Lower-high sequence broken on FOMC spike; higher low above 1.1113.
The week opened near 1.1220 and sold off steadily through Monday and Tuesday's London sessions. French spread stress and a firm dollar carried price to a 1.1113 week low around Wednesday's London open. Warsh's presser after the Fed hold drove a 47-pip FOMC bar that broke the lower-high trendline and tagged 1.1169, the fomc high, near the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Upper wicks there capped price back below the fib 38.2 at 1.1156. Price now holds above both EMA(20) at 1.1142 and EMA(50) at 1.1148 for the first time this week, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1142, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1169, 1.1195
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 fomc high and 50% retracement opens 1.1195, Monday's lower high
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.1142 and the rising support from the week low returns focus to 1.1113
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT, then the ECB decision at 13:15 and Lagarde at 13:45 Thursday, could materially shift this read
Mon–Tue lower highs; Wed higher lows and first higher high.
London-led selling on Monday and Tuesday carved lower highs from the 1.1226 week high down to a 1.1113 week low at Wednesday's London open. That came on firm USD and French fiscal stress. The Fed bar then swept the 1.1122 fed low before Warsh's 'tightening is working' remarks lifted EUR/USD to a 1.1169 fed high, almost exactly the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Price now holds above EMA(20) at 1.1141 and Tuesday's 1.1150 range top, with RSI(14) near 60 and upper wicks capping 1.1165–1.1169.
Support: 1.1141, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 fed high and 50% retracement opens the path toward the 1.1220 week open
Loss of the ema20 near 1.1141 and the Wednesday higher-lows line returns focus to the 1.1122 fed low
Break of the 1.1113 week low would confirm a fresh lower-low and resume the week's downtrend
US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT Thursday, followed by the Lagarde presser, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday broken; higher lows off 1.1113.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 week high. London sessions drove each leg down to a 1.1113 week low early Wednesday. Warsh's Fed presser sold the dollar and produced a spike off the 1.1122 fed low to a 1.1169 post-fed high, which stalled at the 50% fib of the week's drop. Price is now retesting Tuesday's 1.1154 high at 1.1153, holding above EMA(20) near 1.1139 and only marginally above EMA(50) around 1.1146, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1139, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1195, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 post-fed high and 50% fib opens the 1.1195 swing high
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.1139 and the higher lows line returns focus to the 1.1122 fed low
Break of the 1.1113 week low resumes the lower highs sequence of the downtrend
US core PCE/Q3 GDP (12:30 UTC Thu) and ECB decision plus Lagarde (13:15/13:45 GMT) could materially shift this read
First higher high since Monday; retracing to 50% of the week's drop.
The week's drop from Monday's 1.1226 week high was London-led on Monday and Tuesday on broad USD strength and French spread stress, bottoming at the 1.1113 week low into Wednesday's London open. Warsh's post-FOMC remarks sold the dollar during NY hours, lifting price through the downtrend line and the 1.1152 prior high to a 1.1169 FOMC high, almost exactly the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 1.1140 and EMA(50) for the first time since Monday, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR expanded on the decision bars.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1140, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1195, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 FOMC high and 50% fib opens Monday NY's 1.1195 lower high, with the 1.1226 week high above
Slip back below the 1.1152 prior high and ema20 near 1.1140 would frame the move as a retracement within the downtrend
Break of Wednesday's higher lows and a close under the 1.1113 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, then the ECB decision at 13:15 and Lagarde at 13:45 Thursday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; higher lows Wednesday, FOMC spike capped at 50% fib.
EUR/USD has ground lower since Monday's Asia high at 1.1226. London-session breaks on Monday and Tuesday carried it to a yearly low at 1.1113 at Wednesday's London open, on broad USD strength. Higher lows through Wednesday lifted price above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering to ~61 from sub-30. The FOMC hold bar then spiked through the prior high at 1.1154 to a fomc high of 1.1169, the 50% retracement of the week's drop, before fading back to 1.1150 as Warsh's presser framed tightening as 'starting to work'.
