Lower highs from 1.3249, session low at 1.3181, tight 1.3181–1.3201 range since 18:00 UTC.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3245, and the slide extended through NY as firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted USD. That printed a session low at 1.3181 beneath a chain of lower highs (1.3249, then the 1.3235 lower high). Since 18:00 UTC price has compressed between the session low and a 1.3201 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR down to about 7 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3187 late low and the 1.3181 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3201 range top and the 1.3209 bounce high breaks the consolidation; the lower-highs line near 1.3235 sits above
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next catalyst and could materially shift this read
Further UK gilt stress (30y above 6%) is weighing on GBP independent of US data
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 51 · price 1.31973
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight 1.3187–1.3201 box above day low.
Cable broke down from the Asian range during London. Firm US claims and ISM prices paid extended the slide in NY to a 1.3181 day low, beneath a lower-high trendline off the 1.3249 london high. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.3187 late low and the 1.3200 round number, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR down to roughly 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.31873, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32012, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 round number opens the 38.2% fib near 1.3207 and the lower-high trendline
Break of the 1.3187 late low exposes the 1.3181 day low; a close below extends the lower-low chain
Sustained recovery toward the 1.3249 london high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the day low · RSI 54 · price 1.31973
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight 1.3187–1.3201 band in early Asia.
London broke the prior Asian range low near 1.3245. NY extended the slide to a 1.3181 day low after firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid, and the lower-high chain at 1.3249, 1.3236 and 1.3209 keeps the descending trendline intact. Price is now compressing between the 1.3187 asia low and the 1.3201 psych level, sitting on the 23.6% fib of the 1.3249–1.3181 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR down to roughly 6–7 pips.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3201 psych exposes the 1.3209 lower high and 38.2% fib near 1.3207
Close above the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3187 asia low reopens the 1.3181 day low; acceptance below it extends the lower-low chain
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, now pausing in late-session compression · RSI 51 · price 1.31955
Lower highs from 1.3249, tight 1.3181–1.3209 band with rising lows.
London open broke below the Asian range low at 1.3245. Firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid then extended the selloff from the 1.3249 pre-NY high to a 1.3181 session low during NY hours. Since then cable has compressed below the 1.3209 swing high, with the range top at 1.3201 capping, rising lows near 1.3187 and price holding near the 23.6% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR has shrunk to roughly 5–6 pips.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 range top and 1.3209 swing high opens the 38.2–50% retrace zone at 1.3207–1.3215
Break of the rising lows at 1.3187 and the 1.3181 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst; a print far from the 90K forecast could break this compression
Pre-NY high at 1.3249 marks the top of the selloff; reclaiming it would void the lower-high read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled after NY close · RSI 47 · price 1.31941
Lower highs from Asian high; 20-pip post-NY box above day low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3245, and NY extended the slide to a 1.3181 day low after firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print lifted the dollar. Since the NY close, price has compressed between the day low and the 1.3201 range top, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the 1.3273–1.3181 drop. The rollover low at 1.3187 held, RSI(14) is flat near 47 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3216
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3201 range top / 23.6% fib exposes the 1.3209 lower high, then the 38.2% fib at 1.3216
Loss of the 1.3187 rollover low puts the day low back in play during Asia session
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is the next catalyst that could break the post-NY box
Lower highs from 1.3249, compressing above 1.3181 session low.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.3245. NY extended the slide after firm US claims and a jump in ISM prices paid, printing a 1.3181 session low near the three-month low. Since then price has compressed in a ~20-pip band under the 1.3200 round number, holding a 1.3187 late low in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.31873, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32086, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 session low confirms a fresh lower low beneath the three-month low
Close above the 1.3209 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the compression and opens the path to the 1.3249 rebound high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; post-NY compression in a tight 1.3187–1.3201 range.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.3245. The NY session extended the slide to the 1.3181 NY low, a fresh three-month low, as firm US claims and ISM prices paid lifted the dollar. Since late NY, price has compressed between the 1.3187 range low and the 1.3201 range top, capped at the 23.6% retracement of the London-NY drop. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is about 8 pips in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 NY low confirms a lower-low and fresh multi-month lows
Close above the 1.3201 range top and the 1.3209 lower high opens the 38.2% retracement near 1.3213
Loss of the 1.3187 range low puts the NY low straight back in play
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 UTC Fri (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 54 · price 1.3196
Lower highs from London open, tight range above NY low.
Cable printed a lower-high chain from the 1.3266 London-open high to a 1.3181 NY low after firm US claims and ISM prices paid lifted the dollar. Late-NY trade has compressed into a 1.3181–1.3201 range below the lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR shrinking into the Asia session.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3236
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 range top and 1.3209 swing high breaks the lower-high line and tags the 38.2% fib near 1.3207
Recovery through the 1.3236 NY am high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure at the 1.3187 late low, then the 1.3181 NY low (three-month low), resumes the downtrend
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight post-NY range 1.3181–1.3209 under a falling-highs line.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245 and sold off. Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid read then pushed GBPUSD under the 1.3249 bounce high and on to a 1.3181 3-month low in NY. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3181–1.3209 range, with a higher low at 1.3187 and the 1.3201 round number capping into the Asia session.
Support: 1.3187, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 range high breaks the post-NY range and tests the falling-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3187 higher low exposes the 1.3181 3-month low again
Break of the 1.3181 3-month low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; tight late-NY base 1.3181–1.3201.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245. The USD bid from firm claims and the hot ISM prices paid then carried GBP/USD to a 1.3181 3-month low in NY. Since 18:00 UTC it has based in a 20-pip box, capped at the 1.3201 round number, which sits at the 23.6% of the London high-to-low fib leg.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 swing high breaks the late-NY base and puts the 38.2% fib (1.3207) and the 1.3249 london high in view
Failure to hold the 1.3181 3-month low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next driver; thin liquidity after the NY close into the Asia session
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight 1.3181–1.3201 range since 18:00 UTC.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245. NY extended the slide after firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print, printing a session low at 1.3181 around 18:00 UTC, below a lower high at 1.3235. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3181–1.3201 range, building a higher low at 1.3186, with the range top and the 23.6% fib of the 1.3249–1.3181 drop capping it into the late NY session.
Support: 1.3186, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 swing high (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 1.3235
Failure to hold the 1.3186 higher low exposes the 1.3181 session low; a break extends the downtrend
Thin Asia session likely keeps price inside the range top / session low band
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3249, flat base at 1.3181, capped at 1.3200.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3245. Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print during NY hours then extended the slide to a 1.3181 session low, tested three times. Late NY is compressing between that base and the 1.3200 psych level, holding just above the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price sitting at the 23.6% retrace of the 1.3249 bounce high move.
Support: 1.3192, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3181 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.3192 returns price to the base of the range
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; thin rollover liquidity until then
Lower highs from London; higher lows off day low into 1.3200.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3250. Firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print extended the slide in NY to a 1.3181 day low. Late NY has printed a higher low chain along a rising trendline back to the 1.3200 round number, with supply capping at the 1.3209 late ny high.
