Lower highs and lower lows below the 1.1200 handle.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.1256 thu high in Thursday's Asia session. A London-led selloff that day broke the Tuesday-Wednesday 1.1214–1.1240 range, and Friday's broad Eurozone PMI misses pushed price to a 1.1184 week low. The NY-session bounce to 1.1211 stalled at the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-Friday drop and faded after the firm US PMIs. Price now sits just under EMA(20), which has converged on the 1.1200 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 40 and no divergence yet.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12113, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1200 psych/ema20 and through the lower highs trendline would break the sequence since Thursday
Failure to hold the 1.1184 week low (thu low 1.1188 just above) extends the lower-low sequence, with 1.1120 the next marker in the macro read
Only a recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1211 and then the 1.1256 thu high would undo Thursday's range breakdown
IFO Mon 09:00 UTC, Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1256; marginal lower low at 1.1184.
H1 has printed lower highs since Thursday's Asia-session peak at 1.1256. Thursday's London-to-NY slide and Friday's broad EZ flash PMI misses, led by France back in contraction, pushed the pair to a 1.1184 week low. The rebound into the London-NY transition stalled at the 1.1211 Friday high, at the 38.2% retracement and the descending trendline. Price has since slipped back under the 1.1200 psych handle and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.11844, 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12113
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1211 Friday high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1184 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.1120 ING marker
Repeated rejection below the 1.1200 psych handle keeps price pinned under EMA(20)
Monday's German IFO and next week's ECB and Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC) decisions could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1260; price pressing the 1.1184–1.1188 lows.
Highs have stepped lower since Tuesday's 1.1260 spike. Thursday's London-session drop and Friday's slide on the broad EZ flash PMI misses set a 1.1184 week low and took price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Rebounds have stalled at the 1.1200 psych handle and the 1.1211 fri high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of Thursday's leg; RSI(14) holds near 38, and the US PMI and Michigan beats in the NY session kept price pinned near the thu low / week low zone into the close.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12113, 1.12311
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1211 fri high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 1.1231 thu rebound high would neutralise this week's downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.1184 week low after the thu low retest confirms a lower-low extension
OAT-Bund spread beyond 178bp, Mon IFO 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) and Wed FOMC could materially shift this read
The Tuesday-Wednesday range above 1.1214 broke during Thursday's London session, with each rebound since printing a lower high along the trendline from 1.1256. Friday's flash PMI misses, led by France slipping into contraction, pushed price to a week low of 1.1184 in London. US PMI and UoM beats then capped the NY bounce at 1.1211, back under ema20. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) holding around 42, while repeated lows at 1.1184-1.1188 form a flat base under 1.1200.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1203, 1.1231
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1231 lower high (61.8% of Thursday's drop) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1184 week low exposes the 1.1170 range floor of UOB's 1.1170-1.1270 band
Sustained trade back above ema20 near 1.1203 would neutralise the lower-highs trendline
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC and Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC could shift the read on EUR
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC guidance on a December hike is the main USD-side risk
French OAT-Bund spread widening toward 200bp could extend the move below 1.1184
Lower highs pressing a thrice-tested 1.1184 floor.
EUR/USD rotated in a 1.1205–1.1260 range through Wednesday. Thursday's London-session selloff from 1.1256, just shy of Tuesday's 1.1260 week high, broke that range and started a run of lower highs along a descending trendline. Friday's broad EZ flash PMI miss, led by French contraction, drove a fresh week low at 1.1184 in London; the bounce into the NY open stalled at the 1.1211 lower high, the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 45, while the 1.1184–1.1188 week low area has now held three tests.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1184 week low breaks the floor and exposes the 1.1170 range base
Close above the 1.1211 lower high and the descending trendline undercuts the lower-highs read, with Thursday's NY high at 1.1231 next
Recovery through 1.1231 would put the 1.1260 week high back in play
Weekend French spread headlines and Monday's German IFO (09:00 UTC, f/c 89.8) could gap or reprice the open
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: December-hike guidance is the main USD swing risk for the week
15:01 UTC
Downtrend within weekly range, lower highs since Thursday · RSI 40 · price 1.11991
Lower highs from 1.1256 compressing onto 1.1184–1.1188 lows.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's Asia session peak at 1.1256. Thursday's London-NY selloff to 1.1188 was followed by a fresh Friday low at 1.1184 at London open, after the broad EZ flash PMI miss led by France. The NY high at 1.1211 met rejection at the descending trendline and EMA(20) as US PMIs and Michigan sentiment beat, leaving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.11844, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.12113, 1.12262, 1.12313
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1211 NY high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the friday high at 1.1226 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1231 next
Failure to hold the 1.1184 friday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1170 lower band
German IFO Mon 09:00 UTC (f/c 89.8) and Lagarde Tue 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, where a December-hike signal is the USD swing factor
Lower highs from 1.1260 week high; lows holding 1.1184–1.1188.
