Lower highs since Wednesday; 1.1353–1.1410 range after the midweek drop.
Wednesday's London-NY slide from 1.1448 set the tone, and every rebound since has printed a lower high: the friday high at 1.1410, Monday's week high at 1.1391, then 1.1388 in NY, all along the lower-highs line. The first hour of NY on Monday pushed briefly through the thursday low at 1.1359 to a monday low of 1.1353 before snapping back, a false break so far, as Brent above $100 and firmer US yields keep EUR heavy. Price is pinned just under EMA(20) near 1.1374 and the weekly open at 1.1378, with RSI(14) flat around 45 and hourly ranges compressing into Asia.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1353 monday low turns the false break into a confirmed lower-low
Close above the 1.1391 week high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1410 friday high into play
Acceptance back above the weekly open at 1.1378 and EMA(20) would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
22:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a 1.1353-1.1410 range · RSI 46 · price 1.13715
Range since Thursday, lower high Monday.
Wednesday's London-NY sell-off from 1.1449 set the tone, and price has since held a 1.1353-1.1410 range. Friday high at 1.1410 capped twice, and Monday opened with a gap down to the 1.1378 weekly open, then printed a lower high at 1.1391 as oil-driven yield gains lifted USD. The first-hour-of-NY dip to a 1.1353 week low briefly broke the thu low at 1.1359 before recovering on Iran sanctions-relief headlines, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1373 with RSI(14) flat around 46.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1353 week low turns the false break into a confirmed lower low
Recovery through the 1.1378 weekly open and the 1.1391 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence
Friday high at 1.1410 marks the range top, near the 60% retrace of the Wednesday sell-off
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (Tue 14:00 UTC) plus Fedspeak add NY-session risk
Lower highs capping a 1.1353–1.1410 range, trading below EMA20.
EUR/USD gapped lower into a 1.1378 weekly open after the US rejected Tehran's ceasefire plan, lifting Brent and Treasury yields. The first hour of NY pushed through the 1.1359 thursday low to a 1.1353 monday low before a bounce stalled near the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Monday drop, under the lower-highs line from the 1.1410 friday high. Price now sits just below EMA(20) near 1.1374 with RSI(14) around 42. Every rally since Wednesday has topped out lower: 1.1450, then 1.1410, then 1.1391.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.1391 monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% fib cap
Failure to hold the 1.1353 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Holding back above the 1.1378 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise Monday's gap
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC Tuesday feed into Fed-hike pricing
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 44 · price 1.13763
Lower highs inside a 1.1353–1.1410 range after Wednesday's slide.
The dominant move came across Wednesday's London and NY sessions, a slide from 1.1450 to 1.1370. Price has held a 1.1353–1.1410 range since then, and Friday's rally stalled at the 1.1410 friday high, leaving a sequence of lower highs. In Monday's NY session price dipped below the 1.1359 thursday low to a 1.1353 week low, then rebounded toward 1.1388 as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the oil-and-yields dollar bid. That rebound left the dip below the Thursday low as a false break. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) and the 1.1378 weekly open, below the monday high at 1.1391 and the 38.2% retracement of the decline.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1391 monday high and the 38.2% retracement breaks the lower-highs line and opens 1.1410.
Failure to hold 1.1353 week low confirms a fresh lower-low below the thursday low.
Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read.
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the Fedspeak cluster on Tuesday could also shift this read.
Holding back below the 1.1378 weekly open keeps the range-floor test in play.
Lower highs from 1.1455 into a 1.1353-1.1360 floor.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs all week from Tuesday's 1.1455 top. Friday's rebound stalled near the 50% retrace of the week decline, and Monday gapped lower under Friday's 1.1392 close. Brent above $100 and Fed-hike repricing drove Monday's slide during the London-NY transition to a week low at 1.1353, a brief false break of Thursday's low at 1.1359 that was reclaimed into NY hours. The bounce faded beneath the Monday high near 1.1390, the 38.2% retrace and the lower-highs trendline, leaving price below the weekly open and EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 1.1378, where EMA(20) also sits, would ease pressure; the Monday high at 1.1391 is the next cap
Close above the Friday high at 1.1410 breaks the lower-highs sequence and invalidates the week's downtrend read
Sustained trade below the week low at 1.1353, just under the 1.1356 100wma, confirms a lower-low beyond the Thursday low zone
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC), then JOLTS and Williams/Waller Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Monday probed below Thursday's low and bounced.