Support: 1.3194, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3209 late ny high clears the 1.3200 round number and brings the 38.2% fib and 1.3235 ny high into view
Break of the 1.3194 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 1.3181 day low back in play; a close below it resumes the downtrend
Thin post-NY / Asia liquidity likely keeps ranges near ATR of ~10 pips
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight higher-low base above 1.3181, capped at 1.3200.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245. A midday rebound to 1.3249 faded, and firm jobless claims plus hot ISM prices paid extended the slide to a 1.3181 session low during NY hours. Late NY has printed small higher lows along a rising line, but the 1.3200 round number has capped every push.
Support: 1.31937, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32005, 1.32086, 1.32149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3209 swing high would open the fib 50% retracement at 1.3215
Break of the rising line and the 1.3194 higher low puts the 1.3181 session low back in play
Failure to hold 1.3181 confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.31967
Lower highs from London; late-NY range 1.3181–1.3209 with a higher low.
The London open selloff from 1.3266 cut through the Asian range low, and NY extended it to a 1.3181 day low as hot ISM prices paid lifted US yields. Late NY has tested 1.3181–1.3183 three times without a break. Price is now pressing the 1.3200 round number off a higher low at 1.3186, still below the 1.3209 swing high and the 38.2% selloff fib near 1.3213.
Support: 1.3186, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 swing high breaks the late-NY range and brings the 1.3235 ny high into view
Failure at the 1.3186 higher low, then a break of the 1.3181 day low, resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 49 · price 1.31983
Lower highs from London high; higher lows off day low.
London open broke the 1.3245 Asian range low, and the ISM prices-paid jump pushed the NY leg to a 1.3181 day low as US yields firmed. After London close, price has carved higher lows into the 1.3200 psych level, which sits at the 23.6% retrace of the london high to day low drop.
Support: 1.3186, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 swing high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 1.3249 london high in view
Rejection at 1.3200 psych keeps price in the late-NY base below the level
A break of the 1.3186 higher low and the late-NY higher lows line reopens the 1.3181 day low
Fed's Bowman, Williams and Cook speaking now, and NFP Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3249; higher lows off 1.3181 pressing 1.3200.
London open broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 1.3181 session low after firm jobless claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print lifted the dollar. Late NY has printed a higher low at 1.3191 and is pressing the 1.3200 round number and the falling trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.3191, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3215
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 50% at 1.3215
Rejection at the 1.3200 round number and loss of the 1.3191 higher low returns focus to the 1.3181 session low
Break of the 1.3181 session low resumes the downtrend into fresh multi-month lows
Fed speakers Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and Friday NFP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3249, triple test of 1.3181 holding.
London broke the 1.3245 Asian range low at the open. NY extended the slide to a 1.3181 session low after firm jobless claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted the dollar. Late NY is basing in a tight 1.3181–1.3209 band, with the session low tested three times and the descending trendline from the 1.3249 swing high capping just above 1.3196, near the 1.3200 psych level.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.3209 bounce high (fib 38.2%) breaks the lower-high chain; 1.3200 psych sits in between
Retracement beyond fib 61.8% at 1.3223 puts the 1.3249 swing high back in view
Fed's Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC could shift this read; US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.31901
Lower highs from 1.3249, tight box above day low.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245, and selling extended through NY hours on firm US claims and ISM prices paid. A descending trendline off the 1.3249 swing high has capped each bounce. Late NY is now holding a ~28-pip box just above the 1.3181 day low, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3200 psych and the 1.3209 lower high would break the descending trendline read
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could jolt the late-NY box
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst for cable
18:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.31947
Lower highs since London open; tight 1.3181–1.3209 base above session low.
Cable broke below the 1.3245–1.3272 Asian range at London open and has printed lower highs since, with the 1.3249 lower high capping the midday bounce. The hot ISM prices-paid print and firm claims drove the NY leg to a 1.3181 session low. Price has since compressed into a 1.3181–1.3209 base just under the 1.3200 round number, RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 range top, which aligns with the 38.2% fib and the lower-highs trendline, breaks the base
Failure to hold the 1.3181 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3249 lower high negates the intraday downtrend read
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could shift USD pricing within the next few bars
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next high-impact catalyst
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 34 · price 1.31851
Lower highs since London open; tight base above session low.
Cable broke below the Asian range (1.3245–1.3273) at London open and has printed lower highs all day. Firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid extended the slide to a 1.3181 session low, and late NY is compressing above that low beneath a falling trendline and the 1.3209 lower high, RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.31807
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32086, 1.32355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close back above 1.3200 psych and the 1.3209 lower high breaks the falling trendline
Recovery through the 1.3236 ny high and the 38.2% fib (~1.3213) of the day's leg would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Fed Bowman 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight base 1.3181–1.3209 since 15:30 UTC.
London open broke below the Asian range low at 1.3245, and the selling ran through NY on firm US jobless claims and hot ISM prices paid. Lower highs from the 1.3249 swing high keep the trendline capping. Late NY is compressing just above the 1.3181 session low, with the 1.3209 lower high (fib 38.2%) holding and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32086, 1.32149, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.3209 lower high and the trendline opens the fib 50% at 1.3215
Reclaim of the 1.3249 swing high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the late-NY compression
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk
LH/LL chain since London open; price pinned at session low after NY rejection.
London open broke below the 1.3245–1.3272 Asian range. NY extended the slide on firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid, and the 1.3182 session low has now held on three tests since 15:45 UTC. Lower highs at the 1.3249 swing high, 1.3236 and the 1.3208 lower high (near the 38.2% fib) keep the descending trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 29 late in NY hours.
Support: 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3208, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3182 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3208 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the LH chain; the 1.3249 swing high is the next reference above
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read after London close
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
The Asian range (1.3245–1.3273) gave way at London open. NY extended the slide to a 1.3182 session low on firm US claims and a jump in ISM prices paid. Late in NY, after London close, the bounce was rejected at 1.3209, where the 38.2% fib meets the descending trendline, and price is back under the 1.3200 psych, sitting on the London low at 1.3193.
Support: 1.31927, 1.31817
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32086, 1.32355
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3209 reject high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.3236 lower high is next above.
Failure to hold the 1.3182 session low extends the lower-low chain.
Fed's Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could shift this read; US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk.
Lower highs from 1.3249 London high; triple test of 1.3182 low, late-NY rebound back above 1.3200.
NY session extended the London sell-off to a 1.3182 session low after firm claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted the dollar. The lows held on three tests, and the latest bar reclaimed the 1.3200 psych level and the 1.3206 neckline of a small double bottom. Price sits at the 38.2% fib of the London high-to-session-low drop, with the descending trendline and the 1.3216 lower high overhead.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3216, 1.3235, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3216 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.3235 ny high
Slip back below the 1.3206 neckline and 1.3200 psych returns focus to the 1.3182 session low
A break of the 1.3182 session low resumes the downtrend; the 1.3249 london high caps the broader intraday decline
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift USD into the close
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major risk event for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; price on day low.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.3245, and NY extended the slide after firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid. The descending lower-highs line from the 1.3235 ny high and the 1.3232 high has held twice since, at the 1.3206 lower high and at 17:00 UTC. Late-NY price is sitting on the 1.3182 day low below the 1.3193 london low, with RSI(14) near 29: stretched, not extreme.
