Lower highs and lower lows from weekly open, capped by descending trendline.
EURUSD has stepped lower from the 1.1220 weekly open. Selling came in three legs: Monday's US hours, Tuesday's London session, and late Tuesday NY, which printed a fresh week low at 1.1121 as French spread stress and a pre-FOMC USD bid weighed on EUR. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1139, and every bounce this week, including Tuesday's 1.1154 lower high, has stalled at the descending lower-high trendline. RSI(14) is holding in the high-30s without divergence.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1139, 1.1154, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the lower-high trendline and 1.1154 would break the sequence of lower highs and point back toward the 50% retracement of the week's drop near 1.1174
Failure to hold the 1.1121 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC and Lagarde's December guidance are a second event risk
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1226 week high, price at new week low.
The pair has slid about 100 pips from the 1.1220 weekly open. Monday's leg ran through the London-NY transition, Tuesday's London open broke 1.1135, and late NY extended it to a fresh week low at 1.1121. Every bounce has stalled below the descending lower-high trendline, with Tuesday's 1.1154 lower high capping the move and price holding under the ema20 near 1.1140. RSI(14) sits near 33 without divergence, and the selling tracks French OAT-Bund spread stress and a pre-Fed USD bid.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1140, 1.1154, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1154 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% fib near 1.1174 in view
Failure to hold the 1.1121 week low exposes the 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a neutral tone has room to unwind the USD rally
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC and Lagarde's December hike signal are the next EUR-side risk
Reclaim of the 1.1220 weekly open would negate this week's downtrend structure
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but extending · RSI 29 · price 1.11251
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 week high.
Each rally has printed a lower high since Monday's 1.1226 week high in the Asia session. Both main legs of the slide ran during London hours, Monday morning and again after Tuesday's London open. NY's bounce stalled at the 1.1154 lower high just above the ema20, and late selling printed a fresh day low at 1.1121 with RSI(14) near 29, as pre-Fed USD demand and French spread stress weighed on EUR. Price is now about 10 pips above 1.1113 key support, with the 1.1100 round number below that, and sits under both EMAs with the fib retracement levels of the week-high move stacked overhead.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11491, 1.11541, 1.1173
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1154 lower high would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
A recovery back through the Monday low at 1.1173, where the 50% fib and EMA(50) sit, would neutralise the downtrend read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read; the ECB decision follows Thu 13:15 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, tight NY range at week low.
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1220 open. London drove both legs: Monday's slide and Tuesday's 08:00 UTC break through 1.1150, as French spread widening and pre-FOMC dollar demand weighed on EUR. Price has held below EMA(20) through Tuesday, and the lower-high trendline from Monday's 1.1226 high capped the NY bounce at the 1.1154 lower high. The fresh 1.1132 week low printed on a higher RSI(14) than the London flush, a mild bullish divergence just above the 1.1113 key support.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1147, 1.11541, 1.11765
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1154 lower high and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.1132 week low exposes the 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1147 would test the downtrend read; the 1.1177 Tuesday high sits near the 50% level of the week decline fib
FOMC decision and Warsh presser Wed 18:00 UTC, then the ECB on Thu 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; Tuesday bounce capped below falling EMA(20).
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.12198 weekly open. Monday's NY session broke the prior week's lows, and Tuesday's London open extended the decline to 1.1135, with wider French spreads and a firmer USD into the Fed doing the pushing. The midday bounce stalled at 1.11541, below a falling EMA(20). Late NY has pressed a fresh week low at 1.11323, with RSI(14) near 29 in oversold territory.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.1173, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.11541 bounce high would also clear the lower-highs trendline and interrupt the sequence
Failure to hold the 1.11323 week low exposes 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1173 Monday low, near the 50% retrace of the Monday-Tuesday decline, would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 high.
EURUSD has fallen about 90 pips from the 1.12198 weekly open. London drove both legs: Monday's slide to the monday low at 1.1173, and Tuesday's break to 1.1135 as French spread stress and a firm USD data slate (Durable Goods beat) weighed. The NY bounce stalled at a lower high at 1.11541, below EMA(20), and price has since printed a fresh week low at 1.11323 with RSI(14) near 28, holding marginally above its reading at the morning low.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.1173, 1.12198
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.11541 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-high to Tuesday-low leg near 1.1168
Failure to hold the 1.11323 week low exposes the 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Recovery of the 1.1173 monday low would neutralise this week's breakdown; weekly open 1.12198 caps above
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 high; tight consolidation above 1.1135.
