak at 1.1231 as French spreads and oil keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.11909, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12073, 1.12262
What it said to watch
Eurozone PMIs at 08:00 GMT, following the 07:30 set, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1188 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 1.1185 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1207 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
A move back above the lower-highs line and the 1.1226 Asian high would negate the downtrend read
Lower highs since Asia open, Asian range broken to the downside at London open.
London open broke the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range lower into the 07:15 GMT PMI slot, retracing about 80% of yesterday's NY rally from 1.1188 to 1.1231 against the backdrop of wide French spreads. Highs have stepped down from the 1.1226 Asian high to a 1.1216 lower high. The 1.1188 prior low is the nearest reference, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1216, 1.1226
What it said to watch
Eurozone PMIs at 07:30 and 08:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1207 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1188 prior low exposes the 1.1170 range floor
Close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the Asian high
Asian range 1.1207–1.1226, price pinned near range low.
London open finds EURUSD at 1.1211, in the lower part of the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range and sitting on the 50% retrace of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.1188 prior low. Asian trade printed lower highs under a descending trendline from the 1.1226 Asian high, with the 1.1216 lower high capping the latest bounce. Price trades below both EMAs, ATR is compressed near 3 pips ahead of the flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12073, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1207 asian low opens the 1.1200 round number, then Thursday's 1.1188 prior low
Close above the 1.1216 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 1.1226 asian high and 1.1231 ny high
Eurozone flash PMIs at 07:15/07:30/08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US S&P PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk for the NY session
07:01 UTC
Sideways, mild lower-high drift through Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.1211
Compressed in lower half of 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range at London open.
London opens with price pinned near 1.1211, in the lower half of the 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range. Asia has printed a chain of lower highs off the 1.1226 asian high, and price is holding around the 50% level of Thursday's NY rally from the 1.1188 ny low to the 1.1231 ny high. RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 3 pips show tight compression ahead of the euro-area flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1226, 1.1231
What it said to watch
French flash PMI at 07:15 UTC, German at 07:30 and Eurozone aggregate at 08:00 could break the Asian range within the hour
An M15 close below the 1.1207 asian low exposes the 1.1188 ny low and extends the lower-high sequence
A close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the Asian lower-highs trendline; the 1.1226 asian high and 1.1231 ny high sit just above
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC are the second event-risk window today
19-pip Asian range below the 1.1231 NY high, lower highs since.
Ahead of London open, EUR/USD sits mid-to-low in a 1.1207–1.1226 Asian range, printing lower highs since the 1.1231 NY high after Thursday's French-spread-driven dip to the 1.1188 prior low. Demand has held near the asian low around the 50% retrace of the NY rally. RSI is flat near 48 and ATR is under 3 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of the flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1248
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 UTC (France, Germany, Eurozone) are the likely trigger out of the Asian range
An M15 close below the 1.1207 asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 prior low
An M15 close above the 1.1226 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1231 ny high, then the 1.1248 prior high, in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could reset the read during NY hours
Lower highs from 1.1231 NY high, tight 1.1207–1.1216 band.
The Asia bounce to the asian high at 1.1226 on soft USD faded. Price is now compressing just above the 1.1207 asian low, near the 50% level of yesterday's NY rally fib. Highs keep stepping down from the 1.1231 NY high ahead of London open, and ATR is only ~2.6 pips, so the range is very quiet going into the PMIs.
Support: 1.12073, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
EZ flash PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1207 asian low and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1216 swing high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the second event risk of the day
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1231 NY high, pressing the Asian low.
Thursday's slide to the 1.1188 thursday low came on French spread stress. A soft-USD NY bounce stalled at the 1.1231 ny high, and Asia has since printed lower highs from the 1.1226 asian high, capped at the 1.1216 asia cap. Price now sits on the 1.1207 asian low, the 50% retrace of the NY rally, into the London open with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR only 2.7 pips.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1226, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (10:15 broker), with the HIGH-impact sets at 07:30 and 08:00, could materially shift this read; services misses would put the 1.1200 round number in focus.
An M15 close below the 1.1207 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1200 and the 1.1188 thursday low.
A close above the 1.1216 asia cap and the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence, exposing the 1.1226 asian high and the 1.1231 ny high.
06:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.12099
Lower-high, lower-low chain from the 1.1226 Asian high; price near the 50% retracement of the NY rally.
Late Asia, ahead of the London open: EURUSD has faded from the 1.1226 Asian high in a lower-high sequence. It printed a session low at 1.1207 and sits at roughly the 50% retracement of yesterday's NY rally off the 1.1188 prior low, consistent with the French spread-stress drag on EUR. The 1.1200 round number sits just below, with flash PMIs due from 07:15 UTC.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1226, 1.1231
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read, and M15 ranges are likely to expand well beyond the current ~3-pip ATR
A break of the 1.1207 session low and the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1188 prior low
An M15 close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1226 asian high and the 1.1231 ny high back in view
Holding the 61.8% NY rally fib near 1.1205 keeps the move a retracement rather than a full reversal
Lower highs from the 1.1226 Asian high, fresh session low at 1.1207.
Late Asia has faded from the 1.1226 Asian high under a descending line of lower highs, printing an Asian low at 1.1207. That sits just below the 50% retracement of the NY rebound from 1.1188 to the 1.1231 NY high. ATR is compressed near 3 pips ahead of London open and the EUR flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12073, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
EUR flash PMIs at 07:15–08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the descending line
Failure to hold the 1.1207 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 prior low
Reclaiming the 1.1226 Asian high reopens the 1.1231 NY high
Asian lower highs and lower lows, compressing near session low.
Late Asia: price has bled from the 1.12262 asian high to a 1.12073 asian low, about the 50% retrace of Thursday's NY rally from the 1.11883 thu low to the 1.12311 ny high, with lower highs capping near 1.1215. ATR is under 3 pips as the pair coils inside Thursday's range ahead of the euro-area flash PMIs, with the USD still soft.
Support: 1.12073, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.12156 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain and reopens the 1.12262 asian high, then the 1.12311 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.12073 asian low exposes the 61.8% of the NY rally fib near 1.1205 and the 1.1200 round number
Break below the 1.11883 thu low would mark a new lower low beneath Thursday's range
Euro-area flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC could expand the range sharply; a services miss of more than 1pt is the main downside catalyst in the digest
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst
Asia faded from its 1.1226 Asian high on a series of lower highs, the latest near 1.1216. Price is now pressing the 1.1208 Asian low, just under the 50% retrace of yesterday's NY rally from the 1.1188 NY low, with RSI(14) near 32. The tape is thin about two hours before London open, with the euro held in its 1.1200–1.1250 band mainly by a soft USD.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1188 NY low
Close back above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the Asian lower-highs trendline
EUR flash PMIs from 07:15 to 08:00 UTC at London open could materially shift this read; the Asian high at 1.1226 and the NY high at 1.1231 cap the session range
05:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 35 · price 1.12106
Lower highs from 1.1231, price pressing Asian low into London.
Late Asia session. The bounce stalled at the 1.1226 Asian high, below Thursday's 1.1231 NY high. Since then price has slipped back to the 1.1208 Asian low, which also sits on the 50% fib of the 1.1188–1.1231 rally. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 3 pips, a compressed tape ahead of the eurozone flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1208 asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 61.8% fib near 1.1205
Thursday's 1.1188 day low is the next level below if 1.1200 gives way
Recovery above the 1.1216 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1226 asian high back in play
Eurozone flash PMIs at 07:15–08:00 UTC (10:15–11:00 broker), just after London open, could expand the range well beyond current ATR; a services miss near 1.1200 would test the round number
04:46 UTC
Mild downdrift, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 36 · price 1.1211
Late-Asia compression above Asian low.
Late Asia session. EUR/USD faded from the 1.1226 Asian high, which capped the bounce the digest attributes to a soft USD, and is compressing at 1.1211, just above the 1.1208 Asian low and the 50% retracement of Thursday's NY rebound off 1.1188. Lower highs since the 1.1231 NY high, with ATR near 3 pips ahead of flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1208 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 Thu low
M15 close above the 1.1216 micro high ends the post-02:00 UTC compression
Recovery above the 1.1226 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1231 NY high back in play
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC (~2.5h, around London open) could materially shift this read; US PMIs at 13:45 UTC
04:31 UTC
Short-term lower highs, flattening into London · RSI 46 · price 1.12134
Asia printed a lower high and lower low; now compressing above the Asian low.
