Breakout from multi-week range, higher highs/lows.
EURUSD broke out of the 1.1350-1.1450 range that had capped price for two weeks, driven by the post-FOMC dollar slide and sticky Eurozone core inflation. The impulse to 1.15367 established a fresh week high, and price is now consolidating just below it after a pullback to 1.14811 held. ATR(14) has expanded off the compression regime, consistent with the trend leg extending.
Support: 1.14878, 1.14656, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Close above 1.15367 week high opens the path higher
Failure to hold the 1.14878 swing low threatens a lower low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and NFP later could materially shift the dollar leg
17:01 UTC
Uptrend after range break · RSI 65 · price 1.15149
Broke multi-week range top, higher highs.
EURUSD spent three weeks capped inside a 1.1370-1.1470 range before breaking topside on the post-FOMC dollar slide, extending to 1.1537 as sticky Eurozone core HICP added a firm underpinning. Price is now consolidating just under the swing high with higher structure intact and ATR(14) having expanded on the breakout leg. Both EMAs sit below price after the impulsive move up.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1470, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.1500 round number keeps the recovery intact
A close back below the 1.1470 breakout level would negate the range break
US ISM Manufacturing Mon could reprice the dollar and shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 57 · price 1.14832
Range break higher, first retracement underway.
Price broke cleanly above the multi-day 1.136-1.142 range and ran to 1.15367 on broad post-Fed USD weakness and hot EZ inflation, before pulling back to 1.14832. The move stretched ATR(14) sharply higher and left EMA20 above EMA50; the current retreat sits near the 38.2% retracement of the impulse from 1.13615. Holding the 1.14700 breakout-retest zone would keep the breakout structure intact.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1449, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15367
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.14700 breakout retest keeps the breakout read intact
Close back below 1.14490 opens deeper retracement toward the 1.14250 prior range
Aug 3 EZ Retail Sales / Mfg PMI and US ISM are the next structural test
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback after breakout · RSI 58 · price 1.14832
Multi-week range broken to the upside, retesting breakout zone.
EURUSD broke out of a three-week 1.1350-1.1470 range on Jul 30-31, spiking to a six-week high at 1.1537 on broad USD weakness following the soft US GDP and Core PCE prints. The last bar rejected 1.1520 and pulled back to 1.14832, now retesting the 1.1470 breakout shelf. ATR(14) has expanded sharply with the impulse, and both EMAs sit below price.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1425, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1537
What it said to watch
Holding 1.1470 keeps the breakout retest constructive; an H4 close back below it negates the range break
1.1500-1.1537 is the area to watch for renewed rejection or a break to fresh highs
Aug 3 EZ Retail Sales and final Mfg PMI (f/c 52.2), plus US data, could shift this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend after range breakout · RSI 65 · price 1.15125
EURUSD spent three weeks capped inside a 1.1370-1.1480 range before a sharp impulse cleared 1.1470 and printed a fresh swing high at 1.1537, driven by the EUR-supportive Q2 GDP double-beat and hot German CPI reinforcing ECB Sept hike pricing. Price is now consolidating in the upper 1.150s just below that high, with ATR(14) expanded from the breakout leg and both EMAs left below spot. The Eurozone flash HICP release is the immediate catalyst.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1470, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 2.9%/2.4% core) is the key catalyst for the next bars
A close back below 1.1470 negates the breakout and re-opens the prior range
Failure to reclaim 1.15367 keeps price pinned in consolidation
US ECI/Michigan later today could lift USD and cap the move
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 67 · price 1.15125
Broke multi-week range, holding near highs.
EURUSD broke out of the 1.1350-1.1420 multi-week range with a sharp impulse to 1.1537, EUR firming after the Q2 GDP double-beat and hot German CPI reinforced Sept ECB hike pricing. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1500 psych level and prior 100-day SMA cap, with ATR(14) expanding as the trend extends. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit below price, confirming the shift out of the prior range.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1470, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Sustained close back below 1.1500 psych puts price back inside the broken range
Close above the 1.15367 swing high extends the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.14700 breakout level would negate the range break
US ECI (12:30 GMT) and Michigan sentiment could materially shift this read
After three weeks boxed in a 1.1365-1.1470 range, EUR/USD broke out hard, printing a fresh six-week high at 1.1537 as broad USD weakness and hot Eurozone GDP/German CPI drove the bid. The move is steep and RSI is stretched into overbought, with price extended well above both EMAs. The prior 1.1470 range ceiling now flips to the first structural support to watch on any pullback.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1435, 1.1365
Resistance: 1.1537
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back below 1.1470 negates the breakout and returns price to the prior range
Holding above 1.1470 keeps the higher-high structure intact
EURUSD broke out of a multi-week 1.1360-1.1480 range to six-week highs after the Q2 GDP beat and hot German CPI met a dovish-leaning Fed hold that softened the dollar. Price is stacked above both EMAs with a bullish EMA cross and an expanding ATR confirming the impulsive leg from the 1.1353 swing low. RSI at overbought territory reflects how vertical the move has been into the 1.1537 recent high.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1435, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1537
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A hold above the 1.1470 breakout keeps the range break valid
H4 close back below 1.1435 prior pivot would negate the breakout
EURUSD broke decisively out of the multi-week 1.1355-1.1470 range, printing a fresh swing high at 1.15367 after soft US GDP/PCE and firm Eurozone GDP and German CPI reset rate-differential expectations. The move is steep and RSI is stretched into overbought territory, with price extended well above both EMAs. The broken range top near 1.1466 now sits as first support and aligns with the 38.2% retrace of the rally leg.
Support: 1.1466, 1.1435, 1.1355
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1466 negates the breakout and opens a retest into the prior range
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC (core f/c 2.4%) could extend or fade this rally
Overbought RSI on this leg raises risk of consolidation before 1.1550