EUR/USD has fallen from the 1.1220 weekly open and Monday's 1.1226 week high in two London-led legs. Monday's slide stalled at the 1.1173 Monday low, and Tuesday's London morning break printed the 1.1135 week low as firm US data and French fiscal stress kept EUR heavy. The rebound since then has stalled at a 1.1154 bounce high, short of the 23.6% fib of the week drop, with price below EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 31, while the lower-highs trendline from Monday still caps.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.11729, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1154 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would break the week's sequence and open the 1.1173 Monday low
Failure to hold the 1.1135 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
Lagarde speaking at 17:00 UTC today could jolt the consolidation
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high; tight base after London low.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 Asia high, with NY hours breaking last week's lows on Monday and London extending to a 1.1135 week low this morning as French fiscal stress and a USD rebuilt into FOMC weighed. Since then price has held a 1.1140–1.1154 band below a sloping EMA(20) despite firm US data. The bounce high at 1.1154 sits at the 23.6% retrace and on the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and no divergence at the low.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.1173, 1.12005
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1154 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; Monday low 1.1173 near the 38.2% retrace is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.1135 week low exposes the 1.1100 psych level
Reclaim of 1.1200 prior close would undo this week's breakdown
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC today, FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight range above 1.1135.
EURUSD has slid from the 1.1226 week high set in Monday's Asia session. It printed a lower high at 1.1195 and cut through last week's 1.1184 floor, then Tuesday's London leg set a week low at 1.1135 as a firm USD and renewed French yield pressure extended EUR's five-day losing run. Through the NY session price has held a tight 1.1142–1.1154 range below EMA(20) near 1.1160, with RSI(14) only recovering to the mid-30s. The bounce high sits right at the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1173, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC and could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean is the main test of the lower-highs trendline.
An H1 close above the 1.1154 bounce high and EMA(20) opens the 1.1173 Monday low and the 38.2% fib.
Only a close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 1.1142 range floor and the 1.1135 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number.
The FOMC decision on Wed at 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver for the swing structure.
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, fifth straight down day · RSI 32 · price 1.11427
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 high.
Each rally since Monday's 1.1226 Asia-session high has stalled at a lower high. Monday's NY-open selloff broke last week's 1.1185 floor, and the 1.1195 swing high capped the bounce. A London-session leg today then extended to a 1.1135 week low. The bounce off that low stalled at a 1.1154 lower high, roughly a 20% retrace of the week's drop, with price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) recovering only to ~32. A broad USD bid into FOMC and soft eurozone data (M3 miss, French confidence at 80) frame the move, which leaves the monday low at 1.1173 as overhead resistance.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11541, 1.11732, 1.1195
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1154 lower high and the descending lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the 1.1173 monday low (near the 38.2% fib of the week's drop) opens a retrace toward the 1.1195 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1135 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC today and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu are the larger risks
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off the week low stalling · RSI 32 · price 1.11501
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high.
The weekend gap above Friday's 1.1200 close reversed from the 1.1226 Asia high near the weekly open. London sessions drove both legs of the Monday-to-Tuesday decline, the second reaching the 1.1135 week low at Tuesday's London open as a firm USD into the Fed and French fiscal and energy stress weighed on EUR. Since then price has carved a higher low around 1.1144 and is pressing the descending trendline of lower highs, still below EMA(20) near 1.1161, with RSI(14) recovering to ~32 from sub-20 at the low.
Support: 1.1144, 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1161, 1.1171, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) near 1.1161 would mark the first break in this week's sequence
A recovery into the Monday low near 1.1171, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue leg, tests former support as resistance
Failure to hold the 1.1144 higher low reopens the 1.1135 week low, with the 1.1100 round number below
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk; the weekly open at 1.1220 caps the week's range
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after London extension · RSI 27 · price 1.11455
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 high.
The week opened at 1.1220 and stalled at 1.1226 early Monday. In the first hours of NY Monday the pair broke through last Friday's 1.1184 low, then extended in Tuesday's London session to a 1.1135 week low as French bond stress and pre-FOMC dollar demand persisted. Hourly closes have held below EMA(20), now near 1.1164, since Monday's London session, and each bounce has stalled under it. RSI(14) is near 27, oversold, with ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 1.11352, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11506, 1.1164, 1.1195
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.1150 bounce high and the 1.1164 ema20 would be the first break in this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1135 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number, the key support flagged into Fed and ECB
Recovery into the 50–61.8% fib of the week's slide (1.1181–1.1192), near Monday's NY high at 1.1195, would neutralise the downtrend read
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC and US Durable Goods / Consumer Confidence (12:30 / 14:00 UTC) could shift this read before Wednesday's FOMC
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 26 · price 1.11476
Lower highs and lower lows; fresh week low in early London.
The slide has run since the gap-up weekly open near 1.1220. H1 printed a lower high at 1.1195 in Monday's NY session after the Ifo beat was given back, and closes have held below EMA(20) all of today. The latest leg came in early London: price broke the 1.1160s Asian range to a 1.1135 session low on renewed French bond stress and a firm USD into the Fed. RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, and the 10:00 UTC bounce stalled well short of the Monday low at 1.1173.
