Lower highs have stacked since the 1.1269 mid-month peak (1.1260, 1.1256, then 1.1226). This week's five-day slide broke the 1.1187 range floor and is now pressing the 1.1113 swing low, on French fiscal stress, soft PMIs and a pre-FOMC USD bid. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI oversold. ATR(14) near 17 pips points to a steady grind rather than an expanding sell-off.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11511, 1.11873, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Recovery back above the 1.1187 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
1.1151 prior low is the first area to watch for rejection or break on any bounce
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC: a December hike hint versus a dovish lean
Lower-high trendline and the 1.1226 lower high cap the structure; the 61.8% fib sits just below at ~1.1218
Lower-high sequence since the 1.1269 mid-month peak, through 1.1260 and the 1.1226 lower high, gave way this week to a break of the 1.1184-1.1260 range floor. EUR is on a fifth straight loss on French fiscal stress, broad flash PMI misses and a firm USD into the FOMC. Price trades below both EMAs with RSI near 32, and the swing low at 1.1135 now sits just above the window low at 1.1113. ATR(14) is near 17 pips, modest against the early-month swings, so the slide is grinding rather than expanding.
Support: 1.11352, 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11511, 1.1185, 1.12263
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now (17:00 UTC), Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC can each materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 1.1185 range floor would negate the breakdown read
Failure to reclaim the 1.1151 prior low keeps it acting as overhead supply
H4 close below the 1.1113 window low exposes the 1.1100 round number
A break above the 1.1226 lower high and trendline would end the lower-high sequence
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, range floor lost · RSI 31 · price 1.11453
Lower highs from 1.1380; 1.1180-1.1260 range broken lower.
Lower highs have held since the 1.1380 early-window top. The ten-day 1.1180-1.1260 range gave way this week as flash PMI misses and French fiscal stress weighed on EUR while USD firmed into the FOMC, and the bounce off Monday's Ifo beat stalled at a lower high near 1.1226. Price has a recent low at 1.1135 and is pressing toward the 1.1113 swing low, below both EMAs with RSI near 31, while ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 20 pips against much wider ranges earlier in the window.
Support: 1.1135, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1226, 1.1260
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and brings the 1.1100 round number into play
Recovery back above the 1.1180 range floor would mark the break as a false break and shift the read back to range
Lower-highs trendline from 1.1276 caps near 1.1255, just under the 1.1260 range top
Lagarde speech in ~4h, the Fed decision Wednesday and the ECB decision Thursday could materially shift this read
Price is near the 79% retracement of the 1.1113-1.1269 rally, so a failure to hold there would leave little of that rally intact
09:02 UTC
Downtrend within a range, lower highs building · RSI 32 · price 1.11599
Lower highs off 1.1269, pressing the 1.1151 swing low.
EUR/USD has printed a run of lower highs since the 1.1269 range top. The descending line through those highs sits near 1.1220, and price is now pressing the 1.1151 swing low after Friday's flash PMI misses and French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 20 under the 50, while ATR(14) near 19 pips is well below early-window readings. The rally from the 1.1113 range low is now about 70% retraced on the rally fib, leaving a compressed market sitting on its lower edge.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1226, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1151 swing low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1113 range low
Recovery above 1.1185 prior lows, then the 1.1226 lower high and trendline, would break the lower-highs sequence
A close above the 1.1269 range top invalidates the descending read
Lagarde today 17:00 UTC, Fed Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
1.1113-1.1276 range with descending highs, price at lower half.
Three weeks of two-way trade between the 1.1113 range floor and the 1.1276 range cap, with each rally since then topping lower along a descending trendline, now near 1.1256, and this week's high capped at 1.1226. Price has slipped below both EMAs and sits on the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1113-1.1269 swing, just above the 1.1162 fresh low, as EUR stays heavy on the October PMI misses and France risk premium while USD firms into the Fed. ATR(14) has compressed to about 19 pips, well below the 40-80 pip bars at the start of the window.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1226, 1.1256, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1151 prior low exposes the 1.1113 range floor
Recovery through the 1.1226 week high and the trendline near 1.1256 would break the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1276 range cap
Holding the 1.1162 fresh low keeps the 61.8% fib as a defended level within the range
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC can expand ATR out of the current compression
Lagarde speech today 17:00 UTC could shift the read near the 1.1170 floor
01:02 UTC
Range giving way lower, lower highs since early Oct · RSI 36 · price 1.11743
Lower highs inside a 1.1180-1.1270 range; floor now under test.
Since the 1.1269 high, EURUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs at 1.1260 and 1.1256 while holding a 1.1180 range floor. That floor gave way this week as the USD firmed into FOMC and the Ifo beat was sold. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the rally from the 1.1113 oct low, below both EMAs with ema20 rolling under EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 19 pips from 30+ earlier in the window, so the break below the floor is still shallow.
Support: 1.11725, 1.11511, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.1181, 1.1205, 1.1258
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1180 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.1172 exposes the 1.1151 swing low, then the 1.1113 oct low
Recovery through ema20 near 1.1205 and the 1.1258 lower highs trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; US Durables today 12:30 UTC