Support: 1.1137, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1169, 1.1195
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fomc high at 1.1169 (50% fib) opens 1.1183 (61.8%) and the monday high at 1.1195
Failure to hold above the prior high at 1.1154 keeps the FOMC spike reading as a rejection
Loss of ema20 near 1.1137, then the fomc low at 1.1122, breaks the higher lows and puts the yearly low at 1.1113 back in play
Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE and the 13:15 UTC ECB decision could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 high; Wednesday rebound capped near EMA(50).
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 week high, with London sessions driving both the Monday and Tuesday legs as French fiscal stress and firm Fed hike pricing weighed on the euro. Wednesday's London open set the 1.1113 week low, also the yearly low, before a short-covering rebound reclaimed EMA(20) and ran to the 1.1152 wed high. That high sits just under the 38.2% fib of the week fib, where supply capped the move around EMA(50) into the Fed decision. RSI(14) has recovered to ~52 from oversold, so the bounce so far reads as a retracement inside the downtrend rather than a structure change.
Support: 1.1130, 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1152, 1.1173
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1152 wed high and EMA(50) opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1156 and the 1.1173 monday low, which would test the lower-high sequence
Loss of EMA(20) and the rebound line near 1.1130 exposes the 1.1121 tuesday low and 1.1113 week low; a break below confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed decision this hour and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PCE (Thu 12:30 UTC) and the ECB decision (Thu 13:15 GMT) are the next event risks for the structure
Lower highs from 1.1226; higher lows off 1.1113 year low.
The week's dominant move was a ~113-pip slide from Monday's 1.1226 high, led by Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London session on hawkish Fed pricing and French fiscal stress, ending at a 1.1113 year low around Wednesday's London open. Since then a run of higher lows along the rebound trendline has lifted price back above EMA(20) and through the lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 66. Price is now pressing the 38.2% fib near 1.1156, which sits just above Tuesday's high at 1.1154 and below EMA(50) around 1.1160. That cluster caps the recovery for now.
Support: 1.1133, 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1160, 1.1174
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bars
H1 close above EMA(50) at 1.1160 and the 1.1174 Monday low would turn the rebound into a challenge of the lower-high structure
Break of the rebound trendline and EMA(20) at 1.1133 would leave the 1.1121 Tue NY low and 1.1113 year low exposed
ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled risk to the week's structure
Lower highs and lows Mon–Tue; higher lows since Wednesday's London open.
From the 1.1220 weekly open, selling drove a stair-step decline through Monday's London and NY sessions and Tuesday's London session. French fiscal stress and the hawkish Fed path pushed EUR/USD to a 1.1113 week low, a 17-month low, at Wednesday's London open. Since then the pair has printed higher lows into the NY session and reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.1131, with RSI(14) recovering to around 61. Price is now pressing the 23.6% fib near 1.1140, with EMA(50) at 1.1146 and the Tuesday high at 1.1154 directly overhead.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1146, 1.1154, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 GMT and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 could materially shift this read; the ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT follows
An H1 close above the 1.1154 Tuesday high (38.2% fib zone) breaks the lower-high sequence from Monday
Losing EMA(20) and the Wednesday higher-low trendline exposes the 1.1113 week low; a break there opens the path to the 1.1100 round number
Recovery toward the 1.1220 weekly open would mean the entire Monday–Tuesday leg has been retraced
Lower highs since Monday open; higher lows since today's London open.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the week opened at 1.1220. Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London open drove the slide to a 1.1113 week low at today's London open, on French fiscal stress and firm US data. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.1131 and RSI(14) has recovered from the low-20s to ~49, forming a flag-like bounce along a rising trendline that is capped by the 1.1138 day high, just under the 23.6% retracement; Tuesday's high near the 38.2% fib at 1.1155 and the Monday low at 1.1173 define the lower-high sequence above.
