Lower highs from 1.3311 week high; lower low at 1.3181.
Cable reversed from Wednesday's false break above 1.3300, a London-session spike to the 1.3311 week high on the Q2 GDP upgrade and softer PCE, and has printed lower highs since. Thursday's London open and the NY-session US data, firm claims and hot ISM prices paid with DXY clearing 102, took price through the 1.3202 tue low to a 1.3181 week low. Price now consolidates below the 1.3228 weekly open and a rolled-over EMA(20) near 1.3211, with RSI(14) near 38; the only meaningful bounce stalled at the 1.3249 lower high, close to the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu drop.
Support: 1.31807, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.32491, 1.33109
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3181 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.3150 round number in view
Recovery above the 1.3202 tue low and EMA(20) near 1.3211 would neutralise Thursday's breakdown; the 1.3249 lower high is the structural pivot
Break of the lower highs trendline and 1.3249 opens a retest of the 1.3311 week high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% MoM) could materially shift this read
The week opened at 1.3233. Wednesday's UK GDP beat and soft US PCE lifted cable to a 1.3311 week high, but the push above Monday's 1.3280 top faded into a false break. Thursday's slide came in two legs, London then NY after firm claims and ISM prices paid, cutting through the 1.3202 tue low to a 1.3181 week low. Price now sits below the ema20 near 1.3218 with RSI(14) in the mid-30s, and late NY has flattened into a narrow base just under 1.3200, beneath the lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3218, 1.3233
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with DXY near 102 the dominant driver
H1 close back above the 1.3202 tue low would turn Thursday's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3181 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward multi-month lows
Recovery through the weekly open at 1.3233 brings the fib 50% near 1.3246 and the lower highs trendline into play
Mon–Wed 1.3202–1.3311 range broken lower; lower high Wed, lower low Thu.
Wednesday's GDP-led London rally to 1.3311 faded through NY. Thursday's London open broke the range, and firm US claims plus a hot ISM prices-paid print pushed the NY leg through the 1.3202 tuesday low to a week low of 1.3181. The London bounce high at 1.3249 stalled below the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Thu drop, and price is holding under the 1.3233 weekly open and both EMAs. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s and late-session bars have compressed just above the low.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3233, 1.3249
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.3202 tuesday low would mark the Thursday break as a false break and return price to the old range
A break of the 1.3181 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3150 round number
Recovery through the 1.3233 weekly open and the 1.3249 bounce high would break the lower-high trendline structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) plus AHE and unemployment could materially shift this read in either direction
Lower highs from 1.3311 week high; week low under test.
Wednesday's London rally on the UK GDP beat poked to a 1.3311 week high but fully reversed. Thursday's London selloff then broke the 1.3202 Tuesday low, and firm US claims plus a jump in ISM prices paid extended the slide to a 1.3181 week low during NY hours. Price sits below the EMA(20) near 1.3219 and the weekly open at 1.3233, with lower highs along a falling trendline from the week high. RSI(14) at 37 is holding above its morning trough despite the lower low, which reads as fading momentum rather than a turn.
Support: 1.3181, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3219, 1.3233
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3181 week low extends the range break toward the 1.3150 round number
H1 close back above the 1.3202 Tuesday low and the ema20 near 1.3219 would ease the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.3233, near the 38.2% fib of the week high-low move, would challenge the falling trendline
Fed speakers tonight and US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.3311 high; week range floor at 1.3200 broken.
Cable reversed Wednesday's GDP-driven London spike to 1.3311 and has printed a sequence of lower highs since. Thursday's firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid extended the slide through the 1.3200 broken floor (Tuesday's low) to a fresh week low at 1.3182 during the NY session, after the London-hours bounce off 1.3193 stalled at the 1.3249 lower high. Price sits below ema20 at 1.3222 and EMA(50) near 1.3238, with RSI(14) at about 30 in oversold territory and ATR(14) near 19 pips.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3222, 1.3249
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.3200 broken floor would mark the move as a false break of the week range
Price would need to reclaim ema20 at 1.3222 and the 1.3249 lower high to break the lower-highs trendline sequence
The 38.2% retracement of the Wed high–Thu low swing sits at 1.3231, close to ema20 and the 1.3233 weekly open
Acceptance below the 1.3182 week low exposes the 1.3150 round number
Fed speakers Bowman, Williams and Cook tonight, then US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K), could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum extended into NY · RSI 32 · price 1.31854
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak; week range low broken.
