EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower after NY spike · RSI 53 · price 1.13712
Lower highs since 1.1388 spike; tight 1.1365–1.1374 early-Asia range.
NY hours swept down to the 1.1353 session low. The rebound to the 1.1388 spike high was rejected and has since faded into a lower-high sequence, with the pair capped below the 1.1391 monday high after Lagarde's 'measured' line. Price is now pinned in a 10-pip early-Asia range near the 50% fib of the NY spike, above the 1.1365 late NY low, with RSI(14) flat at 53 and ATR(14) compressed to ~2.6 pips.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1374 asia high tests the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1388 spike high
Loss of the 1.1365 late NY low exposes the 1.1353 session low
Close above the 1.1391 monday high negates the lower-high sequence
Eurozone HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could expand the compressed range
23:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, flat in early Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.13712
Lower highs off the 1.1391 Monday high; tight post-close range at 1.1365–1.1374.
London rejected a retest of the 1.1391 Monday high, and NY extended the drop to a 1.1353 day low. A spike to 1.1388 on Iran sanctions-relief headlines faded fast, leaving a spike high and lower highs. Early Asia is coiling between the 1.1365 late NY low and the 1.1374 Asia high, at the 50% retracement of the London-NY drop and flat on the EMAs, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.13652, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1374 Asia high breaks the post-close range and brings the 1.1388 spike high into view
Failure to hold the 1.1365 late NY low exposes the 1.1353 day low
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read during London
US-Iran headlines already produced one 30-pip spike; a repeat can break the range
23:16 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 1.13713
Tight 1.1365–1.1374 band inside the 1.1353–1.1390 day range.
London faded Monday's 1.1390 Asia-session day high to a 1.1353 NY low as firm US yields and oil weighed on EUR. The NY-afternoon bounce to 1.1388 met rejection, and price has since compressed between the 1.1365 late low and 1.1374 late high into early Tuesday Asia, pinned near the 50% level of that bounce. RSI(14) sits mid-50s and EMA20/50 are flat, with no directional setup on this timeframe.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1390
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1365 late low (61.8% of the NY bounce) exposes the 1.1353 NY low
A close above the 1.1374 late high puts the 1.1388–1.1390 day-high zone back in focus
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 1.13714
Tight post-rollover range 1.1364–1.1374 below lower highs.
Monday's NY session hit a 1.1353 day low. The rebound to the 1.1388 spike high was rejected below the Asian high at 1.1391, leaving lower highs, with EUR held down by oil and US yields. Price is now compressed in a 1.1364–1.1374 range in thin early Asia trade, sitting near the midpoint of the NY low-to-spike move, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price hugging both EMAs.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1374 range top opens a retest of the 1.1388 spike high and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.1364 range base exposes the 1.1353 day low
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read; positioning is crowded short EUR
22:46 UTC
Intraday lower highs, stalling in early Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.13726
London and NY both rejected the 1.1390 Asian high on Monday. The slide to the 1.1353 Monday low came as Iran headlines pushed Brent above $100 and lifted US yields. Early Asia is compressing above the late-NY lows at 1.1365, with price near the 50% retrace of the London-NY drop and lower highs capping below the 1.1384 NY high.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1376, 1.1384, 1.1390
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 61.8 at 1.1376 opens the 1.1384 NY high
Break of the late-NY lows at 1.1365 exposes the 1.1353 Monday low
Clearing the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1390 Asian high negates the lower-high sequence
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London was rejected just under the 1.1391 asia high and NY sold to a 1.1353 day low. The Iran sanctions-relief headlines then drove a spike high at 1.1388 that fully faded. Price has since held a late base near 1.1365, the 61.8% of the spike retrace, and is pressing the 1.1378 ny pivot in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 ny pivot opens the 1.1388 spike high and 1.1391 asia high
Loss of the 1.1365 late base exposes the 1.1353 day low
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY spike, thin post-NY consolidation.
London was rejected at the 1.1390 Asian high, and NY printed a 1.1353 session low. The Iran sanctions-relief headline then spiked price to 1.1388, but the 1.1384 spike high capped two tests, and price has since faded into lower highs under a descending resistance line. It is now idling in a thin 1.1364–1.1372 band after NY close, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13723, 1.13836, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1372 lower high breaks the descending resistance line
Recovery through the 1.1384 spike high reopens the 1.1390 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1364 swing low exposes the 1.1353 session low
EZ HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran or Brent headlines have already produced one 20-pip spike this session
Lower highs since London rejection at 1.1390; late-NY drift holding above 1.1364.
London broke the Asian low, then rejected just under the 1.1391 asian high and ground down to a 1.1353 day low in NY. A 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.1388 spike high on Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming USD failed, and lower highs have since compressed price onto 1.1364, the evening low and 61.8% of that spike, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips in thin rollover trade.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13723, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1364 evening low exposes the 1.1353 day low
Close above the 1.1372 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the spike high
Asia session range likely thin ahead of EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC, which could materially shift this read
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak later Tuesday
21:31 UTC
Flat to heavy, lower highs since London · RSI 49 · price 1.13685
Compressing between 1.1364 higher low and 1.1372 late high.
London rejected the Asian high at 1.1390, and NY extended to a 1.1353 session low. The Iran sanctions-relief headline then drove a spike high at 1.1388, which has retraced about 55% (spike retrace). Price is now sitting at 1.1369 into the rollover, capped by the lower highs and a late high at 1.1372, holding a higher low at 1.1364, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13723, 1.13876, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1372 late high opens a retest of the lower-highs line near the 1.1384–1.1388 spike high
Loss of the 1.1364 higher low returns focus to the 1.1353 session low
Asian high 1.1390 remains the ceiling of the session range
Eurozone HICP Tue 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read at London open
Lower highs from 1.1390; tight 1.1364–1.1378 drift after NY.
London opened with a dip below the Asian range, then a rejection at the Asian high near 1.1390. NY pressed to a session low at 1.1353 before a spike to 1.1388 on the Iran sanctions-relief report, which faded into a chain of lower highs. Price is now drifting in thin post-NY trade between the 50% and 61.8% of the NY rebound fib, just under both EMAs, capped by the 1.1378 lower high.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13777, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1364 evening low exposes the 1.1353 session low
Break above the 1.1378 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1390 Asian high back in play
Euro-area HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) Tuesday could materially shift this read
Oil and US-Iran headlines have already driven one 30-pip spike today
21:01 UTC
Sideways after a down-leg, momentum flat · RSI 42 · price 1.13703
Lower highs from the 1.1391 Asian high, higher low at 1.1364; contracting range.
Supply capped the 1.1391 Asian high twice (Asia, London open) before a grind to the 1.1353 session low in early NY as oil and yields firmed USD. The 16:15 UTC Iran sanctions-report spike to 1.1388 (spike high) was rejected, and price is now flat at 1.1370 on EMA20 after NY close. It sits between the 1.1364 higher low and the 1.1378 lower high, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13778, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1364 higher low reopens the 1.1353 session low
M15 close above the 1.1378 lower high brings the 1.1388 spike high and 1.1391 Asian high back into play
Tuesday Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US-Iran / Brent headlines have already produced one 20-pip spike today
20:46 UTC
Range after gap lower, lower highs intact · RSI 50 · price 1.13707
Lower highs from Asian high; late-NY consolidation at 50% fib.
EURUSD gapped about 14 pips lower at the weekly open after the US rejected Iran's proposal. The Asian high at 1.1391 capped London, and NY swept down to a session low at 1.1353. The sanctions-relief headline then spiked price to 1.1388, and it faded again beneath the lower-highs trendline. Price is now flat at the 50% fib near 1.1370 after NY close, holding above the late NY low at 1.1364 with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13836, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1384 spike high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1364 late NY low (near the 61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1353 session low
Asian high at 1.1391 is the upper bound of the day's range
Eurozone HICP Tue 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC (~10h out) could materially shift this read
Oil and Iran headlines drove intraday spikes; a fresh headline can override the Asian-session range
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 50 · price 1.13697
Lower highs from 1.1390; tight 1.1364–1.1372 range below ema20.