Support: 1.1124, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1138, 1.1155, 1.1173
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1155 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1173 Monday low in play
Loss of the 1.1124 pullback low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.1113 week low and 1.1100 round number
Fed decision 18:00 GMT and Warsh press conference 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT and US core PCE Thu 12:30 GMT are the next event risks
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 peak; Wednesday higher lows off 1.1113.
EUR/USD has fallen about 110 pips from the 1.1220 weekly open. The drop ran from Monday's 1.1226 high through Monday's NY session, and Tuesday's London open broke 1.1135 on broad USD strength, wider OAT–Bund spreads and higher oil. A week low printed at 1.1113 during Wednesday's Asia session. Higher lows through London have lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.1128. The bounce stalled at 1.1138–1.1139, which is Tuesday's late-NY high and the 23.6% fib of the week's decline, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-50s. Price remains below EMA(50) ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1128, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1139, 1.1155, 1.1171
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 23.6% fib at 1.1139 opens the 38.2% fib at 1.1155, with the broken monday low near 1.1171 above
Loss of the wed higher lows and a close back below ema20 at 1.1128 puts the 1.1113 week low back in focus, then the 1.1100 round number
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a softer December signal has more room to move price than a reaffirmation
Thu US PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC land inside the next session window
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, early-stage rebound off yearly low.
The week opened near 1.1220 and supply capped Monday's Asia high at 1.1226, and the pair then printed lower highs through Monday and Tuesday. London drove Tuesday's break through the mon low at 1.1173 on broad USD strength into the Fed, and Tuesday's NY session left the tue highs at 1.1153–1.1154. A slow Wednesday grind set the yearly low at 1.1113 around London open on weaker RSI(14) downside momentum. Price has since reclaimed the H1 ema20 near 1.1128, with the wed high at 1.1137 sitting just under the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 1.11275, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11366, 1.11541, 1.11732
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close above the tue highs at 1.1154 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib zone toward the mon low at 1.1173
Failure at the wed high / 23.6% fib with a slip back below the ema20 keeps the rebound line and the yearly low at 1.1113 in focus
Break of the rebound line and a close below the 1.1113 yearly low confirms a fresh lower-low toward 1.1095
ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT is the next scheduled risk to the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, now basing above the yearly low.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 110 pips since Monday's gap-higher open at 1.1220. Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London session drove the lower-high sequence as broad USD strength, wider French spreads and $100 oil weighed. Today's London open printed a 1.1113 yearly low that drew immediate demand, and RSI(14) has made higher lows (about 15, then 24) against lower price lows, a bullish divergence. Price is now pinned at EMA(20), just under the 1.1132 day high, and has drifted above the lower-high line drawn from Monday's NY high. EMA(50) at 1.1148 and the 38.2% fib of the weekly drop near 1.1156 frame the next overhead area, while the yearly low and the 1.1100 round number mark the floor.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11483, 1.11561
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1132 day high and EMA(50) at 1.1148 would extend the divergence-led bounce toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1156
Failure to hold the 1.1113 yearly low on a closing basis resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC Thursday are the next event risks for this structure
Lower highs from weekly open; tight base above 1.1113.
EURUSD has lost about 114 pips since the weekly open at 1.1220. The decline was driven by broad USD strength into the Fed and by French spread widening. Monday's London-NY sessions and Tuesday's London open did the heavy lifting, with Tuesday's range top at 1.1154 capping NY. Early European hours today tagged a week low at 1.1113, just above the yearly low, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1129 session high, back under EMA(20). RSI(14) is near 43 and holds a higher low versus Tuesday's washout, so the lower-highs line is flattening and downside momentum is fading.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11541, 1.12198
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1113 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1129 session high and the lower-highs line would shift the read toward a basing range
Reclaim of the 1.1154 range top (38.2% fib zone) would mark a deeper short-covering bounce
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Thu 13:15 UTC and US PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are the next event risks
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; small base above 1.1113.
