Tight range 1.1148–1.1169 above the broken 1.1152 London high.
The Fed hold drew a sell-the-fact USD dip. The Warsh presser bar broke the 1.1152 London high and printed the fed high at 1.1169, up from a 1.1113 day low. Since then price has held a range into early Asia, with the 1.1148 range floor tested twice and lining up with the 38.2% fib. A push off that floor has lifted RSI(14) to 62, and ATR is still inflated by the Fed bars.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1169 fed high opens the 1.1200 psych level
Close below the 1.1148 range floor / 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1122 fed-bar low
EZ sentiment data at 10:00 GMT, then US PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT and the ECB at 13:15 GMT, could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Post-Fed bounce, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.11569
Tight range 1.1148–1.1165 below the post-Fed spike high.
London open printed the 1.1113 yearly low. NY then built higher, and Warsh's presser broke the pair out to a 1.1169 fed high as USD sold the fact. Since then the Asia session has compressed into a 1.1148–1.1165 range, with the range low holding at the 38.2% retrace of the London low–fed high leg and ATR shrinking back to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1165 range top and 1.1169 fed high opens the path toward the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1148 range low (38.2% retrace) puts the post-Fed bounce at risk of a deeper fade toward the 1.1113 yearly low
Thu US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT sit beyond the next few hours but are the likely range-break catalysts
EZ Consumer Confidence/Economic Sentiment at 10:00 GMT could stir London open price action
Warsh's presser at 21:30 broker swept down to the 1.1122 fed wick low, then spiked to the 1.1169 fed high, clearing the pre-Fed 1.1152 top on dollar selling. Since then, lower highs at 1.1165 and 1.1156 have pressed price into the 1.1148 range low. That floor sits on the 38.2% fib of the day's 1.1113–1.1169 move, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) bleeding back to about 5 pips in early Asia session.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1165, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1148 range low / 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1122 fed wick low, with the 1.1113 day low behind it
Close above the 1.1156 micro high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1165 lower high and 1.1169 fed high
EZ Consumer Confidence/ESI at 10:00 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst; ECB at 13:15 GMT and US PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT could reset this range
Tight range 1.1148–1.1169 under a lower-highs line.
Warsh's presser bar broke EUR/USD out of the pre-Fed range from the 1.1113 London low to a 1.1169 session high. Since then a lower-highs line from the 20:00 high has capped price, while the post-Fed low at 1.1148 has held three times, right on the 38.2% retracement of the London-Fed leg. Early Asia is quiet, ATR is back near 6 pips and RSI is neutral.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1133, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1165, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1148 post-fed low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1133 pre-fed base
Close above the 1.1156 lower highs line reopens the 20:00 high at 1.1165 and the 1.1169 session high
Asian range is still developing; a hold of 1.1148–1.1156 keeps the consolidation read
US PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs after the 1.1169 Fed high; 1.1148 post-Fed low holding.
Warsh's presser drove the 18:30 UTC bar from 1.1122 to the 1.1169 Fed high, breaking the 1.1152 pre-Fed high. Since then a sequence of lower highs has pulled price back to retest that area. The 1.1148 post-Fed low has held four times and lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the day's rally from the 1.1113 Asian low. Early Asia trade is thin, RSI(14) is flat near 50 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1135, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1165, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1148 post-Fed low breaks the hold and exposes the 1.1135 swing low
Close above the 1.1156 lower high breaks the post-Fed lower-high sequence, with the 1.1165 post-Fed cap and 1.1169 Fed high above
A slide to the 1.1113 Asian low would retrace the day's rally in full
US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside post-Fed range, testing range low.
Warsh's presser drove an 18:30 UTC spike to the 1.1169 session high. A run of lower highs has since pulled price back to the 1.1148 range low, at the 38.2% retrace of the London-Fed leg and just under the 1.1152 pre-Fed high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.11483, 1.11425, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.11521, 1.11558, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1148 range low exposes the 1.1143 pullback low and the 50% retrace near 1.1141
Failure to hold 1.1143 opens the 1.1122 spike low at the extreme of the Fed bar
Reclaim of the 1.1152 pre-Fed high and a break of the lower highs line near 1.1156 restores the post-Fed range, with the 1.1169 session high above
Asia session liquidity is thin. The ECB decision and US PCE/Q3 GDP on Thursday could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range 1.1149–1.1169 with lower highs pressing the range floor.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' remark lifted EUR/USD from 1.1122 to a 1.1169 session high, clearing the 1.1152 pre-Fed high. The post-Fed range has since printed lower highs into the 1.1149 post-Fed low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.1113–1.1169 rally. Price is back below the pre-Fed high in thin post-NY trade, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1141, 1.1133
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1165, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 post-Fed low exposes the 50% fib at 1.1141 and the 1.1133 pre-Fed dip
Close back above the 1.1152 pre-Fed high and the 1.1165 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1169 session high back in focus
US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, then a 1.1149–1.1165 range after the Fed spike.
The pair built higher lows from the 1.1113 London low through NY hours. Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser then drove a spike from 1.1122 to the 1.1169 spike high, which cleared the 1.1152 pre-fed high. Price has since compressed between the 1.1149 post-fed low and the 1.1165 range top. It is holding the pre-fed high and the 38.2% fib in thin early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.11521, 1.11486
Resistance: 1.11654, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 post-fed low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1146 and fades the Fed spike
Close above the 1.1165 range top retests the 1.1169 spike high
Losing the 1.1152 pre-fed high turns it from support back into a cap
US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT Thursday could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range 1.1149–1.1169, lower highs compressing.
London lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1113 day low, and Warsh's 'tightening is working' remark at the 18:30 UTC presser spiked it to the 1.1169 fed spike hi. That move cleared the 1.1152 pre-Fed high. Since then price has held a 1.1149–1.1165 range: the post-fed low sits on the 38.2% fib and highs keep slipping from the 1.1165 lower high, with price pinned near 1.1153 into a thin Asia session and RSI(14) back to a neutral 56.
Support: 1.11486, 1.11348, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11654, 1.11691, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 post-fed low and 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1135 pre-fed low
M15 close above the 1.1165 lower high puts the 1.1169 fed spike hi back in play, with the 1.1200 round number beyond
A slide back to the 1.1113 day low would fully unwind the Warsh rally
EZ ESI at 10:00 UTC, US Core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing onto post-Fed range floor 1.1149–1.1152.
Warsh's presser after the 18:00 UTC Fed hold whipsawed price to the 1.1122 fed low, then spiked it to the 1.1169 fed high, clearing the 1.1152 London high. Lower highs at 1.1165 and 1.1158 have since pressed price onto the 1.1149–1.1152 post-fed low area as NY trade thins out. Price is barely above EMA20 near 1.1150, and RSI(14) is neutral at 57.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1135, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 post-fed low exposes the 1.1135 swing low, which lines up with the 61.8% of the London-Fed leg
Close above the 1.1158 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1169 fed high, then the 1.1200 round number
Thin Asia session liquidity can produce false breaks of the post-Fed range
ECB decision at 13:15 GMT and US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the London-open low at 1.1113, now a tight post-Fed range 1.1149–1.1169.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser drove a 46-pip spike through the day's 1.1152 high to a fed high at 1.1169. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1149–1.1169 range, with three tests of the range low holding. Price is hovering at the 23.6% retracement of the day rally from 1.1113, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1128
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 range low exposes the 1.1128 pre-fed low and the 38.2% retracement near 1.1148–1.1141
M15 close above the 1.1169 fed high opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
US core PCE/Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Post-Fed spike, now consolidating · RSI 56 · price 1.11529
Range 1.1149–1.1169 above the pre-Fed high, after a London low at 1.1113.
