False break of 1.1113 lows, higher high above 1.1169.
EUR/USD sold off from Monday's 1.1226 week high in a run of lower highs along a falling trendline, until the Fed bar on Wednesday broke it and set the Wed high at 1.1169. Thursday's ECB hold and the firm US GDP print drove a false break to a 1.1104 week low during the NY morning, but that bar reversed sharply and NY hours carried price to a 1.1185 day high, back above the ema20 (~1.1158) and EMA50. RSI(14) is near 66, with price testing the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline just under the Monday high at 1.1195.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1158, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1195, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Wed high at 1.1169 and the ema20 near 1.1158 would mark the rebound as a failed breakout
Clearance of the day high 1.1185 and the Monday high 1.1195 opens the path to the week high 1.1226
Loss of the week low 1.1104 resumes the lower-low sequence and negates the false break read
EZ flash GDP/CPI (05:30–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, sharp reversal off week low · RSI 65 · price 1.11789
EURUSD bled lower from Monday's 1.1226 week high in a sequence of lower highs, and the Wednesday Fed spike to 1.1169 faded. During Thursday's NY session the hot US GDP data and in-line PCE drove a flush to a 1.1104 week low (a 17-month low), but price reversed, cleared the falling trendline and the wed high, and printed a 1.1185 thu high. Price now sits above EMA(20) at the 61.8% level of the week fib, with RSI(14) near 65 and the lower high at 1.1195 directly overhead.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1157, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1195, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1169 wed high turns Thursday's breakout into a failed one and puts the ema20 near 1.1157 in play
Close above the 1.1195 lower high opens the path toward the 1.1226 week high
Loss of the 1.1104 week low would resume the Monday–Wednesday downtrend
Friday's EZ GDP/HICP (05:30–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, sharp reversal from Thursday's low · RSI 67 · price 1.11805
Lower highs and lows into Thursday, then false break to 1.1104 and a higher high above 1.1169.
The week opened near 1.1220 and sold off through Monday's London and NY sessions, then printed successive lower lows into Wednesday's London open at 1.1113. Thursday's US GDP/PCE and ECB-hold hour produced a false break to a 17-month low at 1.1104 on a higher RSI(14) reading than Wednesday's low. The recovery has since cleared the Wed high at 1.1169 and the falling lower-highs line, and price now sits above EMA(20) near 1.1153 and EMA(50). The late-NY push to Thursday's high at 1.1185 sits at the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, just under Monday's NY high at 1.1195.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1153, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the Wed high at 1.1169 and EMA(20) near 1.1153 would undercut the reversal read
Acceptance above Monday's NY high at 1.1195 opens the path to the weekly open near 1.1220
A break back below the 1.1104 week low reinstates the downtrend and cancels the false-break read
EZ flash GDP/CPI Fri 05:30–09:00 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp reversal off the lows · RSI 59 · price 1.11612
Lower highs since Monday; Thursday's break below 1.1113 reversed.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1226 peak just above the 1.1220 weekly open. London sessions drove most of the decline, which reached a 17-month low at 1.1104 in the 13:00 UTC bar Thursday as the ECB hold and a US Q3 GDP beat firmed the dollar. NY hours then reversed the break hard, reclaiming Wednesday's low at 1.1113 and EMA20 and pushing back above the lower-high line from Monday. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the week's drop near 1.1165, just under Thursday's high at 1.1173, with RSI(14) recovered to ~59.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1203, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1173 Thursday high and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1180 opens the Monday break level at 1.1203 and the 1.1220 weekly open
Loss of EMA20 near 1.1152 and then Wednesday's low at 1.1113 would turn Thursday's reversal into a failed recovery and re-expose the 17-month low at 1.1104
Friday's EZ flash GDP/CPI (from 05:30 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's 1.1226 high near the weekly open gave way to London-led selling into Wednesday's 1.1113 wed low, with lower highs capping the Fed-hour spike to 1.1169. Thursday's ECB hold and the strong US GDP and claims data took price through that low to a 17-month week low at 1.1104. The break failed within the hour, and the NY session rallied to the 1.1173 thu high, breaking the lower-highs trendline and lifting price above EMA(20) near 1.1150. RSI(14) sits near 60 and the rebound is pausing around the 50% retracement of the week's drop, leaving a double bottom forming beneath 1.1173.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1222
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1173 thu high confirms the double bottom and opens the 1.1195 mon swing hi, then the 1.1222 weekly open
Loss of EMA(20) near 1.1150, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, returns focus to the 1.1113 wed low
H1 close back below the 1.1104 week low negates the false break and resumes the downtrend
Friday's EZ GDP flash and HICP (09:00 UTC) and the US ECI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, sharp reversal off Thursday low · RSI 62 · price 1.11696
The week gapped up to a 1.1220 weekly open, then sold off from the 1.1226 high through Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London session. Lower highs carried price to a 1.1104 17-month low at Thursday's NY open on the ECB hold and US GDP/PCE data. The dip below the Wed low at 1.1113 failed within the hour, and softer US details (GDP price index, income) coincided with a rebound through the lower-high line and EMA(20) near 1.1150. That move now presses the Wed high at 1.1170–73, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the week's decline. RSI(14) has turned up to ~62, and the 1.1113/1.1104 lows form a potential double bottom beneath that neckline.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1195, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1173 wed high confirms the double bottom and opens the mon high at 1.1195, then the weekly open at 1.1220
Slip back below EMA(20) near 1.1150 returns focus to the wed low at 1.1113 and the 17m low at 1.1104
Friday EZ GDP flash/HICP (07:45–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower lows all week; Thursday false break below 1.1113 reversed to the 50% retrace.