EUR gapped lower on the Iran-driven oil and yield bid. London broke the Asian range low after a rejection at the 1.1390 asian high, and the London-NY drop set a 1.1353 session low. The sanctions-relief spike to 1.1386 met rejection and faded, and price is now compressing above the 1.1364 late low, capped by ema20/50% at 1.1372 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1372, 1.1386, 1.1390
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1372 ema20/50% of the London-NY drop reopens the 1.1386 rejection zone
Loss of the 1.1364 late low exposes the 1.1353 session low
A break of the 1.1353 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 pivot
Reclaim of the 1.1390 asian high negates the downtrend read
EZ HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 42 · price 1.13669
Lower highs from 1.1390 below the Asian high; drifting above the 1.1353 session low.
Monday opened with a gap lower from Friday's 1.1392 close as oil and yields lifted USD. The Asian high at 1.1391 capped London, and NY printed a session low at 1.1353. The Iran-sanctions headline spike to 1.1388 was rejected, leaving a lower high. Price is now sitting just above the evening low at 1.1364, below the evening cap at 1.1377, with ATR compressing into the late NY session.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1377 evening cap puts the 1.1388 lower high back in play; a break there reaches the 1.1391 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1364 evening low exposes the 1.1353 session low
Tuesday's Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US-Iran headlines have already driven sharp two-way spikes today
Lower highs from 1.1390; ranging 1.1364–1.1384 after the rejected sanctions-headline spike.
London broke the Asian low and was rejected just under the 1.1391 Asian high. The oil and yield bid then took NY to a 1.1353 session low. The Iran sanctions headline spiked price to a 1.1388 spike high that faded, leaving a lower high at 1.1384, and late NY is drifting just above the 1.1364 swing low, near the 50% level of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13836, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1384 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1388 spike high and 1.1391 Asian high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1364 swing low reopens the 1.1353 session low
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Iran/oil headlines have already produced one 20-pip spike this session
19:46 UTC
Intraday down, now flat and compressing · RSI 50 · price 1.13692
Lower highs from London high, higher low off day low.
After the weekend gap lower, London broke the Asian range low near 1.1373 and was rejected at the 1.1390 london high. NY then extended to a 1.1353 day low before the Iran sanctions-relief headline spiked price to the 1.1388 spike high, which faded to 1.1384 and then back through the 1.1377 ny shelf. Late NY is holding between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the rebound fib, just above the 1.1364 evening low, with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.13876, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1377 ny shelf and the lower highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1364 evening low exposes the 1.1353 day low
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC Tue, with Lagarde at 11:00, could materially shift this read at the London open
Further US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines already produced one 20-pip spike this session
Lower highs from 1.1390 Asian high; headline spike retraced; price near 61.8%.
Monday opened with a 14-pip weekend gap lower. London broke the Asian range, and the 08:00 UTC retest of the 1.1390 Asian high was rejected, which set up lower highs into a 1.1353 session low during NY hours. The late-NY spike to 1.1388 on the Iran sanctions-relief headline stalled at a lower high near 1.1384 and has since retraced to its 61.8% near 1.1366, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) at 46 in quieter after-NY trade.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13765, 1.13836, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1364 intraday low extends the fade toward the 1.1353 session low
Reclaim of the 1.1377 shelf and a close above the 1.1384 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Asian high at 1.1390 remains the cap on the day's range
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines and HICP at 07:00 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs under the Asian high; late-NY drift inside the 1.1353–1.1388 session range.
Monday gapped about 14 pips lower. London broke the Asian low, and NY printed a 1.1353 session low before US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines drove a 16:15 UTC spike to 1.1388. That spike high was rejected as another lower high under the 1.1390 asian high. Late NY is slipping from the 1.1378 range top, near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg, toward the 1.1363 ny pm low, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.1363, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1363 ny pm low exposes the 1.1353 session low
Reclaim of the 1.1378 range top and the lower-highs trendline would shift the read to range
Further US-Iran sanctions headlines drove the spike high and can produce similar outsized bars
Euro-area HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs under Asian high; post-spike range 1.1369–1.1384.
After the weekend gap lower, London and NY broke under the Asian range to a 1.1353 session low before Iran sanctions-relief headlines drove a 16:15 UTC spike that capped under the 1.1391 Asian high. Price has since given back about 44% of that spike to 1.1372. It sits flat on EMA20/50, holding a 1.1369 higher low, with lower highs intact.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1384 spike high reopens the 1.1391 Asian high and the lower-highs line
Loss of the 1.1369 higher low exposes the 1.1353 session low and deeper spike fib retracement
US-Iran sanctions headlines and Tuesday's HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, higher lows since 1.1353.
EURUSD gapped down from Friday's 1.1392 close as USD firmed on Fed-hike bets and $100 Brent. London broke the Asian range low and NY extended to a 1.1353 day low. A spike to 1.1388 was rejected, and a 1.1384 lower high followed. Price is now compressing near 1.1376 in late NY, holding a 1.1369 higher low around the 38.2% fib of the bounce.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1384, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1369 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.1353 day low back in play
Close above the 1.1384 lower high reopens the 1.1391 asian high and the unfilled gap to Friday's close
1.1400 psych / option strike caps above the gap
EUR HICP Tue 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1390 London high; compressing 1.1369–1.1384 after 1.1353 NY low.
Monday gapped ~14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close. London dipped under the Asian range, was rejected at the 1.1391 Asia high and ground to a 1.1353 day low in NY. The 16:15 UTC Iran sanctions-relief headline spike high at 1.1388 was sold, and a further lower high printed at 1.1384. Price now sits at the 61.8% of the London-NY drop, 1.1376, holding above the 1.1369 swing low.
Support: 1.13686, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13836, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1384 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence, with the 1.1388 spike high and 1.1391 Asia high just above
Loss of the 1.1369 swing low puts the 1.1353 day low back in play
US-Iran and oil headlines drove the NY spike; fresh headlines could extend the 2–3x ATR swings seen late session
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalled, ranging late NY · RSI 53 · price 1.13757
London/NY lower highs broken by one NY spike; now a 1.1371–1.1388 range.
The Sunday gap down from 1.1392 stayed unfilled. London broke the Asian low and ground down to a 1.1353 NY low. A sharp NY spike to the 1.1388 spike high followed as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the dollar, and both that high and a 1.1384 retest were rejected. Price now sits near the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound, hugging the EMAs with RSI(14) ~53, in a 1.1371–1.1388 range with no clear setup in play.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1392
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1388 spike high reopens the 1.1392 gap fill from Friday's close
Failure to hold the 1.1371 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1353 ny low
US-Iran / oil headlines drove the NY spike and could break the range again after NY close
Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC Tue) and Lagarde could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
London selloff, basing in late NY · RSI 54 · price 1.13754
Lower highs from London open; late-NY range 1.1369–1.1388 with rising lows.
After a gap lower at the open, London broke the Asian range low and sold off from the 1.1391 Asian high to a 1.1353 session low. In NY, Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the dollar and drove a spike to 1.1388 that was rejected. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace near 1.1376, inside a late-NY range with rising lows beneath and EMA50 flat just below.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1388 NY high and 1.1391 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence from the London open
Loss of the 1.1369 higher low and the rising-lows line returns focus to the 1.1353 session low
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC Tue, plus US-Iran and oil headlines, could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend reversing, higher low in place · RSI 59 · price 1.13811
V-recovery from 1.1353 low; higher low 1.1369 below spike high 1.1388.
Monday gapped 14 pips lower and London-NY sold down from the 1.1390 area to a 1.1353 session low. A 16:15 UTC spike to 1.1388 coincided with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the dollar, and the market rejected that spike high. Late NY has since printed a higher low at 1.1369, with price near the 78.6% fib of the London-NY decline.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1388 spike high puts the 1.1391 asian high and weekend gap fill in play, then the 1.14 strike
Break back below the 1.1369 higher low and the rising support trendline reopens the 1.1353 session low
Tuesday HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) are the next event risk after a thin Asia session
Lower highs/lower lows from 1.1390 Asian high; first higher low at 1.1363.
