Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating into week high.
EUR has ground higher off the 1.1320 13-month-low zone, reclaiming the 1.1400 pivot and trading above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low 60s. The 1.14336 week high spiked and faded once already; price is now consolidating just beneath it into the late NY session. Eurozone sentiment beats (ESI 95, Services 3.2) and easing Hormuz risk-off underpinned the bounce, but the move stalled short of the 1.1470 cap.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1411, 1.1378
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.1470
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14336 opens the path toward the 1.1470 cap
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot exposes the 1.1378 weekly low
French CPI EU-norm and German Retail Sales Tue 06:00-06:45 UTC could shift this read
EUR has ground higher since the week opened near 1.1384, building a steady chain of higher lows and tagging a week high at 1.14303 in the NY session before stalling. Eurozone sentiment beats (ESI 95 vs 94.3) underpin the bid, but the pair is flattening into resistance with RSI(14) easing off the highs. Price holds well above EMA20/EMA50 with the last six bars coiling in a tight 1.1421–1.1430 range.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13844, 1.1405
Resistance: 1.14303, 1.14336, 1.1470
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14336 opens the path toward the 1.1470 cap
Loss of 1.14000 psych level would break the week's higher-low sequence
Tue German Retail Sales and French CPI (06:00-06:45 UTC) could shift this read
EURUSD has trended higher since the Monday reopen, clearing the 1.1400 round number and the prior cap as the USD softened for a third day on US-Iran de-escalation. Price is now consolidating in a tight band under the 1.14336 week high, with the 1.14303 session high capping the latest push and RSI(14) holding in the low-60s. The advance is sitting well above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13784
Resistance: 1.14303, 1.14336
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14336 week high extends the move toward the 1.1470 cap
Loss of 1.14000 round number opens a pullback to the 1.13784 swing low
Tue German Retail Sales and French CPI (06:00-06:45 UTC) could shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 67 · price 1.14259
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday.
EUR has ground higher all week, holding above EMA20 with each pullback into the 1.1380–1.1390 area finding demand; the weekend gap was filled quickly and the advance resumed. Firm sentiment data and a hawkish Sintra tone underpin the bid, with the week high at 1.14336 the immediate cap into the NY close. RSI(14) sits elevated near 67 as price presses the upper edge of the week's range.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1380, 1.1390
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.1450
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.14336 opens the path toward the 1.14500 psych level
Loss of the 1.13800 prior range would break the week's higher-low sequence
German CPI and Eurozone data Tue 06:00-09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 66 · price 1.14277
Higher highs, higher lows since reopen.
EUR has ground higher through the NY session, posting a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the Monday reopen low at 1.13806, and price now sits just under the 1.14336 week high. The bid reflects the hawkish Sintra tone and a run of better-than-expected EZ confidence data keeping the ECB hike premium sticky. Price holds well above EMA20 with RSI(14) firm near 66, pullbacks finding support at the 1.14160 higher low.
Support: 1.1416, 1.1400, 1.13806
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.1450
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14336 week high opens the path toward 1.14500
Failure to hold 1.14160 breaks the higher-low sequence
EZ Retail Sales and German prelim CPI (Jun 30, from 06:00 UTC) could shift this read
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum building · RSI 65 · price 1.14253
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-week low.
EURUSD has trended higher since Monday's open at 1.13844, with the NY session driving the break above 1.1410 and price now pressing the week high at 1.14336. EUR is underpinned by hawkish Sintra commentary and a run of data beats (ESI 95, M3 +3.2%). RSI holds in the low-60s on pullbacks while EMA20 near 1.1400 has caught dips.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13844, 1.13784
Resistance: 1.14303, 1.14336
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.14336 week high would stall the breakout read
A close back below 1.13844 weekly open breaks the higher-low sequence
German prelim CPI / EZ retail sales (Jun 30) and US JOLTS could materially shift this read
EURUSD has climbed steadily off this week's 1.1324 base and is pressing the prior 1.14336 week high, with price holding above EMA20 throughout the new week's NY session. EUR stays firm on the hawkish Sintra drumbeat and a batch of better-than-expected eurozone sentiment data. The 1.14247 session high caps for now while 1.14000 round number and the 1.13844 weekly open sit as the structure underneath.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13844, 1.13827
Resistance: 1.14247, 1.14336
What it said to watch
ECB Lagarde at 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.14336 week high opens the path higher
Loss of 1.14000 round number would break the higher-low sequence
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 63 · price 1.14205
Higher highs and higher lows.
EURUSD has trended higher since Friday's rally, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 zone on each pullback as soft-USD flows and a hawkish-hold ECB narrative underpin. The week high at 1.14336 capped the prior leg; price is pressing back toward it after defending the 1.14000 round number through the NY session. The 1.13784 higher low marks the base of this week's advance.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13784, 1.13844
Resistance: 1.1423, 1.14336
What it said to watch
ECB Lagarde Sintra speech 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.14336 opens the path to fresh week highs
Failure to hold 1.14000 exposes the 1.13784 higher low
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 61 · price 1.14117
Higher highs and higher lows since midweek low.