Wednesday's London-NY push to the 1.3311 week high, on the UK GDP beat and soft core PCE, was fully unwound. Thursday's London open spike to 1.3266 was rejected, and the NY session broke the Tuesday low at 1.3202, printing a fresh week low at 1.3182 as firm claims, ISM prices paid and 24-year-high long-end yields lifted USD. Price sits below both H1 EMAs with RSI(14) near 32, stretched but not yet oversold, and each bounce today has stalled at a lower high.
Support: 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3249, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the tue low at 1.3202 would mark the range break as a false break
A reclaim of the 1.3249 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline from the week high
Acceptance below the 1.3182 week low extends the downtrend into fresh multi-month territory
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) today could extend or trim the USD bid
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 spike; weekly range floor broken.
Wednesday's spike to 1.3311 on the UK GDP beat and soft PCE was fully unwound, and price is now making lower highs below a falling trendline. The London open drop on Thursday printed a 1.3193 london low. A NY session leg on firm claims, hot ISM prices paid and 24-year-high long yields then broke Tuesday's low near 1.3202 and set a 1.3182 week low. Price now sits below EMA20, which is converging with the 1.3233 weekly open, and RSI(14) is near 33. That leaves the bulk of the Wednesday-to-Thursday sell-off fib unretraced.
Support: 1.31927, 1.31822
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3233, 1.32491
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3202 tuesday low would turn the range break into a false break
Recovery above the 1.3233 weekly open and EMA20 shifts focus to the 1.3249 lower high and the 38.2–50% fib zone
Failure to hold the 1.3182 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed speakers later today and US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the lower highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs since Wednesday
Lower high at 1.3311, lower low at 1.3193, rebound capped.
Cable's push above 1.3300 into Wednesday's NY open, on the Q2 GDP upgrade and soft core PCE, proved a false break from the 1.3202–1.3300 range. The 1.3311 week high gave way to a lower high, and Thursday's London open drove a roughly 70-pip slide to a 1.3193 week low as 24-year-high US yields and $100 Brent bid the dollar. The late-London rebound stalled at the 1.3249 rebound high, near the 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. NY hours have pushed price back toward the Tuesday low, below EMA(20) (~1.3237) and the 1.3233 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3249, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3193 week low confirms a lower-low below the Tuesday low area
Recovery above the weekly open and the 1.3249 rebound high puts the 50% retracement and the lower-highs line back in play
Only a move back through the 1.3311 week high negates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC today) could shift yields and this read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the main event risk for the 1.3193–1.3202 support zone
1.3193–1.3311 weekly range; lower highs from 1.3311, range low swept and partly reclaimed.
The week opened at 1.3233 and has rotated inside a 1.3193–1.3311 range. Wednesday's London push to the 1.3311 week high on the UK GDP upgrade and soft US PCE was rejected, and Thursday's London session unwound it to a fresh 3-month low at 1.3193 as long-end US yields and Brent above $100 lifted USD. The dip briefly took out Tuesday's low at 1.3202. The rebound stalled at 1.3249, a rebound high just under the 50% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday drop. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3242 and back under the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 41 and the lower-highs line from Wednesday's peak intact.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3249, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3249 rebound high and 50% fib reclaims the weekly open and puts the lower-highs line near 1.3257 in play
Failure to hold 1.3202 Tuesday low exposes the 3-month low at 1.3193; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC today) could shift USD tone into the close
Friday NFP (12:30 UTC, f/c 90K) is the main risk to the 1.3193–1.3311 range read; an upside surprise tests the week high's rejection as a ceiling
Week range 1.3193–1.3311; Thursday flush below Tuesday low reclaimed, rebound capped at 50% fib.