Warsh's presser drove a spike through the pre-Fed high at 1.1152 to a session high at 1.1169. That extended the rally off the 1.1113 London low. Price has since compressed in a 1.1149–1.1169 range into the late NY session, holding above the 38.2% fib of the day's move, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1135, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 range low exposes the 1.1135 pre-fed low and the 50% fib near 1.1141
M15 close above the 1.1169 session high opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Asia session ahead; range likely to compress until Thursday's US PCE/GDP (~15.5h) and ECB decision
Higher low at 1.1113 London low, NY spike to 1.1169, now a late-NY range 1.1149–1.1169.
London swept below the Asian range to 1.1113, then NY broke the Asian high and Warsh's presser drove a spike to a 1.1169 session high. Late NY is holding a 1.1149–1.1169 band, with the post-Fed low resting just above the 38.2% fib of the 1.1113–1.1169 move. A lower high has formed at 1.1165 and RSI is neutral near 57.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1138
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 post-fed low breaks the range and exposes the 38.2% fib, then the 1.1138 london high
Close above the 1.1169 session high and the 1.1165 lower high reopens the 1.1200 psych area
ECB decision and US core PCE/GDP Thursday could materially shift this read
Warsh's presser sold the dollar and turned an early-London low at 1.1113 into a spike to a 1.1169 session high, with the 18:30 UTC bar clearing the 1.1152 pre-FOMC high. Late in the NY session, price is holding a 1.1149–1.1165 range. The range floor lines up with the 38.2% fib, while lower highs at 1.1163–1.1165 cap the upside. RSI(14) has cooled to 53 and ATR is elevated near 12 pips after the event.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1135, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 range floor (38.2% fib) opens the 50% fib near 1.1141 and the pre-fomc low at 1.1135
Clearing the lower highs at 1.1165 and the 1.1169 session high puts the 1.1190–1.1200 psych area in view
Loss of the 1.1122 spike low would erase the post-FOMC breakout
ECB decision (13:15 GMT) and US core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1113 day low; 1.1149–1.1169 band since Warsh presser.
Warsh's presser remark that tightening 'is starting to work' sold the dollar. EUR/USD swung from the 1.1122 spike low to the 1.1169 presser high in one bar, clearing the 1.1152 pre-Fed high. Late NY has since compressed between 1.1149 and 1.1169; the post-Fed low has held three times near the 38.2% of the day-low rally from 1.1113, and RSI(14) is neutral at 59.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1169 presser high opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1149 post-Fed low exposes the 1.1122 spike low and the 1.1113 day low
Thin Asia session liquidity after the FOMC spike can produce false breaks of the 1.1149–1.1169 band
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; tight 1.1149–1.1169 box after presser spike.
Warsh's presser drove a 47-pip spike from the 1.1122 spike low to a 1.1169 session high late in the NY session, extending the London rebound off the 1.1113 low. Price is now holding a tight box between the 1.1149 post-fed low and the session high, above the 38.2% of the spike, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1122
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1149 post-fed low breaks the consolidation and opens the 50% retrace near 1.1146 and the 1.1122 spike low
Close above the 1.1169 session high extends the breakout toward the 1.1200 round number
Thin liquidity after the NY close may keep the box intact into the Asian range
US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC and the ECB decision at 13:15 GMT Thursday could materially shift this read
Asian low swept at London open, NY higher-high chain, post-presser lower highs above 1.1149.
London opened by sweeping the Asian low to 1.1113. Warsh's 'starting to work' remark then lifted price through the 1.1152 pre-FOMC high to a 1.1169 session high. Late NY is compressing under a lower high at 1.1162, holding the 38.2% fib near 1.1151 after testing the FOMC low at 1.1149 three times.
Support: 1.11486, 1.11279
Resistance: 1.11621, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1149 FOMC low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.1140 and the 1.1128 pre-FOMC low
Close above the 1.1162 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1169 session high
US GDP/core PCE (12:30 UTC) and the ECB decision (13:15 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low 1.1113; presser spike cleared pre-Fed high, holding above 1.1150.
Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC whipsawed price from a 1.1122 spike low to a 1.1169 presser high, clearing the 1.1152 pre-Fed high on the digest's 'tightening is starting to work' read. Late NY is holding a 1.1149–1.1165 band above that level, RSI(14) cooled to ~59 and ATR(14) is inflated to ~10 pips by the spike.
Support: 1.11521, 1.11409, 1.11222
Resistance: 1.11691, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1152 pre-fed high puts the breakout at risk and exposes the fib 50% at 1.1141
Clearing the 1.1169 presser high opens the 1.1190–1.1200 round number zone flagged as resistance
A break of rising support from the 1.1113 London low, through the 1.1122 spike low, would end the higher-low sequence
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC Thursday, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1113 day low; post-Fed spike holding above 1.1149.
Warsh's presser drove a 46-pip NY-session spike from 1.1122 to a 1.1169 session high. The move cleared the 1.1152 afternoon high and left price well above the Asian range after London's 1.1113 day low held, extending the rising lows. The 1.1149 post-Fed low, which lines up with the 38.2% of the day range fib, has held twice; RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) has expanded to about 10 pips.
Support: 1.11493, 1.11348
Resistance: 1.11691, 1.1190
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1149 post-Fed low exposes the 1.1135 pre-Fed low
M15 close above the 1.1169 session high opens the path to the 1.1190 zone, flagged as resistance in the EUR digest
A break of the rising lows line from the 1.1113 day low would undo the intraday higher-low sequence
Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE, then the ECB decision at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Breakout above pre-Fed high, retesting it after spike rejection.
Warsh's presser drove a 46-pip bar from 1.1122 to a 1.1169 fomc high, clearing the 1.1150 prior high set late in the NY session. The next bar gave back most of the spike, and price is now retesting 1.1150 with RSI(14) near 60. The session's higher-low sequence from the 1.1113 day low at London open, which matches the yearly low, is still intact.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1135, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1150 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.1135 swing low (61.8% retracement)
Reclaim of the 1.1169 fomc high opens the 1.1200 round number, the top of the 1.1190-1.1200 cap
Warsh press conference still running; December-hike guidance headlines can extend the spike range in either direction
Loss of 1.1135 swing low puts the 1.1113 day low back in focus
18:32 UTC
Intraday recovery off lows, stalling after the Fed · RSI 49 · price 1.1134
Higher lows from the London low intact; Fed spike printed a lower high under the session high.