Support: 1.31822, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.31927, 1.32064, 1.32355
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3206 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 1.3235 ny high back in focus
Hold back above the 1.3193 london low would mark the 1.3182 day low as a rejection
Failure to hold the 1.3182 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3150 round number
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC, then US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence from 1.3249, retesting 1.3182 session low late NY.
London broke below the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range and NY extended the slide to a 1.3182 session low, a three-month low, as firm claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted USD. The 16:15 UTC bounce stalled at the 1.3206 lower high, near the 38.2% of the 1.3249–1.3182 NY leg, and price is back retesting the low with RSI(14) near 31, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.31822
Resistance: 1.31927, 1.32064, 1.32373
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3182 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 1.3193 london low, then the 1.3206 lower high, breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
Move back above the 1.3237 ny high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 1.31883
Lower-high/lower-low chain below Asian range.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.32448 at the open, and the slide resumed in NY as firm claims and a jump in ISM prices paid lifted USD. That took price to a session low of 1.31822. Lower highs at 1.32324 and 1.32064 define a descending trendline, and price sits just under the london low at 1.31927 and the 1.3200 psych level, RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.31822, 1.3180
Resistance: 1.31927, 1.3200, 1.32064
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.32064 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.31822 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3180 round number
Reclaim of the 1.31927 london low and 1.3200 psych would put the fib 38.2% of the NY leg at 1.32078 in play
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) speak in the next 3h; NFP tomorrow 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing off the low · RSI 35 · price 1.31999
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; basing just under 1.3200.
The London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3245 and set a chain of lower highs from the 1.3249 swing high. NY then extended to a fresh session low at 1.3182 after firm jobless claims and the hot ISM prices-paid print lifted USD. Price is basing just under 1.3200 after London close, with the 1.3193 London low back overhead-tested, RSI(14) near 35 and ATR around 14 pips.
Support: 1.31927, 1.31822
Resistance: 1.32242, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3235 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high chain.
Reclaiming the fib 50% of the London open–NY low leg at 1.3224 shifts the read toward a deeper retracement toward the 1.3249 swing high.
Losing the London low at 1.3193, then the 1.3182 session low, extends the lower-low sequence.
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman and Williams/Cook later this session, and NFP tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Asian range broken lower in London; NY extended below the London low to fresh session lows.
Cable broke below the Asian range (1.3245–1.3273) through London. NY then pushed through the 1.3193 london low to a 1.3182 session low as ISM prices paid and 24-year-high US yields lifted USD. The lower-high trendline from the 1.3249 swing high and the 1.3235 ny high defines the sequence; RSI(14) is near 29 and price trades below both EMAs.
Support: 1.31822
Resistance: 1.31927, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
A return above the 1.3193 london low would turn the NY break into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.3235 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3182 session low extends the lower-low chain
50% fib of the 1.3249–1.3182 drop sits near 1.3216, the first retracement marker if price rebounds
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift USD before the close
NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next high-impact USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; new session low just printed.
Cable has been offered since London open. It dropped through the Asian range low near 1.3245 to a London low at 1.3193. In NY hours the ISM prices-paid beat extended the slide to a fresh NY low at 1.3182. Lower highs off 1.3249 define a descending trendline, and RSI(14) sits near 29 as the London close passes.
Support: 1.31822
Resistance: 1.31927, 1.3200, 1.32157
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3193 london low would turn the break into a false break
Recovery through 1.3200 psych and the 1.3216 fib 50% would challenge the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3182 ny low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman and Williams/Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 1.31977
Lower highs from 1.3249; session low swept at 1.3186, close back near 1.3200.
Cable broke below the Asian range low near 1.3245 at London open and has printed lower highs through NY, from 1.3249 to the 1.3235 ISM high, as the dollar extended on 24-year-high yields and the hot ISM prices paid print. The latest leg swept the london low at 1.3193 to a 1.3186 session low, then closed back near the 1.3200 psych level. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.31927, 1.31857
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32155, 1.32355
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3186 session low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the three-month low zone.
Reclaim of 1.3200 psych and the 1.3216 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the 1.3249–1.3186 leg, breaks the lower-highs chain.
Failure to hold the 1.3193 london low after the sweep keeps the downtrend read intact.
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift USD and yields into the NY close.
London open broke the Asian range low at 1.3245, and the London leg ran to a session low at 1.3193 as USD tracked 24-year-high yields, $100 Brent and firm jobless claims. The rebound high at 1.3249 failed and a lower high followed at 1.3236. NY hours are now retesting the session low, with a 1.3198 retest low so far, RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3198, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3193 session low extends the lower-low sequence to fresh three-month lows
M15 close above the 1.3236 lower high breaks the descending-highs chain
Recapture of the 1.3249 rebound high would put the London leg in a full retracement
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook, could shift the USD read before Friday's NFP
Holding 1.3198 retest low on a second test would mark the session low as intraday support
Lower highs since 11:45 UTC rebound, retest of 1.3193 low.
London open broke below the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range and printed a 1.3193 three-month low as 24-year-high US yields and $100 Brent lifted USD. The rebound stalled at the 1.3249 swing high, around 77% of the London drop. NY has since carved lower highs at 1.3236 and 1.3232, and price is back at the 1.3198 ny low, with hawkish ISM prices paid keeping the dollar bid.
Support: 1.31981, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3193 3m low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
A second hold at the 1.3198 ny low would form a double-bottom attempt against the 1.3193 low
Recapture of ema20 near 1.3222 would be the first stall in the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 1.3236 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 1.3249 swing high caps above
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook into 19:30 UTC, could shift USD into Friday's NFP
15:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs into NY · RSI 39 · price 1.3211
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain under the 1.3249 rebound high.
London broke below the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range and ran to a 1.3193 session low, the three-month low, as US yields and oil kept USD bid. The rebound high at 1.3249 met rejection at the Asian range floor. NY hours have printed lower highs at 1.3236 and 1.3232 under a falling trendline, with price at 1.3211 just above the 1.3200 round number and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3193 session low extends the lower-low chain to a fresh three-month low
Close above the 1.3232 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the NY sequence; 50% of the London drop sits at 1.3230
Recovery through the 1.3249 rebound high puts price back inside the Asian range
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift USD tone into the London close and late NY
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after rebound · RSI 49 · price 1.32224
Lower highs above a flat 1.3216 NY low, narrowing NY range.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3245 and ran from 1.3266 to the 1.3193 3m low, driven by firm US yields and a soft UK PMI. The rebound stalled at the 1.3249 rebound high, about a 76.8% retrace of the London leg. NY session is now compressing between the 1.3216 ny low and a falling line of lower highs capped near the 1.3236 ny high.