From Monday's weekly open at 1.1220, the pair printed a lower low every day. Thursday's US GDP beat drove a dip to a 1.1104 week low in the first hour of NY, below Wednesday's low at 1.1113. That move failed: a 69-pip reversal reclaimed ema20 and reached a Thursday high of 1.1173, near the 50% retrace of the week's decline. Price now sits at the lower-highs line from Tuesday's 1.1177 high, with RSI(14) near 59 after holding sub-50 for most of the week.
Support: 1.1146, 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1180, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1173 thu high and the 61.8% fib at 1.1180 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the weekly open at 1.1220
Slip back below ema20 (~1.1146) and the 1.1113 wed low turns the false break into a range, with the 1.1104 week low back in view
EZ Q3 flash GDP (09:00 UTC) and US ECI (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; false break below Wed low reclaimed.
EUR/USD has carved lower highs since Monday's Asia-session week high at 1.1226. Thursday's US GDP/PCE release in the first hour of NY pushed price through Wednesday's 1.1113 low to a 17-month low at 1.1104. A sharp NY-session reversal followed, with the soft GDP deflator tempering the USD bid, and lifted price back above the ema20/50 cluster near 1.1145 and through the lower-highs trendline. Today's high at 1.1173 stalled just above the 50% retracement of the week's decline, and RSI(14) printed a higher low into the fresh price low.
Support: 1.1145, 1.11127, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.11732, 1.11797, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20/50 cluster near 1.1145 would undercut the false break read
Failure to clear today's high at 1.1173 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1180 leaves the week's lower-highs sequence intact below the week high at 1.1226
Loss of Wednesday's low at 1.1113 re-exposes the 17-month low at 1.1104
EZ flash GDP and inflation (Fri 07:45–09:00 UTC) and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday; false break of Wed low reclaimed.
EUR/USD bled from the 1.1220 weekly open through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 wed high faded back into a 1.1130–1.1155 grind. In the first hours of NY today, the hot US GDP and claims prints and the ECB hold pushed price through the 1.1113 wed low to a 1.1104 week low, but the break failed. A one-bar rebound to 1.1167 reclaimed the ema20 near 1.1145 and lifted RSI(14) back to the high-50s. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the week's decline, just under the wed high, with H1 ATR expanding to ~16–17 pips.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1113, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1180, 1.1220
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 wed high and 61.8% fib near 1.1180 invalidates the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1200 area and the 1.1220 weekly open
Slip back below the ema20 near 1.1145 puts the rebound at risk and returns focus to the 1.1113 wed low
Failure to hold the 1.1104 week low after today's false break would confirm a fresh lower-low
ECB's Cipollone at 15:50 UTC, then EZ GDP/HICP (08:00–09:00 UTC) and US ECI (12:30 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1226 peak; false break of Wed low on ECB.
