Price spent three weeks grinding lower into a 1.1353 base before the FOMC hold triggered a sharp bullish bar that reclaimed the 1.1400 pivot and closed at 1.14487, retracing most of the 1.1482-1.1353 down leg. The double-bottom near 1.1353/1.1363 has held twice, and the reclaim of 1.1400 flips the recent range read. Momentum is now stretched into the lower-highs band around 1.1475-1.1482.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1482 confirms a break of the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot puts the 1.1353 swing low back in view
Thu 12:30 UTC US Core PCE + GDP cluster could reset the USD leg
21:01 UTC
Range breaking higher, momentum turning up · RSI 61 · price 1.14487
1.1353-1.1476 range, upside break on last bar.
EUR/USD spent two weeks compressing in a 1.1353-1.1476 range before the last H4 bar surged through the 1.1400 pivot to 1.1466, closing at 1.14487 as the Fed's widely-priced hawkish hold left stretched USD longs to unwind. The move reclaims both EMAs and takes the descending lower-highs line off the table for now. ATR remains subdued but the breakout candle is a clear expansion.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.14663, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 acceptance above 1.1400 confirms the range break; loss of it reopens the 1.1353-1.1324 zone
Rejection at 1.14663 session high / 1.14820 prior high caps the breakout
Thu 12:30 UTC US Core PCE/GDP and 08:00 UTC EZ Q2 GDP could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13827
Lower highs since 1.1482, compressing above 1.1353.
Downtrend intact on H4 with a clean series of lower highs since the 1.1482 peak, and price has spent this week grinding under the 1.1400 psych cap. The last four sessions have coiled between the 1.1353 swing low and 1.1400, keeping price pinned below both EMAs as EUR fades ECB hike pricing into tonight's Fed. ATR is mid-range, reflecting the pre-event compression.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1445
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT is the dominant near-term driver and can break this range either way
H4 close below 1.1353 confirms continuation toward the 1.1324 ytd low
Reclaim of 1.1400 psych cap would neutralise the lower-high structure
Lower highs since 1.1482 peak, ranging 1.1353-1.1400.
EURUSD has been rolling over since the 1.1482 swing high, printing lower highs and settling into a 1.1353-1.1400 range near monthly lows, with the pair pinned by a firm USD into tonight's Fed. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to sub-30 pips, a coiled regime. The 1.1400 round number continues to cap recovery attempts while 1.1353 is the near-term downside pivot.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1362, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 GMT is the dominant driver and can materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.1400 invalidates the range-low read and opens the path back toward 1.1482
Failure to hold 1.1353 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, ranging near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.13808
Lower highs, pinned in 1.1353-1.1400 range.
Price has rolled over from the early-month 1.1482 swing high into a tightening 1.1353-1.1400 range, printing lower highs with EUR pinned near monthly lows as USD stays firm into tonight's Fed. ATR(14) has compressed toward 17 pips, a coiling regime ahead of the decision. The 1.1400 handle continues to cap rebounds while 1.1353 has absorbed the last two dips.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT is the dominant driver and can override this structural read
H4 close above 1.1400 range cap would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.1353 opens the path toward the 1.1324 ytd low
Downtrend intact since the mid-month peak at 1.1482, printing successive lower highs and a fresh lower low at 1.1353. A pre-FOMC bounce, tied to a softening USD, is lifting price back to retest the 1.1400 pivot from below. ATR(14) has compressed as the market coils into the Fed decision.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14355, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.1400 pivot opens the path back toward the 1.14355 lower high
Failure to hold 1.1353 confirms continuation toward the 1.1324 ytd low
Lower highs since mid-July peak, recent higher-low forming off 1.1353.
Price has been carving lower highs since the mid-July peak at 1.1482, pressing to a swing low of 1.1353 just above the 1.1324 YTD low before bouncing. The recovery back toward the 1.1400 pivot tracks the pre-Fed USD pause noted in the macro read, with ATR(14) compressing as the market coils into the FOMC. Price sits back above EMA20 but capped under EMA50, keeping the broader downtrend intact.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1445, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.1400 pivot opens the path to prior high 1.1445
Failure to hold 1.1353 swing low exposes the 1.1324 YTD low
Lower highs from 1.1480, ranging above 1.1353 base.
H4 has rolled over from the 1.1480 month high into a sequence of lower highs, but the decline has stalled into a 1.1353-1.1420 range as buyers defended 1.1353 twice. Price sits just above a flattening EMA20 while capped below EMA50, and the recovery off the base reflects the two-way EUR tone with a soft US confidence print blunting USD strength. ATR is compressed, consistent with the sideways drift below 1.1400.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1480
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1420 negates the lower-high sequence and opens 1.1480
Loss of 1.1353 confirms a lower low toward the 1.1324 ytd low
FOMC decision ~18:00 UTC today could reset this read
Lower highs into 1.1350-1.1480 range, bounce off lows.
EUR/USD has drifted lower over the window in a sequence of lower highs, but demand stepped in around the 1.1353 swing low and lifted price back to 1.1396, just under the 1.1400 cap. The pair is pinned near monthly lows on USD strength, with the 1.1350-1.1480 band framing the last two weeks of trade. ATR near 21 pips reflects a compressed, range-bound regime ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1445, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1353 exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
Reclaim of the 1.1400 cap would ease the lower-high sequence
EURUSD has ground lower from the 1.1476 swing high into a tight range along the YTD-low zone, printing lower highs while demand repeatedly steps in near 1.1353. The bounce toward 1.1400 tracks a soft US Consumer Confidence miss, but the 1.1400 round number continues to cap and price sits below the H4 EMA50, keeping the broader move offered. ATR is mid-range — neither compressed nor expanding — with the pair pinned on the USD leg into the Fed.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1446, 1.1476
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.1400 negates the range-cap read and opens 1.1446
Failure to hold 1.1353 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1324 ytd low
H4 has carved a series of lower highs down from 1.1482, with price now pinned in a tight base above the 1.1353/1.1362 lows. ATR(14) has compressed sharply as the pair coils near YTD lows into the FOMC decision, with EUR support fragile since a September ECB hike is broadly priced. Rallies keep stalling into the 1.1405/1.1418 shelf that has capped every bounce this window.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1362, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1405, 1.1418, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and can break this coil either way
H4 close below 1.1353 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
H4 close above 1.1405 challenges the lower-high structure toward 1.1418
H4 has been rolling over since the 1.1482 swing high, printing lower highs while rallies stall into the 1.1400/1.1418 band that capped the last two attempts. Price is pinned above the 1.1353 swing low with EMA20 below EMA50, and the digest ties the pressure to a firm USD into FOMC. ATR is compressed near 16 pips, consistent with coiling ahead of the event.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1362, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1418, 1.1482
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1353/1.1362 exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
H4 close above 1.1418 invalidates the lower-high read
FOMC Wednesday 18:00 UTC could materially shift this structure