Support: 1.3216, 1.3200, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3216 ny low exposes the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3193 3m low
M15 close above the 1.3236 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.3249 rebound high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the lower-highs line keeps the compression intact inside the London leg's retracement
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after London low · RSI 49 · price 1.3221
London broke the Asian range lower; NY coiling between higher lows and lower highs.
London broke below the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range and ran to a session low at 1.3193, a three-month low, as US yields and Brent lifted USD. The rebound stalled at 1.3249, near the old Asian low and above the 61.8% of the London leg fib. NY is now pinned at the 38.2% level, compressing between a 1.3216 higher low and a 1.3236 lower high after ISM prices paid printed hot.
Support: 1.3216, 1.3200, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3249, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3216 higher low exposes the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3193 session low
Close above the 1.3236 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3249 rebound high
Reclaim of 1.3249 puts price back toward the 1.3273 asian high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could break the compression
Lower highs off 1.3249, NY range compressing 1.3216–1.3236.
London broke the 1.3245–1.3272 Asian range lower. The drop ran to the 1.3193 3m low on the yields/oil USD bid. The rebound stalled at 1.3249, a lower high near the 76% retracement. NY has since compressed between the 1.3216 ny low and the 1.3236 ny high, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.3216, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3249, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3216 ny low exposes the 1.3193 3m low
Close above the 1.3236 ny high and the lower-highs line reopens 1.3249
Hold above 1.3249 lower high shifts focus to the 1.3272 asian high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
London sell-off to 1.3193, higher low at 1.3216, coiling below 1.3249.
London open broke below the Asian range (1.3245–1.3273) and ran to a 1.3193 session low as 24-year-high US yields and $100 Brent fed USD demand. The rebound stalled at the 1.3249 rebound high near the Asian base. Price is now coiling above a 1.3216 higher low, around the 50% of the London drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.3216, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3273
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55, Prices Paid f/c 72.3) and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3216 higher low exposes the 1.3193 session low (3-month low)
M15 close above the 1.3249 rebound high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.3273 asian high next
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) add NY-session risk
Post-selloff compression: higher lows vs a 1.3249 lower high.
The London drop broke below the Asian range near 1.3245 and ran from the 1.3266 london high to a 3m low at 1.3193, driven by a USD bid on 24-year-high US yields and Brent above $100. The rebound stalled at 1.3249, leaving a lower high. Since then price has been compressing on higher lows, with the 1.3216 session low intact into the ISM release.
Support: 1.3216, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3266
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bar
M15 close below the 1.3216 session low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 1.3193 3m low
Close above the 1.3249 lower high exposes the 1.3266 london high and the 61.8% of the London drop
London broke Asian range low; NY printing lower highs off 1.3249.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.3245 and ran to a 3m low at 1.3193 as US yields climbed. The rebound met rejection at 1.3249, the rebound high just above the broken Asian low, and NY hours have since printed lower highs at 1.3237 and below, with price now near 50% of the rebound fib and heading toward the 1.3211 swing low.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3237, 1.3249
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, 30 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3193 3m low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3237 lower high breaks the lower-highs line
Hold of the 1.3211 swing low (61.8% of the rebound fib) keeps the rebound structure intact
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, rebound fading · RSI 43 · price 1.3224
Lower highs below Asian range low after London selloff.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3245 and ran from the 1.3266 London high to a three-month session low at 1.3193, with record US long-end yields keeping USD bid. The bounce after the beat in US jobless claims was rejected at the old Asian low. Price is back under EMA20 near the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, printing lower highs. RSI(14) is around 43 and ATR about 11 pips.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3211 swing low reopens the 1.3193 session low
M15 close back above the 1.3245 Asian low breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 1.3266 London high negates the London selloff
London broke below the Asian range; rebound stalled at the old range floor, lower highs intact.
London broke the Asian range (1.3245–1.3273) lower from 1.3266 and reached a 1.3193 session low as record long-end US yields and $100 Brent lifted the USD. A higher low at 1.3211 fed a bounce to the 1.3249 rebound high, which was rejected at the old range floor and the lower highs line. Price is now drifting back toward the 1.3227 micro low into the London-NY transition, with little reaction to the US claims beat and RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3227 micro low exposes the 1.3211 higher low and the 1.3193 session low
M15 close above the 1.3249 rebound high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the Asian range toward the 1.3273 asian high
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, about 1h out, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; higher low at 1.3211, bounce rejected at Asian low.
London broke the 1.3245 asian low and fell to a 1.3193 session low, also a three-month low, as 24-year-high US long-end yields and Brent above $100 lifted USD. The rebound printed a higher low at 1.3211 but was rejected on the retest of the asian low, and price is now holding around the fib 50% at 1.3229 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3245 asian low negates the rejection and exposes the 1.3266 london high
Break of the 1.3211 higher low and the rising support line puts the 1.3193 session low and 1.3200 back in play
US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs through London, bounce capped at broken Asian low.
London broke the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range lower from the 1.3266 London high and printed a 1.3193 3-month low as 24-year-high US yields and Brent above $100 lifted USD. The late-London bounce stalled at a 1.3249 retest high, right at the broken Asian low, and price sits near the 50% fib of the London sell-off into NY open.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3266, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3249 retest high reopens the 1.3266 London high and the 1.3273 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3211 swing low exposes the 1.3193 3-month low and 1.3200
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London selloff to 1.3193 low, higher low at 1.3211, rebound capped at 1.3249.
A 73-pip London slide from the london high at 1.3266 hit a 3m low at 1.3193 as surging US long-end yields and $100 Brent lifted USD. The rebound off a higher low at 1.3211 stalled at the 1.3249 rebound high, near the 76.4% of the london drop fib, and the 12:00 UTC bar printed a rejection around Mann's remarks into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3266, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3249 rebound high puts the london high at 1.3266 and psych 1.3300 in play
Break of rebound support and the 1.3211 higher low reopens the 1.3193 3m low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; higher-low recovery now retesting the Asian low from below.
London faded off the 1.3266 London high, broke the Asian range lower and printed a 3m low at 1.3193 as rising US yields and $100 Brent kept USD bid. The rebound has since built a higher low at 1.3211 and retraced past the 61.8% fib. The latest bar was rejected at the Asian low (1.3245–1.3249), with price sitting just above the EMA50 and the EMA20 near 1.3229, and RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3245 asian low puts the 1.3266 london high and 1.3272 asian high back in range
Failure to hold the 1.3229 ema20, then the 1.3211 higher low, breaks the rebound structure and exposes the 1.3193 3m low
BoE's Mann (12:00 UTC), US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce under way · RSI 53 · price 1.32342
London selloff to 1.3193, then higher low at 1.3211 and break of 1.3229.
London sold off from the 1.3266 London high through the Asian low on surging US yields and $100 Brent, bottoming at the 1.3193 session low. The bounce has since put in a higher low at 1.3211 and cleared the 1.3229 prior high. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib of that drop near 1.3238, with EMA20 reclaimed and EMA50 overhead.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3211, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3245, 1.3266
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3229 prior high returns focus to the 1.3211 higher low
Acceptance above the 1.3245 Asian low reopens the 1.3266 London high
A break of the 1.3193 session low resumes the London downtrend
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, jobless claims at 12:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; holding 1.3193–1.3229 above round number.
