Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating under week high.
EUR/USD has run from Monday's 1.1353 open to the 1.1537 week high, driven by hawkish ECB repricing and broad USD softness after the Fed offered no forward guidance. Price dipped to 1.1455 during the prior NY session then recovered, holding above EMA(20) with RSI cycling in the upper half. The 1.1537 area has capped the last two attempts and price is coiling just beneath it.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1455, 1.1433
Resistance: 1.1537, 1.15305
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15370 opens continuation toward the next round figure
Failure to hold 1.15000 psych level exposes the 1.14550 swing low
EZ Retail Sales and Manufacturing PMI Mon Aug 3 could shift the read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 59 · price 1.15334
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday.
EUR has climbed ~160 pips off Monday's 1.137 open, with the dominant impulse coming during the NY session on the broad post-Fed dollar selloff (~1.5% DXY drop). Price pulled back to a higher low at 1.14844 before recovering to consolidate just under the 1.15367 week high. RSI(14) is holding the high-50s and pullbacks have been finding support above the 1.15000 psych level.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14844, 1.14339
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.15000 psych would question the higher-low structure
Break below 1.14844 swing low confirms a lower-low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon) and NFP week are the dominant swing risk via the USD leg
EURUSD has trended higher since Monday's open near 1.1367, the rally driven by the broad ~1.5% post-Fed USD selloff rather than fresh euro buying. After tagging the week high at 1.15370, price pulled back to 1.14550 during the NY session and buyers stepped back in, lifting the pair to retest the highs. RSI(14) is cycling in the 55-65 band on each pullback, and price holds above both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1504, 1.14847, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1537, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15370 extends the week's higher-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.15040 threatens the rising higher-low structure
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NFP later this week are the dominant USD swing risks for this read
EURUSD has trended higher since Monday's open, with the dominant leg firing through Thursday's NY session to a week high at 1.1537 on sticky Eurozone core HICP and a still-soft dollar. Price pulled back to 1.1455 before demand stepped back in, reclaiming 1.1500 and stalling around 1.1517 into the close. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought toward the mid-50s as price consolidates just under the week high.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1455, 1.1374
Resistance: 1.1537
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1537 opens the path to fresh weekly highs
Failure to hold 1.1500 exposes the 1.1455 swing low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via the dollar
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 53 · price 1.1517
Higher highs into consolidation below week high.
EURUSD rallied hard from Monday's 1.1355 base through the week as a dovish-perceived Fed and soft US GDP/PCE drove a broad dollar unwind, peaking at 1.1537. The move stalled into the NY session, with a flush to 1.1455 fully recovered and price now coiling just under the 1.1537 week high. Holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near mid-range after the sweep.
Support: 1.1485, 1.1455, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1537, 1.1525
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1537 opens the path to fresh weekly highs
Failure to hold 1.1485 reopens the 1.1455 sweep low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) is the dominant near-term dollar driver
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating under week high.
EUR/USD ran from Monday's 1.1367 open to a 1.1537 week high as the post-FOMC dollar selloff and firm Eurozone core HICP (2.5% vs 2.4%) drove the move, with the sharpest legs during the NY sessions Wednesday and Thursday. A volatile flush to 1.1455 was reclaimed within hours, leaving price consolidating around 1.1515 and holding above EMA20. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought back near the mid-50s while structure remains a series of higher lows.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1466, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.15258, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15367 opens the path to continuation
Failure to hold 1.15000 exposes the 1.14550 swing low and confirms a lower-low
ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) could reset the dollar tone and this read
EUR/USD accelerated higher Thursday into the NY session on the post-Fed USD selloff, tagging a week high at 1.1537. A pullback into Friday found demand around the 1.1455 session low before buyers reclaimed 1.1515, keeping price above EMA20 with RSI back in the mid-50s. The week's advance from Monday's 1.1370 base remains intact.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14844, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.1524
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15367 week high reopens upside
Failure to hold 1.14844 swing low exposes 1.1455 session low
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could shift this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 49 · price 1.1506
Higher highs into weekly high, now pulling back.
EUR/USD ran a clean uptrend since Monday's open, driven by the post-Fed USD selloff, printing a weekly high at 1.1537 before a sharp NY-session pullback to 1.1455. Price has since recovered to 1.1506, sitting just under EMA(20) with the 100-day SMA region near 1.1510 capping the bounce. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range as the failure to hold 1.1537 marks a stall in momentum against the earlier highs.
Support: 1.1485, 1.1455, 1.1434
Resistance: 1.1520, 1.1537
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1537 reopens the uptrend continuation
Failure to hold 1.1455 confirms a lower-low
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 14:00 UTC could shift the USD-driven read
EUR/USD ran from Monday's 1.1367 open to a week high at 1.1537, the bulk of the move a Thursday NY leg on the post-FOMC USD long-squeeze after soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE. Price then pulled back to 1.1455 and has bounced to 1.1506, now sitting right on the flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) back at 49 after cycling down from overbought. The rising sequence of higher lows off Monday remains intact.