Late Asia session. Price faded from the 1.12262 Asian high to the 1.12084 Asian low and is now compressing around 1.1213, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR only ~3 pips. The Asian low held between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.11883 prior low, which came after the soft Consumer Confidence-led dip through 1.1200; the 1.12311 NY high and the Asian high form a line of lower highs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs at 07:15/07:30 UTC (France, Germany) and 08:00 UTC (EZ) land just after London open and could materially shift this read
Break of the 1.12084 Asian low opens the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.11883 prior low
M15 close above the 1.12156 micro high and the lower highs line puts the 1.12262 Asian high and 1.12311 NY high back in play
04:16 UTC
Short-term range, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 41 · price 1.12145
Asian range 1.1208–1.1226 inside the NY rebound off 1.1188.
Late Asia session, with price mid-range after Thursday's NY rebound from the 1.1188 ny low stalled at the 1.1231 ny high. Asia printed a lower high at 1.1226, and the dip to the 1.1208 asian low held near the 50% retrace of that NY leg. Price sits at the 38.2% level, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips. EUR support is coming mainly from a soft USD into today's flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1208 asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 ny low
M15 close above the 1.1226 asian high and 1.1231 ny high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 1.1250 range cap next
Flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (France, then Germany, then the Eurozone at 08:00) could materially shift this read around London open
Asian range 1.1208–1.1226 beneath descending highs.
Late Asia session: after Thursday's French-yield-driven slide to the 1.1188 day low and recovery to the 1.1231 swing high, price printed a lower high on the rejection at the 1.1226 Asian high and is rotating inside the 1.1208–1.1226 Asian range. It sits on the 38.2% recovery fib, just under EMA20, with ATR(14) compressed near 3.4 pips ahead of the eurozone flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.1251
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (France, Germany, then eurozone at 08:00) could break the Asian range in either direction
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1208 exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 day low
Close above the asian high at 1.1226 and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1231 swing high, then the 1.1251 prior high
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Sideways, pullback from NY high stalling · RSI 42 · price 1.1215
Asian range 1.1208–1.1226 inside Thursday's 1.1188–1.1251; lower high vs higher low.
The NY rally off the 1.1188 Thursday low stalled at the 1.1231 NY high on a soft USD. Asia then printed a lower high at 1.1226 and held the 1.1208 asia low near the 50% fib of that rally, keeping the higher-low sequence intact. Price is mid-range at 1.1215 late in Asia, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips ahead of London.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.1251
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (France, Germany, then Eurozone at 08:00) could materially shift this read and break the Asian range
An M15 close below the asia low at 1.1208 breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the thu low at 1.1188
A close above the asia high at 1.1226 and the ny high at 1.1231 clears the lower-high line and opens the path to the thu high at 1.1251
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are a second volatility point for the NY session
03:31 UTC
Range, lower highs in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.12142
Asian range 1.1208–1.1226 inside Thursday's 1.1188–1.1231 rebound; price in lower half.
Thursday's NY sell-off to the 1.1188 swing low, driven by French yields and oil, reversed to a 1.1231 prior high. Late Asia session is ranging between the 1.1226 Asian high and the 1.1208 Asian low, which sits at the 50% fib of that rebound. A lower high under the descending line keeps price below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (France, Germany, then Eurozone at 08:00) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.1208 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 61.8% fib near 1.1205
Close above the 1.1226 Asian high and the descending line puts the 1.1231 prior high back in play
Loss of 1.1200 reopens Thursday's 1.1188 swing low
Asian lower highs from 1.1226, price testing Asian low near 50% of NY rally.
The Asia session rebound on renewed USD selling met rejection at the 1.1226 Asian high, just under the 1.1231 NY high. Price has since faded along a line of Asian lower highs to the 1.1208 Asian low, about the 50% fib of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.1188 NY low. The pair is still inside the 1.1200–1.1250 range: RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR runs at roughly 3.6 pips ahead of the flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1208 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 NY low
M15 close above the Asian lower highs line and the 1.1226 Asian high shifts focus to the 1.1231 NY high, then the 1.1250 range top
France flash PMIs at 07:15 UTC, then Germany at 07:30 and the eurozone aggregate at 08:00, could break the range on either side
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are later risk to the range read
03:01 UTC
Short-term lower highs after NY rebound · RSI 40 · price 1.12132
Lower highs from 1.1231 NY high; Asian range 1.1208–1.1226, price in lower half.