EUR/USD is on a third up-session, holding above the 1.1400 round number with USD soft as the US-Iran truce drains safe-haven demand. The week's impulse off the 1.1325 low peaked at 1.14336 before a shallow pullback that found demand near 1.1382; price has since reclaimed 1.1400 and sits just under the session high. RSI(14) is cycling in the upper half and price tracks above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1400, 1.1382, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.14336
What it said to watch
ECB's Lagarde at 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.1400 round number reopens the 1.13820 prior low
A close above 1.14336 week high extends the uptrend
14:01 UTC
Recovery, mild uptrend · RSI 60 · price 1.14028
Higher lows since week open.
EUR/USD has carved higher lows since Monday's open, reclaiming the 1.1400 psych handle with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50. The week high at 1.14147 capped the London push before a shallow pullback into the 1.13922 swing low, framed as a USD-driven drift rather than EUR fragility. RSI(14) is cycling in the upper-50s, consistent with the grind higher into Lagarde's Sintra address.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13922, 1.13784
Resistance: 1.14147, 1.14336
What it said to watch
Lagarde Sintra speech 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.14147 opens the path to the 1.14336 prior high
Higher lows since week's low, grinding toward week high.
EUR/USD has carved higher lows since the week's 1.1324 trough, recovering through the 1.1385 pivot and now holding above EMA20 and EMA50 into 1.1408. The week's 1.1434 high capped the rally last session, with price consolidating just under the 1.1415 session high. The euro leg stays USD-driven and rangebound; Lagarde's Sintra opener later today is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.1385, 1.13844, 1.13329
Resistance: 1.14147, 1.14336
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 17:30 UTC could reprice the EUR front-end and shift this read
H1 close above 1.14147 opens the path to the 1.1434 weekly high
Loss of the 1.1385 pivot confirms a lower-high and breaks the higher-low sequence
EUR/USD has clawed back from the 13-mo low at 1.1325 and sits above both EMAs into the NY session, with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-62 zone on pullbacks. The dominant move of the week was the impulse up to 1.1434 mid-week; price has since carved higher lows above the 1.1380 prior range, building back toward 1.1414. Dollar-driven softness, not euro strength, has underpinned the bounce ahead of Lagarde.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1414, 1.1434
What it said to watch
Lagarde at ECB forum 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1414 opens the path back to the 1.1434 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1380 prior range reopens 1.1325
Higher lows since Monday's dip, coiling near 1.1400.
EUR/USD has carved out higher lows since the 13-month low at 1.1325 printed mid-week, recovering above EMA20 (~1.1380) into a third up-day — a USD-led bounce as oil softened, not fresh euro strength. The NY session push tagged 1.1434 before fading, leaving price coiling near 1.1400 with RSI mid-range. The 1.1415 ny high and 1.1434 week high are the levels capping the recovery.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1415, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1434 extends the recovery toward the next leg
Lagarde speech 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1380 reopens the path back to 1.1325
EUR/USD has clawed back from the 1.1325 13-month low printed mid-week, building higher lows and grinding just under the 1.1400 cap on a USD-led recovery. The 1.14147 session high was rejected this morning and price has eased back toward EMA(20), which has supported the pullbacks. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 54, consistent with consolidation rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.1390, 1.13784, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14147, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1400 then 1.14147 opens the path to the 1.14336 week high
Failure to hold 1.13784 risks a retest of the 1.1325 13-mo low
Lagarde speech 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Recovery within broader downtrend · RSI 59 · price 1.14046
Higher lows off the weekly base.
EUR/USD has carved a third-session bounce off the 13-month base near 1.1325, with a double bottom at 1.1325/1.1333 and price now holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The dominant up-leg ran into 1.1434 mid-week before easing; the weekend gap reopened near 1.1380 and the NY recovery has pushed back to 1.1405. Softer oil and a steadier dollar after in-line flash HICP (3.6%) have underpinned the move, but broader trend bias stays heavy.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1352, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.14147, 1.14336
What it said to watch
ECB Lagarde speech today 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 1.14336 reopens the path toward 1.1500
Failure to hold 1.1380 exposes the 1.1352 swing low
08:01 UTC
Recovery off lows, momentum building · RSI 63 · price 1.14083
Higher lows since mid-week trough, testing range top.
EUR rebounded from the 13-month low at 1.1325 mid-week, rallying to 1.14336 before consolidating around 1.1380 across the weekend gap. The last two H1 bars pushed back above EMA20 and EMA50 toward the 1.1420 area as a softer dollar into quarter-end supported risk. RSI(14) near 63 reflects the renewed bid without yet reaching extremes.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside read and opens the upper band toward 1.14336
Failure to hold the 1.1380 consolidation reopens 1.1325
ECB Lagarde 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD based at the 1.1325 13-month low on Wednesday and recovered through Thursday's NY session to a 1.1434 high, helped by softer oil and a cooler USD. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 1.1380–1.1394 band through the thin Monday open, hovering on EMA20 with RSI(14) parked mid-range near 53. The 38.2% retrace of the week's impulse around 1.1392 is being held.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the downside read and exposes 1.1434+
Failure to hold 1.1380 reopens the 1.1360 swing low and 1.1325 weekly low
German HICP at 07:00 and Lagarde speech at 17:30 could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Recovery stalling into consolidation · RSI 46 · price 1.13824
Range above the 13-mo low, mid-recovery pullback.