The pair has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY-session spike to the 1.1260 week high. Thursday's London-to-NY slide took out the weekly range floor, and Friday's broad euro-area flash PMI miss, led by France, pushed price to a fresh week low at 1.1184 during London. Demand has stepped in three times in the 1.1184–1.1188 area, forming a tentative double bottom. Price is pinned at the 1.1200 round number just under the EMA(20) near 1.1207, and RSI(14) sits in the low 40s.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1184
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1226, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1184 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1170 band
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 1.1226 friday high would challenge the lower-highs read; 1.1231 is the double bottom neckline
US flash PMI (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read into the weekly close
A move back toward the 1.1260 week high would break the lower highs trendline structure
Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 week high faded, and Thursday's Asia push to 1.1256 printed a lower high before a London-into-NY slide to 1.1188. Friday's Asia high at 1.1226 capped again, and London then took out Thursday's low to a 1.1184 week low on the across-the-board EZ flash PMI misses (France composite 48.4). Price sits below the 1.1200 round number and under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 34, while the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-Friday decline at ~1.1212 lines up with the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.11844, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12262, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline (~1.1210) would break the lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 1.1184 week low exposes the 1.1170 range floor cited in this week's band
A move through the 1.1226 asia high would put the 1.1256 lower high back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break below 1.1200, lower highs and lower lows.
EUR/USD rotated in a roughly 1.1205–1.1260 band from Monday to Wednesday. It broke below the 1.1200 psych level during Thursday's London session as French spread stress weighed. The NY rebound stalled at 1.1231, and Friday's broad flash PMI miss pushed price through the 1.1188 thu low to a 1.1184 week low at London open. Highs have stepped lower from 1.1260 on Tuesday to 1.1256 on Thursday and 1.1226 for the asia high, and the 50% retracement of the Thursday-high-to-week-low drop sits near 1.1220. Price is now capped below 1.1200 and the ema20 at 1.1208, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.11883, 1.11844
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1208, 1.12262
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 psych and ema20 at 1.1208 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Break of the 1.1188 thu low and 1.1184 week low confirms a fresh lower-low; holding them leaves a two-day base in place
Close above the 1.1226 asia high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the descending structure
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, plus UoM sentiment and ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday; week low swept at 1.1184.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's Asia-session peak at the 1.1256 thu high. London drove both legs lower: Thursday's slide, then today's push to a 1.1184 week low on across-the-board flash PMI misses and French stress. The dip below Thursday's 1.1188 low was bought back to 1.1200 within the hour, but price holds under the EMA(20) at 1.1209. RSI(14) near 41 shows no divergence versus Thursday's low.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1209, 1.1226, 1.1256
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1209 and the 1.1226 asian high would break the lower-highs sequence; 61.8% of the Thu-Fri drop sits nearby at 1.1228
Failure to hold the 1.1184 week low exposes the 1.1170 range floor of the week's 1.1170–1.1260 band
A close above the 1.1256 thu high would void the lower-highs read
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC), UoM sentiment and ECB's Cipollone (14:00 UTC) land in the NY session and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1256; marginal new week low below Thursday's NY low.
