21:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near yearly low · RSI 38 · price 1.1128
LH/LL chain since August high; three-week range 1.1113–1.1270 at the lows.
EUR/USD has carried a lower-high, lower-low chain since the 21 August peak near 1.1711, with the mid-September break under 1.1520 feeding a slide into early October. For roughly three weeks price has held a 1.1113–1.1270 range, and this week's sessions pressed back toward the yearly low as USD firmed into the FOMC and eurozone flash PMIs missed across the board. Price sits below a falling EMA(50), and RSI near 38 is soft but not oversold, leaving room on both sides of the range.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1410
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1113 yearly low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 1.1100 round number in view
- Daily close above the 1.1269 range high would mark the first higher high since August, with the 1.1410 sep high next
- ECB decision and Lagarde presser plus US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thursday could materially shift this read
- Failure to hold the range floor after a post-Fed USD dip would point to the downtrend reasserting