EUR clawed off the 1.1325 13-month low and spiked to 1.1434 mid-week before fading; price now sits around 1.1382, near the 50% retrace of that recovery and just under EMA20 with RSI flat near 46. Action has compressed into a tight range through thin Sunday/holiday liquidity, holding above EMA50.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
German HICP at 07:00 UTC is the swing factor and could break the consolidation
Close above 1.1400 pivot reopens the path to 1.1420/1.1434
Loss of 1.1378 consol low exposes a retest toward 1.1325
05:01 UTC
Consolidation after midweek bounce · RSI 49 · price 1.1384
Ranging below EMA20, off the 1.1325 low.
EUR/USD bounced off the 1.1325 13-month low midweek and ran to 1.1434 before fading, with that high rejecting cleanly. Price has since coiled into a tight 1.1378–1.1393 band, sitting just under EMA20 but holding above EMA50, and RSI(14) is flat near 50. The thin holiday tape has kept ranges compressed since the rally stalled.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1350, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1393, 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
German HICP 07:00 UTC could break the 1.1378–1.1393 range
Close above 1.1420 reopens the path to the 1.1434 week high
Loss of 1.1378 exposes 1.1350 and the 1.1325 low
Lagarde 17:30 UTC is a high-impact risk for this read
04:01 UTC
Range after bounce off lows · RSI 51 · price 1.1388
Consolidation, mid-range.
EUR/USD rebounded off the 1.1325 13-month low mid-week and tagged 1.1434 as a sharp oil drop and softer USD lifted sentiment, then settled into a 1.1378–1.1420 range. Price is hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat around 50 through thin early-week flow, no directional follow-through after the bounce. The 1.1434 week high capped the recovery and remains the upper boundary of this consolidation.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1345, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1345 range low reopens the 1.1325 13-mo low
Break above 1.1420 pivot exposes the 1.1434 week high
German HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidation mid-range after bounce off 13-month low.
EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.1325 13-month low to print 1.1434 mid-week before settling back near 1.1385 in thin, holiday-skewed flow. Price now coils just below EMA(20) and above EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 50, sitting around the 50% retracement of the rebound. The 1.1390 area has capped recent attempts while 1.1378 has held on the downside.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside read, opening 1.1434 week high
Failure to hold 1.1378 range low exposes 1.1325 again
Lagarde speech 17:30 UTC — only high-impact event today, could shift this read
EUR/USD rallied off the 1.1325 13-month low into Friday's NY session, tagging 1.1434 before fading on month-end flows. Price now sits at 1.1388, holding roughly the 50% retrace of that bounce and capped below the 1.1400 pivot, with RSI(14) flattening mid-range. The recent Sunday bars are thin holiday flow defining a 1.1378-1.1400 consolidation.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1400 reopens the 1.1434 week high
Failure to hold 1.1378 swing low exposes the 1.1325 week low
Lagarde 17:30 UTC and German HICP could materially shift this read
Bounced off 1.1325 lows, now consolidating below EMA20.
EUR carved a double bottom at the 1.1325 13-month low mid-week and rallied to a week high near 1.1433 as softer US PCE eased the dollar. Price has since faded back to the 50% fib of that rebound around 1.1380 and is consolidating just below the EMA20 with RSI(14) drifting into the mid-40s. The 1.1420 area remains the level capping any extension after the early-week slide.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1359, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1420, 1.1433
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the downside read and reopens the week high at 1.1433
Failure to hold the 1.1380 50% fib exposes 1.1359 swing low then the 1.1325 13-month low
Lagarde speech 17:30 UTC and tomorrow's Eurozone flash CPI are the week's main catalysts and could reset this read
US ADP/ISM risk could revive the dollar bid
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating off lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13861
Range between 1.1325 and 1.1434 after 13-mo low.
Price carved a 13-month low near 1.1325 mid-week after the hot US PCE print, then twice held that floor and bounced to a 1.1434 week high before fading back to 1.1386. The pair now sits just under EMA20 and inside the 1.1345-1.1420 range the digest flags; rejection at the range top has capped the recovery while demand held the double-bottom base. RSI cycling mid-40s reflects the stalled bounce on quiet Monday-open volume.
Support: 1.1345, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1420 range top invalidates the range read, opens 1.1500
Failure to hold 1.1345 range floor exposes the 1.1325 13-mo low
German HICP Mon 07:00 and Lagarde Mon 17:30 could shift this read
Eurozone flash CPI Tue is the week's key catalyst for the range