EUR/USD has shed about 120 pips since Monday's 1.1226 high, with most of the damage done through the Monday and Tuesday London sessions. Each rally since has stalled at a lower high: the post-FOMC spike to the wed high at 1.1169 faded near the 50% fib, and today's thu high at 1.1152 met the lower-highs trendline. The ECB hold and soft eurozone sentiment drove a dip to a new week low at 1.1104, briefly through the wed low at 1.1113, before price reclaimed 1.1134 just under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.11127, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1141, 1.11518, 1.11691
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1104 week low would turn the false break into a lower-low, with 1.1065 next in the digest
H1 close above the 1.1152 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline. The wed high at 1.1169 and the 50% fib sit above
Holding back above the ema20 at 1.1141 would mark the first reclaim since Thursday's Asia session
Lagarde's press conference is live now and Cipollone speaks at 15:50 UTC. A December-hike steer could materially shift this read
Friday's EZ CPI/GDP and US ECI at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for a test of the week low
Post-FOMC lower highs vs higher lows above week low.
The selloff from the 1.1220 weekly open and 1.1226 Monday high bottomed at the 1.1113 week low in Wednesday's London session. The post-FOMC spike then met rejection at the 1.1169 fomc high, almost exactly the 50% retracement of that leg. Since then price has compressed between lower highs off the fomc high and higher lows above the week low, with today's low at 1.1125 holding through London. Price is pinned at EMA(20) and just under EMA(50) near 1.1146, with RSI(14) flat near 49, while soft EZ sentiment (ESI 96.9 vs 97.5) and Lagarde's resignation news keep EUR heavy into the ECB.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169, 1.1220
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read and resolve the compression
H1 close below the 1.1125 today low and the 1.1113 week low breaks the higher-lows line and resumes the week's lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.1158 today high and the 1.1169 fomc high breaks the lower-highs line and clears the 50% retracement, with the 1.1220 weekly open the next reference above
Post-FOMC consolidation of lower highs and higher lows inside the weekly downtrend.
EUR/USD stepped down from Monday's 1.1226 week high to Wednesday's 1.1113 week low, with London sessions doing most of the selling as French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed. The post-FOMC spike was rejected at the 1.1169 fed high, almost exactly the 50% fib of the week's drop. Since then, lower highs at the 1.1158 day high and 1.1150 have met higher lows at 1.1122 and the 1.1125 day low, compressing price around EMA(20) at 1.1142 with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1125, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1158 day high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.1169 fed high / 50% fib back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1125 day low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1113 week low
Sustained trade back below ema20 at 1.1142 returns price to the base of the consolidation
Lower highs below the downtrend line; price back under EMA20/EMA50 near 1.1144.
EUR/USD has trended lower since Monday's 1.1220 open, with the slide running mostly through London hours Monday to Wednesday down to a 1.1113 week low as French spread stress and a firm USD weighed. The post-Fed spike to the 1.1169 fomc high was rejected at the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Asia and London today then printed lower highs beneath the 1.1158 day high, putting price back under the ema20 at 1.1144, with EMA(50) clustered at the same level. Price now sits just above the 1.1125 day low, with the week low and the 1.1100 round number beneath.
Support: 1.11251, 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1144, 1.1158, 1.11691
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1125 day low exposes the 1.1113 week low and the 1.1100 round number
Failure to hold the higher-low line from the week low would confirm a lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1144 ema20, then a close above the 1.1169 fomc high, would break the downtrend line and the lower-high sequence
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:45, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1226; higher lows since Wednesday's 1.1113 low, range compressing.
From the 1.1220 weekly open the pair sold off through the Monday and Tuesday London sessions. The slide reached a 1.1113 week low at Wednesday's London open as France stress and hawkish Fed pricing weighed on EUR. The post-FOMC spike met rejection at 1.1169, which is the 50% retracement of the weekly drop. The Asia-session USD rebound has since pushed price back below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 47. Thursday's twin London lows at 1.1131 now set the floor of a narrowing range between the lower highs line and the higher lows off the week low.
Support: 1.11307, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11417, 1.11691, 1.12198
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1113 week low, near the 1.1110 October low, breaks the higher lows line and confirms a lower-low
Holding the 1.1131 thu low keeps the higher lows sequence from Wednesday intact
Failure to reclaim ema20 at 1.1142 keeps the range capped below the mid-point
H1 close above the 1.1169 fomc high and the lower highs line invalidates the week's lower-high sequence, with the 1.1220 weekly open above
Lower highs and higher lows compressing after Wednesday's low.