The Fed's as-expected hold produced a two-way spike: a tag of 1.1146 was rejected and flushed to the 1.1128 post-Fed low. Price is now at 1.1134, near the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally from the 1.1124 NY swing low to the 1.1152 session high. Higher lows from the 1.1113 London low are still in place, but the Fed spike marks a lower high, and price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.1128, 1.1124, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1146, 1.1152
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC is under way and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1128 post-fed low and the rising line from the London low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1124 NY swing low
Failure to hold 1.1124 brings the 1.1113 London low and yearly low back into view
A close above the 1.1146 fed spike reopens the 1.1152 session high
ECB decision Thu 13:15 GMT is the next major event risk
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off yearly low, pulling back post-Fed · RSI 46 · price 1.11334
Higher lows from 1.1113; Fed spike rejected below session high.
EUR/USD bounced off the 1.1113 yearly low at London open and built higher lows into a 1.1152 session high late in NY as USD paused ahead of the Fed. The 18:00 UTC decision bar spiked to 1.1146 and was rejected. Price is now retesting the 50% fib of the London-NY leg near 1.1133, under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.11324, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11459, 1.11521
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand well beyond 5 pips
M15 close below the 50% fib and the higher-lows trendline near 1.1130 breaks the intraday sequence and exposes the 1.1124 NY low
Failure to hold the 1.1124 NY low puts the 1.1113 yearly low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1146 Fed spike high reopens the 1.1152 session high
18:02 UTC
Intraday rebound off yearly low, faded into Fed · RSI 55 · price 1.11386
Higher-low chain from 1.1113; pullback to 50% fib held on Fed bar.
EUR/USD recovered from the 1.1113 yearly low at London open, broke the Asian range high around noon UTC and printed a 1.1152 session high before fading into the Fed. The 18:00 UTC decision bar whipsawed between the fed bar low at 1.1133, near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg and just above the Asian high, and the fed spike hi at 1.1145. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.11328, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11452, 1.11521
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 6-pip ATR understates the likely event range
M15 close below the 1.1133 fed bar low puts the 1.1124 ny swing low and the rising support line in play
A break of the 1.1124 ny swing low ends the higher-low sequence from the 1.1113 yearly low
M15 close above the 1.1145 fed spike hi reopens the 1.1152 session high
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 64 · price 1.11444
HH/HL chain from London low; breakout above prior high now being retested.
London open swept the Asian range low to a 1.1113 London low near the yearly low. Higher lows from there carried price through yesterday's 1.1138–1.1140 prior high to a 1.1152 session high. Price is now easing to 1.1144 with RSI(14) at 64 as USD pauses about 30 minutes before the Fed.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1124, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR of ~5 pips is likely to expand
An M15 close back below the 1.1138 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1124 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and the London low trendline
An M15 close above the 1.1152 session high exposes the next cap at 1.1160
17:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London open · RSI 66 · price 1.1147
HH/HL chain off the 1.1113 low; 1.1140 prior high broken, holding just below the 1.1152 session high.
London open swept below the Asian low to the 1.1113 year low, then rallied in a higher-low chain through NY. The rally broke the 1.1140 prior high and printed a 1.1152 session high after London close, consistent with the digest's pre-Fed USD pause and short-covering from oversold levels. Price is steady at 1.1147 into the Fed, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1140, 1.1131, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1160, 1.1190
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 5-pip ATR understates the event range
An M15 close back below the 1.1140 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the 1.1131 swing low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1113 year low
A close above the 1.1152 session high opens 1.1160 resistance, with the 1.1190 upper cap beyond
17:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, extended into the Fed · RSI 65 · price 1.11473
Higher lows since 07:00 UTC; NY broke the prior high and set a new session high.
After a London-open dip to the 1.1113 london low (the yearly low), EUR/USD has built higher lows. NY broke the 1.1138 prior high and tagged a 1.1152 session high before a wick rejection. The digest frames this as an oversold EUR bounce while the USD pauses into the Fed, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1124, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1152, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the current ~5-pip ATR is unlikely to hold through the release
An M15 close back below the 1.1138 prior high would mark the NY breakout as failed
A break of the rising lows trendline (~1.1128), then the 1.1124 higher low, would unwind the London rally structure; the 50-61.8% fib zone sits at 1.1132-1.1128
A close above the 1.1152 session high opens the digest's 1.1160 res; the 1.1113 london low remains the floor of the 24h structure
Higher lows since London open sweep, fresh session high 1.1148.
London open swept below the Asian range to 1.1113 and reversed. NY then extended the higher-low chain through the 1.1138 flip level to a 1.1148 session high as the USD paused ahead of the Fed. RSI(14) near 66 is firm, not stretched.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1131, 1.1124
Resistance: 1.1148, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1148 session high opens the 1.1160 next res
Failure to hold the 1.1138 flip level exposes the 1.1131 swing low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 1.1124 higher low invalidates the London-NY rally structure
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing new 24h high · RSI 71 · price 1.1148
HH/HL chain off the 1.1113 London-open low; NY broke above the prior high at 1.1142.
The London open flushed through the Asian low to 1.1113, then reversed into a higher-low chain along rising support. NY held a 1.1124 low before breaking the prior high at 1.1142, and the 24h high at 1.1148 sits in the 1.1145/1.1160 res zone. RSI(14) at 71 reflects USD pausing roughly 90 minutes before the Fed.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131, 1.1124
Resistance: 1.1148, 1.1160
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 GMT and Warsh presser 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1142 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1131 swing low and the 1.1124 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and rising support
Acceptance above the 24h high at 1.1148 puts 1.1160 res in play
16:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 65 · price 1.11441
HH/HL chain off London open low, session high broken.
Price has climbed a steady HH/HL chain off the 1.1113 year low printed at the London open. It has now cleared the 1.1138 prior high and is pressing a 24h high at 1.1144 in the second half of the NY session, with pre-Fed short-covering after the digest's stretched-short read. RSI(14) near 65 is firm but not extreme, and the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1113–1.1144 leg aligns with the 1.1131 higher low.
Support: 1.1138, 1.1131, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1144, 1.1150
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 GMT and Warsh presser 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1138 prior high would mark a false break of the session high
Loss of the 1.1131 higher low and the rising trendline from 1.1113 breaks the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 24h high and the 1.1150 round number opens the 1.1160 resistance cited in the digest
16:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 61 · price 1.11388
HH/HL sequence off 1.1113 day low, testing session high.
EUR/USD put in its 1.1113 day low at London open, extending the Asian drift, then built higher lows into NY as the USD paused ahead of the Fed. The 14:15 UTC dip held at the 1.1124 NY low and price is pressing the 1.1140 session high, with the fib 38.2 near 1.1129 marking first pullback support.
Support: 1.1129, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11396, 1.11443
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1144 prior high (yesterday's NY high) extends the recovery toward the 1.1145/1.1160 zone
Rejection at the 1.1140 session high with a close back below the fib 38.2 at 1.1129 flattens the structure
Break of the 1.1124 NY low and the higher-low trendline ends the HL sequence and puts the 1.1113 day low back in play
Asian range broken higher, NY coiling under 1.1138 session high.