Support: 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1135 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
H1 close back above the 1.1173 monday low puts price at the 38.2–50% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday leg; a close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
Lagarde at 17:00 UTC today: a firm December-hike signal could drive a squeeze toward the 1.1220 weekly open
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today, then the Fed on Wed 18:00 UTC and the ECB on Thu 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.1256 peak.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.1256 peak, as soft eurozone PMIs and pre-FOMC dollar demand weighed. Monday faded from the 1.1220 weekly open and accelerated lower in the first hour of NY. Monday closed at its 1.1173 low, and the London open today extended the slide to a 1.1150 day low. Price is below EMA(20) near 1.1169 and below EMA(50), and the declining trendline from Monday's high has capped every bounce; RSI(14) near 23 is oversold with no divergence against the new low.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1140
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1173 Monday low and the declining trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1150 day low exposes the 1.1140 round number
A recovery through the 1.1195 lower high and the 1.1220 weekly open, near 61.8% of the weekly drop, would neutralise the downtrend read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC; any pushback on a December ECB hike could extend the slide
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending into oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.11527
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 Asia high. Price faded the weekend gap above Friday's 1.1200 close and broke the 1.1184–1.1256 midweek range during Monday's NY session, as pre-FOMC dollar buying and French fiscal stress outweighed the Ifo beat. It has stayed below EMA(20) (~1.1172) since, with the Monday low at 1.1173 capping the Asia session. Today's London open pushed to a fresh 1.1150 week low, and RSI(14) near 24 is oversold with no divergence yet against the lower low.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1173 monday low and EMA(20) would pause the lower-highs sequence
A move through the 1.1195 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the week decline, invalidates the lower-highs trendline read
Failure to hold the 1.1150 week low exposes 1.1135, the next support flagged in the macro digest
Recovering the 1.1220 week open would neutralise this week's decline
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC, Conference Board confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could shift this read. The Fed decision Wednesday and the ECB Thursday carry larger event risk.
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, stretched into oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.11595
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday, price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Lower highs and lower lows have formed since Thursday's 1.1256 peak. The week opened at 1.1220, and Monday's London-into-NY leg broke below 1.1200 as pre-FOMC dollar demand built. Monday closed near its low, and the London open today extended the move to a 1.1152 tuesday low. Price holds below EMA(20) near 1.1170 after Monday's NY bounce stalled at a 1.1195 lower high, while RSI(14) near 27 is oversold but printing a higher low than Monday's reading, a mild bullish divergence on the latest leg.
Support: 1.11519, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1195, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1220 weekly open the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.1152 tuesday low exposes the 1.1140-1.1135 next support area
Pullbacks capped at EMA(20) near 1.1170 keep the downtrend structure intact
50% retrace of the Monday-Tuesday leg sits near 1.1189, just under the lower high
US durables 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 GMT today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Stepped lower highs since Thursday; range floor broken Monday.
The week opened with a gap up to 1.1220, but Monday's drop from the 1.1226 high ran through London and into the NY session. It broke the 1.1184–1.1255 range that held Thursday and Friday, as pre-FOMC dollar buying and French fiscal stress erased the Ifo/Moody's lift. The bounce stalled at a 1.1195 lower high, and the Asia session pushed through the 1.1173 Monday low to fresh week lows near 1.1158. Price is pinned below EMA(20) with RSI(14) in oversold territory and is now approaching the 1.1150 round number.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1173 Monday low and the lower-highs trendline would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1150 round number exposes the 1.1135–1.1140 support zone
A reclaim of the 1.1195 lower high (~38.2–50% of Monday's drop) would break the lower-high sequence
Lagarde speaks at 17:00 UTC; any pushback on a December hike could extend the move, hawkish tone could trigger a bounce
Wednesday's FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekly open at 1.1220 caps the structure; reclaiming it neutralises the week's decline
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday open · RSI 32 · price 1.11659
Lower highs and lower lows, grinding below EMA(20) at fresh week low.
Lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 open-hour high. The Ifo-driven lift to 1.1216 faded through London, a 40-pip leg followed into the NY open, and pre-FOMC dollar demand then extended the slide below the 1.1170 range floor to a 1.1162 week low in Asia. EMA(20) near 1.1174 has capped every bounce since the 1.1195 swing high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the Monday drop. RSI(14) at 32 is holding a higher low against the deeper NY-open trough, a bullish divergence that comes as hourly ranges contract.
Support: 1.11624, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1195, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1174 ema20 and the 1.1170 range floor would ease the breakdown read
A break of the lower-highs trendline and a close above the 1.1195 swing high would neutralise the Monday drop; the 1.1220 weekly open is the next reference above
Failure to hold the 1.1162 week low leaves the 1.1150 round number as the next reference
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk for the week's structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 1.1256 peak; last week's lows broken.