Since Thursday's Asia-session high at 1.1256, EUR/USD has printed a sequence of lower highs: 1.1231 into Thursday's NY session, then the 1.1226 Friday high in Asia. The broad Eurozone flash PMI misses, led by France's contraction, drove a London-session leg to a new week low at 1.1184, marginally under Thursday's 1.1188 NY low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1211 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 29, and the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-high-to-week-low drop overlaps the ema20 area.
Support: 1.11844, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.12262, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.1211 (38.2% fib) would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1226 fri high reopens the 1.1256 thu high
Failure to hold the 1.1184 week low exposes the 1.1170 range floor cited in the digest
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Cipollone and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside the weekly range · RSI 34 · price 1.11988
Lower highs since Thu, retesting week low.
EURUSD chopped in a 1.1190–1.1255 range from Monday into Thursday's Asia high at 1.1256, then the London-to-NY selloff set a week low at 1.1188; the rebound from Thursday's drop stalled at the fib 61.8 near 1.1230 and has printed lower highs since. Today's London open added a fresh leg to 1.1191 as euro-area flash PMIs missed across the board, with French services weakest. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.1212 with RSI(14) near 34, retesting the week low under the lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.11883, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1212, 1.1230, 1.12556
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1188 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1170 uob band floor
Recovery above the 1.1230 fib 61.8 and the lower highs trendline would undo the breakdown read and put the 1.1256 thu high back in view
Holding back under EMA(20) at 1.1212 on any bounce keeps the lower-high sequence intact
ECB's Cipollone at 14:00 UTC, plus US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.1188–1.1260 weekly range; price below EMA20 near the floor half.
EURUSD has held a 1.1188–1.1260 range since Monday. Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 week high on soft US housing data faded, and Thursday's London selloff on French spread stress tagged the 1.1188 week low, matching Monday's base. The NY rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib near 1.1231, and price has since printed lower highs, slipping below the ema20 to sit on the Friday asian low at 1.1207 as German and French PMI misses land.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 1.1188 week low breaks the range floor tested on Monday and Thursday
A close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1220 eases pressure, with the 61.8% fib at 1.1231 as the next cap
Loss of the 1.1207 asian low leaves 1.1200 psych as the last buffer before 1.1188
EZ flash composite PMI at 08:00 UTC (f/c 52.7) could materially shift this read after the soft national prints
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC put NY hours in play for a test of either range edge
1.1186–1.1260 range with lower highs since Tuesday.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1186–1.1260 range since Monday's London-open drop. Thursday's rejection from the 1.1256 thu high turned into a London-to-NY slide as French spreads widened and oil firmed, and the move stopped just above Monday's week low. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1231 lower high, the 61.8% retracement, and price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.1215 with RSI(14) near 43, holding a tight Asian range above the 1.1207 session low.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1207 session low exposes the 1.1186 week low at the range floor
Failure to hold the 1.1186 week low would break the weekly range
A close back above EMA(20) at 1.1215 and the 1.1231 lower high would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 44 · price 1.12085
1.1186–1.1260 weekly range, twice-tested floor.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1186–1.1260 range since Monday. Tuesday's NY spike set the range top at 1.1260, and Thursday's Asia high at 1.1256 formed a lower high before French spread stress and oil drove the Thursday selloff back to 1.1188, a retest of Monday's 1.1186 week low on the range floor. The rebound high at 1.1231 stalled near the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Friday's Asian session has faded back below the ema20 toward the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 44 and the soft USD the main thing keeping the floor intact.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11862
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
Euro-area flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC: services misses could push price through the 1.1200 round number toward the 1.1186 week low
H1 close below the 1.1186 week low breaks the range floor and the double test of the lows
Recovery above the 1.1231 rebound high, the 61.8% of the Thursday selloff, reopens the 1.1256 lower high and range top
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift the soft-USD support beneath the range
EUR/USD has rotated inside a 1.1186–1.1260 range since Monday's session. Thursday's Asia push to the 1.1256 thu high printed a lower high under Tuesday's 1.1260 NY spike, then French spread stress, firmer oil and the Consumer Confidence miss drove a London-into-NY slide to 1.1188, just above Monday's week low, and the break below 1.1200 did not hold. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1231 rebound high near the 61.8% fib; price now sits on the 38.2% level around 1.1214, just under a flattening EMA(20) at 1.1217 with RSI(14) near 44, and the asian low at 1.1208 and the 1.1200 round number are the nearest floors.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Euro-area flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC: a Services miss of more than ~1pt puts the 1.1200 round number back in play
H1 close below the 1.1186 week low breaks the range floor that held on Monday and Thursday
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 1.1231 rebound high reopens the 1.1256 thu high and the lower highs line
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
1.1186–1.1256 weekly range; lower highs since Thursday's 1.1256 top.