Recovery off the 1.1113 london low, a fresh 17-month low, broke the 1.1132 asian high during the London-NY transition, keeping a higher-lows chain intact; the NY dip to the 1.1124 swing low held between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg. The 1.1138 session high has capped twice in NY, and price is coiling beneath it with roughly 2h to the Fed.
Support: 1.1132, 1.1124, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1138, 1.1144
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 session high opens the 1.1144 prior high
Slip back below the 1.1132 asian high undercuts the breakout
Loss of the 1.1124 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 1.1113 london low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low, capped by 1.1138 session high.
London open swept the Asian low and printed the 1.1113 london low before a rising trendline of higher lows formed, with the dollar pausing ahead of the Fed. The NY session met rejection at the 1.1138 session high. The pullback held 1.1124 (ny low), near the 61.8% fib, and price is back at 1.1134 above the 1.1129 swing low.
Support: 1.11293, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11384, 1.11459
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 session high opens the 1.1145 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Break of the 1.1124 ny low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low read and exposes the 1.1113 london low
Failure to hold the 1.1129 swing low keeps price inside the NY pullback range
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 57 · price 1.11343
HL chain off 1.1113; Asian high broken, capped at 1.1138.
London open swept the Asian lows to the 1.1113 london low, then built a higher low at 1.1121. During NY hours price broke the 1.1132 asian high and set a 1.1138 session high. The 14:00 UTC flush to the 1.1124 pullback low held the 50–61.8% retrace, and price is back at 1.1134 as USD pauses into the Fed.
Support: 1.11317, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11384, 1.11459
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1138 session high opens the path to the 1.1146 prior high
M15 close below the 1.1124 pullback low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, with the 1.1113 london low next
15:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the yearly low, higher lows intact · RSI 58 · price 1.11349
Higher-low chain since the 1.1113 low; NY pullback held above Asian range high.
The Asian session extended Tuesday's slide to the 1.1113 yearly low at the London open. Price then built higher lows and broke the Asian high at 1.1132 as the USD paused ahead of the Fed. The NY session high at 1.1138 rejected price back to a 1.1124 swing low near the 61.8% retracement, and the rebound has since reclaimed 1.1135.
Support: 1.11317, 1.11239, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11384, 1.11459
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1138 session high exposes the 1.1146 prior high from Tuesday's NY session
Failure to hold the 1.1124 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns focus to the 1.1113 yearly low
Slipping back below the 1.1132 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Fed decision 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.1113 day low intact; NY high rejected.
London open swept below the Asian range to a 1.1113 day low, near the yearly low, then built higher lows into NY. The push through the 1.1129 London high to the 1.1138 NY high was rejected in the 14:00 UTC bar, dropping price back below that level to a 1.1124 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, as USD stays firm into the Fed. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and price is back under EMA20.
Support: 1.11239, 1.11206, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11384, 1.11494
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1121 higher low breaks the London-NY higher-low chain and exposes the 1.1113 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1129 London high and the 1.1138 NY high would negate the false break and open the 1.1149 prior high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC: December hike guidance could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from day low broken by NY rejection.
London open swept the Asian low to the 1.1113 day low, near the yearly low, then built higher lows into the NY session. A rejection at the 1.1138 session high in the first hours of NY broke the 1.1129 higher low and dropped price to the 1.1124 swing low. Price is holding near the 38.2% level of the day range retrace as the USD stays firm ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.11239, 1.11206, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11384, 1.11494
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.1124 swing low and the 1.1121 higher low exposes the 1.1113 day low
Recovery above the 1.1132 Asian high reopens the 1.1138 session high, with the 1.1149 prior high above
14:17 UTC
Intraday rebound stalling, rolling over · RSI 49 · price 1.11255
Higher-low chain off yearly low broken by NY rejection.
London open swept the 1.1113 yearly low and reversed, and the rebound cleared the Asian high to a session high at 1.1138 early in NY. A sharp rejection there has dropped price back below 1.1130 to the 50% retracement of the leg near 1.1125, ahead of the Fed decision later today.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1120 swing low keeps the higher-low structure from London intact
Break below 1.1120 exposes the 1.1113 yearly low swept at London open
Recovery above the 1.1132 Asian high reopens the 1.1138 session high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Asian range high broken, now being retested early in NY.
London open swept the yearly low at 1.1113 and reversed. Price then built higher lows along rising support and broke the Asian high at 1.1132 at midday, with NY open printing a session high at 1.1138. Price is now retesting the Asian high as USD holds firm into the Fed, RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.1130, 1.11206, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11384, 1.11443
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1130 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1121 higher low breaks rising support and exposes the yearly low at 1.1113
Close above the 1.1138 session high opens the prior swing at 1.1144; a retrace into the 50% of the London rally (1.1126) keeps the recovery intact
13:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, now at the session high · RSI 67 · price 1.11367
Higher lows since London open; break above the Asian high retested and held.
London open made a false break below the Asian low to 1.1113, near the yearly low, then reversed into higher lows as USD bulls lightened up ahead of the Fed. In the first hour of NY price cleared the Asian high at 1.1130 and retested it, and is now pressing the 1.1138 session high with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1130, 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1138, 1.1144
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC, about 4h out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below 1.1130 (asian high) would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.1138 session high opens the path to the 1.1144 prior high
Loss of the 1.1121 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 1.1113 london low back in focus
13:32 UTC
Intraday recovery off the yearly low, holding just above the London range · RSI 61 · price 1.11328
Higher lows since London open; London range top at 1.1129 retested twice from above.
London open swept the 1.1113 yearly low and recovered. A higher low at 1.1120 then preceded a London-NY transition break of the 1.1129 range top, with demand stepping in on two retests of that level during NY hours. Price is compressing below a 1.1137 session high tested twice, with USD firm into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 1.1129, 1.1120, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1144
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1129 range top returns price to the London range, with 1.1120 london low next
Acceptance above the 1.1137 session high opens the 1.1144 prior pivot from yesterday's NY session
Loss of the rising trendline and 1.1120 puts the 1.1113 yearly low back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB Thu 13:15 GMT
Higher lows from 1.1113, capped at 1.1137 session high.
A pre-London low at 1.1113, the yearly low, turned into a chain of higher lows at 1.1121 and 1.1129 along a rising line. The noon UTC push through the Asian high was rejected twice at the 1.1137 session high in the first hour of NY. Price is now retesting the Asian high as ranges compress (ATR about 4 pips) ahead of tonight's FOMC, with the USD firm into the event.
Support: 1.1130, 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1153
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1130 asian high puts price inside the Asian range and onto the rising line
Loss of the 1.1121 higher low breaks the recovery sequence and exposes the 1.1113 yearly low
Close above the 1.1137 session high opens the 1.1153 prior high from Tuesday's NY session
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since London open, Asian high broken and retested.