Wednesday's GDP-beat rally peaked at the 1.3311 week high around the soft PCE print, then faded. At Thursday's London open a USD bid, driven by 24-year-high US yields and Brent above $100, broke the 1.3202 tue low and printed a 1.3193 week low before the close back above it. The rebound stalled at 1.3249, just shy of the 50% fib of the Wed–Thu drop, and price is back under the weekly open (1.3233) and EMA(20) (~1.3242), with RSI(14) near 43 and the lower highs line from Wednesday intact.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3242, 1.3311
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NFP on Friday follows
H1 close below the 1.3193 week low turns the false break below the tue low into a fresh 3-month low
Reclaim of the weekly open and ema20 with an H1 close above 1.3249 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the path toward the 1.3311 week high
Repeated rejection under the 50% fib keeps the lower-highs sequence in place
13:02 UTC
Down from Wednesday's high, sharp intraday rebound · RSI 44 · price 1.32414
Lower high 1.3273 and lower low 1.3193; rebound stalling at the EMA cluster.
Wednesday's GDP- and soft-PCE-led rally to the 1.3311 week high was fully unwound from London open today, as the final UK PMI miss and 24-year-high US long-end yields drove a near 120-pip slide to a 1.3193 week low, just under the 1.3202 tue low. Buyers stepped in on the sweep below 1.3200 and lifted price back above the 1.3233 weekly open, but the rebound is stalling at the ema20/50 cluster near 1.3249, close to the 38.2% level of the Wed–Thu fib. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s from near 30 at the low, and the lower highs from 1.3311 to the 1.3273 thu high still define the week's structure.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3202, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3273, 1.3311
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Friday's NFP is the next major risk
H1 close above the ema20/50 near 1.3249 brings the 1.3273 thu high and the lower-highs trendline into play
Failure to hold the 1.3233 weekly open exposes the 1.3202 tue low and the 1.3193 week low
Acceptance below the 1.3193 week low turns the sweep into a confirmed lower-low extension
12:01 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's high, bounce off lows · RSI 38 · price 1.32232
Lower highs from 1.3311; false break below Tue low.
Cable gave back Wednesday's GDP- and soft-PCE-driven pop to the 1.3311 week high, then broke through the 1.3202 Tue low in today's London session to print a 1.3193 three-month week low. Surging US long-end yields and $100 Brent kept the dollar bid. The 10:00 UTC bar rejected that low and closed back above the Tue low, leaving price just under the 1.3233 week open and below EMA(20) near 1.3245. RSI(14) has recovered to about 38, and hourly ranges have widened to about 16 pips.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3245, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3233 week open and EMA(20) at 1.3245 would extend the rebound into the 61.8% retracement of the Wed-Thu drop at 1.3266, where the lower-highs line also sits
Acceptance below the 1.3193 week low turns the Tue low false break into a lower-low continuation
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 1.3311 week high requires breaking the lower-highs sequence first
Break below 1.3202–1.3311 week range; lower highs since Wednesday.
The week ranged between Tuesday's NY-session low at 1.3202 and Wednesday's GDP-driven London spike to 1.3311. That move above 1.3300 faded into NY hours as a false break. From the London open today, soft UK Manufacturing PMI and Nationwide data plus a firm USD drove a ~65-pip slide off the 1.3273 day high to a 1.3198 session low. The drop took out the tuesday low and the 1.3200 YTD-low area, leaving price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 27, in oversold territory, and lower highs intact since Wednesday's peak.
Support: 1.3198, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3202, 1.3233, 1.3273
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above 1.3202, the tuesday low, would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.3198 session low leaves the 1.3150 round number as the next reference
A recovery through the 1.3233 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.3273 day high back in view
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend since Wednesday's 1.3311 high · RSI 32 · price 1.32099
Lower highs from 1.3311, price pressing the week low at 1.3202.
Wednesday's push through 1.3300 on soft US PCE and the UK GDP upgrade became a false break. The week high at 1.3311 gave way to lower highs as USD demand returned on firm yields and oil, and price has now retraced about 90% of the 1.3202–1.3311 rally on the rally fib. The London open drive from 1.3266 cut through the weekly open at 1.3233 and EMA(20) near 1.3249 to a day low at 1.3209, helped by soft UK PMI and Nationwide data. That leaves cable a few pips above the week low at 1.3202, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3249, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 week low and the 1.3200 two-month low confirms a lower low and a break of the week's range
Day low at 1.3209 holding, then a recovery back above the weekly open at 1.3233, would mark the London open drive as exhausted
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3249 would break the lower highs sequence from the 1.3311 week high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RSI(14) near 31 is close to oversold; a new low without a fresh RSI low would point to fading downside momentum
09:01 UTC
Range-bound, sliding from week high · RSI 38 · price 1.32364
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak inside a 1.3202–1.3311 week range.
