21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at lows · RSI 43 · price 1.13916
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654; basing in 1.1359–1.1410 range.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-month top, a third weekly decline driven by the Fed's hawkish hike, US 10y yields above 5% and Brent above $108. Price is now in a tight consolidation between the 1.1359 swing low and the 1.1410 range top, where the bounce was rejected twice at the EMA20 and the 38.2% fib of the drop from 1.1495. ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 40–80 pip impulse bars, which points to a pending range break.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1445, 1.1495
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.1410 range top breaks the consolidation and exposes the falling trendline and 61.8% fib near 1.1445
- Failure to hold the 1.1359 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low and brings the 1.1350 round number into play
- Lower-high sequence stays intact while price holds below the 1.1495 prior high
- Tue HICP and Wed ADP/PCE could break the ATR compression in either direction