After Tuesday's NY selloff, the London open dipped to 1.1113 (london low, at the yearly low), then built a higher-low chain. The first hour of NY broke the Asian high at 1.1132 and stalled at the 1.1137 session high, just under the 1.1138 prior swing. The pullback held the Asian high on a retest, RSI(14) is near 67, and USD bulls are lightening up into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 1.11317, 1.11206, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11366, 1.11382, 1.11459
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1132 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.1138 prior swing opens the 1.1145 prior range from Tuesday's NY session
Loss of the 1.1121 higher low (rally fib 61.8% zone) breaks the London rally chain and exposes the 1.1113 london low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Intraday rebound off the yearly-low area, higher lows · RSI 64 · price 1.11336
Asian range broken to the upside, HL chain intact.
London open swept below the Asian low to a 1.1113 session low at the yearly-low area, then rebounded. Price cleared the 1.1129 range top and the 1.1131 Asian high into the NY open, reaching a 1.1137 session high. The first pullback is holding the Asian high, RSI(14) is near 64, and the London rebound fits pre-Fed short-covering in an oversold EUR.
Support: 1.11315, 1.11292, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11366, 1.11406, 1.11459
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1131 turns the range break into a false break
A move through the 1.1137 session high exposes the prior swing at 1.1140, then the prior high at 1.1146
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1129 range top reopens the 1.1113 session low
12:32 UTC
Intraday rebound off the lows, early NY · RSI 61 · price 1.1133
Higher lows since London open; 12:00 UTC break above the London cap and Asian high.
London open swept the Asian low into 1.1113, the London low just above the 1.1113 yearly low, and was rejected there. Price then built higher lows and broke the 1.1129 London cap and the 1.1132 Asian high at 12:00 UTC. In early NY it is holding 1.1133 under the 1.1137 session high, with RSI(14) near 61 as oversold EUR firms ahead of tonight's Fed.
Support: 1.1132, 1.1129, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1145
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1129 London cap would turn the range break into a false break
A clean move through the 1.1137 session high exposes the 1.1145 prior shelf from yesterday's NY session
Losing the higher-low line near 1.1121 puts the 1.1113 London low and yearly low back in play
The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday rebound off yearly-low area · RSI 68 · price 1.1136
Higher lows since London open, range top broken.
London open dipped below the Asian low to 1.1113, near the yearly low. Price then built higher lows along a rising trendline. The 1.1131 range top capped three times before giving way late in London, and price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the 24h decline at 1.1138. RSI(14) is near 68 as stretched-EUR short-covering runs into the Fed.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1138, 1.1145, 1.1154
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1131 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the 1.1121 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1113 yearly low back in play
Acceptance above the 1.1138 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1145 prior swing and the 1.1154 24h high
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open, capped at Asian high.
London open swept below the Asian range into the 1.1113 yearly low, then reversed. Since then a higher-lows chain has formed at 1.1116, 1.1120 and 1.1125 as broad USD strength and French spread risk paused. Price is now pressing the 1.1132 Asian high, about the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's sell-off from 1.1154, during the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1125, 1.1120, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138, 1.1145
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 Asian high opens 1.1138 prior swing and the 1.1145 cap cited in the digest
Loss of the 1.1125 higher low, then the 1.1120 swing low, breaks the higher-lows trendline
Return below the 1.1113 yearly low turns the London sweep into a range break lower
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Broad USD strength drove EUR/USD lower from the NY session into Asia. The London open printed the 1.1113 yearly low, then a higher-low chain lifted price back to the 1.1130 london high, where it was rejected twice since 09:30 UTC and is now being retested. The asian high at 1.1132 sits just above, and the higher low at 1.1121 anchors the rising trendline.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1130, 1.1132, 1.1145
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 asian high breaks the Asia-session decline structure, and the 1.1145 prior pivot from Tuesday's NY session is the next reference above
Loss of the 1.1121 higher low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 1.1113 yearly low
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC, followed by the Warsh presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
London range 1.1120–1.1129 after a test of 1.1113, higher lows forming.
London open tested the 1.1113 yearly-low area at 1.11127, the london low, and price has since held a tight 1.1120–1.1129 range with a higher low at 1.11206. The london high at 1.11293 has capped twice. Price sits inside the Asian range, below the asia high at 1.11317, as the USD stalls into today's FOMC.
Support: 1.11206, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 1.11293 reopens the asia high at 1.11317
Loss of the 1.11206 higher low exposes the london low and 1.1113 yearly low
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the london low points toward the 1.1095–1.1100 area cited in the market context
Lower-high chain intact; London compressing inside the Asian range.
The lower-high sequence from yesterday's 1.1154 high ran into a 1.1113 low at 07:00 UTC, right at the yearly low, before buyers stepped in. Late in the London session price is compressed in a 1.1120–1.1129 band: the range top sits at the 38.2% fib of the decline, and the london lows are rising along a short trendline. Pre-Fed squaring is keeping ATR near 4 pips, with price still inside the 1.1113–1.1132 Asian range.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1132
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1132 asian high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1121 london lows and the rising trendline reopens the 1.1113 yearly low
A close below the 1.1113 yearly low would extend the downtrend on this timeframe
Range top at 1.1129 / 38.2% fib: area to watch for rejection or break into the NY open
Lower highs from Asian high; London compressing 1.1120–1.1129.
EUR/USD tagged a session low at 1.1113 just before London open, testing the yearly low, then bounced. The bounce met rejection twice at the 1.1129 london cap. Price is now compressing between rising london lows and lower highs below the 1.1132 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 as USD strength stalls ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1120, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 london low breaks the rising-lows sequence and puts the 1.1113 session low back in play
Acceptance below the 1.1113 session low would extend the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.1129 london cap and the 1.1132 asian high invalidates the lower-highs read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Downtrend paused, London rebound · RSI 56 · price 1.11245
Higher lows off the London low, capped at 1.1129.
London open swept the Asian range low into 1.1113, at the yearly low, as USD firmness ahead of the FOMC extended the slide from Tuesday's 1.1154 high. The rebound has built rising lows, the latest higher low near 1.1122, but the London cap at 1.1129 has rejected price twice and the session is holding a tight 1.1122–1.1129 range just below the Asian high.
Support: 1.11222, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11317, 1.11445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1129 London cap clears the Asian high at 1.1132 and opens the Tue NY shelf near 1.1145
Break of the 1.1122 higher low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 1.1113 London low at the yearly low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian low swept at London open, now ranging 1.1122–1.1129.
Broad USD strength drove the overnight slide through the Asian range low into the London open. The session low printed at 1.1113, at the yearly low, before a 16-pip London bounce to the 1.1129 London high. Mid-London, price is holding 1.1122–1.1129 above the EMA20 and sitting on the EMA50, with RSI(14) at 57 and the pullback low at 1.1122 holding near the 38.2% retrace.
Support: 1.1122, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1132
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1122 pullback low exposes the session low at 1.1113 (yearly low)
Break of 1.1113 negates the sweep read and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 1.1129 London high puts the 1.1132 Asian high back in play
Higher highs and higher lows since London open; pullback to 38.2% fib.
London open made a false break below the 1.1117 Asian low, reaching a 1.1113 London low at the yearly low, then rebounded to a 1.1129 London high with higher lows at 1.1116 and 1.1121. Price is now back at the 38.2% fib of the London rebound near 1.1123, RSI(14) neutral at 49. The bounce is still capped below the 1.1132 Asian high while USD holds two-week highs into FOMC.