Wednesday's London-to-NY rally off Tuesday's 1.3202 week low pushed through 1.3300 to a 1.3311 week high on the UK GDP beat and soft US PCE. That break failed as USD demand resumed on elevated yields, and each bounce since has printed a lower high. Today's London open saw a rejection at the 1.3266 spike high and a slide to a 1.3225 london low, near the 78.6% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally, after soft Nationwide house prices. Price now sits below the ema20 near 1.3254 with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3254, 1.3266, 1.3311
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3225 london low exposes the 1.3202 week low; an H1 close below it marks a range break lower
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3254 and the 1.3266 spike high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the 1.3311 week high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3245 after rejection above 1.3300; compressing 1.3245–1.3273.
Cable ran from 1.3223 to the 1.3311 week high through London and into the NY open on Wednesday, helped by the upgraded UK Q2 GDP and the soft US PCE miss. The push above 1.3300 was rejected and NY hours gave back more than half the move as US yields firmed. Price has since compressed between the 1.3245 asia low and the 1.3273 asia high, around the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's impulse. The 1.3245 low is holding as a higher low above the weekly open (1.3233) and Tuesday's 1.3202 week low. RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned to EMA(20) at 1.3259 reflect stalled momentum.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3245 asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the weekly open at 1.3233, then the 1.3202 week low
H1 close above the 1.3273 asia high reopens the 1.3280 monday high and the 1.3311 week high
BoE's Mann (12:00 UTC), US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 1.3311 false break, inside the 1.3202–1.3311 week range.
Tuesday's NY session set the 1.3202 week low. Wednesday's London-led rally on the UK GDP beat and soft US PCE then spiked to the 1.3311 week high, before failing back below 1.3300 in NY hours as the USD bid resumed. Since then price has printed lower highs below the Asia high at 1.3272 and slipped under the EMA(20) at 1.3258 and the EMA(50). It now sits at 1.3249, on the 61.8% retracement of the week's leg and just above the thursday low at 1.3245, with RSI(14) back to the high 40s after Wednesday's push higher.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3258, 1.3272, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3245 thursday low and the 61.8% retracement exposes the 1.3222 swing low, then the 1.3202 week low
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3258 and the 1.3272 Asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence from 1.3311
Renewed acceptance above the 1.3311 week high would negate the false break read
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Range-bound, fading off the week high · RSI 49 · price 1.32503
Lower highs from 1.3311 inside the 1.3202–1.3311 weekly range.
Since the 1.3233 weekly open, NY selling on Tuesday took price to the 1.3202 week low. Wednesday's London-to-NY rally on the UK GDP upgrade and soft US PCE then spiked to 1.3311, but no hourly close held above the 1.3300 psych level. Hourly highs have stepped lower since that peak, and Asia has slipped back below EMA(20) at 1.3259 to test the 1.3250 Asia low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday leg, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3244 61.8% retracement and the 1.3233 weekly open would return the pair to the lower half of the week range toward the 1.3202 week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.3259, followed by a close above the 1.3280 Monday high, would break the lower-highs sequence and put the 1.3300 psych level back in play
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC: a less urgent tone carries more downside repricing risk, given the crowded Nov hike pricing
US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
1.3202–1.3311 week range; lower high after failed hold above 1.3300.
Wednesday's London-session rally on the UK GDP beat, extended by the soft US PCE print into the first hour of NY, lifted price from Tuesday's 1.3202 week low to a 1.3311 week high. NY hours then gave back more than half the move, and the pair is now compressing in a 1.3250–1.3272 range between the Asian low and Asian high. That range sits just under EMA(20) near 1.3261 and above EMA(50) near 1.3240, on the fib 50% of the Tuesday–Wednesday leg, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and supply capping the Monday high at 1.3280 along a lower-high line from Wednesday's peak.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3240, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3250 asian low and the fib 61.8% near 1.3244 exposes the 1.3202 week low
H1 close above the 1.3280 monday high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 1.3311 week high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
1.3255–1.3273 range below EMA20 after failed push above 1.3300; lower highs.