EUR/USD gapped lower at the open as $100+ Brent and Fed-hike pricing weighed, then carved lower highs from the 1.1390 Asian high to a 1.1353 session low in NY. A late-NY spike to the 1.1388 spike high was sold within a bar, and price is back near the 50% retrace at 1.1372, holding above the 1.1363 higher low with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.1363, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1376, 1.1388, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1376 61.8% fib reopens the 1.1388 spike high; the 1.1400 option strike sits beyond
Failure to hold the 1.1363 higher low exposes the 1.1353 session low and the 1.1350 pivot
Lower highs / lower lows since London open; higher low at 1.1364 after the 1.1353 session low.
After a gap lower at the weekly open, London broke the Asian range low and printed lower highs down to the 1.1353 session low, with Brent above $100 and elevated Fed-hike bets keeping USD firm. A late-NY rally to the 1.1388 spike high stalled below the Asia high and fully faded. Price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1388, 1.1391
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1364 higher low reopens the 1.1353 session low
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1391 Asia high sits just above
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high 1.1390 to session low 1.1353, broken by one-bar 22-pip spike back inside Asian range.
Monday opened on a ~14-pip gap below Friday's close as oil and Fed-hike bets firmed USD. London was rejected at the asian high near 1.1390, and NY pressed the session low at 1.1353, just above the 1.1350 pivot. A single late-NY bar then lifted price 22 pips through the London downtrend line to 1.1381. That leaves price just under the 1.13876 spike high, near the 75% level of the London high-low fib, with the 1.1400 psych level above.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.13876, 1.1390, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1390 asian high negates the London downtrend line and puts 1.1400 psych in play
Failure to hold 1.1373 asian low after the spike returns focus to the 1.1353 session low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could reverse or extend the late-NY spike
EZ HICP Tue 07:00 UTC is the next scheduled volatility point
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; post-low bounce capped below 1.1372.
EUR/USD gapped roughly 14 pips lower at the open and held a 1.1373–1.1391 Asian range. London broke below the Asian low and saw rejection at the asian high near 1.1390. The pair then printed a lower high at 1.1380 and a session low at 1.1353 in NY as oil above $100 and Fed-hike pricing kept USD firm. After London close it is drifting at 1.1365, below both EMAs, with the swing high at 1.1371 sitting on the lower-high trendline and near the 61.8% fib.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13714, 1.13803, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1371 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1353 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1350 psych level
Recapture of the 1.1380 lower high would neutralise the NY downtrend structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift this read inside the next few bars
Lower highs capped by a falling trendline; NY low at 1.1353 bought back, bounce stalled at 50% fib.
London open was rejected at the 1.1390 Asian high, and the session drop has since printed lower highs along a falling trendline, with Brent above $100 and Fed-hike bets weighing on EUR. NY's push to a 1.1353 session low was bought back, but the bounce stalled at the 50% fib near 1.1371; price sits under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44 after London close.
Support: 1.13604, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13714, 1.13803, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1371 50% fib and falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.1380 lower high and 1.1390 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1360 pivot low reopens the 1.1353 session low, with the 1.1350 round number beneath
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tue HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high, NY bounce capped at the descending trendline.
EUR gapped about 14 pips lower at the open, and London's early spike was rejected at the Asian high near 1.1390. That began a lower-high sequence as Brent above $100 and Fed-hike bets weighed. NY printed a session low at 1.1353, then set a higher low at 1.1361, but the bounce high at 1.1371 stalled at the 50% fib and the descending trendline, leaving price on the 38.2% level after London close.
Support: 1.13606, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13714, 1.13803, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1371 bounce high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1380 lower high
Loss of the 1.1361 higher low re-exposes the 1.1353 session low; acceptance below it extends the downtrend
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high 1.1390; NY higher low at 1.1360 after 1.1353 low.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 1.1392 close. London was rejected at the 1.1390 London high, and a lower-high chain led to a 1.1353 session low in NY, just above the 1.1350 pivot, as $100+ Brent and hawkish Fed repricing kept EUR offered. The late-NY bounce off a 1.1360 higher low is now retesting the descending trendline and the fib 50% near 1.1372.
Support: 1.1360, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13716, 1.13803, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1360 higher low reopens the 1.1353 session low and the 1.1350 pivot
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, after London close, could shift this read
Lower highs / lower lows since London open; wick rejection at 1.1353.
After a gap-lower open, London was rejected at the asian high near 1.1390, broke the Asian low, and the sell-off ran through NY hours to a 1.1353 session low as oil above $100 and hawkish Fed pricing weighed on EUR. The long lower wick there, just above 1.1350 psych support, shows demand absorbing late in NY, but price is still under EMA20 and below the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1380, 1.1390
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1350 psych confirms a fresh lower-low beneath the session low
Close above the 1.1370 ny high breaks the lower-high chain; 38.2% of the sell-off sits near 1.1367
A move back to the 1.1380 lower high tests the lower-highs trendline from the London open
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and HICP at 07:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 34 · price 1.13576
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the Asian high rejection, pressing the session low.
Monday opened on a 14-pip weekend gap lower as oil and Fed repricing kept USD firm. London's push back to the 1.1390 asian high was rejected, and a string of lower highs has carried price to a fresh session low at 1.1357. Lagarde's 13:30 UTC speech gave EUR no lift; RSI(14) sits near 34 with the 1.1350 pivot just below.
Support: 1.13565, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1390
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1357 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1350 pivot
Recovery above the 1.1370 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and stalls the sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tuesday's HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 44 · price 1.13678
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the London high, basing after sweep of session low.
EUR/USD gapped lower on the weekly open. London's rally to the 1.1390 london high nearly filled that gap before rejecting. A lower-highs sequence (1.1390, 1.1380 midday high, 1.1370) then carried price to a 1.1357 session low, with Brent-led EUR weakness and Lagarde's 'middle path' remarks giving hike bets little support. The Lagarde-hour sweep below 1.1360 closed back inside and printed a 1.1360 higher low. Price is capped under the 1.1370 lower high and just below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.13604, 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13702, 1.13803, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1370 lower high (38.2% of the 1.1390–1.1357 drop) and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1375 breaks the chain toward the 1.1380 midday high
Loss of the 1.1360 higher low and the 1.1357 session low exposes the 1.1350 pivot
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 41 · price 1.13664
Lower highs at 1.1390, 1.1380 and 1.1370; NY spike low at 1.1357 bought back.
EURUSD opened the week with a 14-pip gap lower as oil and hawkish Fed pricing lifted USD. London rejected the Asian range top at the 1.1390 london high and broke the Asian low, leaving a descending trendline of lower highs at 1.1380 and 1.1370. The NY open and Lagarde's 13:30 UTC speech brought a spike to a 1.1357 session low that was bought back; price is pinned under the 1.1370 lower high, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13702, 1.13803, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1370 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.1380 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1357 session low puts the 1.1350 pivot in play
Recovery toward the 1.1390 london high would test the Asian range top that rejected earlier
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from London high; NY open swept to new session low.
Monday gapped lower, and London's push was rejected just under the Asian high at 1.1391. Price has since stepped down through lower highs at 1.1380 (midday high) and 1.1370. The NY open swept to a 1.1357 session low beside the 1.1356 100wma before snapping back. RSI(14) sits near 35, with Brent above $100 and hawkish Fed pricing keeping EUR heavy.
Support: 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13702, 1.13803, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1370 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
A close above the 1.1380 midday high clears the lower-high trendline and invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1357 session low exposes the 1.1350 psych level
Asian high 1.1391 is the ceiling of the London high to NY low move
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing into the NY close
14:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 43 · price 1.13663
LH/LL chain since 1.1390 rejection; NY-open wick below 1.1360.