EURUSD has held a 1.1186–1.1256 range since Monday. Pushes above the 1.1255 range top were rejected on Tuesday and Thursday, and two dips below 1.1200 were reclaimed. Thursday's London-led slide, driven by French yields, oil and the soft consumer confidence print, bounced in NY to the 61.8% fib near the 1.1231 NY high before fading into lower highs. Asia is now pressing the 1.1208 Asian low below EMA(20) at 1.1217, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could break the range in either direction
H1 close below the 1.1200 psych level and the 1.1186 week low would break the range floor
Reclaiming EMA(20) and the 1.1231 NY high would negate the lower highs and reopen the 1.1255 range top
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations at 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Week-long 1.1186–1.1256 range with lower highs since Thursday.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1186–1.1256 range all week. Tuesday's NY spike to 1.1260 faded back inside the range top, and Thursday's London-to-NY slide on French spread and oil headlines stalled at 1.1188, close to Monday's London-open week low. The NY rebound capped near the 61.8% retracement of Thursday's drop at 1.1231, and the Asia bounce to 1.1226 on renewed USD selling set another lower high. Price now sits under the ema20 at 1.1218 with RSI(14) near 47, drifting toward the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1218, 1.1226, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Flash eurozone PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 UTC could break the range in either direction
An H1 close below the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1186 week low and the twin-low floor in play
A failure to reclaim the ema20 and the 1.1226 asia high keeps the lower highs sequence intact
A sustained break of the 1.1256 range top would end the range read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are a second risk window during NY hours
EURUSD has held a 1.1186–1.1260 range all week. Monday's London-open drop and Thursday's London-to-NY slide both found demand at the week low area, while Tuesday's NY spike to the 1.1260 week high and Thursday's Asia high at 1.1256 capped the range top. Thursday's 67-pip reversal came as French yields climbed and the USD bounced off three-week lows. The NY rebound then stalled at the 1.1231 NY high, the 61.8% of the Thursday sell-off fib, and price now sits near the 50% level around 1.1221. RSI(14) is flat at 50 and EMA(20) and EMA(50) have converged around 1.1220.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1212 late NY low reopens the 1.1186 week low and range floor
H1 close below 1.1186 breaks the range floor and the equal-lows structure
H1 close above the 1.1231 NY high exposes the 1.1256 Thu high and the 1.1260 week high at the range top
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC, then US PMIs 13:45 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.1186–1.1260 weekly range, mid-range after Thursday's round trip.
The pair has held a 1.1186–1.1260 range all week. Monday's London-open spike to the week low and Tuesday's NY spike to the week high were both rejected. Thursday's slide from the 1.1256 Asia high came through London into the NY open on oil, French yields and the soft Consumer Confidence print (-17.9 vs -17); it stalled at 1.1188, just above Monday's week low. The rebound to 1.1231 stalled near the 61.8% retracement and became the rebound high, and price now sits on the flat EMA(20) just under the EMA50 near 1.1223. RSI(14) is parked at 50.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1223, 1.1231, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Wed lows near 1.1214 and the 1.1200 round number puts the 1.1186 week low and range floor back in play
Close above the 1.1231 rebound high and 61.8% retracement reopens the 1.1256–1.1260 week high and range top
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
A break of the 1.1186 week low would end the range read and mark a lower low