Wednesday's UK GDP beat lifted GBPUSD off 1.3223 through London. The soft US PCE print then briefly extended the move to a 1.3311 week high before USD demand returned during NY hours and erased more than half of Wednesday's impulse. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3255–1.3273 range below EMA20 (1.3261), with lower highs from the week high, and the Asia session is probing the range floor at 1.3253, close to the 61.8% retracement (1.3256), with RSI(14) back near 49.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3273, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3253 range floor and 61.8% retracement exposes the 1.3233 weekly open
Reclaiming EMA20 at 1.3261 and the 1.3273 range top would put the lower highs trendline under test
Only a close back above 1.3300 toward the 1.3311 week high revives Wednesday's breakout read
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC; a cautious tone risks a slide toward the 1.3202 week low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the range
Post-spike consolidation in a 1.3256–1.3272 range under a lower-high line.
GBP/USD swung from Tuesday's NY-session week low at 1.3202 to a 1.3311 week high on Wednesday, as the UK GDP beat and the soft US PCE print hit through London and early NY. The push above 1.3300 failed, and the NY afternoon handed back to the range low at 1.3256, near the 50% of the Tue-Wed swing, as USD demand returned on firm US yields. Since then, price has compressed between 1.3256 and the 1.3272 range top under a lower-high line. It sits just below EMA(20) near 1.3262 and above EMA(50) near 1.3254, with RSI(14) at a neutral 54 and the higher-low line from Tuesday converging from below.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3272 range top and the lower-high line brings the 1.3280 monday high and the 1.3300 round number back into view, with the 1.3311 week high beyond.
Failure to hold the 1.3256 range low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3233 weekly open and then the 1.3202 week low.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC adds GBP-side event risk.
Tuesday 1.3202 low, Wednesday rally rejected at 1.3311; tight range at the 50% fib.
GBPUSD recovered from Tuesday's 1.3202 week low, printed in NY hours. Wednesday's London-session leg on the UK GDP beat, extended by the soft US PCE print, reached a 1.3311 week high before NY hours faded it back below the 1.3300 round number. The pullback stalled at the 50% fib of the 1.3202–1.3311 move near 1.3255, and the Asian range has since compressed beneath the 1.3272 asia high, with price just above a flattening EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32436, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.32718, 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3272 asia high reopens the 1.3300 round number and 1.3311 week high
Break below the 50% fib at 1.3255 exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.3244, aligned with last week's close
Loss of the 61.8% fib shifts focus back toward the 1.3202 week low
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Recovery from week low, stalling under 1.3300 · RSI 55 · price 1.32621
Higher low off 1.3202, false break of 1.3300, 50% pullback now compressing above EMA50.
After Monday's 1.3280 high, the pair slid through Tuesday's NY session to the 1.3202 week low. Wednesday's UK GDP beat and the soft US PCE print then lifted it from 1.3223 to the 1.3311 week high. The push through the 1.3300 round number did not hold: the pair gave back half the 1.3202–1.3311 swing to a 1.3255 swing low at the 50% fib. Since then it has compressed into a 15-pip range sitting on EMA(20) near 1.3262, with EMA(50) at 1.3253 and RSI(14) back near 55.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3280 monday high reopens the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3311 week high
Close below the 1.3255 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.3233 week open
Failure at the 1.3233 week open puts the 1.3202 week low back in focus
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, then US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 1.3202 low, false break above 1.3300, basing at 50% retrace.
Tuesday's NY-session slide to the 1.3202 2-month low reversed sharply on Wednesday. Upbeat UK GDP revisions lifted GBP through the London session, and soft US PCE briefly carried the pair to a 1.3311 week high. That push above 1.3300 psych proved a false break: more than half the rally has been given back, and price is now flat around EMA(20) near 1.3262, with the fib 50% at 1.3255 holding the NY and Asia lows and RSI(14) cooled to ~53.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3233, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3280 monday high reopens 1.3300 psych and the 1.3311 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3255 fib 50% exposes the 1.3233 weekly open, then the 1.3202 2-month low
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Continued compression around EMA(20) with ATR near 13 pips keeps the consolidation read intact