Monday opened with a 14-pip gap lower. London was rejected at the asian high near 1.1390, then printed a lower high at 1.1380 into a drop to 1.1357 at the NY open, with Brent above $100 and hawkish Fed repricing weighing on EUR. The ny low bar swept the 1.1361 London low and closed back near 1.1367; RSI(14) is neutral at 43 with EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13735, 1.13803, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1357 ny low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 1.1350 round number next
Recovery through the fib 50% at 1.1373 and a close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the intraday downtrend
Asian high at 1.1391 caps the day's range; only a reclaim changes the session structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could extend or reverse the NY move
HICP Tue 07:00 UTC is the next major EUR-side risk after this session
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 41 · price 1.13668
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1390 rejection; long-wick session low at 1.1357.
EURUSD gapped lower at the open on firm USD and oil. London's push back to the 1.1390 Asian high was rejected, and price has since printed lower highs at 1.1380 and lower lows. During Lagarde's 13:30 UTC remarks it spiked to a 1.1357 session low, but that wick was bought back to 1.1367 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13803, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high chain toward the 1.1390 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1357 session low exposes the 1.1350 round number
Further Lagarde headlines and Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London into NY · RSI 30 · price 1.1362
Lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range; fresh session low.
EURUSD gapped lower at the open as the dollar firmed and Brent pushed above $107. London produced a rejection at the 1.1390 Asian high, followed by lower highs at 1.1390 and a 1.1380 lower high. The first hour of NY broke the 1.1366 prior lows to a 1.1361 session low, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1366, 1.1380, 1.1391
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean is where crowded EUR shorts are most exposed
M15 close back above the 1.1366 prior lows would mark the break below them as a false break
Close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1361 session low exposes the 1.1350 round number
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC is the next USD risk after London close
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 1.13679
Lower highs from 1.1390 and lower lows at 1.1366, pressing the session low into NY.
EURUSD gapped lower at the weekly open. London's 08:00 UTC spike was rejected at the 1.1390 Asian high, and the London drop since has built lower highs at 1.1380, with price back at the 1.1366 session low and RSI(14) near 35. The pair is heavy on $107 Brent and >70% October Fed hike odds, and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC is the immediate swing factor.
Support: 1.13655, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13803, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1366 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1350 round number
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC during NY hours
Reclaim of the 1.1391 Asian high fills the weekend gap and exposes the 1.1400 psych level
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 37 · price 1.13693
Lower highs capping above the session low, compressing near lows.
Monday opened with a gap under Friday's 1.1392 close. London broke the Asian low, rallied, then met rejection at the 1.1390 asian high before sliding to the 1.1366 session low. The 12:00 UTC lower high at 1.1380 has kept the pair pinned near lows at 1.1369, with oil above $100 and hawkish Fed pricing keeping EUR heavy and RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 1.1366, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 13:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1366 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.1390 asian high and gap fill back into view
1.1400 round number and option strike caps any squeeze beyond the asian high
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC is a second risk window during NY hours
EUR/USD opened the week gapped ~14 pips below Friday's close as Brent above $100 and hawkish Fed pricing lifted the dollar. London broke the Asian range low, bounced back to the 1.13905 Asian high and was rejected, then set the 1.13659 session low. Since then price is coiling between a 1.13693 higher low and a 1.13803 lower high near the 61.8% fib into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.13693, 1.13659
Resistance: 1.13803, 1.13905
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 13:30 UTC; hawkish or dovish tone on an October hike could break the coil either way
M15 close above the 1.13803 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.13905 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.13693 higher low exposes the 1.13659 session low; a break there extends the London downleg
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC is a second USD-side risk during NY hours
Lower highs from 1.1390 asian high, higher lows off 1.1366 session low; late-London compression.
EURUSD gapped about 14 pips lower at the weekly open on the oil/Iran headlines. London's gap-fill attempt was rejected at the 1.1390 asian high and dropped to a 1.1366 session low. Price is now compressing between a lower high at 1.1380 and a higher low at 1.1372, sitting on the 38.2% fib of that London drop, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.13721, 1.13659
Resistance: 1.13803, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high breaks the down trendline and brings the 1.1390 asian high and the Friday-close gap back into view
Loss of the 1.1372 higher low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.1366 session low; a break below there extends the London lower-low sequence
Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Lagarde (13:30 UTC) fall in the London-NY transition and are the likely catalysts for resolving the 1.1372-1.1380 compression
Lower highs since London open; small higher low at 1.1369.
Monday opened with a 14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close as Brent pushed above $100. London broke the Asian low, was rejected at the 1.1390 Asian high at 08:00 UTC, then printed a session low at 1.1366. The bounce from the 1.1369 higher low is sitting at the 38.2% fib of the London drop, just under EMA20 and the 1.1378 lower high.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1366
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1390, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 lower high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1390 Asian high back in play
Break of the 1.1369 higher low and the 1.1366 session low extends the London downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 1.1400 round number caps above
Lower highs from 1.1390; London low 1.1366 now retested from below 38.2%.
The weekend gap lower left Friday's 1.1392 close unfilled. London dipped under the Asian low, was rejected at the 1.1390 asian high and sold to a 1.1366 session low as $107 Brent and Fed hike repricing kept USD bid. Price is now bouncing into the 38.2% retrace of that London drop near 1.1375, just under ema20, with the lower-high sequence intact and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13784, 1.13905, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read into the London-NY transition
M15 close above the 1.1378 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.1390 asian high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1366 session low exposes the 1.1350 pivot
A move through 1.1392 fills the weekend gap and puts the 1.1400 option expiry level in play
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 1.13714
Lower highs and lower lows below the Asian high.
The week opened with a gap lower from Friday's 1.1392 close. London dipped under the Asian low, bounced into a rejection at the 1.1390 Asian high, then printed a descending chain of lower highs to a 1.1366 london low. A firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing and Brent above $107 frames the drift, with RSI(14) near 37 and no oversold extreme.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.13905, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1366 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1350 pivot
M15 close above the 1.1374 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline
Reclaiming the 1.1390 asian high invalidates the downtrend read and fills the weekend gap
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish-ECB squeeze would put the 1.1400 round number in play
Lower highs and lower lows since the London rejection at the asian high.
EUR opened with a 14-pip weekend gap lower on oil and Fed-hike pressure. London rejected the asian high at 1.1390, then printed a london low at 1.13659, the bottom of the london leg, with the 1.1378 lower high now capping under descending highs. Price is compressing around 1.1372 mid-London in a 5-pip ATR range, below both EMAs, with RSI neutral near 43.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13784, 1.13905
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 lower high (50% of the london leg) breaks the descending highs and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.13659 london low extends the sequence toward the 1.1350 pivot
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of NY open
Recovery back through the 1.1390 asian high would negate the London rejection
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 45 · price 1.13728
Weekend gap lower; Asian low broken, lower-high sequence from 1.1390.
EURUSD gapped about 14 pips below Friday's close, broke the Asian low at the London open and was rejected at the 1.1390 Asian high at 08:00 UTC. The London leg has since printed lower highs down to a 1.1366 session low, with Brent above $107 and firm US yields keeping EUR heavy. RSI(14) sits near 45 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13784, 1.13858, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1378 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.1386 Friday low and the 1.1391 Asian high would neutralise the gap-down
Loss of the 1.1366 session low extends lower lows toward the 1.1350 pivot
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Lagarde (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 1.13718
LH/LL chain from 1.1390 rejection; weekend gap unfilled.
The weekend gap down from Friday's 1.1392 close is still open. London broke the Asian low, then met rejection at the 1.1390 asian high / gap zone, and has since printed lower highs down to a 1.1366 session low as Brent above $107 and Fed-hike yields weigh on EUR. RSI(14) is near 44 with no extreme, and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1360, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1380 lower high (61.8% of the London leg) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1366 session low exposes 1.1360 psych, then the 1.1350 pivot
Reclaim of the 1.1391 asian high fills the gap; 1.1400 option exp sits just above
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekend gap unfilled; London broke the Asian low and printed a lower low.
