21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a base · RSI 36 · price 1.12005
LH/LL from Aug 21 high; 3-week range 1.1113–1.1276.
Downtrend since the Aug 21 high at 1.1711. The Sep 9 lower high at 1.1654 and the mid-September break of 1.1566 set the LH/LL chain, and EMA(50) is falling well overhead. For three weeks the Aug–Oct decline has paused in a range between the 1.1113 swing low and the 1.1276 range top, with rebounds stalling near the 23.6% fib. This week's soft flash PMIs and French spread stress held price below the ema20 near 1.1235, while RSI near 36 is drifting rather than pressing into oversold.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1113, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1276, 1.1341
What it said to watch
- Loss of the 1.1180 week low puts the 1.1113 swing low back in play; a daily close below 1.1113 resumes the LL sequence toward the 1.1000 psych level
- Daily closes back above the ema20 and the 1.1276 range top break the three-week base and open the 38.2% fib at 1.1341
- Lagarde (Tue 17:00 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) in the same week could materially shift this read
- A widening OAT-Bund spread toward 200bp would add EUR-specific pressure on the range floor