London opened with a break below the 1.3245–1.3272 Asian range, and the soft UK manufacturing PMI extended the slide to a 1.3193 session low before buyers stepped in just under the 1.3200 round number. The rebound stalled at the 1.3229 bounce high, the 50% fib of the London drop, so the lower-highs sequence remains intact.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.32292, 1.3245, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3193 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.3229 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.3245 Asian low, then the 1.3266 london high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London open; Asian low broken, 1.3200 dip reclaimed.
London broke the 1.3245 Asian low after the soft UK manufacturing PMI and extended to a 1.3193 session low, but the move below the 1.3200 psych level was quickly reclaimed. The rebound stalled at the 1.3229 bounce high, the 50% retrace of the London leg. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.32292, 1.32448
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3229 bounce high (London leg 50% fib) opens a retest of the 1.3245 Asian low
Close back below 1.3200 psych exposes the 1.3193 session low
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London open; false break below 1.3200 reclaimed, bounce testing lower high.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.3245 from the 1.3266 london high, and the soft UK PMI at 08:30 UTC extended the slide through the 1.3200 ytd low to a 1.3193 session low. Price has since reclaimed 1.3200 and printed a higher low at 1.3214. The bounce is now pressing the 1.3228 lower high and the 38.2–50% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200, 1.3193
Resistance: 1.3228, 1.3245, 1.3266
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3228 lower high and the 50% fib near 1.3230 opens a retest of the 1.3245 asian low
Loss of the 1.3214 higher low and a close back below the 1.3200 ytd low would void the false-break read and put the 1.3193 session low back in play
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC fall within the next few bars
US ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; 1.3200 swept and reclaimed.
London opened off a 1.3266 london high and broke the Asian low at 1.3245. Soft UK PMI and house-price data extended the lower-high sequence to a 1.3193 session low, a sweep under the 1.3200 round number, which the digest flags as the YTD-low area. Price has since reclaimed 1.3200 and is stalling near the 38.2% retracement of the London drop at 1.3221, just under the 1.3225 bounce high; RSI(14) is near 39, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.32251, 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3193 session low resumes the lower-low sequence through the 1.3200 round number
Close above the 1.3225 bounce high and the lower highs line opens the 1.3245 asian low, now overhead resistance
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection near the 50% fib of the London drop (~1.3230) keeps the bounce corrective inside the downtrend
Lower highs through London; 1.3200 break reclaimed.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.3245 and printed lower highs from the 1.3266 London high. The leg extended after the soft UK manufacturing PMI and on firm USD, dipping through the 1.3200 round number to a 1.3193 session low. Price has since reclaimed 1.3200 and is testing the 38.2% fib retrace near 1.3221, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.32277, 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3193 session low turns the false break into a fresh lower low
Close above the 1.3228 lower high and the 50% fib breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3245 Asian low in play as resistance
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into psych support · RSI 28 · price 1.32057
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London broke the 1.3245 Asian low at the open and extended a ~70-pip slide from the 1.3266 London high, with the soft UK PMI and a firm USD keeping lower highs in place. The 10:00 UTC probe to a 1.3193 session low saw rejection back above the 1.3200 psych / two-month floor; RSI(14) sits near 28.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31927
Resistance: 1.32277, 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below 1.3200 and the 1.3193 session low extend the lower-low chain
Recovery through the 1.3228 swing high (38.2–50% fib zone) breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 1.3245 Asian low next overhead
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims 12:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 26 · price 1.31996
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL chain, now pressing 1.3200.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3245 straight from the open and has printed lower highs since, extending through the soft UK PMI and firm USD to a 1.3198 session low. Price is sitting on the 1.3200 psych level, the two-month low flagged in the digest, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 1.31976
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32277, 1.32448
What it said to watch
M15 close holding below 1.3200 psych confirms the break of the two-month low and leaves the 1.3198 session low as the only nearby reference
Close back above the 1.3228 lower high breaks the LH chain on the London drop trendline
A return above the 1.3245 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London open saw rejection at the 1.3266 London high, then a break of the 1.3245 Asian low. The London drop ran ~58 pips to a 1.3209 session low as USD demand on firm yields met a slight UK PMI miss. The bounce stalled at the 1.3228 bounce high, short of the 38.2% retrace, with descending highs intact and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3228, 1.3245, 1.3266
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3209 session low exposes 1.3200, the 2-month low
M15 close back above the 1.3245 Asian low and the descending highs line negates the London breakdown
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range
Lower highs since Asia; London broke Asian range low.
London broke below the 1.3245 Asian low in its first hour. The lower-highs sequence then extended to a 1.3208 session low after the soft UK PMI, with a firm USD adding pressure. Price is pausing just above the 1.3200 YTD low with RSI(14) near 37, and the 1.3225 breakdown area now sits overhead.
Support: 1.32085, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3200 YTD low extends the London downtrend into fresh lows
An M15 close back above the 1.3245 Asian low, which coincides with the London drop fib 61.8%, invalidates the breakdown read
A close above the 1.3266 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high chain into session low.
London rejected the 1.3266 London high and broke the Asian low at 1.3245. Each bounce since has made a lower high under the descending trendline. Price sits at the 1.3209 session low, about 9 pips above the 1.3200 2-month low, with RSI(14) near 28 as USD holds bid on elevated US yields and soft Nationwide data weighs mildly on GBP.
Support: 1.32085, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32324, 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3200 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3232 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Recovery back above the 1.3245 asian low negates the range break
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending in London · RSI 32 · price 1.32174
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs and lower lows.
London open broke below the Asian low at 1.3245 and pressed to a 1.3215 session low. The move is capped by lower highs from the 1.3266 London high, with USD demand on firm yields and a soft Nationwide print weighing on Cable. RSI(14) is near 32, not yet oversold, and the 1.3200 2-month low sits just below.
Support: 1.32146, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32448, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3245 Asian low (61.8% of the London drop) negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3215 session low exposes the 1.3200 2-month low
A break above the lower-highs trendline from the London high shifts the intraday structure
BoE Mann (12:00 UTC), US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 35 · price 1.32241
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL sequence off 1.3266.
London open reversed from the London high at 1.3266 and broke the 1.3245–1.3273 Asian range, with the Asian low giving way and a session low printing at 1.3222. Firm USD demand on elevated yields extended yesterday's fade from 1.3311. The 07:45 bounce stalled at 1.3243, just under the asian low and the 50% of the London leg fib, and lower highs have followed since. RSI(14) near 35 is soft, not stretched, and 1.3200 is the 2-month low below.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3245 asian low negates the range-break read
Acceptance below the 1.3222 session low exposes the 1.3200 2-month low
Lower highs trendline from 1.3266 caps the bounce; a break above it targets the london high and asian high
BoE's Mann 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ISM Mfg PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC are later USD risk
Lower highs from the 1.3311 spike high; Asian range broken lower at London open, basing at 1.3225.