Monday opened 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close. Both Asia and the 08:00 UTC London push stalled just shy of the gap fill, at the 1.1391 asian high and 1.1390, and London has since slipped to a new session low at 1.13687 below the Asian range. Lower highs define the London leg, RSI(14) sits near 34, and the digest points to Brent above $107 and Fed-hike yields as the pressure on EUR.
Support: 1.13687, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.13784, 1.1382, 1.13909
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.13784 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
A retrace of the London leg that stalls near the 61.8% fib at 1.1382 keeps the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.13687 session low extends the move toward the 1.1360 range floor
A reclaim of the 1.1391 asian high fills the weekend gap and invalidates the read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and ECB's Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Sideways-to-heavy below the weekend gap · RSI 43 · price 1.13751
Monday range 1.1371–1.1391, London spike failed below the Asian high.
EURUSD gapped about 14 pips lower on the open as hawkish Fed pricing and Brent above $107 lifted the dollar. The London open dipped to a 1.1371 session low, then spiked to 1.1390, where it was rejected just under the Asian high and the unfilled gap near 1.1392. Price has since slipped back to the range floor, with RSI(14) at 43 and trading below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 session low breaks the Monday range and exposes the 100wma zone near 1.1350
Recovery through the 1.1390 Asian high would fill the weekend gap and put the 1.1400 round number (option strike) in play
Price is back near the 78.6% level of the London spike fib; holding there keeps the range intact
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Sideways within Asian range, mild downside tilt · RSI 47 · price 1.13777
Range 1.1371-1.1390; Monday gap below Friday close unfilled.
EURUSD opened Monday with a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close and has held inside the Asian range. At London open price made a false break of the Asia low to the 1.1371 london low, then ran into rejection at the 1.1390 asia high, and it now sits near 1.1378, about 62% back into the London swing. RSI(14) is neutral at 47, and firm USD on Fed hike pricing and Brent above $107 has left the gap unfilled.
Support: 1.13708, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13903, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.1390 asia high fills the Monday gap and opens the 1.14 strike, with the friday high at 1.1410 beyond
A break of the 1.1371 london low, below the higher low at 1.1373, confirms a range break toward the 1.1350 100wma
09:46 UTC
Sideways after a weekend gap lower, soft below EMAs · RSI 46 · price 1.13772
1.1371–1.1391 range; London swept the low, rejected at the top.
Monday opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close as USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak, and the Asian high at 1.1391 stalled just short of filling the gap. London dipped under the Asian low to a 1.1371 london low, rallied back into the asian high and was rejected. Price now sits mid-range near 1.1377, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) around 46.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1391 asian high breaks the session range and fills the gap. The 1.1400 psych level and the 1.1410 friday high sit above.
Failure to hold the 1.1371 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number.
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (15:15 broker) could move USD and shift this range read.
A retrace back through the 61.8% of the london swing (about 1.1378) keeps the swing-high rejection in play.
09:31 UTC
Heavy below Friday close, capped inside Asian range · RSI 41 · price 1.13752
Asian range 1.1371–1.1391, London swept both ends.
Monday opened roughly 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close on a firmer USD and hawkish Fed repricing. London open briefly broke the Asian low to set the london low at 1.1371, then rallied into a rejection at the asian high near 1.1391. Price has since given back about 90% of that London swing and sits just above the london low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 london low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1350 round number in view
Reclaim of the 1.1391 asian high would fill the weekend gap and reopen the 1.1400 round number
Hold above the london low keeps the London swing inside the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could shift USD tone during the London-NY transition
09:16 UTC
Weak downtrend inside a Monday range · RSI 41 · price 1.13751
Weekend gap unfilled; 1.1371–1.1391 session range, lower low printed at London open.
EUR/USD gapped ~14 pips lower at the Asia open on weekend Iran/oil headlines and has twice failed at the 1.1391 asian high, just short of filling the gap to Friday's 1.1392 close. London dipped to a new session low at 1.1371, spiked back to 1.1390, met rejection there and has since retraced most of that London swing to ~1.1375. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number
M15 close above the 1.1391 asian high fills the weekend gap and exposes the 1.1400 round number
Price is near the 79% retrace of the London swing; holding above 1.1371 keeps the 1.1371–1.1391 range intact
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday range with a soft downside tilt · RSI 41 · price 1.13772
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391, London swept the low and rebounded, then was rejected at the high.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 1.1392 close. Asia stalled at the 1.1391 asian high, just short of a fill. The London open briefly broke the 1.1373 asian low, printing a 1.1371 session low. The rebound was rejected at 1.1390 again, and price sits at 1.1377 near the 61.8% of the London swing, below both EMAs, as a hawkish Fed and firmer oil keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.13731, 1.13708
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1371 session low turns the false break into a lower-low
Close above the 1.1391 asian high fills the weekend gap and opens the 1.1400 round number
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391 intact after London false break lower.
Asia nearly filled the weekend gap but capped at the 1.1391 asian high. The London open made a false break of the asian low to a 1.1371 london low, and the rebound was rejected back at the asian high. Price now sits mid-range near the 61.8% of that london swing fib, with RSI(14) ~42 as hawkish Fed and firmer oil keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.13731, 1.13708
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 asian high reopens the 1.1400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1371 london low confirms a lower-low below the asian low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391; London false break of the low, rejection at the high.
Monday gapped below Friday's 1.1392 close. Asia nearly filled the gap at the 1.1391 Asian high, then the London open broke the Asian low to a 1.1371 London low and snapped back. The rebound was rejected at the Asian high, so price now sits mid-range on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 46, while hawkish Fed pricing and firmer oil keep EUR heavy.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1371
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1371 London low and Asian low negates the false break and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1391 Asian high opens the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 Friday high
Loss of the 50% retrace of the London bounce near 1.1381 shifts focus back to the range floor
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp bounce at London open · RSI 51 · price 1.13854
Asian range 1.13731–1.13909; London false break below, back inside range.
London open broke the asian low at 1.13731 and set a session low at 1.13708, then a 10-pip reversal bar pulled price back inside the Asian range. Price has now retraced about 72% of the slide from the asian high and sits just under a line of descending highs, with USD support from Fed hike bets and oil still capping the pair below the 1.1400 round number.
Support: 1.13731, 1.13708
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.13909 asian high breaks the descending highs line and exposes the 1.1400 round number, then Friday's prior high at 1.14104
A move back below the 1.13731 asian low would turn the London bounce into a failed reclaim and put the 1.13708 session low back in focus
EZ HICP due Tue 07:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst; nothing is on the calendar for the next 8h
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asian session · RSI 33 · price 1.13765
Weekend gap unfilled; London dipped below Asian low, bounce capped at 38.2%.
EUR/USD gapped lower at the weekly open. The Asian high at 1.1391 was rejected just shy of the gap fill, and price has stepped lower beneath the Friday low at 1.1386 as hawkish Fed pricing and firm oil keep USD supported. London open briefly pierced the Asian low at 1.1373 to a session low at 1.1371, and the rebound is stalling at the 38.2% fib near the 1.1381 swing high, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1371, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1381, 1.1386, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1381 swing high and the 1.1386 Friday low would reopen the 1.1391 Asian high and the gap area
Failure to hold the 1.1371 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1350 psych level
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main swing factor for this read
Lower highs since Asian high; London open swept Asian low.
Asia nearly filled the weekend gap to the 1.1391 Asian high, then supply capped it and EUR slid into London on hawkish Fed and oil headlines. London open swept the Asian low at 1.1373 to a 1.1371 London low and price is back above it with RSI(14) near 34. The lower-high sequence from 1.1389 to 1.1381 is intact below the Friday low at 1.1386.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1371, 1.1356
Resistance: 1.1381, 1.1386, 1.1391
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1381 lower high and the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low move (1.1381) breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1371 London low exposes the 1.1356 100wma
Reclaim of the 1.1386 Friday low and 1.1391 Asian high would neutralise the gap-down read
Tue HICP and Fed speakers (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low at London open · RSI 31 · price 1.13731
Lower highs since 03:15 UTC; Asian range broken to the downside.