EUR/USD has printed lower lows since Wednesday's London-to-NY selloff from Tuesday's 1.1455 high. Friday's rebound stalled twice at the 1.1410 friday high, and Monday gapped lower at a 1.1378 weekly open that now caps alongside EMA(20) near 1.1375. Oil above $100 after the US rejected Iran's ceasefire plan, plus firm Fed-hike pricing, took the first hour of NY to a 1.1353 monday low, briefly through the 1.1359 thu low before a bounce back above it; RSI(14) near 36 sits under 50 but short of oversold, with price below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1350 psych level extends the lower-low sequence beyond the Monday low
Recovery above the weekly open and EMA(20) at 1.1375-1.1378 would neutralise Monday's NY-session break
Close above the 1.1391 Monday high breaks the lower highs line and clears the 38.2% level of the Tue-Mon fib
Tue EZ HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed's Cook today at 17:15 UTC, then JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC Tuesday, are further event risk
Lower highs from 1.1455; probe below Thursday low.
Lower highs have stacked up since Tuesday's 1.1455 peak. Friday's rally stalled twice at the 1.1410 friday high, and Monday's week high at 1.1391 capped near the 38.2% retracement of the decline, while Brent above $100 and firmer Fed-hike pricing weighed on EUR after a gap-down open. The NY session pushed through the 1.1359 thursday low to a 1.1353 session low just above the 1.1350 round number, but H1 closes are so far holding back above the thursday low. EMA(20) has rolled into the 1.1377 weekly open overhead, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1350 round number would confirm acceptance under the thursday low and extend the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1377 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the lower-highs read, putting the 1.1391 week high and 38.2% retracement back in play
A move through the 1.1410 friday high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Tue HICP 07:00 UTC, Lagarde 11:00 and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 34 · price 1.1363
Lower highs from friday high; Thu-Fri range base at 1.1359 broken.
The dominant leg came Wednesday, when London and NY sessions drove EURUSD from 1.1450 to 1.1370 despite the PMI beat, as the hawkish Fed, high UST yields and $100+ Brent kept the dollar bid. Friday's rebound stalled at the friday high of 1.1410, near the 50% retracement of the Tue-Mon decline fib. Monday gapped lower at the 1.1378 weekly open, capped at the 1.1391 monday high and slid into the London-NY transition to a fresh week low at 1.1357, extending the lower highs sequence. Price sits below EMA(20), which is converging with the weekly open, and RSI(14) is in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.1357, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Tue HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
H1 close back above the 1.1378 weekly open / EMA(20) confluence would neutralise the range break
Reclaim of the 1.1391 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence
Sustained trade below 1.1350 pivot / 100-week MA extends the week low structure
Fed's Cook today 17:15 UTC and Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC are USD-side risk
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low in early NY · RSI 34 · price 1.13629
Lower highs from 1.1455; marginal lower low below Thursday's 1.1359.
