21:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above October low · RSI 41 · price 1.11745
LH/LL chain since mid-September; two-week consolidation 1.1113–1.1269.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the mid-September break of the 1.1570–1.1650 shelf. It has printed lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1711 August high to the 1.1113 oct low, and price sits below a falling EMA(50) and below the ema20 near 1.1220. The last two weeks have compressed into a 1.1113–1.1269 consolidation. The mid-October bounce stalled at the 1.1269 swing high, just above the 23.6% retracement, and was capped under the falling trendline. Soft eurozone PMIs and French fiscal stress have since pressed spot back toward the 1.1152 swing low.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1269, 1.1340
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.1113 oct low and the 1.1100 psych level extends the lower-low chain and ends the consolidation read
- Close back above the ema20 at 1.1220 and the 1.1269 swing high breaks the falling trendline and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1340
- Holding the 1.1152 swing low keeps price inside the two-week consolidation
- FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) and the ECB decision (Thu 13:15 UTC) could materially shift this read