Support: 1.1466, 1.1455, 1.1480
Resistance: 1.1520, 1.1537
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1520 reopens the 1.1537 week high
Failure to hold 1.1466 exposes the 1.1455 swing low
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) could reset the USD squeeze read
Double top at week high, breaking back below 1.1500.
EURUSD rallied hard Wednesday-Thursday off the Monday base near 1.1356 into a double top around 1.1537, aided by the post-FOMC dollar squeeze on soft US GDP/PCE. Friday's NY session flipped that, with a firmer USD dragging price back below the 1.1500 psych level and printing a session low at 1.1455. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 38, momentum having rolled over from the highs.
Support: 1.1455, 1.14339
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1500 would neutralise the double-top breakdown
Failure to hold 1.1455 exposes the 1.1434 swing low
ISM Manufacturing (Mon 14:00 UTC) and EZ Retail Sales could reset this read
14:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 40 · price 1.14649
Retracing from week high after double-top stall.
EURUSD rallied hard from Wednesday's 1.1353 base to a 1.15367 week high on the soft US GDP and PCE prints, but twin peaks near 1.1535 stalled the move and price has since rolled over. The NY-session slide through 1.1503 dropped price to a session low at 1.1455 as the dollar short-covered, leaving H1 below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) sub-40. The pullback is holding around the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1437, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1503, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1455 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1437 swing low
Reclaim of 1.1503 prior high would neutralise the pullback
US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations and Mon ISM Manufacturing could materially shift this read
EUR/USD ran to a 1.15367 week high on the back of broad USD weakness after Thursday's soft US GDP and Core PCE prints, but the last NY-into-Asia stretch has faded the move, printing lower highs and slipping back below EMA(20) near 1.1490. RSI(14) has cooled into the low-40s while price failed to reclaim the 1.15100 barrier, and the pair is now leaning on the mid-1.1480s. EZ Core HICP came in a touch hot at 2.5% but did not extend the rally.
Support: 1.14339, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.1510, 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.15100 barrier reopens the 1.15367 week high
Loss of 1.14339 swing low confirms a deeper retracement of the weekly rally
1.14250 wk support is the next shelf below if 1.14339 gives way
EUR/USD ripped above 1.1500 into Thursday's NY session on the soft US GDP and cooling Core PCE prints, printing a week high at 1.15367 before fading. Price has since drifted back to the 1.15000 round number, slipping under EMA(20) while holding well above EMA(50). RSI(14) has unwound from overbought toward the mid-40s as the rally consolidates below the highs.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1470, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.1525
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.15250 re-engages the 1.15367 week high
Loss of 1.15000 round number opens the 1.14700 breakout base
US UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 GMT) could shift the USD read
EUR/USD pushed to fresh six-week highs at 1.1537 this week on broad USD weakness after soft US GDP and core PCE, then stalled into a tight range above the 1.1500 psych pivot. Price has drifted back under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling toward the mid-40s, but buyers stepped in twice near 1.1503 to hold the round number. The dominant impulse off Wednesday's 1.1353 base is only shallowly retraced.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1503, 1.1425
Resistance: 1.1537, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1500 opens the path toward the 1.1425 pivot
Break and hold above 1.1537 resumes the weekly uptrend
US ECI / Chicago PMI / UoM data later today could shift the USD read
EUR/USD pushed to a six-week high near 1.1537 this week, driven by broad USD weakness post-Fed (soft Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE) alongside EZ GDP and CPI beats. Since the NY-session breakout above 1.15 the pair has consolidated in a 1.1504–1.1537 range, holding the 1.15 pivot on the latest pullback with RSI cycling in the mid-50s. EMA(20) has supported dips through the London session.
Support: 1.1500, 1.15041, 1.14724
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.15303
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15367 opens the path toward 1.1600
Failure to hold the 1.15 pivot confirms a lower-low toward 1.1472
US ECI and UoM inflation expectations later today could shift the USD leg
EURUSD ran from Monday's 1.1376 open to a fresh week high at 1.15367, the bulk of the leg firing in Thursday's NY session after the Eurozone Q2 GDP double-beat and hot German CPI reinforced ECB Sept-hike pricing. Since that high the pair has stalled and is consolidating around 1.1520, holding above a rising EMA20 (~1.1516) with pullbacks so far finding the 1.1504 range low. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s as upside momentum flattens near the 100-day SMA cap.
Support: 1.1516, 1.1504, 1.1469
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15367 opens continuation; failure keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of 1.1504 range low breaks this week's rising-low structure toward the 1.1469 breakout
Eurozone flash HICP and US ECI (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Pullback from weekly high, holding above prior breakout.