London open broke the Asian range in a 40-pip slide from the 1.3266 London high to a 1.3225 session low, extending the lower-highs fade from yesterday's 1.3311 spike as firm US yields kept the USD bid. Price is holding just above the session low with RSI(14) near 37, and the broken asian low at 1.3245, also the 50% fib of the London drop, sits overhead.
Support: 1.32251, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.32662
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3245 (fib 50%) reopens the London high at 1.3266
Failure to hold the 1.3225 session low exposes the 2-month low at 1.3200
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ISM Mfg PMI and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the main USD-side risk later in the NY session
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian range low broken at London open.
London open faded a pop to the 1.3266 london high and broke the Asian range low at 1.3245, printing a 1.3225 london low on broad USD demand. Price is holding just above that low, below the 38.2% retrace of the London drop, with RSI(14) near 41 and lower highs intact from the 1.3273 asian high.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266, 1.32725
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.3245 (50% of the London drop) would mark a failed break
Failure to hold the london low at 1.3225 opens the 1.3200 two-month low
Break of the lower-high trendline from the asian high undercuts the downtrend read
Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs overnight, Asian range broken to the downside at London open.
London open brought a 41-pip slide from 1.3266 on broad USD demand. The drop broke the Asian low at 1.3245 and yesterday's 1.3256 low, then printed a session low at 1.3225. Lower highs at the 1.3273 Asian high and 1.3266 define the overnight downtrend, and RSI(14) at 33 is soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3266, 1.32725
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.3245 asian low, near 50% of the London drop fib, would negate the range break
Break of the 1.3225 session low exposes the 1.3200 2-month low
M15 close above the 1.3266 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims at 12:30 and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
Early London session: the London open pop to 1.3266 was rejected below the 1.3273 Asian high, and the 07:15 UTC bar then broke the 1.3245 Asian low to a session low at 1.3239 as USD firmness persisted. The lower highs from the Asian high to the London high keep the intraday descending sequence intact. RSI(14) is near 37 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32448, 1.32662, 1.32725
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3245 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3239 session low exposes the 1.3200 two-month low
An M15 close above the 1.3266 London high breaks the lower-highs line
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Claims at 12:30, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London open rebound · RSI 53 · price 1.32612
Asian range 1.3245–1.3272; rising lows off the Asian low into London.
Firm USD pressed GBPUSD from the 1.3272 Asian high to a double bottom at the 1.3245 Asian low. The London open rebound stalled at the 1.3266 London high and is now holding the 61.8% fib of the Asian decline, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and a short chain of rising lows above the 1.3255 prior NY low.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32448
Resistance: 1.32662, 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3266 London high opens a retest of the 1.3272 Asian high; acceptance above that puts 1.3300 psych back in view
A break of the rising lows and the 1.3255 prior NY low exposes the 1.3245 Asian low again
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3245–1.3272; double bottom at the asian low, rebound into fib resistance.
Asia slid from the 1.3272 asian high to a 1.3245 double bottom, undercutting yesterday's 1.3255 prior low as USD demand on firm yields persisted. At London open price is back above both EMAs and is testing the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop near 1.3262.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3262, 1.3272, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3272 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside; 1.3311 prior high (PCE spike top) sits above
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 1.3262 and a loss of the 1.3255 prior low re-expose the 1.3245 asian low
BoE's Mann 12:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from Asian high; descending trendline capping bounces.
Asia extended the post-PCE fade from 1.3311. It broke below yesterday's 1.3255 NY low and stepped lower from the 1.3273 Asian high to a 1.3245 Asian low on a firm USD bid. The bounce off the Asian low stalled at the 1.3258 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels and at the descending trendline, with price just under EMA20 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3258, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3258 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.3245 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3202 ytd low area
Reclaim of the 1.3273 asian high negates the intraday downtrend read
London open at 07:00 UTC; BoE Mann 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs from 1.3273; false break below 1.3250 shelf reclaimed.
GBPUSD has unwound most of yesterday's post-PCE spike to 1.3311. Asia printed lower highs from the 1.3273 asia high as USD demand resumed on yields and oil. A late-Asia dip under the 1.3250 shelf to the 1.3245 asia low was reclaimed at 06:00 UTC, which lifts price to the 38.2% retrace near 1.3255 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 1.3250, 1.32448
Resistance: 1.32602, 1.32725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3260 lower high clears the Asia downtrend line and exposes the 1.3273 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.3250 shelf reopens the 1.3245 asia low
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows, pressing the 1.3245 session low.
Yesterday's post-PCE spike to 1.3311 has been fully unwound. Asia has stepped lower under a descending trendline from the 1.3272 Asian high, through a 1.3260 lower high, and the 1.3245 session low has been tested twice ahead of London open as USD demand resumes. RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4.5 pips point to an orderly drift rather than a flush.
Support: 1.32448, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32602, 1.32725
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3260 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.3245 session low extends the lower-low chain; the 1.3200 two-month low is the next marked level
Reclaim of the 1.3272 Asian high would neutralise the overnight decline
London open in ~1h, then BoE Mann 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.32487
Post-PCE spike fully faded, NY range broken lower, LH/LL chain in late Asia.
GBPUSD has given back the whole post-PCE spike to 1.3311. Late Asia broke the ny low at 1.3255 as USD demand resumed on oil and yields, and price is now sitting on the day low near 1.3244. A lower high at 1.3260 below the asia high at 1.3273 defines the Asian downtrend line. RSI(14) is near 39, not stretched, and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32439, 1.3240
Resistance: 1.32555, 1.32602, 1.32725
What it said to watch
London open (~07:00 UTC): a break of the 1.3244 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3240 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3255 ny low and the Asian downtrend line through the 1.3260 lower high invalidates the down-leg read
Asia high at 1.3273 lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the PCE spike fade
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC; ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; 1.3250 base broken.
The fade from the 1.3311 post-PCE spike has resumed in the Asia session. The 1.3250 round number held three times, then gave way to a 1.3246 session low, with the 1.3273 Asian high and 1.3260 lower high forming a descending sequence as USD stays bid on elevated yields. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR is around 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.32455, 1.32334, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32602, 1.32725
What it said to watch
Recovery and M15 close back above the 1.3250 round number would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.3260 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3246 session low exposes the 1.3233 swing low, with the 1.3200 2-month low beyond
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC and US ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below prior NY range.
Late Asia session: price slipped beneath the 1.3255 prior NY low and has carved lower highs off the 1.3272 Asian high. It now sits at the 1.3246 session low with RSI(14) near 29 as USD demand resumes on firm US yields. Yesterday's post-PCE spike to 1.3311 is fully unwound, and price is back near the pre-GDP base at 1.3233.
Support: 1.32455, 1.32334
Resistance: 1.32554, 1.32602, 1.32725
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3255 prior NY low turns the range break into a false break
Break of the descending trendline and the 1.3260 lower high ends the Asian lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.3246 session low exposes the 1.3233 pre-GDP base
London open liquidity, BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, and US ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into London open · RSI 31 · price 1.32503
Lower highs from 1.3311 spike, Asian range broken lower.