From the 1.1220 weekly open, EUR slid about 114 pips to a 1.1113 week low early Wednesday as weak PMIs, French fiscal stress and a firm USD weighed, with London sessions carrying the Monday and Tuesday legs lower. Wednesday's NY-session bounce ran into the Fed decision, where a spike to the 1.1169 fed high, the 50% retracement of the week's drop, was rejected. Since then, highs at 1.1158 (today high) and 1.1147 sit progressively lower while lows hold higher at 1.1131 (today low), coiling price around the EMA(20) near 1.1142 and the EMA(50) near 1.1146 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169, 1.1220
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 13:15 GMT plus US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1131 today low breaks the higher-low support line and exposes the 1.1113 week low
Failure to hold the 1.1113 week low resumes the downtrend from the weekly open
H1 close above 1.1158 today high and the 1.1169 fed high (50% fib) opens the path toward the 1.1220 weekly open
Price holding either side of the ema20 near 1.1142 sets the direction of the current compression
Lower highs from week high; Fed spike capped at 50% retrace.
EURUSD slid from Monday's Asia-session week high at 1.1226 to a week low at 1.1113 into Wednesday's London open. Most of the damage came in Monday NY and Tuesday London, on PMI misses and broad USD strength. The Warsh presser after the Fed hold broke the lower-highs line, but the spike stalled at the 1.1169 fed high, right on the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Asia-session USD demand has since pulled price back to 1.1137, below ema20 at 1.1144, with RSI(14) back to the high-40s and the session low at 1.1131 just underneath.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1144, 1.1169, 1.1226
What it said to watch
US PCE/GDP/claims at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT, with Lagarde's December wording, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1113 week low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 1.1110 yearly-low area
Loss of the 1.1131 session low leaves the post-Fed bounce fully retraced toward the week low
Reclaim of ema20 and an H1 close above the 1.1169 fed high / 50% retracement would break the lower-high structure and put the 1.1226 week high back in view
Lower highs from 1.1226; FOMC spike capped at 1.1169 below week-slide midpoint.
The week slide ran from Monday's London open to Wednesday's London open, about 114 pips from the 1.1226 week high to the 1.1113 week low. Lower highs held in both London and NY hours as the USD firmed on Fed hike pricing and EZ PMIs missed. The FOMC-hour spike to the 1.1169 fomc high stalled at the 50% retracement of that week slide and faded. In the Asian session price slipped back under the ema20 at 1.1142 and EMA(50) near 1.1147, with RSI(14) around 45. Price now sits on the post-fed low at 1.1134 and the rising lows line from Wednesday, with the fomc low at 1.1122 beneath.
Support: 1.11336, 1.11222, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11419, 1.11691, 1.12263
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1113 week low extends the lower-low sequence to fresh lows since May 2025
Loss of the 1.1134 post-fed low and the rising lows line puts the 1.1122 fomc low back in play
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.1169 fomc high (50% of the week slide) opens the 61.8% at 1.1183 and weakens the downtrend read
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and the Lagarde presser at 13:45 could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1226; post-Fed bounce capped near the 50% retrace, now ranging in Asia.
EUR/USD fell from Monday's 1.1226 high near the weekly open to a 1.1113 week low on Wednesday, with the heaviest legs in Monday's NY session and Tuesday's London session as Fed hike pricing lifted the dollar. The Fed-hold spike topped at the 1.1169 fed high, almost exactly the 50% retrace of the week's decline, and was rejected. Thursday's Asian range of 1.1134–1.1158 (asia low / asia high) has price sitting on EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.1134, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1134 asia low exposes the 1.1113 week low and the 1.1100 psych floor
H1 close above the 1.1169 fed high breaks the lower-high trendline and the week's sequence, with the 1.1200 round number next
Asia high at 1.1158, near the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline, is capping the bounce
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC (presser 13:45) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday high; first higher high printed after Fed.
EUR/USD slid from Monday's Asia-session week high at 1.1226 through Tuesday's London session to a week low of 1.1113 early Wednesday, before Chair Warsh's post-Fed presser triggered a sell-the-fact USD dip that lifted the pair to 1.1169. That post-Fed high sits on the 50% retracement of the week's decline and printed the first higher high of the week. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 1.1142 and the post-Fed low at 1.1148 into the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 65 after cycling up from the 30s.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200, 1.1226
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1169 post-fed high and 50% fib opens the 1.1200 round number, with the week high at 1.1226 beyond
Loss of the post-fed low at 1.1148 and EMA(20) returns price to Wednesday's higher lows line
Close below the 1.1122 fed-bar low exposes the week low at 1.1113 and revives the lower-low sequence
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday, then the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and Lagarde at 13:45, could materially shift this read