Mid-Asia session. The soft-USD NY rebound from 1.1188 stalled at the 1.1231 NY high, and lower highs have formed since, with a rejection at the 1.1226 Asian high. The asian low at 1.1208 is holding just under the 50% retracement of that NY rebound leg, with price below both EMAs into the EUR flash PMIs.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1208 extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1226 asian high and the 1.1231 NY high breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 1.1250 range top
EUR flash PMIs at 07:15–08:00 UTC (France, Germany, aggregate) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1226 under 1.1231, fresh session low at 1.1208.
The Asia session rebound stalled at the 1.1226 session high, a lower high under the late-NY 1.1231 swing high, as the soft-USD bid faded. Price slipped to a 1.1208 session low and now sits on the 50% fib of yesterday's NY rally from the 1.1188 NY low, just above the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1188 NY low
Recovery above the 1.1226 session high and the 1.1231 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a broad beat brings the 1.1250 range top into view, a miss puts 1.1200 at risk
02:31 UTC
Intraday pullback inside a broader range · RSI 35 · price 1.12109
Asia rebound capped at 1.1226, lower highs into session low.
The Asia session rebound on a soft USD stalled at the 1.1226 Asian high. Price has since faded back to the session low near 1.1208, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 35, and Thursday's NY swing low at 1.1188 sits under the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.12084, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12194, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1208 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 swing low
Recovery through the 61.8% asia drop fib at 1.1219 puts the 1.1226 asian high and the 1.1231 swing high back in play
Eurozone PMIs at 07:15–08:00 UTC could break the 1.1200–1.1250 one-week range
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs since NY high; Asian range low broken.
Rejection at the 1.1226 Asian high has put in another lower high below the 1.1231 NY high. Price has slipped under the 1.1212 Asian low and sits on the 50% retrace of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.1188 prior low, with RSI(14) near 32. The soft-USD rebound in Asia is fading ahead of today's euro-area PMIs.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.12262, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.1212 asian low returns price to the Asian range and negates the break
Loss of the 1.1200 round number, the one-week range floor, exposes the 1.1188 prior low
M15 close above the lower highs line from the 1.1231 ny high would end the fade structure
Euro-area PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Flat, sideways after NY rebound · RSI 47 · price 1.12181
Tight Asian range 1.1212–1.1226 below the 1.1231 NY high, a lower high in place.
Thursday's London break below the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1188 day low turned into a false break, and NY reversed it as the USD faded toward three-week lows. Asia is now compressed in a 1.1212–1.1226 band. Price is easing off the 1.1226 Asian high, a lower high under the 1.1231 NY high, and sits just under EMA20/EMA50 above the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12262, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1212 swing low (38.2% fib zone) exposes the 1.1200 round number, the floor of the one-week range
A close above the 1.1226 Asian high reopens the 1.1231 NY high, with the prior high at 1.1256 above
Losing 1.1200 again would put the 1.1188 day low back in play and undo the false-break read
Eurozone PMIs at 07:15–08:00 UTC are likely to set the London range; US PMIs at 13:45 UTC follow in the NY session
01:46 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY recovery · RSI 53 · price 1.12198
Asian range 1.1212–1.1226 under lower highs.
Thursday's failure at the 1.1256 prior high gave way to a slide to the 1.1188 day low in NY on French yield and oil pressure. A recovery to the 1.1231 swing high followed as DXY faded near 102.00. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.1212 swing low and the 1.1226 asia high, where an hourly push was rejected, with price on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1256 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1212 swing low, near the 50% fib of the NY rally, exposes the 1.1188 day low
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (France, Germany, then EZ at 08:00) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Recovery from 1.1188 stalled, now flat · RSI 50 · price 1.12207
Lower high at 1.1226 under the 1.1231 NY high; tight Asian range.