The post-PCE fade from the 1.3311 spike high has continued. The 1.3273 Asian high capped a lower high, and late Asia broke the 1.3255 NY low as USD demand resumed on elevated yields. Price is pinned at the 1.3250 round number after four tests since the break, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3250, 1.32284
Resistance: 1.32554, 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3250 round number exposes the 1.3228 swing low from before yesterday's London open.
A reclaim of the 1.3255 NY low back into the Asian range neutralises the break. The 1.3273 Asian high sits on the lower highs line.
Only a recovery through 1.3300 psych, near the 61.8% of the post-PCE fade, undoes the sequence.
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read. ISM at 14:00 UTC lands later in the NY session.
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 32 · price 1.32515
Lower highs off 1.3311 rejection; post-NY range floor broken, holding 1.3250.
The post-GDP/PCE spike to 1.3311 met rejection, and NY unwound the move into a 1.3255–1.3269 range. Asia broke the range floor from the 1.3273 Asian high under firm USD and yields. The Asian low at 1.3250 has held twice, with a lower high at 1.3260 and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3227
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3260, 1.3273
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3256 range floor and 1.3260 lower high invalidates the Asian break-down read
Acceptance below the 1.3250 asian low exposes the 1.3227 pre-gdp low from yesterday's open
London open in ~2h typically resets the Asian range; reclaiming the 1.3273 asian high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC and BoE Mann 12:00 UTC are the next catalysts for this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.32502
Overnight range broken lower, testing session low.
GBPUSD has fully unwound the soft-PCE spike to 1.3311. Late in the Asia session it broke the 1.3255–1.3270 overnight range and tapped a 1.3250 session low twice as USD demand resumed on elevated yields. The 1.3272 Asian high and the 1.3260 lower high cap the bounce, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.3250, 1.32235
Resistance: 1.32602, 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3250 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3224 24h low
Reclaim of the 1.3260 lower high, then the 1.3272 Asian high, negates the range-break read
Failure to recover the 1.3300 round number keeps the post-PCE fib retracement capped below
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke below the overnight 1.3255 floor; price is now retesting it from below.
The UK GDP and soft-PCE rally from the 1.3223 prior low to 1.3311 has unwound past its 61.8% fib. USD buying in Asia pushed price through the 1.3255 NY low to a 1.3250 Asian low, capped by a falling line of lower highs from the 1.3272 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is a tight 4.4 pips, with London open still ahead.
Support: 1.3250, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3256 ny low turns the break into a false break; reclaiming the 1.3272 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3250 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3223 prior low
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend from post-PCE high, momentum stalling near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.3258
Lower highs since 1.3311; Asia swept 1.3255 NY low, reclaimed.
The failed hold of 1.3300 psych after the PCE spike to 1.3311 left a descending highs sequence, and late Asia session pushed through the 1.3255 NY low to an Asian low at 1.3250 as USD demand resumed. Price has reclaimed 1.3258 but sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40. The Asian high at 1.3272, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, caps the bounce.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3272 asian high and 38.2% fib breaks the descending highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3255 ny low and then the 1.3250 asian low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.3200 area
A move back through 1.3300 psych would undo the post-PCE rejection read
London open in about 3h is likely to set the session range
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke below overnight range floor, testing 1.3250.
Asia session rejected the 1.3272 Asia high and broke the 1.3255 overnight range floor, printing the 1.3250 round number as USD buying resumed. Wednesday's UK GDP/PCE rally failed at the 1.3300 psych level and is now retraced beyond 61.8%, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3250, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32555, 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3255 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3250 round number exposes the 1.3223 prior low
A move through the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3272 Asia high shifts structure to neutral
A recovery toward the 1.3300 psych level would revisit the failed rally top
BoE's Mann 12:00, US claims 12:30 and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session broke below overnight range and NY low; sitting on 1.3250 session low.
Asia session topped at the 1.3273 asian high, then broke the overnight 1.3259–1.3273 range and yesterday's ny low at 1.3256. That extends the lower-high sequence from the 1.3311 post-PCE rejection, with USD firm on elevated yields. Price is pressing the 1.3250 round number, RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3250, 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32559, 1.32725
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3256 ny low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3250 round number exposes the 1.3223 prior low, then the 1.3200 2-month low
A reclaim of the 1.3273 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline
London open at 07:00 UTC often sets direction for the session
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the PCE spike · RSI 35 · price 1.32548
Lower highs from 1.3311; late-Asia break below the NY low.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.3311 pce spike after the soft US PCE print. A push to the 1.3273 asia high faded under the downtrend line, and late in the Asia session price slipped through the 1.3255 ny low to a 1.3252 session low, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) about 4.5 pips ahead of London.
Support: 1.32518, 1.32439, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32555, 1.32725
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3256 ny low would turn the late-Asia break into a false break
A close above the downtrend line (~1.3266) and the 1.3273 asia high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3252 session low exposes the 1.3244 gdp base, where the UK GDP rally started, then the 1.3223 day low
BoE Mann at 12:00, US jobless claims at 12:30 and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.32549
Lower highs from 1.3311; overnight floor near 1.3255 giving way.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.3311 was rejected above the 1.3300 round number. The 58-pip PCE leg has since retraced fully to the Asian session low at 1.3253, as resumed USD demand on firm yields shows up in price. A late-Asia drop from the 1.3272 Asian high set another lower high on the trendline and is now pressing through the overnight 1.3255 floor, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR near 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.32531, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3272 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3253 session low exposes the 1.3223 prior low from Tuesday's Asia
London open typically expands range beyond the ~4.6 pip ATR
US claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Mfg and Waller 14:00 UTC, and BoE's Mann 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend from 1.3311 high, Asia drift lower · RSI 36 · price 1.32554
Lower highs since PCE spike; overnight 1.3255 base marginally broken.
GBP/USD has retraced about 63% of Wednesday's GDP/PCE rally from 1.3223 to 1.3311. Price sits on the 61.8% fib as the USD bid returns on firm yields. The Asia session faded from 1.3272 and printed a marginal new low at 1.3253 just under the overnight 1.3255 base; RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.32531, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32725, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 1.3253 asian low extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3223 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.3272 asian high negates the Asia lower-high and the fib break read
Round number 1.3300 remains the failed-close ceiling from Wednesday
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the PCE spike · RSI 38 · price 1.32557
Asian range broken lower, fresh session low at 1.3253.