EURUSD ran from Monday's ~1.1375 open to a weekly high of 1.15367 into Thursday's NY session, a broad-based leg powered by the Eurozone Q2 GDP double-beat and a dovish-leaning Fed hold. Price has since drifted back to 1.1512 and slipped under the EMA20, with RSI(14) unwinding toward mid-40s as the 1.15367 top capped the advance. The 1.1450 breakout shelf still sits well below, keeping the weekly rally intact for now.
Support: 1.15044, 1.1500, 1.14735
Resistance: 1.15245, 1.15367
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 2.9%/2.4%) could materially shift this read within the next bar
H1 close below 1.15000 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.14735
EUR/USD ripped higher through Thursday's NY session, a clean impulse off the 1.1376 base to a six-week high at 1.1537 on the double-beat Eurozone GDP and hot German CPI plus a softer dollar. Price has since faded to ~1.1516 and is chopping in a 1.1504–1.1537 band, hovering just under the H1 EMA(20) with RSI cooling back to neutral. The 1.15367 week high caps, while demand has repeatedly emerged near the 1.1504 session low.
Support: 1.15041, 1.1460, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.1520
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC is the day's catalyst and could break the range
H1 close above 1.15367 opens the path back toward June-17 highs
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high near 1.1537 through Thursday's NY session after the Fed hold and the EZ Q2 GDP beat undercut a soft-US-data dollar. Price has since eased into the Asia session and is drifting just below the EMA20 around 1.1520, twin rejections at 1.1535 leaving a capped top. Higher-lows from Monday's base remain intact while 1.1500 holds.
Support: 1.15044, 1.1500, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1520, 1.15352
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US ECI/Chicago PMI later — main catalysts that could shift this read
H1 close below 1.1500 exposes the 1.1470 breakout base
EUR/USD ran hard Wednesday–Thursday after the Fed hold and soft US GDP/Core PCE, compounded by the EZ Q2 GDP beat, printing a six-week high at 1.15367 before easing. Price has since slipped back under EMA20 (~1.1513) and is consolidating in the 1.1504–1.1520 band as US-Iran risk-off lends the dollar a safe-haven bid. RSI has cooled toward the mid-40s as the impulse loses steam.
Support: 1.15044, 1.1500, 1.14695
Resistance: 1.1513, 1.15367
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC is the day's main catalyst and could shift this read
H1 close below 1.15044 exposes the 1.1470 breakout base
Reclaim of the 1.15130 EMA20 puts the 1.15367 week high back in play
EUR/USD tore higher through the NY session yesterday, gapping from the low-1.14s to a six-week high at 1.15367 on the Q2 GDP double-beat and soft US GDP/PCE that kept the dollar heavy. Price has since drifted back to 1.1507, sliding under EMA(20) with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought toward the mid-40s. The 1.15041 swing low is holding for now while the 1.15367 week high caps the advance.
Support: 1.15041, 1.1500, 1.1474
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.1530
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC is the key EUR catalyst — a Core miss could unwind the rally
H1 close below 1.15041 opens the path toward the 1.14740 prior high
Reclaim of 1.15367 would resume the week's advance
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling · RSI 47 · price 1.1507
Pullback from six-week high after impulse.
EUR/USD accelerated Wednesday into Thursday, breaking out to a six-week high at 1.1537 as the dollar sold off on soft US GDP/core PCE and EUR was bid on the Q2 GDP double-beat. Price has since eased into the 1.1507 area, slipping under the H1 EMA(20) around 1.1516 for the first time since the breakout while RSI cycles back toward the midline. The 1.1447 breakout base remains the deeper reference below current price.
Support: 1.1504, 1.1447, 1.1376
Resistance: 1.1516, 1.1537
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1516 EMA20 keeps the breakout structure intact
Loss of 1.1504 session low opens the path back toward 1.1447
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC is the key EUR catalyst this session
US ECI 12:30 GMT could reassert dollar direction
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 43 · price 1.1507
Higher highs, consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high near 1.1537 through the NY session on strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and a soft-USD backdrop after the weak US GDP and cooler core PCE prints. Price has since drifted off the high and slipped back under EMA(20) around 1.1518, with RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s. The 1.1502 swing low is holding for now as the base of the post-breakout consolidation.
Support: 1.1502, 1.1493, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1518, 1.1537
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1502 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1493 fib area
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 1.1518 puts the 1.1537 week high back in play
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high at 1.15367 on the back of hot Eurozone Q2 GDP and soft US GDP/PCE prints, an impulse that lifted price ~180 pips off midweek lows. Two attempts at 1.1535 have since capped and price is drifting back toward the EMA20 near 1.1512, with RSI(14) unwinding from overbought toward the mid-line. The 1.1500 psych and the 1.1470 wk pivot mark the first shelves under the pullback.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1500 psych opens the path to the 1.1470 wk pivot
Reclaim of the 1.15367 week high resumes the up-leg
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high at 1.15367 through the week as strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and soft US GDP/PCE prints kept the Dollar broadly offered. Price has since faded off that high and slipped back under the H1 EMA(20), now probing the 1.15058 session low with RSI cooling toward 46. The broader impulse off the 1.1374 base remains intact while price holds above prior swing support.