Monday gapped about 14 pips under Friday's 1.1392 close. Asia nearly filled it at the 1.13909 asian high before a lower-high sequence rolled price over, and the London open broke the 1.13731 asian low to a session low of 1.13708. RSI(14) near 31 is not yet stretched, with hawkish Fed remarks and renewed oil/Middle East tension keeping EUR heavy.
Support: 1.13708
Resistance: 1.13731, 1.13814, 1.13909
What it said to watch
Price holding under the broken 1.13731 asian low keeps the range break intact; a quick reclaim flags a false break
M15 close above the 1.13814 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.13708 session low extends the London session leg lower
Reclaim of the 1.13909 asian high would complete the gap fill and negate the break
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; oil and Iran headlines are the main intraday swing factor
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pressing the Asian low · RSI 31 · price 1.13746
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1391 Asian high, price at the Asian range floor.
Monday gapped about 14 pips lower. The Asia rebound nearly filled the gap but met rejection at the 1.1391 asian high, and a chain of lower highs has since driven price back to the asian low at 1.1373 into London open, with RSI(14) near 31. Oil-driven USD demand on the Iran headlines explains the fade, and supply is capping each bounce beneath the descending lower highs line.
Support: 1.13731, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.13814, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1373 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1370 round number
A recovery above the 1.1381 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 1.1391 asian high completes the gap fill and brings the 1.1400 option cap into view
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; oil and Iran/Hormuz headlines are the main swing factor
07:01 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.13809
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391, lower-high sequence into London open.
The weekend gap down from Friday's 1.1392 close was almost filled in Asia, but rejection at 1.1391 gave way to a lower-high sequence and a slide to a session low at 1.1375 ahead of London open, with oil-driven USD firmness weighing. Price sits mid-Asian range below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1373, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1373 asian low breaks the Asian range and leaves the 1.1350 3m low as the next reference
A close above the 1.1385 lower high breaks the trendline and reopens the 1.1391 gap fill area
Acceptance above the 1.1400 round number would neutralise the Asia fade
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; oil and Hormuz headlines are the main intraday risk
06:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.13777
Gap filled then rejected; lower-high chain pressing Asian range floor.
Asia filled the weekend gap to Friday's 1.1392 close, but the gap fill at 1.1391 was rejected. A lower highs chain has since pulled price back to 1.1375–1.1373, the session low and asian low, ahead of London open. The oil-driven USD bid after the Iran headlines keeps pressure on, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.13749, 1.13731, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1388, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1373 asian low breaks the Asian range and opens the path toward the 1.1350 3m low
Close back above the 1.1388 lower highs line negates the fade; the 1.1391 gap fill and 1.1400 round number sit above
London open in ~30 min is likely to test the session low and Asian range edges
Oil / Strait of Hormuz headlines could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 1.13783
Gap-down open, near gap fill rejected, Asian range bottom under test.
The weekend gap-down to 1.1378 nearly filled, but supply capped the Asian high at 1.1391, a pip shy of Friday's close. Lower highs since 03:15 UTC and a slip through the 1.1385 broken low have taken price back to the 1.1376 swing low into London open, with the USD firm on oil/Iran headlines and hawkish Fed pricing.
Support: 1.13765, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13845, 1.13909, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1376 swing low exposes the 1.1373 asian low and a break of the Asian range
M15 close back above the 1.1385 broken low and the lower-highs line negates the pullback read, putting the 1.1391 asian high and gap fill back in play
1.1400 round number and option expiry area caps the topside if the gap fills
No scheduled data in the next 8h, so oil and Hormuz headlines remain the intraday USD driver
06:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since 03:15 UTC · RSI 38 · price 1.13817
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391 intact; gap-fill attempt rejected, price at mid-range.
Monday's Asia session opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close. The rebound stalled at the 1.1391 asian high, just short of a full gap fill, and lower highs since have pulled price back to the 50% retrace of the Asian rally near 1.1382. Hawkish-Fed and oil-driven dollar demand keep EUR heavy into the London open, with the session low at 1.1379 the nearest test.
Support: 1.1379, 1.1373, 1.1356
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1379 session low and the 1.1373 asian low at London open extends the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1356 100wma the next reference
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1391 asian high completes the gap fill and brings 1.1400 psych (option expiry area) into view, then the 1.1410 friday high double top
Holding the asian rally fib 50% near 1.1382 keeps the Asian range read intact
Oil/Iran headlines have been driving dollar moves and could shift the read before any scheduled data
Inside Asian range; lower highs since 03:15 UTC, 1.1385 shelf broken.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip weekend gap down from Friday's 1.1392 close. Asia lifted price from the 1.1373 asian low to the 1.1391 asian high but stalled short of a full gap fill, while Iran-driven oil strength kept the dollar bid. The 1.1385 shelf gave way into late Asia, leaving price at 1.1382, the 50% level of the asian range fib, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1391, 1.1400
What it said to watch
London open in ~1h typically expands the ~18-pip Asian range; direction of that break sets the session read
M15 close back above the 1.1385 shelf returns price to the upper half of the asian range fib
Failure to hold the 1.1380 round number (61.8% of the Asian move) exposes the 1.1373 asian low
Asian high at 1.1391 caps the gap fill; 1.1400 psych and option area sits above
Oil / US–Iran headlines could materially shift this read; no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
05:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after Asia recovery · RSI 44 · price 1.13856
Asian range 1.1373–1.1391, tight 1.1384–1.1391 box below unfilled gap.
Monday Asia opened on a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close, bottomed at the 1.1373 asian low and recovered to the 1.1391 asian high without filling the gap, as USD held firm on hawkish Fed talk and oil headlines. Price has stalled in a 1.1384–1.1391 box for three hours, holding the 38.2% retrace of the Asian range with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR under 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1384, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
London open break of the 1.1373–1.1391 Asian range sets the session structure
M15 close above the 1.1391 asian high fills the gap and brings the 1.1400 option exp into play, with the friday high at 1.1410 capping twice on Friday
Loss of the 1.1384 range low exposes the 1.1373 asian low and the lower end of the Asian range fib
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; Tue HICP and Fed speakers are the next catalysts
05:31 UTC
Flat, Asia recovery stalling · RSI 46 · price 1.13861
Weekend gap lower nearly filled; Asian range 1.1373–1.1391, compressing near the top.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip gap lower. Buyers stepped in at the 1.1373 asia low, and the Asia session rally stalled at the 1.1391 asia high, a fraction short of Friday's close. Price is now compressing between the 1.1385 asia pivot and that high into London open, just below flat EMAs, with firm USD tone on hawkish Fed talk and Middle East headlines keeping the 1.1400 round number out of reach.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 asia high completes the gap fill and brings the 1.1400 round number (large option expiry) into view
Friday high at 1.1410 was rejected twice on Friday and caps any extension above 1.1400
Break below the 1.1385 asia pivot (38.2% of the asia rally fib) exposes the 1.1373 asia low
London open in under 2h typically expands the Asian range; ATR of ~2.6 pips reflects thin Asia conditions
Oil/Iran headlines are the main unscheduled risk; no scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h
05:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below gap fill · RSI 51 · price 1.1386
Late Asian range 1.1373–1.1391, higher lows above rising trendline.