Since Monday's 1.1226 high, the pair has printed a lower-high sequence at 1.1195, the 1.1154 Tue high and the 1.1138 lower high. Tuesday's London session drove the largest leg as a firm USD and wider French spreads kept EUR offered. Wednesday's London open set a 1.1113 week low at the yearly low, with RSI(14) dipping to ~26. The bounce from there has stalled at EMA(20) near 1.1130, while the lower-high line from Monday has flattened as Asia drifted sideways.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1130, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1138 lower high, which also sits at the 23.6% retracement of the week decline, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1154 Tue high in view
Repeated rejection at the 1.1130 ema20 keeps the downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 1.1113 week low exposes the 1.1100 round number
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's US PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC are the next event risk
Lower highs from Monday, tight base 1.1113-1.1132 since Tuesday evening.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 week high. London sessions on Monday and Tuesday drove the legs lower as French fiscal stress and a firm pre-Fed dollar weighed. Momentum has faded since Tuesday evening: price has ranged 1.1113–1.1132 and drifted above the descending lower-high line, and the London-open dip to a fresh week low at 1.1113 met rejection back toward EMA(20) near 1.1129. RSI(14) sits near 39, with the Tue high at 1.1138 (23.6% of the week drop fib) and the 1.1154 swing high above.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.1113 week low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number and the 1.1095 support zone
Sustained trade above ema20 and a close above the 1.1138 Tue high would test the 1.1154 swing high and challenge the lower-high structure
US PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC on Thursday are the next event risks for this structure
Lower highs since Monday, now a tight range above 1.1113.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 high, which came soon after the gap-up weekly open at 1.1220. London drove Tuesday's leg to 1.1135 as a firmer USD and French spread stress weighed, and late NY drift then took price to the low 1.1120s. Since then the decline has stalled in a 1.1113–1.1132 range below EMA(20), with price edging above the lower-highs line. RSI(14) near 36 is holding above Tuesday's trough even as London open set a fresh week low at 1.1113.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11541, 1.12198
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
H1 close below the week low at 1.1113 and the 1.1100 round number extends the lower-low sequence and voids the divergence
Close above the 1.1132 range top and EMA(20) opens Tuesday's 1.1154 lower high, close to the 38.2% fib of the week's decline
Recovery through Monday's 1.1195 lower high toward the 1.1220 weekly open breaks the week's lower-high structure
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC is the next scheduled risk for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.12263 high.
EUR/USD has stepped lower since the 1.12263 week high in Monday's Asia session. The heaviest legs came into Monday's NY open and during Tuesday's London session, as French spread stress and a firm USD ahead of the FOMC kept pressure on. Price now sits at the week low near 1.1113, below the EMA(20) at ~1.1125 with RSI(14) oversold near 27, while Wednesday's Asian high at 1.1132 and the lower-highs trendline cap the drift. The Tuesday bounce stalled at 1.1154, the 38.2% fib of the week's slide.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100, 1.1095
Resistance: 1.1125, 1.11317, 1.11541
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC, with the 1.1100 round number and 1.1095 support zone as the next reference below
H1 close above the 1.1132 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the stair-step sequence
Failure to hold the week low and 1.1100 confirms a fresh lower-low extension
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1154 would mark the first meaningful retracement of the week's slide
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high, compressing in a tight Asian range.
EUR/USD has carved lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 week high, with London and NY hours on Monday and Tuesday driving the selloff as French fiscal stress and a firm USD ahead of the Fed kept the pair offered. Price has held below EMA(20) since Monday's London session and is now pressing the lower-highs trendline in a narrow Asian range just above the week low at 1.1117. RSI(14) near 30 sits above Tuesday's London reading despite the lower low, a bullish divergence above the 1.1100 round number.
Support: 1.1117, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1154, 1.1171
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the ema20 near 1.1132 and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in this week's sequence
Recovery through the tue high at 1.1154 opens the 50% fib of the week's drop at 1.1171
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1117 exposes the 1.1100 round number
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC is the next event risk after the Fed
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 high; Asia range compressing at 1.1120.
