Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; tight base above 1.1353.
EURUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.1654, with the break below the 1.1455-1.1498 prior range extending the slide to a third straight weekly decline as Fed-hike pricing and $100+ Brent outweighed firm Eurozone PMI and IFO beats. Price has since compressed into a narrow base between the 1.1353 swing low and the 1.1410 lower high, capped by the descending lower-highs trendline and trading below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 20 pips is contracting and RSI(14) is neutral in the low 40s, so the base looks like a pause in the downtrend rather than a reversal.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1410 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 38.2% fib retracement into play, with the 1.1455 prior range edge above
Failure to hold the 1.1353 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
US JOLTS Tue and ADP Wed ahead of PCE and NFP are the main USD-side risks to the compression
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top; week-long base between 1.1353 and 1.1410.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top, with the 1.1495 lower high feeding a slide to a fresh swing low at 1.1353. That slide was driven by a firm USD on rising Fed-hike odds and Brent above $100. The latest bounce stalled at the 1.1410 swing high, just above the 38.2% retracement of that leg, and price sits under the falling lower-highs trendline with EMA20 below EMA50. ATR(14) has contracted to about 20 pips from 30+ during the breakdown, so the 1.1353–1.1410 base is compressing against its floor.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1441, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1353 swing low (1.1350 pivot) extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1300 round number
H4 close above the 1.1410 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; 61.8% fib at 1.1441 and the 1.1495 lower high sit above
Tue EZ HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could shift October ECB hike odds and trigger short-covering from crowded EUR shorts
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak Tue, then PCE and NFP later in the week, could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 43 · price 1.13743
Lower highs / lower lows since 1.1654; 1.1359-1.1410 range for a week.
EURUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1654 early-month peak. EMA20 has stayed below EMA50 throughout, with the decline driven by the hawkish Fed repricing, 2007-high UST yields and Brent above $100. For the past week price has compressed between the 1.1359 swing low and a 1.1410 range top, where the last bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1495 lower high to 1.1359 leg and under the lower-highs trendline. ATR(14) near 20 pips is roughly half the size of the breakdown bars, pointing to a compression phase inside the downtrend.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1429, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 psych level
H4 close above the 1.1410 range top and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read and exposes the 1.1429 prior low
Recovery through 1.1495, the last lower high, would break the swing structure
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC today, plus HICP and JOLTS on Tuesday, could materially shift this read; PCE and NFP follow later in the week
Lower highs and lower lows; tight 1.1359–1.1410 base.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 top. Each shelf has given way in steps, down to a 1.1359 swing low, the lowest since late July, as a hawkish Fed and firm oil weighed on EUR. Over the past four days price has held a 1.1359–1.1410 consolidation, and the bounce stalled at the 1.1410 range high, which sits right at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1495 lower high to 1.1359 leg. EMA20 stays below EMA50, and ATR(14) has eased to about 20 pips from the breakdown days, a compression signal.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1495
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1410 range high and EMA20 would break the lower-high sequence, bringing the 1.1430 broken low into play
Failure to hold the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.1350 psych level
Only a recovery through the 1.1495 lower high would negate the downtrend read
Tue HICP and Wed German CPI could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
US JOLTS Tue plus PCE and NFP later this week remain the main USD-side risk to the base
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 36 · price 1.13856
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654; tight base 1.1359-1.1410.
The lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 1.1654 top has held for three weeks. The Fed's hike, US yields above 5% and the oil shock drove successive breakdowns through 1.1530 and 1.1455 into the 1.1359 swing low. The rebound from that low stalled almost exactly at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1495-1.1359 leg (1.1410), capped by the falling trendline, and price sits below both EMAs. ATR(14) near 20 pips is roughly half the breakdown-bar ranges, a compression that often comes before the next directional push, while the recent low at 1.1373 marks the floor of the base.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1359 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 38.2% fib breaks the falling trendline and weakens the lower-high structure; prior range base near 1.1455 is next
Loss of the 1.1373 recent low returns price to the swing low
Tue HICP and Wed ADP/PCE could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.13779
Lower highs since 1.1654; tight base 1.1359–1.1410.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since the 1.1654 peak, with the mid-month break below 1.1460 extending the leg to a 1.1359 swing low on a hawkish Fed, 10y yields above 5% and Brent above $108. Price has since compressed into a 1.1359–1.1410 base, with the bounce capped twice at the range top near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 1.1495 lower high. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 21 pips reflects a quiet regime just above the 1.1350 round number.
Support: 1.13589, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.14953
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1410 range top and 38.2% fib reopens the 1.1430 prior low, with the 1.1495 lower high the structural pivot for the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1359 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
Euro-area HICP/CPI prints Tue–Wed with crowded EUR shorts could trigger an outsized move out of the base
US ADP and PCE on Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A trendline break above the lower highs line would mark the first change in swing structure