Monday opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close as hawkish Fed commentary and Iran headlines supported USD. Asia put in a low at 1.1373, just above the Friday low, then rebuilt most of the gap, with the Asian high at 1.1391 capping. Price is now holding the 1.1385 shelf above the rising Asian trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ranges compressing ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1385, 1.1373, 1.1371
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 Asian high completes the Friday gap fill and brings the 1.1400 round number (option expiry) into view
Acceptance above 1.1400 exposes the 1.1410 Friday high, where two Friday tops formed
Break of the 1.1385 shelf and the Asian trendline returns focus to the 1.1373 Asian low and the 1.1371 Friday low
London open in about 2h typically expands the Asian range; Tuesday's HICP and Fed speakers sit beyond this window
Higher lows off Asian low, stalling just under the gap fill.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close as Iran/oil headlines kept the dollar bid. The Asian low at 1.1373 held and price has grinded back up but is compressing just under the gap fill, hugging EMA20/50 with ATR(14) at only 2.7 pips. Above that sit the 1.1400 round number and Friday's double top at 1.1410.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13916, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1392 gap fill opens the path to the 1.1400 round number
Double top at 1.1410 remains the ceiling; rejection there keeps Friday's range intact
Break of the 1.1385 swing low ends the higher-low sequence off the Asian low and exposes 1.1373
London open in ~2h typically expands the tight Asian range; Iran/Hormuz headlines could drive it
04:46 UTC
Recovering within Asian range after weekend gap down · RSI 58 · price 1.13881
Rising lows from asian low, pressing asian high just under gap fill.
EURUSD gapped about 14 pips lower at the weekly open as the USD stayed firm on hawkish Fed rhetoric and Iran tension. Late in the Asia session it has built rising lows from the 1.1373 asian low to the 1.1385 swing low. Price is now pressing the 1.1391 asian high, just shy of Friday's close, with RSI(14) near 58 and price sitting marginally above EMA20/EMA50 on a 2.8-pip ATR.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 asian high fills the weekend gap and opens the path to the 1.1400 round number
1.1410 friday high capped two tests on Friday and marks the next barrier above 1.1400
Break of the 1.1385 swing low ends the rising lows sequence and exposes the 1.1373 asian low
London open in roughly 2.5h is likely to expand the tight Asian range
04:31 UTC
Intraday recovery from gap, stalling below gap fill · RSI 58 · price 1.13883
Higher lows through Asia off 1.1373, compressing under 1.1391.
Monday opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close. Asia recovered off the 1.1373 Asia low along a rising trendline of higher lows but stalled just short of a full gap fill at the 1.1391 Asia high. Late Asia is now compressing between 1.1385 and 1.1391, with hawkish-Fed and Iran/oil headlines keeping the round number 1.1400 out of reach so far.
Support: 1.1385, 1.1378, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1391 asia high fills the weekend gap and brings the round number 1.1400 (option strike) and the 1.1410 friday high into view
Loss of the 1.1385 higher low and the rising trendline shifts focus back to the 1.1378 swing low and the 1.1373 asia low
London open in ~3h typically expands a ~3-pip ATR Asian range; oil and Hormuz headlines are the live intraday driver ahead of Tuesday's HICP
04:16 UTC
Asian recovery after gap down, stalling below the gap fill · RSI 56 · price 1.13857
Higher lows from the 1.1373 Asian low, capped at the 1.1391 session high.
Monday opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close on USD strength and oil tensions. The Asian low at 1.1373 held and the recovery was rejected at the 1.1391 session high, just short of a full gap fill. Late in the Asia session, price is holding near the 1.1385 swing low, fractionally under a flattening EMA20, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13731, 1.13682
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1391 session high around the London open completes the gap fill and brings the 1.1400 round number into play, with the Friday high at 1.1410 above
Failure to hold the 1.1385 swing low breaks the rising line from the Asian low and exposes 1.1373
Loss of the 1.1373 Asian low reopens the Friday low at 1.1368
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Tuesday's HICP and Fed speakers are the next event risk
04:01 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below gap fill · RSI 61 · price 1.13865
Higher lows off the Asia low, capped under 1.1391; shallow pullback into trendline.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close on hawkish Fed talk and the oil bid. Demand stepped in at the 1.1373 asia low, and a higher-low sequence has nearly filled the gap, stalling at the 1.1391 asia high. Price is now back on trendline support near 1.1385, at the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13781, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13909, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1385 trendline and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1378 swing low
Loss of the 1.1373 asia low reopens the Monday gap-down leg
Close above the 1.1391 asia high fills the gap; the 1.1400 round number and 1.1410 friday high sit above
London open (~07:00 UTC) typically expands the thin Asian range
Tue Fed speakers (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and EZ HICP could shift this read
03:46 UTC
Short-term uptrend off Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 1.13883
Higher-low chain from 1.1373, stalling just under the 1.1392 gap fill.
Monday opened roughly 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close on weekend hawkish-Fed and Iran headlines, and the Asian low printed at 1.1373. Since then a steady higher-low chain has carried price back to 1.1391. The gap fill is nearly complete, with bars compressing into higher lows around 1.1387 in late Asia. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR is only about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1387, 1.1378, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1392 gap fill opens the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 Friday high, where Friday's double top formed
Break below the 1.1387 higher lows ends the Asian-leg sequence. That exposes the 1.1378 swing low, near the 50% of the Asian leg fib, then the 1.1373 Asian low
London open typically expands the ~3-pip ATR. Iran/Hormuz or oil headlines could shift the read, with no scheduled data in the next 8h
03:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows through Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.13908
Weekend gap lower being filled; HH/HL chain off Asian low into Friday close.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip gap lower on weekend hawkish-Fed and Hormuz headlines. Asia has since printed higher lows off the 1.1373 Asian low along a rising trendline and is pressing the 1.1392 Friday close, nearly filling the gap, with RSI(14) near 60. Overhead sits the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 Friday high, which capped price twice on Friday.
Support: 1.13872, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13916, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1392 Friday close completes the gap fill and brings the 1.1400 round number into play
1.1410 Friday high rejected twice on Friday; a third test there is the upside marker
Break below the 1.1387 swing low and rising trendline returns focus to the 1.1373 Asian low
London open typically expands the ~18-pip Asian range; no scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h
Higher lows off the Asian low, pressing the weekend gap fill.
Monday's Asia session opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close as weekend Fed hawkishness and Iran headlines firmed the USD, then based at the 1.1373 Asian low and has printed higher lows back into the gap fill near 1.1390. Above the gap fill sit the 1.1400 round number and the Friday high at 1.1410, which was tested twice on Friday. ATR(14) is only ~3.4 pips in thin Asian trade, with price hugging EMA50.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1392 gap fill exposes the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 Friday high
Break below the 1.1383 higher low and the rising trendline turns the Asian recovery into a range
Loss of the 1.1373 Asian low reopens the gap-down move
London open in ~4h typically expands the Asian range
Higher-low chain in Asia, stalling under gap fill.
Monday opened 14 pips lower on weekend hawkish Fed rhetoric and Iran tensions. The Asian rally since has printed steady higher lows off the 1.1373 Asian low, and price now sits flat on EMA50 just under the 1.1392 gap fill, with Friday's twin rejection at the 1.1410 friday high the next cap above the 1.1400 round number.
Support: 1.1384, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1392 completes the gap fill and exposes the 1.1400 round number
A break of the 1.1384 higher low snaps the Asian higher-low trendline; 1.1373 asian low is next
London open in ~4h is the first test of the Asian range; oil/Iran headlines remain the swing factor
02:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 70 · price 1.13884
Weekend gap down, rebounding into Friday close gap fill.
Asia session opened Monday with a ~14-pip gap down from Friday's 1.1392 close to a 1.1373 Asian low on USD/oil-driven pressure. Price has since printed higher lows and stalled just under the fri close gap fill, testing EMA50 with RSI(14) near 70. The 1.1400 psych and Friday's 1.1410 fri high, a twice-rejected session high, sit above.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1373
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1392 fri close fills the gap and exposes 1.1400 psych
Break of the 1.1378 swing low undercuts the higher lows chain and puts the 1.1373 asian low back in play
Friday's double rejection at 1.1410 fri high caps the range above 1.1400
Oil/Iran headlines during London open could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, momentum moderate · RSI 58 · price 1.13883
Higher-low chain in Asia, pressing weekend gap fill.
Monday opened with a 14-pip gap below the 1.1392 Fri close, driven by weekend hawkish Fed rhetoric and Iran tensions. Asia has since put in higher lows along a rising trendline off the 1.1373 asian low and is pressing the gap fill. RSI(14) sits near 58, price is just above the EMA50, and the Asian range spans only ~16 pips.