Mid-Asia session, the pair slipped out of the 1.3261–1.3272 Asian range. It printed a session low at 1.3253, just under Wednesday's NY lows near 1.3255, as USD buying resumed on firm yields. Price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the GDP-to-PCE rally, with RSI(14) at 38 and the lower-high chain from the 1.3311 PCE spike intact.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3250, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3272, 1.3280
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3261 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3253 session low and the 1.3250 round number exposes the 1.3223 pre-GDP low
A close above the 1.3272 Asian high and the 1.3280 barrier would break the lower-highs trendline
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, now basing · RSI 38 · price 1.32562
Lower highs from 1.3311; 1.3255–1.3272 range.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD was rejected at the 1.3272 Asian high and is back at the 1.3255 range low. This is the third test of that floor since the false break above 1.3300 psych to the 1.3311 pce high on the US PCE print. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 38, still capped by the descending high line from 1.3311.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 range low exposes the 1.3244 gdp base, where yesterday's UK GDP rally started
Recovery above the 1.3272 asian high and the descending high line invalidates the lower-high read
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3300 psych and the 1.3311 pce high mark the rejection zone from yesterday
Range 1.3255–1.3272 since late NY; Asia testing its own low.
GBP/USD gave back over half of yesterday's GDP/PCE-driven rally from the 1.3223 swing low to 1.3311. It has ranged between the 1.3255 range low and 1.3272 since late NY, sitting between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. Asia session saw a rejection at the 1.3272 Asian high and is now pressing the 1.3260 Asian low, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR(14) near 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3255, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 range low, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, breaks the overnight range and exposes the 1.3223 swing low
Recovery above the 1.3272 Asian high and the 1.3279 lower high shifts the read back toward the 1.3300 psych level
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Sideways after NY-session selloff · RSI 56 · price 1.3268
Tight range 1.3255–1.3273 below the PCE spike.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.3311 met rejection above the 1.3300 round number. NY hours then unwound it to the 1.3255 NY low, and the pair has ranged since. The Asian session is drifting at 1.3268, capped at the 1.3273 Asian high near the 23.6% PCE spike fib, with ATR(14) near 4 pips and price pinned around EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3273 Asian high exposes the 1.3279 London high and the 38.2% PCE spike fib near 1.3277
Break below the 1.3261 Asian low puts the 1.3255 NY low, tested twice yesterday, back in focus
Mann 12:00 UTC, US claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could break the range and materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Post-PCE pullback, Asia recovery · RSI 63 · price 1.32704
Double low at 1.3255; Asia breaking above the overnight range top.
The post-PCE spike to 1.3311 reversed to a double low at 1.3255. Late NY and early Asia then held a 1.3255–1.3269 range. Asia has pushed above the 1.3269 range top to a 1.3272 session high, just over the 23.6% retracement of the post-PCE drop, with RSI(14) at 63 and M15 ranges compressed near 3–4 pips.
Support: 1.3269, 1.3261, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.32725, 1.32766, 1.32919
What it said to watch
Holding 1.3269 as support keeps the range break intact; slipping back under it returns price to the overnight range
An M15 close above the 1.3272 session high exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3277, then the 1.3292 swing high
Loss of the 1.3261 asian low puts the 1.3255 double low back in play
BoE's Mann (12:00 UTC), US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Post-spike pullback, flattening into range · RSI 65 · price 1.32702
Overnight range 1.3255–1.3269, early Asia probing the top.
The rally that followed the UK GDP beat and the soft US PCE print spiked to 1.3311, then met rejection. It retraced to the range low at 1.3255, which aligns with the 61.8% fib, and has spent the NY close and early Asia session in a tight band. Early Asia is now testing the band's top at the 50% fib near 1.3267–1.3272, with RSI(14) near 65. The 38.2% fib at 1.3277 is the next level overhead.
Support: 1.3267, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3277, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 50% fib at 1.3267 returns price to the range
Holding above 1.3277 (38.2% fib) opens the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3311 spike high
Failure at the range low at 1.3255 extends the retracement beyond the 61.8% fib
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read once London and NY open
Early Asia session is drifting inside the 1.3255–1.3272 band that has held since the NY afternoon. That followed the GDP-led rally and the PCE spike to the 1.3311 pce high, a false break above 1.3300 that met rejection and unwound to the ny low at 1.3255. Price sits near the 23.6% of that selloff, with both EMAs flat and hugging price, RSI(14) at ~54 and ATR(14) at ~4 pips; no directional setup in play.
Support: 1.32608, 1.32554
Resistance: 1.32718, 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3272 asia high and the 38.2% fib near 1.3277 breaks the overnight range
Close below the 1.3261 asia low, then the 1.3255 ny low, extends the post-PCE selloff
1.3300 round number and 1.3311 pce high remain the cap after the false break
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Flat after post-PCE selloff, pressing range top · RSI 60 · price 1.32692
15-pip range 1.3255–1.3270 since NY afternoon, double low at base.
The soft-PCE spike through 1.3300 to 1.3311 reversed during NY hours as USD recovered on the growth beats. Price slid to a double low at 1.3256, the 61.8% of the rally fib. Early Asia is pressing the range top at 1.3270, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3270 range top opens the 1.3279 lower high, then 1.3300 psych
Loss of the 1.3261 asia low puts the 1.3256 double low back in play; a break below it voids the range read and the rally fib 61.8%
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, US claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC could break the range later today
00:31 UTC
Post-PCE pullback, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.32649
Tight 1.3255–1.3269 range after reversal from 1.3311.
The soft US PCE print at 12:30 UTC briefly pushed GBPUSD through the 1.3300 round number to a 1.3311 pce high before strong US growth data reversed it. The pair has since held a 14-pip range for about 8 hours between the 1.3255 range floor, which sits near the fib 61.8% retracement of the 1.3223–1.3311 move, and the 1.3269 range top near the fib 50%. Early Asia session is inside that range with a 1.3261 asia low.
Support: 1.32606, 1.32554
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3269 range top opens 1.3300 round number and the 1.3311 pce high
Failure to hold the 1.3255 range floor at fib 61.8% exposes the 1.3223 Asian low from the prior session
Mann at 12:00 UTC, then Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the range
00:16 UTC
Sideways after post-PCE reversal · RSI 50 · price 1.32631
Tight range 1.3255–1.3269 below failed 1.3300 break.
The soft US PCE print briefly lifted GBP/USD through the 1.3300 psych level to a 1.3311 PCE high before a rejection. The fade held twice at the 1.3255 range low, near the 61.8% fib of the London rally. Price has been compressed below the 1.3269 range top from NY close into the Asia session, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 range low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes yesterday's 1.3234 asian high
Close above the 1.3269 range top reopens the 1.3300 psych level and the 1.3311 PCE high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asia-session compression
00:01 UTC
Post-PCE pullback, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.32623
Tight range 1.3255–1.3269 below the 1.3311 PCE spike high.
The UK GDP beat at the London open and the soft PCE print drove a rally from 1.3223 to the 1.3311 PCE high. Price was rejected back under the 1.3300 psych level, and NY gave back half the move. Price now sits between the 50% (1.3267) and 61.8% (1.3256) fib, with demand twice holding the 1.3255 swing low and the range top at 1.3269 capping since rollover.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3300, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 swing low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Acceptance above the 1.3269 range top reopens 1.3300 psych and the 1.3311 pce high
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, then US claims at 12:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC, could break the range
ATR near 3.6 pips reflects thin Asia-session conditions, and range expansion is likely into London