Support: 1.1121, 1.11165, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11293, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1121 higher low breaks the London HH/HL sequence and exposes the 1.1117 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1113 London low puts the yearly low back in play
Close above the 1.1129 London high and the 1.1132 Asian high extends the rebound
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce stalling · RSI 54 · price 1.1125
Higher lows off 1.1113, capped inside Asian range.
The overnight slide on firm USD into the Fed tagged 1.1113 near the yearly low at 06:45 UTC. London has since printed higher lows, but the bounce met rejection at the 1.1129 session high, near the 38.2% retrace of the decline and just under the 1.1132 Asian high, with price now pinned at EMA50 mid-London.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1132, 1.1145
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 Asian high breaks the London range and opens yesterday's 1.1145 NY base
Failure to hold the 1.1120 higher low breaks the London trendline and reopens the 1.1113 yearly low
Loss of 1.1113 exposes the 1.1100 round number
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows through London off the 1.1113 low.
The overnight slide, with USD at two-week highs into the Fed, tagged the 1.1113 yearly low just before London. That level drew a rejection, and London has since built a higher low chain. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retracement of the slide near 1.1129, just under the 1.1132 Asian high, with the old 1.1138 prior range and the 1.1145 floor of yesterday's NY range (nyse range) above.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138, 1.1145
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1132 Asian high exposes the 1.1138 prior range and the 1.1145 nyse range
A break below the 1.1121 higher low ends the London higher lows sequence
Loss of the 1.1113 yearly low opens the 1.1100 round number
FOMC 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1154; London bounce off 1.1113 low, higher low at 1.1120.
EURUSD set a fresh session low at 1.1113 into the London open as the USD firmed ahead of the Fed. It then bounced to a 1.1128 London high, a 78.6% retrace of the Asian leg down from 1.1132. Price is pinned at the EMA50 near 1.1125, with a higher low at 1.1120 and RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1128, 1.1132, 1.1144
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1144 NY swing high in view
Loss of the 1.1120 higher low reopens the 1.1113 session low; a break below exposes 1.1100 psych
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce in progress · RSI 57 · price 1.11243
LH/LL through Asia, London-open sweep then higher low.
The overnight grind lower swept the Asian low at London open, printing the london low at 1.1113 before a sharp rejection. The bounce stalled at a session high of 1.1128, still below the Asian high at 1.1132, with a higher low at 1.1120 and price parked near the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib. A firm USD at two-week highs into tonight's Fed has driven the slide.
Support: 1.1120, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11278, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 higher low unwinds the London bounce and puts the 1.1113 london low back in play
Close above the 1.1132 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence from Asia
Break of the london rise trendline signals the bounce is fading
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce stalling · RSI 57 · price 1.11236
Lower highs intact; Asian low swept at London open, then reclaimed.
London open swept the Asian range low to a london low at 1.11127 before a 15-pip rebound, extending the 24h slide from 1.1155 on a firm USD into the FOMC. The bounce met rejection at the 1.11278 london high, just shy of the 38.2% fib, with price holding a higher low near 1.1120 and capped by EMA50 near 1.1125.
Support: 1.1120, 1.11127, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11278, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11317 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1120 higher low reopens the 1.11127 london low
A break of the 1.1110 round number extends the downtrend into the 1.1095–1.1100 area
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, London rebound testing it · RSI 58 · price 1.11263
Lower highs over 24h; London false break of Asian low, now higher low at 1.1120.
The USD-led slide that has held the dollar at two-week highs into today's FOMC extended through the Asian session. London open swept the Asian range low to 1.1113, rejected the break and rebounded to the 1.1128 london high. Price is back above EMA20/EMA50 and above the 61.8% asian decline fib, sitting just under the 1.1132 asian high.
Support: 1.1120, 1.11127
Resistance: 1.11278, 1.11317, 1.11406
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 asian high breaks the Asian range and the lower-high chain, with the 1.1141 prior swing next
Failure to hold the 1.1120 swing low and the london rising line returns price to the London range
Break below the 1.1113 london low resumes lower lows toward the 1.1095–1.1100 support cluster
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY; London sweep of Asian low, trendline break.
London open swept the Asian low at 1.1115 to a 1.1113 session low, into the support cluster flagged in EUR commentary, then reclaimed 1.1120 and broke the descending trendline from yesterday's NY highs. Price is now at the 50–61.8% Asian range retrace near 1.1124 and pressing EMA50, with a higher low at 1.1116 and the dollar firm at two-week highs into FOMC.
Support: 1.1116, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1127, 1.1132, 1.1145
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1116 higher low re-exposes the 1.1113 session low and the 1.1100 round number
Acceptance above the 1.1127 asian swing and the 1.1132 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1145 ny pivot next
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce stalling · RSI 48 · price 1.11206
Lower-high chain since yesterday's NY high; rebound off session low testing 1.1123.
A lower-high, lower-low sequence ran from yesterday's NY high at 1.1153 through Asia to a 1.1113 session low near the London open, with a firmer USD into the FOMC and French spread stress weighing on EUR. The London bounce has poked through the descending line but stalled at the 1.1123 London high, which sits on the 23.6% retracement of the fib. RSI(14) is back to neutral near 48.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11229, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 Asian high would clear the 38.2% fib level and break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1113 session low would confirm a lower low and expose the 1.1100 round number
A drop back under the descending line would undo the London bounce
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's London session; bounce testing descending trendline.
A lower-high chain from the 1.11317 Asian high ran into a fresh session low at 1.11127 ahead of London open. The low was rejected sharply, lifting price to a 1.11229 bounce high at the 50% retrace and the descending trendline. Firm USD into today's Fed decision and wider French spreads keep the slide in place, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 49.
Support: 1.11127, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11229, 1.11274, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11274 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.11317 asian high is next
Failure at the 1.11229 bounce high and trendline, followed by a break of the 1.11127 session low, extends lower-lows toward the 1.1110 round number
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR ~3 pips; London open range expansion may break the tight structure
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, RSI near oversold · RSI 29 · price 1.11146
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range broken lower.
The falling-highs trendline from the 1.1132 Asian high has capped every bounce. Price slipped through the 1.1120 Asian low ahead of London open and printed a London low at 1.1113, the top of the support cluster. EUR stays heavy on French fiscal stress and a firm pre-FOMC USD, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 1.1100 round number next below.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1120, 1.1132
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1120 Asian low and the falling-highs trendline would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.1113 London low exposes the 1.1100 round number
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery above the 1.1132 Asian high would break the lower-high sequence
Lower-high chain from NY high; London open breaking below Asian range low.
London open has slipped below the Asian range low near 1.1117 to 1.1114. That extends the lower-high chain running from yesterday's NY high at 1.1153, with USD holding two-week highs into the FOMC. RSI(14) sits near 29, and the 1.1100 round number and 1.1095 support zone lie just below.