Support: 1.13846, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13916, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1392 (Fri close) fills the gap and exposes the 1.1400 round number, then the 1.1410 Fri high
Break of the 1.1385 higher low and rising trendline ends the Asia HL chain; 1.1373 asian low is next
London open near 07:00 UTC typically resets the Asian range; oil and Iran headlines remain the swing factor
02:16 UTC
Recovering intraday after weekend gap down · RSI 63 · price 1.13888
Asia higher lows, price testing Friday close gap fill.
Monday opened about 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close on weekend hawkish Fed talk and Middle East tension. The Asia low at 1.1373 held and higher lows have lifted price to 1.1389, just under the gap fill and near the 38.2–50% retrace of the Friday high-Monday low leg, with RSI(14) near 63 and price sitting on EMA50. Friday high at 1.1410 capped twice and the 1.1400 round number sits in between.
Support: 1.1383, 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1392 gap fill brings the 1.1400 round number and the 1.1410 friday high back into play
Break of the 1.1383 swing low ends the Asia higher-low sequence; below the 1.1373 asia low, the 1.1368 friday low is next
No scheduled EUR or USD data in the next 8h; London open is the next test of the Asian range
Oil and Iran headlines could move USD outside the calendar
HH/HL chain off 1.1373 session low; weekend gap below 1.1392 unfilled.
Monday's Asia session opened on a 14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close, after the double top at the 1.1410 friday high, as weekend Fed rhetoric and Iran headlines kept USD firm. Buyers stepped in at the 1.1373 session low, and higher lows since then have carried price into the 1.1387 session high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop. The gap fill sits 4 pips above, with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.13781, 1.13731, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13916, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1387 session high opens the gap fill at 1.1392 and the 1.1400 pivot
Loss of the 1.1378 higher low and the 1.1373 session low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1368 friday low
London open (07:00 UTC) likely expands the thin Asian range
No scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h; oil/Iran headlines are the main swing risk
01:46 UTC
Gap lower at open, recovering on higher lows · RSI 53 · price 1.13859
Higher lows off the Asian low, testing the session high.
Monday opened 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close as weekend hawkish Fed rhetoric and Middle East tensions lifted the USD. The 1.1373 Asian low held, and a chain of higher lows along the rising trendline has carried price back to 1.1386, pressing the session high with more than half the gap filled. ATR near 4 pips reflects thin Asia session flow.
Support: 1.13781, 1.13731
Resistance: 1.13872, 1.13916, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1387 session high opens a full gap fill to the 1.1392 Friday close, with 1.1400 psych (option-expiry level) above that
Break of the 1.1378 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.1373 Asian low
London open in ~5.5h typically expands the Asian range; no scheduled EUR/USD data in the next 8h
Asian range 1.1373–1.1387 inside Friday's range, HL chain.
Monday opened roughly 14 pips below Friday's 1.1392 close as weekend hawkish Fed rhetoric and Middle East tensions supported USD. The session low at 1.1373 held above the Friday low at 1.1368, and price has printed higher lows since, with the session high at 1.1387 capping just short of the gap fill.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1392, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the session high at 1.1387 puts the gap fill at 1.1392 in play, with the 1.1400 option exp level above
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 1.1373 session low exposes the Friday low at 1.1368
London open in ~5h is likely to set direction out of the thin Asian range
Fed speakers Tue (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and HICP Tue 07:00 UTC could shift the read
01:16 UTC
Recovering after weekend gap down · RSI 53 · price 1.13854
Higher lows off Asia low, still below Friday close.
Week opened with a ~14-pip gap down from Friday's 1.1392 close as weekend hawkish Fed rhetoric and Middle East tension lifted USD. The Asia session held its asia low at 1.1373 and price is building higher lows back toward the gap fill, with Friday's twin high at 1.1410 above.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Gap fill at 1.1392 opens the 1.1400 round number, then the friday high at 1.1410
Loss of the asia low at 1.1373 and the friday low at 1.1368 resumes the gap-down move
Break of the asia higher lows trendline turns the Asian range back to flat
London open liquidity typically tests the thin Asian range; Tue HICP and Fed speakers are the next scheduled risk
01:01 UTC
Sideways after weekend gap lower · RSI 48 · price 1.13829
Tight Asian range 1.1373–1.1385 below unfilled gap.
EURUSD opened the week about 14 pips lower, below Friday's 1.1392 close, as Iran shipping warnings kept energy risk alive. Early Asia has held a 12-pip range between the asian low at 1.1373 and the asian high at 1.1385, capped near the 61.8% retrace of Friday's rally. Friday's double top at the 1.1410 friday high remains the upper reference.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1392, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1385 asian high puts the 1.1392 gap fill in play
Loss of the 1.1373 asian low exposes the 1.1368 friday low, the base of Friday's rally
Reclaim of 1.1410 friday high would negate Friday's double top
Oil and Hormuz headlines can move this thin Asia session quickly
00:46 UTC
Sideways after weekend gap lower · RSI 42 · price 1.13797
Tight Asia range 1.1373–1.1385 below unfilled gap.
Early Asia session: EURUSD gapped ~14 pips lower from Friday's 1.1392 close on thin weekend flow, with Iran/Hormuz headlines keeping energy risk alive. It has since held a 12-pip range between the 1.1373 session low and the 1.1385 session high, about 72% back into the friday rally fib (1.1368 to the 1.1410 friday high), with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1392, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1385 session high puts the 1.1392 gap fill in play
Failure to hold the 1.1373 session low exposes the 1.1368 friday low, where the friday rally fib is fully retraced
London open is likely to break the compressed Asia range; ATR near 4 pips reflects thin conditions
Tue 07:00 UTC HICP and Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS are the next scheduled risk
Early Asian range 1.1373–1.1385 below unfilled gap.
Monday opened with a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close, after the Friday rally stalled at a 1.1410 double top and EUR stayed heavy near 3-month lows on hawkish-Fed and oil pressure. Early Asia is holding a 12-pip range between the asian low at 1.1373 and the asian high at 1.1385, which sits at the 61.8% of the Friday rally fib. Price is between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels, and the gap fill remains open overhead.
Support: 1.13731, 1.13679
Resistance: 1.13854, 1.13916, 1.14104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1385 asian high opens the gap fill at 1.1392
Failure to hold the 1.1373 asian low exposes the 1.1368 friday low and a full retrace of the Friday rally fib
The 1.1410 double top caps the upside unless it is reclaimed
London open liquidity is likely to set the direction of the Asian range break
00:16 UTC
Gapped lower at week open, lower highs in early Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.13772
Weekend gap below Friday close, holding session low near 78.6% retrace.
Week opened with a ~14-pip gap below Friday's 1.1392 close. The Asia session is capped at the 1.1385 session high with lower highs. Price is holding the 1.1373 session low at the 78.6% retrace of Friday's rally, with RSI(14) near 31 in thin early liquidity.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1392, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1385 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence
A move back to the 1.1392 friday close fills the weekend gap and neutralises the gap read
Failure to hold the 1.1368 friday low puts price below Friday's entire Asian range
The 1.1410 friday high (double-tested) caps the upside if the gap fills
Euro-area HICP on Tue could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since weekly open · RSI 30 · price 1.13752
Gap-down open, Asia printing lower highs and lower lows below Friday close.
The weekly open gapped about 14 pips below the 1.1392 friday close. Early Asia session has stepped lower from a 1.1385 session high to a 1.1373 session low, RSI(14) near 30. Friday's London-NY rally stalled at a 1.1410 double top and faded into the close, with the gap still unfilled as crowded EUR shorts head into euro-area inflation week.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1392, 1.1410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1385 session high breaks the session lower highs sequence
A move back to 1.1392 fills the gap at the friday close, near the 50% friday high retracement
Failure to hold the 1.1368 friday low extends the lower-low chain
Thin Asia liquidity until London open; Tue 07:00 UTC HICP is the next scheduled catalyst