Lower highs have held since Tuesday's 1.1455 peak. Friday's NY rebound stalled at the 1.1410 friday high, just short of the 61.8% fib, and the week opened on a gap lower as hawkish Fed repricing and Brent above $100 kept USD firm. London capped Monday at the 1.1391 monday high, then the first hour of NY pushed through Thursday's 1.1359 low to a new week low at 1.1357, leaving price below the ema20 near 1.1377 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.13566, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1377, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1357 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 round number, near the 100wma pivot
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1391 monday high would break the lower-highs trendline
Close back above the 1.1410 friday high and the 61.8% fib invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today, then Tuesday's HICP (07:00 UTC), Lagarde (11:00 UTC) and JOLTS (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 43 · price 1.13743
1.1359–1.1410 range after Wednesday's selloff; lower highs since Friday.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1359–1.1410 range since Wednesday's London-into-NY selloff, the leg that followed the Fed's hawkish repricing and Brent's run above $100. Friday's London rally was rejected at the 1.1410 friday high, the 50% retrace of the week's decline. A lower-highs line then capped Monday's bounce at the 1.1391 monday high, and price has since slipped back below the 1.1378 weekly open and EMA(20). RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 8.6 pips point to a compressed session range ahead of Lagarde, with the 1.1366 monday low and the 1.1359 swing low marking the range floor.
Support: 1.1366, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags 1.1400 as the pivot for any short-covering
H1 close below the 1.1359 swing low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
Failure to hold the 1.1366 monday low puts the 1.1359 swing low back under test
Reclaim of the 1.1378 weekly open and EMA(20) turns focus back to the 1.1391 monday high and the lower-highs line
Close above the 1.1410 friday high (50% retrace) invalidates the lower-highs read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, then Tuesday's HICP and JOLTS, are the next scheduled risk
12:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a range, lower high forming · RSI 40 · price 1.13722
1.1359–1.1410 range after Tue–Wed selloff; Monday gap lower, trading below weekly open.
The dominant move came in Wednesday's London and NY sessions. The selloff ran from 1.1466 to the 1.1359 range floor despite firm Eurozone PMIs, as the hawkish Fed, record-high UST yields and $100+ Brent kept USD in demand. Friday's London rally stalled twice at the 1.1410 range top, just shy of the selloff's 50% retracement. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close, and the Asia-session high at 1.1391 has set a lower high. Price now sits below the weekly open at 1.1378 and below EMA(20) near 1.1382, with RSI(14) around 40 and London printing a Monday low at 1.1366.
Support: 1.13659, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.1359 range floor would resume Wednesday's downtrend structure
Recovery above the weekly open and a close through the 1.1391 Monday high would break the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.1366 Monday low puts the range floor back in focus ahead of Tuesday's HICP and JOLTS
Lower high at 1.1391 under Friday's 1.1410 top; Monday range 1.1371-1.1391.
The Tuesday-to-Thursday slide from 1.1466 found a floor at the 1.1359 week low during Thursday's NY session. Friday's London bounce stalled twice at the 1.1410 friday high, near the 50% retracement of that leg. EUR then gapped lower at Monday's open as Brent above $107 and firm Fed-hike pricing weighed, and London has been capped twice at the 1.1391 monday high, leaving price back below EMA(20) and the weekly open at 1.1378.
Support: 1.13708, 1.13589, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1371 monday low exposes the 1.1359 week low; a break there opens the 1.1350 round number, which is also the 100wma area
Reclaiming the weekly open and closing above the 1.1391 monday high breaks the lower-high line, putting the 1.1410 friday high back in view
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and ECB's Lagarde (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read during the NY session
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 43 · price 1.13751
1.1359–1.1410 range capped by lower highs after Wednesday's sell-off.
EUR/USD dropped about 95 pips from Tuesday evening's 1.1455 swing high to the 1.1359 week low in Thursday's NY session. Most of the move came on Wednesday, as hawkish Fedspeak and Brent above $107 lifted the dollar. Price has since ranged between 1.1359 and 1.1410, and Friday's London rally stalled at the friday high between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that drop. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close, and the latest hourly bar was rejected at the 1.1391 monday high. That leaves price under the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.1384, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and a sequence of lower highs capping the range.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1371 monday low exposes the 1.1359 week low; losing that opens the 1.1350 psych area (100wma)
Close above the 1.1410 friday high breaks the lower highs sequence and the 61.8% fib cap
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Tuesday's HICP at 07:00 UTC follows
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 44 · price 1.13852
Lower highs from 1.1470; range 1.1359–1.1410 since Thursday.
EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since Tuesday's 1.1470 high. Most of the drop came in Wednesday's London and NY sessions despite the PMI beat, and hawkish Fed pricing then pushed the pair to the 1.1359 week low on Thursday. Friday's London-led bounce stalled at the 1.1410 friday high, near the 38.2% retrace of the weekly decline fib. Monday's weekend gap was nearly closed at the 1.1391 gap close before a London-open dip found the 1.1371 monday low. Price now sits just under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44, and lower highs are capping the range.
Support: 1.1371, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1391 gap close and the lower highs line reopens the 1.1410 friday high
Failure to hold the 1.1371 monday low exposes the 1.1359 week low; a break there extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today could extend USD strength
Tuesday's HICP (07:00 UTC) and JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range 1.1359–1.1410 after Tue–Wed impulsive decline; lower highs since Friday.
The week's dominant move came Tuesday into Wednesday's NY session, a slide from the 1.1471 week high to 1.1370 as hawkish Fed pricing and $100+ oil lifted USD. Since Thursday, price has held a 1.1359–1.1410 range. Friday's London rally stalled twice at the 1.1410 range top, just under the 50% retracement, forming a double top. Monday's gap lower was only partly retraced: the Asian bounce stalled beneath the 1.1391 friday close, and price now sits below both EMAs at the monday low, testing the higher-lows line from Thursday's range low, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1391, 1.1410, 1.1471
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1373 monday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1359 range low
Acceptance below 1.1359 would be a range break and resume the Tue–Wed downtrend
Reclaiming the 1.1391 friday close and the lower-highs line re-centres the range; above 1.1410 range top, the 1.1471 week high comes back into view
EZ HICP Tue 07:00 UTC, then ADP/PCE Wed from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1470; 1.1359–1.1410 range since Thursday.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1470 London-session peak. The Tue-Thu decline bottomed at the 1.1359 week low in Thursday's NY session as hawkish Fed rhetoric and firmer oil kept the USD bid. Friday's London-driven rebound stalled at the 1.1410 friday high, inside the 38.2–50% retracement, and Monday's Asia-session gap fill attempt was rejected just under 1.1391, leaving price below ema20 (1.1386) with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1391 gap fill and ema20 would neutralise the Asia rejection and bring the 1.1400 option area and 1.1410 friday high back into view
Break of the lower highs trendline near 1.1400 would challenge the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1373 monday low and 1.1368 higher low exposes the 1.1359 week low, with 1.1350 support just beneath
EZ HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) plus US JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tuesday could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled, flat range · RSI 44 · price 1.13862
1.1359–1.1410 range after Tue–Thu selloff; EMAs flat and converged.
EUR/USD shed about 110 pips from Tuesday's 1.1471 to Thursday's 1.1359 week low as hawkish Fed and oil-driven dollar demand dominated, with the steepest leg in Wednesday's NY session. A double bottom at the week low on Thursday led to a London-driven bounce on Friday that stalled twice at the friday high of 1.1410, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline. Monday's Asia session gapped below the friday close and has partly filled it, and price is now pinned just under the ema20 near 1.1387 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1387, 1.1392, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1410 friday high breaks the range top and the 38.2% level of the Tue–Thu decline
Failure to hold the 1.1359 week low confirms a lower-low and resumes the decline
Full gap fill to the 1.1392 friday close, or a rejection at the ema20 near 1.1387, sets Monday's tone
A break below the 1.1373 monday low breaks the higher lows line from Thursday
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Tuesday's Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1478; 1.1359–1.1410 range since Thursday.
