GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Range after rejected rally · RSI 48 · price 1.32642
Post-PCE spike reversed; flat range 1.3255–1.3269 holding the 61.8% fib.
The 1.3300 round number gave way briefly as GBP/USD spiked to 1.3311 on the soft US PCE print, but the move was rejected and price bled back through NY to a 1.3255 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian low-to-spike rally. Since then it has held a tight range under the 1.3269 range top into the Asia session, with RSI near 48 and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.32863, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 swing low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes the 1.3223 Asian low
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens a retest of the 1.3286 lower high
Mann speaks at 12:00 UTC, Jobless Claims at 12:30 and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC. Any of them could break the range.
23:31 UTC
Flat after PCE-high rejection · RSI 56 · price 1.32649
Tight range 1.3255–1.3269 since 16:00 UTC, double bottom at base.
London broke the Asian range high on the UK GDP beats, and the soft US PCE spike printed the pce high at 1.3311. Price then faded 55 pips to the 61.8% fib at 1.3256, a double bottom at 1.3255, and has held a 14-pip range below the range top at 1.3269 into early Asia. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) is compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens the 1.3280 cap from the digest
Failure to hold the 1.3255 double bottom / 61.8% fib exposes the prior asian high at 1.3234
Only a reclaim of the 1.3311 pce high would negate the post-PCE rejection
BoE Mann 12:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Post-spike fade, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.3263
Lower highs off 1.3311 PCE high, tight range 1.3255–1.3269.
UK GDP beats lifted GBP/USD out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. Soft US PCE then spiked it to the 1.3311 PCE high, but that level was rejected and NY faded to a 1.3255 range low. Since late NY, through the rollover, price has held a 1.3255–1.3269 range, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3278, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens the 1.3278 london high, near the 38.2% fib of the PCE-high fade
Failure to hold the 1.3255 range low, tested twice in NY, exposes the 1.3246 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.3311 pce high would negate the post-PCE rejection
BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 12:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the range
23:01 UTC
Pullback from session high, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.3263
Lower highs since 1.3311 rejection, tight range 1.3255–1.3269.
UK GDP beats lifted the pair out of the Asian range from 1.3223 during London, and the soft US PCE print spiked it to a 1.3311 session high, which was rejected immediately. NY hours then printed lower highs down to the 1.3255 NY low. Early Asia is compressing between 1.3255 and the 1.3269 range top, with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3279, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top breaks the NY lower highs line and puts the 1.3279 london high back in play; that level is also the 38.2% of the post-PCE drop
Failure to hold the 1.3255 NY low extends the post-PCE drop and exposes the 1.3223 Asia low
Only a return above the 1.3311 PCE spike high would negate the rejection
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC and BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC on Oct 1 could break this range
22:46 UTC
Pullback from spike high, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.32644
Tight 1.3255–1.3269 range after NY unwound the PCE spike.
UK GDP beats lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range at London open, and soft US PCE spiked it to a 1.3311 PCE spike high that was rejected at once. NY hours unwound the move to a 1.3255 NY low, tested twice to form a double bottom at the 61.8% retracement. Since then price has been ranging 1.3255–1.3269 into the Asia open, with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3278, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 NY low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 1.3234 Asian high
Close above the 1.3269 range top opens the 1.3278 London high, then the 1.3311 PCE spike
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Post-spike pullback, flattening into range · RSI 54 · price 1.32644
Lower highs from 1.3311 into a 1.3256–1.3269 range.
UK GDP beats at 06:00 UTC and the soft US PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a leg to a 1.3311 session high, rejected as US growth beats firmed the dollar. Since NY hours price has compressed in a 1.3256–1.3269 range into the Asia session, with the range low sitting on the 61.8% fib of the rally and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range high reopens the 1.3280 barrier
Failure to hold the 1.3256 range low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3246 post-gdp low
BoE's Mann at 12:00 UTC, then US claims 12:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC, could break the range
22:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, stalled in range · RSI 53 · price 1.32655
Lower highs off 1.3311 PCE spike; tight 14-pip range holding the 61.8% fib.