Lower highs have stepped down from Thursday's 1.1256 peak, with the Thursday-to-Tuesday decline making successive lows into Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 1.1162. Monday's gap open at the 1.1220 weekly open was sold through London as the Ifo beat faded on pre-FOMC USD demand. Price then cut through last week's 1.1184 lows into the NY session, and the 1.1195 lower high capped the NY bounce. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1179, which capped the late-Monday drift, with RSI(14) near 37, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1179, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1195 lower high (38.2% of the Thursday-to-Tuesday decline) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1162 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1179 would put the former 1.1170–1.1180 floor back in play
US durable goods 12:30 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC today could shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially reset the read; the 1.1220 weekly open is the upper reference
Lower highs since Monday's week high; Friday low broken, Asia extending to fresh week low.
The week opened with a gap up to 1.1220. Price peaked at the 1.1226 week high early Monday, and the Ifo beat and Moody's relief bounce was sold within hours. The NY session drove the decisive leg through last week's friday low at 1.1184 on the pre-FOMC USD bid, then the 1.1195 lower high capped the rebound and Asia extended to a 1.1162 week low. Price sits below both EMAs with the EMA(20) near 1.1178 capping drifts. RSI(14) near 31 is holding a higher low versus Monday's NY trough while price printed a lower low.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1195, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1184 friday low would turn the broken level into a contested pivot
H1 close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the trendline read
Failure to hold the 1.1162 week low confirms a lower low and exposes 1.1150 psych
ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) today; December-hike tone could shift the read
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could materially extend or unwind the USD-driven leg
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.11703
Lower highs since Monday open; Friday floor broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 early-session top. The Ifo-led London bounce to 1.1216 was faded in NY as pre-FOMC dollar demand broke the friday low at 1.1184, and the late-Monday recovery stalled at the 50% fib of the monday drop near 1.1195 for another lower high. Asia then extended to the asia low at 1.1162, leaving price capped under the monday low at 1.1173, below both EMA(20) near 1.1180 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38 and no divergence, and the 1.1150 round number as the next reference below.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1184, 1.1195
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the friday low at 1.1184 and EMA(20) would ease the breakdown read
A break of the 1.1195 lower high and the descending lower highs trendline would negate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the asia low at 1.1162 extends lower lows toward the 1.1150 round number
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's weekly open.
EUR/USD has carved lower highs and lower lows since Monday's weekly open at 1.1220. The Ifo-driven pop to 1.1216 was rejected in London, and the heaviest leg of Monday's decline came into the NY open as pre-FOMC dollar demand built. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1195, a fresh lower high, and price has since tracked below EMA(20) near 1.1180 before Asia printed a new week low at 1.1162, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and short of oversold.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1195 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence since Monday
Loss of the 1.1162 week low leaves the 1.1150 round number as the next reference
Repeated H1 closes above EMA(20) at 1.1180 would mark the first change in the grind lower
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC could shift this read, with FOMC Wednesday 18:00 UTC the larger risk
A reclaim of the 1.1220 weekly open would fully retrace Monday's decline
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Thursday · RSI 32 · price 1.1171
Descending sequence; Monday's weekly-open gap fully faded, price pinned at week low.
EUR/USD gapped up to the 1.1220 weekly open on the Moody's France reprieve. Monday's Ifo beat failed to extend it, and the London session sold the pair steadily into the first hour of NY as pre-FOMC dollar buying took over. Monday's sell-off ran to 1.1173 before a NY bounce stalled at a 1.1195 lower high, extending the descending trendline of lower highs from Thursday's 1.1256 peak, with price now below the ema20 near 1.1185 and RSI(14) around 32. Price is sitting on the week low at 1.1171 through the Asian range, with the 1.1150 round number the next reference below.
Support: 1.1171, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 and the 1.1195 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1171 week low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.1150 round number next
Recovery to the 1.1220 weekly open would fully retrace Monday's sell-off
US Durables 12:30 UTC, Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:00 UTC today could shift this read
FOMC Wednesday and ECB Thursday are the larger event risks for this structure
Lower highs from Monday's weekly open; Friday low broken in NY session.
The Monday gap above Friday's close faded from the weekly open at 1.1220 as pre-FOMC dollar buying swamped the Ifo beat. London started the slide and NY extended it through the Friday low at 1.1184. The lone NY-session bounce stalled at 1.1195 (ny high), near the 38.2% of the Monday drop fib, leaving a clean series of lower highs. Price is pinned just above the 1.1172 week low in a thin Asian range, below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 35 and no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 1.11717, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11844, 1.1195, 1.12198
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1184 friday low would turn the range break into a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1172 week low exposes the 1.1150 round number
A move through the 1.1195 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the weekly open
ECB Bank Lending Survey (09:00 UTC), US durables (12:30 UTC) and Lagarde (17:00 UTC) today could shift this read
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the key catalyst for the week's structure