Thursday's London-NY slide ran from the 1.1256 thu high to the 1.1188 swing low as the USD bounced. The recovery saw rejection at the 1.1231 ny high, close to the 61.8% retrace. The Asian session is compressing around the 50% level between the 1.1218 asia low and the 1.1226 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) near 3 pips ahead of the euro-area flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1212, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1218 asia low exposes the late ny low at 1.1212, then the 1.1188 swing low
Close above the 1.1231 ny high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path to the 1.1256 thu high
Euro-area flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC likely resolve the tight Asian range
01:16 UTC
Sideways, NY rebound stalling · RSI 53 · price 1.1219
Tight Asian range inside Thursday's 1.1188–1.1256 span, lower highs.
Early Asia session is contained in a 1.1212–1.1226 range. The last bars rejected the asian high and sit just under EMA20. This follows Thursday's slide to the 1.1188 day low on the USD bounce and French spread stress, then a NY rebound that capped at the 1.1231 ny high and held its retrace near the 38.2–50% zone. Lower highs at 1.1231 and 1.1226 are capping the drift; ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so the tape is quiet ahead of the PMIs.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 asian low exposes the 1.1188 day low
Close above the 1.1231 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.1256 prior high
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC could break the Asian range either side
US S&P PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Asia grind higher after Thursday's sell-off · RSI 64 · price 1.12251
Higher lows from late-NY low, capped under NY high.
Early Asia session is printing higher lows along a rising trendline from the 1.1212 late-NY low. That low held a 38–50% retrace of the NY rally off the 1.1188 day low, which marked the bottom of Thursday's London sell-off on French spread stress and a USD bounce. Price is pressing the 1.1231 NY high in thin trade, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1212, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high exposes the 1.1250 range top, where London failed Thursday
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1219 asia low turns focus back to the 1.1212 late-ny low
Loss of 1.1212 erases the NY rally fib structure and reopens the 1.1188 day low
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC (~6h out) are likely to set the London range
Higher lows off the late NY low at 1.1212, capped below the 1.1231 NY high.
Thursday's NY rally from 1.1188 stalled at the 1.1231 NY high as USD faded after DXY failed near 102.00. The late NY pullback held at 1.1212, about the 38–50% retrace of that rally. Early Asia is grinding higher along a rising line from that late NY low and is now pressing 1.1225, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1212, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1250, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high opens the 1.1250 round number and the 1.1256 Thu Asia high
Break of the rising line and the 1.1212 late NY low exposes the fib 61.8 near 1.1205
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC around London open could materially shift this read; US PMIs follow at 13:45 UTC
Early Asia session, price is pressing the 1.1225 Asian high after Thursday's oil and French-yield slide bottomed at the 1.1188 day low in NY and rebounded to the 1.1231 NY high. The pullback held the 1.1212 Asian low near the 50% retrace of that rebound, a higher low on the rising lows line, while ATR has compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12121, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12249, 1.12311
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1231 NY high extends the rebound toward the 1.1255 prior high
Loss of the 1.1212 Asian low and the rising lows line puts the 1.1200 psych pivot and the 1.1188 day low back in play
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalled below NY high · RSI 60 · price 1.12212
Higher low at 1.1212 after 1.1188 low; tight Asian range under 1.1231.
Oil, French spreads and soft EZ confidence drove Thursday's London-to-NY slide to the 1.1188 day low. Rejection at the 1.1231 NY high produced a pullback that held 1.1212 (late-ny low) near the 38.2–50% fib of the rally. Early Asia session is compressing in a 10-pip Asian range up to 1.1222, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12221, 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1222 asian high puts the 1.1231 ny high back in play; clearing it removes the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.1212 late-ny low and the rising support line opens psych 1.12, then the 1.1188 day low
EZ flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC are likely to break the Asian range; US flash PMIs follow at 13:45 UTC
NY rebound capped at 1.1231; tight 1.1212–1.1222 band into Asia.
London unwound the 1.1255 asian high and drove through 1.1200 on oil, French spreads and soft EZ confidence, printing a 1.1188 day low in NY hours. The NY rebound saw rejection at the 1.1231 ny high and has since held a 1.1212–1.1222 band above the late ny low, about 26% into the fib of the ny rebound. Rising support from the day low is intact, and ATR is near 3 pips in thin pre-Asia trade.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Friday flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC EZ, 13:45 UTC US) could materially shift this read
Break of the 1.1212 late ny low and rising support exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 day low
M15 close above the 1.1231 ny high reopens the path toward the 1.1255 asian high