Multi-week range 1.1113–1.1269 with lower highs; equal lows at 1.1113.
EURUSD has held a 1.1113–1.1269 range since mid-month, but the swing highs keep stepping lower. The leg down from the 1.1226 swing high retested the 1.1113 yearly low almost to the pip, leaving a double-bottom candidate. The USD dip after Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser lifted price back above ema20, though it sits below the ~1.1190 prior floor, which is also where EMA50 is located. ATR(14) expanded on the post-Fed bar after a quiet stretch near the lows. The double bottom stays unconfirmed while price trades below the range top.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1226, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.1190 prior floor and EMA50 would reopen the 1.1226 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1113 yearly low voids the double bottom and confirms a lower low
Loss of ema20 near 1.1152 would mark the post-Fed bounce as fading
A break of the lower-highs trendline from 1.1269 is needed to revive the range top
US core PCE/Q3 GDP (Thu 12:30 UTC) and the ECB decision plus Lagarde presser (13:15/13:45 GMT) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at the yearly low · RSI 30 · price 1.11388
Lower highs below a broken two-week range floor.
Lower highs from 1.1256 down to the 1.1226 lower high forced a break of the 1.1185–1.1270 range floor. That carried EURUSD back to the 1.1113 yearly low, which matches the mid-month swing low, and a small bounce now faces the broken prior low at 1.1152. EMA20 is below EMA50 with price under both, RSI sits near 30 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips. That is a steady grind lower driven by French fiscal stress, soft EZ flash PMIs and a hawkish-Fed premium.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1185, 1.1226
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 GMT today and the ECB on Thu 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.1113 yearly low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Recovery through the 1.1152 prior low and the 50% fib near 1.1170 tests the falling lower-highs trendline
H4 close back above the 1.1185 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Lower highs since early October, retest of 1.1113 low.
EURUSD has carved a sequence of lower highs since the 1.1276 early-October peak, with the latest lower high at 1.1226 giving way to a steady 113-pip leg down that is now retesting the 1.1113 yearly low. The slide reflects the widening Fed-ECB policy gap and last week's soft eurozone PMI misses. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near oversold. The prior low at 1.1151 and the fib 50% at 1.1184 cap the first recovery attempts.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1184, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 yearly low confirms a fresh lower-low and opens the 1.1100 round number
Recovery back above the 1.1151 prior low would mark a failed break of the yearly low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today and Warsh's press conference could materially shift this read; a dovish December signal may trigger a squeeze from oversold levels
ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT is the next event risk; only a sustained move above the 1.1226 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
Range floor broken; lower highs, retesting 1.1113 swing low.
EURUSD broke the 1.1182-1.1260 range floor this week. The slide from the 1.1226 week high has carried price back to the 1.1113 early-month swing low, with lower highs in place since the 1.1256 mid-month top and price below both EMAs, EMA20 under EMA50. French fiscal stress and soft PMIs weighed on EUR while USD held firm into the FOMC. RSI near 27 is oversold and ATR(14) has eased to about 16 pips as the selloff loses pace at the low.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.1182, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 swing low and the 1.1100 round number confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Recovery through the 1.1155 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, points to a relief bounce from oversold
Return above the 1.1182 range floor, near the 61.8% fib, negates the range break
Fed decision 18:00 UTC today and Warsh at 18:30 could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC and US PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are further event risk at the swing low
05:02 UTC
Downtrend inside a range, oversold at the floor · RSI 24 · price 1.1122
Lower highs since 1.1269; price back at the 1.1113 range floor.
EURUSD has held a 1.1113–1.1270 range for three weeks, but the lower highs at 1.1269, 1.1256 and 1.1226 have pushed price back to the range floor. The five-day slide follows broad EZ flash PMI misses, French fiscal stress and a firm USD. EMA20 sits below EMA50 and RSI is oversold near 24. ATR(14) at roughly 17 pips is low for this range, which leaves the floor exposed to event-driven expansion. The 1.1152 prior low and the 50% fib of the 1.1226 decline near 1.1173 form the first resistance overhead.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1173, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 range floor and the 1.1100 round number confirms a range break and a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.1152 prior low would mark the floor as holding; above the 50% fib at 1.1173, the lower high at 1.1226 comes back into view
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC: a December hike kept live vs a non-committal tone is the next swing factor for the range floor
A break of the lower highs trendline would neutralise the descending structure
Lower highs from 1.1269; range floor lost, swing low under test.
Highs have stepped lower since the 1.1269 mid-month peak, from 1.1260 to 1.1256 and then the 1.1226 lower high. This week the 1.1173 range floor and the 1.1152 prior lows gave way, after soft HCOB PMIs and a firm USD into FOMC. Price is now pressing the 1.1113 swing low with RSI oversold near 28 and price below both EMAs, EMA20 under EMA50. ATR(14) near 17 pips is contained, so the slide is grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1173, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1113 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Recovery back above the 1.1173 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.1152 prior lows or the fib 50% at 1.1195 would ease the downtrend read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC: a firm December-hike signal has squeeze potential from oversold levels
A move through the lower-high line, or above 1.1226, breaks the lower-high sequence