EUR/USD has shed about 105 pips from Monday's 1.1226 high just above the weekly open. Each leg came in NY hours: Monday afternoon, then the London-NY transition and late NY on Tuesday, as French fiscal stress and a firm USD kept EUR offered. Price has capped below EMA(20) on every bounce and is now flatlining in a 12-pip Asian range at 1.1120, just above the 1.1113 key support, with the descending trendline meeting price. RSI(14) is holding near 31 against a lower price low than Tuesday's 1.1135 flush, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1154, 1.1220
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
H1 close above the descending trendline and ema20 (~1.1129) would break the lower-high sequence, with the tue high at 1.1154 near the 38.2% fib next
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC is the second event risk; a return to the weekly open at 1.1220 would negate the week's slide
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Asian range compressing above week low.
EUR/USD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at 1.1226. The heaviest selling came during London and the early NY session on Monday and Tuesday, as French bond stress and firm US data kept the euro offered. Price has held below EMA20 since Tuesday's London break, and the Asian range is now compressing just above the 1.1120 week low, with RSI(14) near 29 printing a higher low against Tuesday's London trough even as price set fresh lows.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1131, 1.1154, 1.1173
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1120 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1154 tue bounce high breaks the sequence, opening the 50% fib of Monday's slide at 1.1173
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC is a second event risk inside the next 36h
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high; tight Asian range at the week low.
Lower highs have stepped down from Monday's 1.1226 high. The two main legs came during the London session on Monday and Tuesday, as French fiscal stress and firm US durables kept EUR offered, and price has stayed below EMA(20) on every bounce. Asia has compressed into a 1.1120–1.1132 range at the week low and is pressing the lower-highs trendline, while RSI(14) near 32 has printed a higher low against Tuesday's 1.1135 low, a bullish divergence. Overhead, EMA(20) sits near 1.1138, followed by the Tue high at 1.1154 and the fib 50% of the week's 1.1226–1.1120 leg at 1.1173, which aligns with Monday's low.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11375, 1.11541, 1.1173
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1120 week low and 1.1113 key support extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
H1 close above the 1.1154 Tue high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1173 fib 50% is the next reference
ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC is a second event risk for the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high, compressing at week low.
EUR/USD has posted a ~107-pip decline from Monday's 1.1226 week high, which came after the Sunday gap up. London sessions drove the legs lower on Monday and Tuesday as French spread stress and pre-Fed dollar demand weighed, and every bounce has stalled under a descending trendline of lower highs, with price now held below the EMA(20) near 1.1133. RSI(14) is oversold near 26 but reads higher than at Tuesday's 1.1135 London low, a bullish divergence, as price sits at the week low near 1.1120 just above 1.1113 key support.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1133, 1.1154, 1.1173
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1154 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the decline's 50% fib at 1.1173 sits above
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 1.1133 would end the trendline compression
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
German GfK Wed 07:00 UTC and ECB decision Thu 13:15 UTC are further event risk for the week low
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1226 high.
EURUSD has shed about 95 pips from Monday's 1.1220 weekly open, printing a lower high at 1.1195 and another at 1.1154. The heaviest leg came in Tuesday's London session through the tue low at 1.1135, as French fiscal stress and a pre-Fed USD bid weighed. Late NY extended to a week low at 1.1121, but RSI(14) holds a higher low near 34 versus Tuesday morning's trough, a bullish divergence. Price trades below EMA(20), which sits close to the 1.1135 area, with the 1.1113 key support and 1.1100 round number just beneath.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1135, 1.1154, 1.1174
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1154 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 50% / monday low near 1.1174
Failure to hold the 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
Rejection at the 1.1135 tue low, now near EMA(20), would keep the downtrend structure intact
German GfK at 07:00 UTC is the early-session data risk