Support: 1.1100, 1.1095
Resistance: 1.1122, 1.1132, 1.1153
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1122 lower high puts the breakdown below the Asian range into question
Reclaiming the 1.1132 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.1100 round number exposes the 1.1095 support zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asian session; price pinned at session low.
The fifth-day EUR slide on a firm pre-FOMC USD has pushed price to a fresh session low at 1.1116 late in the Asia session. Each bounce since midnight has been capped by a descending trendline off the 1.1132 Asian high, with the latest lower high at 1.1122. RSI(14) near 34 is not extreme, and ATR around 2.5 pips reflects thin pre-London trade.
Support: 1.11159, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11221, 1.11317
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.1113 key support extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1100 round number
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1122 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence; reclaiming the 1.1132 Asian high would neutralise it
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the London open may expand the narrow Asian range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 1.11192
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's London session; tight drift at the bottom of the Asian range.
Lower highs have held since yesterday's NY high at 1.1154. French spread stress and a firm USD kept EUR offered, and Asia ground out a fresh session low at 1.1117. Price sits under the minor pivot at 1.1123 and below the descending line from the Asian high at 1.1132, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) only ~2.5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11165, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11232, 1.11274, 1.11317
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1117 session low exposes the 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
M15 close above the 1.1127 swing high and the descending line would break the lower-high chain; the 1.1132 Asian high sits near the 38.2% fib
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the London open could expand the narrow Asian range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY session high; price at the Asian range low before London open.
EUR/USD kept sliding through the Asian session and printed a fresh session low at 1.11165, pressing the bottom of the Asian range ahead of London open as French spread widening and a firm USD into FOMC weigh. Every bounce since the 1.1153 NY high has capped below the descending trendline, the latest lower high sitting at 1.1122. Asian bars have compressed, with ATR near 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.11165, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11218, 1.11317, 1.11533
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1122 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the Asian high at 1.1132 sits next above
Failure to hold the 1.11165 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 psych level
London open and German GfK at 07:00 UTC could expand the compressed Asian range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read
A rejection at the 0.618 of the Asian fib leaves the lower-high chain intact; a clean close above it weakens it
Lower highs under a descending trendline, fresh Asian session low.
EUR/USD has ground lower since the London session yesterday. A descending trendline of lower highs at 1.1138, 1.1132 and 1.1127 is capping price, and late Asia printed a fresh session low at 1.1117 as USD holds two-week highs into the FOMC. RSI(14) sits near 41 and ATR is about 2 pips, a compressed drift ahead of London open with the 1.1113 support just below.
Support: 1.1117, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1117 session low brings the 1.1113 support and the 1.1100 round number into play
M15 close above the 1.1127 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the Asian high at 1.1132 is next
German GfK at 07:00 UTC is a near-term catalyst, and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could reset the intraday range entirely
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.11206
Asian lower highs pressing against a flat 1.1120 floor.
The NY-session slide from the 1.1154 prior high carried into Asia, with French bond stress and a firm USD keeping EUR offered. Asia has printed lower highs from the 1.1132 Asian high while the 1.1120 Asian low has held three times, and price is compressed against that floor ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 2.3 pips, so the tape is very quiet into the Fed.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 asian low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1127 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1132 asian high is next
German GfK at 07:00 UTC, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC with the Warsh presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 46 · price 1.11213
Lower highs and lower lows; tight Asian range at the base.
London and NY extended the slide on French bond stress and a firm USD, with the 1.1154 lower high capping the post-London bounce. Asia has compressed into a 12-pip band under the 1.1132 Asian high, with lower Asian highs capping. Late in Asia, price sits on the 1.1120 Asian low, which has held twice.
Support: 1.11195, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 Asian low exposes the 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1127 swing high and then the 1.1132 Asian high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Fib of the move off the 1.1154 lower high: a recovery stalling below the 38.2% keeps the lower-high chain intact
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and London open can break the Asian range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.11212
Lower highs inside a tight Asian range, session low tested twice.
Tuesday's London and NY selling from 1.1154 to 1.1121, driven by USD at two-week highs and French fiscal stress, carried into a compressed 1.1120–1.1132 Asian range. The 1.11195 Asian low held twice. Price is pinned under a sequence of lower highs from 1.11317, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.11195, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.11195 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.11274 lower high breaks the Asian lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.11317 asian high
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the London open could break the Asian range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in thin Asia trade · RSI 39 · price 1.1120
Lower-high chain from 1.1153; Asian low at 1.1120 under a third test.
EUR/USD has held a lower-high sequence since Tuesday's 1.1153 NY swing, pressed by firm US data and French bond stress, and is now testing the Asian low near 1.1120 for the third time late in the Asia session. The 1.1113 key support sits 7 pips below. Asia ranges are compressed, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1127, 1.1132
What it said to watch
A sustained break of the 1.1120 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 psych level.
A recovery above the 1.1127 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1132 Asian high.
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the London open could expand the Asian range; the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk to this read.
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.11228
Lower highs from 1.1153, lower lows to 1.1120; tight Asian range.
Tuesday's London and NY sessions printed a steady lower-high chain from 1.1153 as firm US data and French bond stress weighed, with late NY pressing to 1.1121. Asia only marginally extended to an asian low at 1.1120 and is now coiling between there and the 1.1127 lower high, just under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR barely 3 pips.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1120 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1127 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1132 asian high next above
GfK at 07:00 UTC around London open can expand the compressed range; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 1.11227
Lower-high chain from 1.1154; tight Asian range pinned near the Asian low.
EUR's slide on French bond stress and a firm USD carried from the 1.1154 NY swing to a 1.1120 Asian low, with every bounce topping lower along the descending trendline. Asia has held a narrow 1.1120–1.1132 range, the 1.1127 lower high capping and the rebound stalling at the asian high near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) sits at 38 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1120 asian low exposes key support at 1.1113 and the 1.1100 round number
A close above the 1.1127 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1132 asian high and the 1.1138 ny swing sit above
London open and German GfK at 07:00 UTC could expand the current 3-pip ATR
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from the NY high, late-Asia consolidation near lows.
Lower highs continue from the 1.1154 NY high. Asia swept the prior NY low at 1.1121 into the 1.1120 asian low, then bounced only to a 1.1127 lower high. Price now sits on the descending trendline, below both EMAs, with ATR near 3 pips in late Asia as pre-FOMC USD strength and French fiscal stress keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11274, 1.11317, 1.11369
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1120 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1113 key support
Close above the 1.1127 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-highs read, with the 1.1132 asian high and the 1.1137 fib 50% above
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and London open could expand the range from the asian low/high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.11244
Lower highs since NY session; tight Asian range 1.1120–1.1132.
The slide extended through NY hours on broad USD strength after the strong durables beat, with lower highs stepping down from 1.1154 to the 1.1138 NY swing high. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing inside a 12-pip Asian range of 1.1120–1.1132. The descending trendline is capping each bounce, and the Asian low sits just above the 1.1113 key support.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 Asian low exposes the 1.1113 key support
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.1132 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1138 NY swing high is next
London open and German GfK (07:00 UTC) are the first tests of the Asian range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.11259
Lower-high/lower-low chain, Asian range 1.1120–1.1132.
