1.1180-1.1270 range since the 1.1113 swing low, highs stepping lower into the floor.
The slide from 1.1400 stalled at the 1.1113 swing low. Since then price has held a 1.1180-1.1270 range, with a lower high at 1.1256 after the 1.1269 swing high and smaller highs since compressing price against the range floor near 1.1184. ATR(14) has contracted to roughly 24 pips. Price trades below a flattening ema20 and EMA50 and is near the 50% retracement of the 1.1113-1.1269 leg after Friday's broad Eurozone PMI miss and French spread stress weighed on EUR.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1172, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the range floor at 1.1184 exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1172, then the 1.1113 swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1222, then a break of the lower highs trendline at 1.1256 and the 1.1269 swing high, would invalidate the compressing-range read
German IFO (Mon 09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) could test the range edges
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance could resolve the ATR compression
OAT-Bund spread pushing toward 200bp would add pressure on the range floor
13:01 UTC
Sideways range after late-September slide, highs drifting lower · RSI 39 · price 1.11902
Three-week 1.1113–1.1276 range with lower highs off 1.1269; price back below 1.1200.
The slide from 1.1410 stalled at 1.1161 and EURUSD has since held a 1.1113–1.1276 range, with each recovery peak lower since the 1.1269 range top. Broad eurozone PMI misses, led by France, pushed price back under the 1.1200 round number to the 50% retracement of the 1.1113–1.1269 leg, where the 1.1184 swing low is being tested. ATR(14) has shrunk to about 23 pips from 40+ pips early in the month, and the EMA(20) and EMA(50) are flat and tangled near 1.1210, so the range is compressing rather than trending.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1184 swing low turns the range into a lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1151 prior low, then the 1.1113 range low
Recovery back above 1.1200 and the 1.1235 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and returns focus to the 1.1269 range top
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and the Cipollone speech at 14:00 UTC today could decide the test of 1.1184
ECB decision on 29 Oct and the FOMC midweek are the main risks to a break of the range in either direction
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a range · RSI 40 · price 1.11983
Lower highs from 1.1269 against a flat 1.1180–1.1190 floor.
The slide from 1.1410 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1269 swing high, and since then a descending trendline of lower highs (1.1269, 1.1260, 1.1256) has pressed price onto a range floor near 1.1185 that has held four times. Price is back under the ema20 and sitting on the 50% retracement of the October rally, with the 61.8% fib at 1.1172 just below. Today's flash-PMI miss and French spread stress are weighing on EUR, while a soft USD has so far kept the floor intact, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows a contracting regime.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1172, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1255, 1.1269
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.1185 range floor would confirm a range break and expose the 61.8% fib at 1.1172, then the 1.1113 swing low
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1225, then a close above the trendline at 1.1255, would neutralise the lower-high sequence and put the 1.1269 swing high back in play
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC), UoM (14:00 UTC) and ECB Cipollone (14:00 UTC) today could break the compression
ECB decision Oct 29 and next week's Fed are the dominant risks to this range read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, compressing in a range · RSI 44 · price 1.12138
Lower highs from 1.1285 against higher lows from the 1.1113 swing low.
The slide from 1.1410 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low. Since then price has compressed between the 1.1188 range floor and the 1.1260 range cap, which sits just under the 50% retracement of the 1.1410-1.1113 fib. Lower highs from 1.1285 are pressing against higher lows, and ATR(14) has contracted to ~21 pips from mid-30s during the decline, with price pinned around flat, converged EMA20/EMA50 near 1.1215. A softer USD lifted the pair off its lows, but French spread stress and oil have capped the euro's follow-through.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1188 range floor, after losing the 1.1200 round number, reopens the 1.1113 swing low
H4 close above the 1.1260 range cap and the lower-highs line puts the 1.1285 lower high in play
Flash EUR PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) today could break the compression
French-German spread widening near 175bp is the main structural risk to the higher-lows line
ECB and Fed decisions next week could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows inside a narrowing range.
The selloff from 1.1410 bottomed at the 1.1113 swing low. Since then price has compressed, with lower highs at the 1.1276 swing high, 1.1269 and the 1.1256 range high, and higher lows at 1.1180 and the 1.1188 range low. Rallies keep stalling near the 50% retracement of the selloff fib. ATR(14) has shrunk to about 21 pips, well below the selloff readings, as French spread stress caps EUR and a soft USD limits the downside. Price sits just under a flattening EMA20 and above EMA50, which fits the coiling read rather than a renewed trend.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1256 range high and the lower highs line opens the 1.1276 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1188 range low and the higher lows line exposes the 1.1113 swing low
Eurozone flash PMIs today and US PMIs/UoM Friday could break the compression
ECB and Fed decisions next week could materially shift this read