Support: 1.15058, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.15305
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.15058 confirms a deeper pullback toward 1.14700
Reclaim of 1.15305 and a break of 1.15367 reopens the week-high extension
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI could shift the USD tone into NY hours
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high near 1.1537 through Wednesday's NY session after hot Eurozone GDP and German CPI met a soft US GDP and cooler core PCE, pressuring the Dollar. Price has since drifted back to the EMA20 around 1.1515 with RSI cooling off overbought into the low-50s. The week's uptrend structure holds while 1.1470 remains intact.
Support: 1.1470, 1.1434
Resistance: 1.1537, 1.1515
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1470 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1537 reopens the path toward fresh highs
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high at 1.15367 through the NY session as soft US Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE, plus suspected JPY intervention, pressured the dollar while a strong Eurozone Q2 GDP beat firmed the euro. Price has since drifted back to 1.15112, pulling into the EMA(20) and holding the 1.15096 session low. The 1.15305-1.15367 area has capped the latest push and now defines the range top.
Support: 1.15096, 1.1500, 1.14836
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.15305
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (core f/c 2.4%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.15367 reopens the path higher off the week high
Failure to hold 1.15000 confirms a deeper pullback in the week's uptrend
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high at 1.15367 through the NY session as double-strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and hot German CPI met a soft US Q2 GDP and cooler core PCE. The last few bars have faded off that high back toward 1.1510, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought while price still holds above the rising EMA(20). The 1.15367 high capped the advance and is the level being tested from below.
Support: 1.15097, 1.14933, 1.14721
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.15305
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC — an in-line/miss print could unwind the stretched EUR rally
Close below 1.15097 opens a deeper retrace toward the 1.14933 fib and 1.14721 swing
Sustained trade above 1.15367 extends the week's uptrend
Higher highs into six-week high, shallow pullback from 1.1537.
EUR/USD broke decisively higher through the NY session as double-strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and hot German CPI met a softer US GDP/Core PCE and suspected JPY intervention weighing broadly on the dollar, driving a six-week high at 1.1537. Price has since eased back toward 1.1510, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from stretched levels into a shallow consolidation. The 1.15367 top has capped, while the 1.1500 round number is the first pullback marker.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1474, 1.14339
Resistance: 1.15367, 1.15305
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC and US ECI 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.1500 opens room toward the 1.1474 breakout base
A reclaim of 1.1537 reopens the upside continuation
EUR/USD ran to six-week highs near 1.1537 this week as strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and hot German CPI met a softer US GDP/Core PCE print and suspected JPY intervention dragging the dollar broadly lower. The bulk of the move came in the London-NY window mid-week, and price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1513–1.1537 band into Asia hours, holding above EMA(20). RSI(14) has eased from overbought back toward the mid-50s as the rally rests.
Support: 1.15134, 1.1513, 1.14695
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15367 extends the week's rally to fresh highs
Loss of 1.15134 swing low opens room back toward the 1.14695 breakout
Eurozone flash HICP 09:00 UTC — a Core miss vs 2.4% f/c could unwind the stretched EUR bid
EUR/USD ran to a six-week high near 1.15367 through Thursday's NY session, the breakout accelerating after the dovish Fed hold and soft US GDP, layered on strong Eurozone Q2 GDP and hot German CPI. Price has held above EMA(20) since the mid-week base, with pullbacks shallow and RSI(14) cycling in the upper half. Since the breakout above 1.1483, the tape has coiled between 1.15130 and 1.15367 into the Asian session.
Support: 1.1513, 1.1502, 1.1483
Resistance: 1.15367
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash HICP at 09:00 UTC — a soft Core print carries downside asymmetry given priced-in Sept ECB hike
H1 close above 1.15367 opens continuation of the week's advance
Failure to hold 1.15130 signals the first lower-low since the breakout
EUR/USD ran from the 1.1353 midweek low to a fresh week high at 1.1537, with the dominant impulse coming through the NY session as the USD stayed soft post-Fed and EZ Q2 GDP beat. The breakout above the 1.1470 prior high has held, and price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1513–1.1537 band into the weekend. RSI(14) sits elevated near 66 as the advance flattens.
Support: 1.1513, 1.1470, 1.1435
Resistance: 1.1537
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP Fri 09:00 UTC — an upside core surprise could extend above 1.1537, a miss risks unwinding the breakout
H1 close back below 1.1470 would negate the breakout read
Loss of 1.1513 opens the consolidation lower toward the prior-high retest