Since Tuesday's London open EUR/USD has printed a steady lower-high chain from 1.1173 to the 1.1120 Asian low, with DXY at two-week highs into today's FOMC. Mid-Asia, price has retraced half the Asian leg and sits at ema20 and the descending trendline. ATR is compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
A close above the descending trendline and the 1.1132 asian high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1138 swing high next
Failure to hold the 1.1120 asian low exposes 1.1113 key support
German GfK at 07:00 UTC lands near London open, and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 46 · price 1.11266
Lower highs from the NY high; tight Asia range 1.1120–1.1132.
The lower-high slide from the 1.1154 NY high, driven by a firm USD after Durable Goods and French spread stress, found a floor at the 1.1120 session low late in Asia. Price is now pressed against the descending trendline mid-range, with the 1.1132 Asia high lining up with the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is about 3.3 pips.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138, 1.1154
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1132 Asia high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1138 lower high next
Failure to hold the 1.1120 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then 1.1100 psych
Germany GfK at 07:00 UTC lands ahead of London open; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.11231
Lower highs, marginal new low in Asian range.
The Asia session faded off the 1.1132 asian high and printed a marginal asia low at 1.1120, just under the late-NY trough, extending the London–NY sequence of lower highs as French fiscal stress and a firm USD keep EUR heavy. Price is compressing below EMA20 near 1.1123, with the 1.1126 swing high capping bounces and RSI(14) around 41, not stretched.
Support: 1.11197, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11263, 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1120 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Recovery above the 1.1126 swing high and the 1.1132 asian high breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the intraday downtrend; the late ny high at 1.1138 sits above
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the London open could expand the narrow Asian range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the NY high; Asia session pressing the window low.
Lower highs since the 1.1154 NY high carried EURUSD to a fresh session low at 1.1120 in the Asia session, extending the EUR slide on French spread stress with the DXY above 102.00. The midnight bounce met rejection at the 1.1132 Asian high, a former NY low. RSI(14) is near 36 and not oversold, and ATR is compressed at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1154
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1120 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1113 key support and the 1.1100 round number
A break of the lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.1132 Asian high would stall the downtrend read, with the 1.1154 NY high above
German GfK at 07:00 UTC lands near London open; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 1.1154; Asia extending below NY low.
The sell-off from 1.1154 has printed steady lower highs, with USD firm after the Durable Goods beat and French OAT stress. Mid-Asia, price set a fresh session low at 1.1120, just under the NY low, and is capped by the falling trendline and the 1.1132 asian high, near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) sits near 38, not oversold, and the 1.1113 key support is about 11 pips below.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 asian high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1138 lower high is next
Failure to hold the 1.1120 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC lands into London open; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read later today
Lower-high chain; Asian range broken to the downside, price at session low.
EUR/USD slipped out of the 1.1124–1.1132 Asian range after 00:00 UTC and is printing session lows near 1.1120, extending the lower-highs sequence from the 1.1154 NY high as French spread stress and a firm USD keep the pair offered. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched, and the 1.1113 key support sits about 7 pips below.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11263, 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
Close back above the 1.1126 swing high and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read; the asian high at 1.1132 and ny swing hi at 1.1138 sit above
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday Asia, early Asian range forming at lows.
The lower-high chain has held since Tuesday's 1.1174 Asia high. London broke 1.1155 and NY ground out lower lows as French spread stress and a firm dollar weighed on EUR. Early Asia has printed a marginal new session low at 1.1120, just under Tuesday's NY low, with the Asian range so far 1.1120–1.1132 and the falling trendline capping near the Asian high.
Support: 1.11204, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1132 asian high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1138 lower high is next
Failure to hold the 1.1120 session low exposes 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
The FOMC decision and Warsh presser Wed 18:00/18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.11217
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low breaking.
The London rebound high at 1.1154 capped the session. Late NY then broke the 1.1132 London low, and early Asia has broken below the Asian range to a fresh session low at 1.1120, with the key support at 1.1113 now about 9 pips away. RSI(14) sits near 38, not oversold, as French spread stress and a firm pre-FOMC dollar keep EUR offered.
Support: 1.1120, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1132, 1.1138, 1.1154
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1113 key support exposes the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1132 asian high, then the 1.1138 swing high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Fib retracement of the 1.1154 rebound high to 1.1120 leg: the 38.2–50% zone near 1.1133–1.1137 overlaps the asian high and swing high
German GfK at 07:00 UTC (~6h) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia consolidating near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.11225
Lower highs from NY high; Asian range pressing swing low.
Tuesday's London-open selloff, driven by French bond stress and a firm dollar, set lower highs from the 1.1154 NY high. The late-NY leg printed a 1.1121 swing low. Early Asia session has held a tight 1.1124–1.1132 range and is now pressing its low, with RSI(14) near 40 and the 1.1113 key support about 10 pips below.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1121 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1113 key support, then the 1.1100 round number
Recovery above the 1.1132 Asian high and the 1.1138 lower high (near the 50% fib of the NY high-to-swing low drop) breaks the intraday downtrend read
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and positioning into the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.11258
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight Asian range forming above the NY low.
Lower highs from the 1.1154 session high through the 1.1138 lower high led to a late-NY break to a 1.11214 NY low, with pre-Fed USD firmness and French spread stress weighing on EUR. Early Asia is compressing between 1.1124 and the 1.11317 Asian high, still below the descending trendline, RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11317 Asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1138 lower high next above
Failure to hold the 1.11214 NY low exposes the 1.1113 support band, then the 1.1100 round number
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.11294
Lower highs through London and NY; tight post-rollover range above the NY low.
London broke below the 1.1163–1.1174 Asian range, and NY printed successive lower highs. A late-NY slide from the 1.1138 swing high reached a 1.1121 NY low, below the 1.1135 band, as pre-Fed USD demand and French spread stress weighed on EUR. Early Asia is holding a tight 1.1124–1.1132 range, with the 1.1132 Asia high rejected at the 61.8% retrace of that drop and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11317, 1.11382
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1132 Asia high and 61.8% retrace would put the 1.1138 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1121 NY low leaves the 1.1113 key support exposed
German GfK at 07:00 UTC around London open could break the Asia range
FOMC decision and Warsh presser Wed 18:00/18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading after NY · RSI 40 · price 1.11267
Lower highs/lower lows since London open; tight post-NY base.
London open broke below the 1.1160 Asian range low, and price has stepped lower since. The 1.1154 bounce high capped the London-NY transition, and NY extended to a 1.1121 ny low on French spread stress and a pre-FOMC USD bid. Early Asia is compressing between 1.1124 and the 1.1131 late high, pinned under the falling trendline; RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 2.4 pips.
Support: 1.11214, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11308, 1.11382, 1.11541
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1131 late high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 1.1138 swing high next
Loss of the 1.1121 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1113 key support
Only a recovery through the 1.1154 bounce high would invalidate the session downtrend read
German GfK at 07:00 UTC and the Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC/Warsh presser could materially shift this read