The dominant move of the window was the Tuesday–Wednesday slide from 1.1478 to the 1.1359 week low, which extended in Wednesday's NY session as the hawkish Fed and firm US yields kept the dollar bid. Friday's London-led bounce twice stalled at the 1.1410 friday high, just past the 38.2% fib retracement of the decline and below the lower highs line. Monday opened with a gap down to 1.1378 after the weekend's Iran/oil headlines. The partial recovery to 1.1391 has not closed the gap fill at 1.1392, and price is sitting just under the flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.1388, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1359, 1.1356
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1392 gap fill and the 1.1400 round number would put the 1.1410 friday high and the lower highs line back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1373 gap low exposes the 1.1359 week low and the 100wma near 1.1356
A break below the 1.1359 week low would extend the lower-low sequence
Euro-area HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Fed speakers Musalem/Goolsbee/Williams on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Oil/Hormuz headlines have been driving USD alongside yields
Lower highs Tue–Thu, then higher lows off a 1.1359 double bottom; rebound capped at 1.1410.
The Tue–Thu slide from 1.1478 based twice at 1.1359 (last wk low) during Thursday's London and NY sessions. Friday's London-led rebound, helped by USD easing as oil dropped, stalled at the 38.2% fib with two rejections at 1.1410 (fri high). Monday's Asia session gapped below the fri close at 1.1392 on hawkish Fed and Iran headlines and dipped to 1.1373, just under the weekly open at 1.1378, before recovering onto the ema20 near 1.1388, with RSI(14) near 46 and higher lows since Thursday keeping the double bottom intact beneath the 1.1400 round number.
Support: 1.1388, 1.1378, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1400, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1410 fri high clears the 38.2% fib cap of the Tue–Thu decline
Failure to reclaim the fri close at 1.1392 and the 1.1400 round number leaves the Monday gap unfilled
Sustained trade below the weekly open at 1.1378 exposes last wk low 1.1359
Break of the higher-lows trendline from Thursday's 1.1359 low undercuts the double bottom read
Eurozone HICP (Tue 07:00 UTC) and Fed speakers Tue could shift this read; German CPI, ADP and PCE on Wednesday carry larger risk
Range 1.1359–1.1410 after Tue–Thu lower highs; higher low Monday.
The Tuesday–Wednesday slide from 1.1478 ran through London and NY on Fed hike repricing and the oil shock, overriding Wednesday's euro PMI beats, before a double bottom formed at the 1.1359 swing low during Thursday's NY session. Friday's London rally was capped twice at the 1.1410 friday high, just above the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, and Monday's Asia session gapped down to the 1.1378 weekly open on weekend Fed rhetoric and Middle East tension. Price is now recovering off the 1.1373 asia low toward the 1.1392 gap fill, sitting on converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 1.1388–1.1390 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.13776, 1.13731, 1.13589
Resistance: 1.13916, 1.1400, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1392 gap fill and the 1.1400 round number puts the 1.1410 friday high back in play; a break there clears the range top and the 38.2% fib, opening the 50% fib near 1.1418
Loss of the asia low at 1.1373 and the higher-lows trendline from Thursday returns focus to the 1.1359 swing low; a close below it voids the double bottom
Tuesday's Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Fed speakers Musalem, Goolsbee and Williams could shift this range read
Lower highs from 1.1478, now ranging 1.1359–1.1410.
The week's dominant move was a London- and NY-led slide from 1.1478 on Tuesday to a 1.1359 week low on Thursday. Wednesday's PMI and Thursday's IFO beats did not stop it, so the move reads as USD-driven. Friday's London rebound was capped twice at the 1.1410 fri high, just above the 38.2% retracement. Monday's Asia open then gapped below the 1.1392 fri close on hawkish weekend Fed rhetoric and Middle East tension, and dipped to a 1.1373 monday low. Price sits just under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 48, rotating inside the 1.1359–1.1410 range above Friday's 1.1368 swing low.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1368, 1.1359
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1410, 1.1430
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1392 fri close fills the weekend gap and brings the 1.1410 fri high back into focus
Close above the 1.1410 fri high breaks the range top and the 38.2% cap, opening the old 1.1430 tue low
Failure to hold the 1.1373 monday low and 1.1368 swing low exposes the 1.1359 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers Tue (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and Eurozone HICP Tue 07:00 UTC could shift the range read
German CPI Wed 06:45 UTC and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the main range-break risks