UK GDP beats at 06:00 UTC lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range, and soft US PCE spiked it to the 1.3311 pce high before a sharp rejection. NY hours unwound the move to 1.3255, the 61.8% fib of the day's rally. Price has ranged 1.3255–1.3269 since, flat into a thin Asia session with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 range low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Close above the 1.3269 range high puts the 1.3280 cap back in play; 1.3311 pce high is the next reference
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC Thu, plus BoE Mann 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Pullback from session high, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.32618
Tight range 1.3255–1.3269 after NY rejection.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke the Asian high at 1.3234, and the soft PCE print extended the leg to the 1.3311 pce high. Price was sharply rejected back below 1.3300 during NY hours. The drop stalled twice at the 1.3255 range low, the 61.8% fib of the move, and price has held a 1.3255–1.3269 range into the Asia open with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR at about 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3279, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 range low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Close above the 1.3269 range high puts the 1.3279 prior pivot, near the 1.3280 cap, back in play
Kashkari (22:00 UTC, now) could jolt the thin Asian range
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller 14:00 UTC Thu, with BoE Mann at 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Post-spike pullback, flattening into a range · RSI 52 · price 1.32654
Lower highs off the 1.3311 PCE high, now a tight 1.3255–1.3269 box.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC lifted cable out of the Asian range. The soft US PCE then spiked it to the 1.3311 PCE high, where it was rejected, and NY faded the move to the 61.8% retrace near the 1.3255 NY low. Since then price has compressed in a 1.3255–1.3269 box into the Asia session, with ATR shrinking to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.32789, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top reopens the 1.3279 London high and the 1.3280 cap
Failure to hold the 1.3255 NY low (61.8%) exposes the 1.3234 Asian high
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could break the late-session compression
ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu are the larger risk to this read
21:31 UTC
Post-spike pullback, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.32652
Tight post-NY range 1.3255–1.3269 below lower highs.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked cable to a 1.3311 PCE high that was rejected at once, as US growth beats capped the move, and NY sold off into a 1.3255 double low that was retested at 19:45. Late NY and post-close trade is coiling in a 1.3255–1.3269 box, holding only a shallow retrace of the PCE spike, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3278, 1.3311
What it said to watch
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could break the range top at 1.3269 or the double low at 1.3255
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top brings the 1.3280 cap into view
Failure to hold the 1.3255 double low exposes the 1.3223 Asian low
Asia session likely keeps the range intact barring a headline
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike; tight 1.3255–1.3269 range.
The UK GDP beat lifted cable out of the Asian range. The soft US PCE then spiked it to a session high at 1.3311, where it was rejected. NY retraced to a double low at 1.3255, the 61.8% fib of that move, and price is now consolidating below the 1.3269 range top into the Asia session, RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 double low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the asian high at 1.3234
Close above the 1.3269 range top (50% fib) opens a retest of the 1.3280 prior cap
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift this read; ISM and Waller Thu 14:00 UTC are the larger risk
21:01 UTC
Post-spike pullback, stalling in late NY · RSI 44 · price 1.32626
Lower highs from 1.3311 PCE high, tight late-NY range 1.3255–1.3269.
The soft US PCE spiked cable to the 1.3311 pce high at 12:30 UTC. The rejection there saw NY unwind the London leg built on the UK GDP beats, back to the 1.3255 ny low. Late NY has compressed into a 14-pip range under the 1.3269 range top, with price just below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens the fib 38.2% near 1.3277
Failure to hold the 1.3255 ny low exposes the 1.3246 gdp pullback low from the London open
A recovery through the 1.3300 round number would bring the pce high back into play
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could break the late-NY range
20:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.32649
Late-NY range 1.3255–1.3269 after PCE spike rejection.
UK GDP beats lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range through London. The soft US PCE then spiked it to a 1.3311 day high that was rejected within one bar. NY unwound to a double low at 1.3255–1.3256, on the 61.8% fib of the day's rally, and late NY is flat in a 1.3255–1.3269 range with RSI(14) near 45 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.32555, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3279, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens the 1.3279 London high. Only a reclaim there brings the 1.3311 day high back into view.
Failure to hold the 1.3255 double low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.3234 Asian high.
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then Thu jobless claims (12:30), Mann (12:00) and ISM/Waller (14:00), could shift the USD read.
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, fading into late-NY range · RSI 40 · price 1.32646
Asian range break, 1.3311 rejection, lower range 1.3255–1.3269.
Cable cleared the Asian range on the UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC and spiked to the 1.3311 day high on the 12:30 UTC US data. It met rejection there as strong US growth prints offset the soft PCE. NY faded the move to the 1.3255 NY low near the 61.8% fib, and late NY has held a tight 1.3255–1.3269 range with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.32554, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3278, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top opens the path to the 1.3278 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3255 NY low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then ISM and Waller Thu 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Pullback from PCE spike, now flattening · RSI 45 · price 1.32616
Lower highs off 1.3311, late-NY range 1.3255–1.3269.
Cable left the Asian range on the UK GDP beat and spiked to the 1.3311 pce high on the soft US PCE print. That spike was rejected, and NY hours carved lower highs into the 1.3255 ny low, the 61.8% fib of the rally. Late NY has compressed between 1.3255 and the 1.3269 lower high, with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.32555, 1.3234, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3277, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 ny low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3234 asian high, then the 1.3223 asian low
M15 close above the 1.3269 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib at 1.3277 in play
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could move price in thin post-NY liquidity
ISM and Waller at Thu 14:00 UTC are the next major test after the Asian session
The London rally out of the Asian range on the UK GDP beats peaked with the PCE spike high at 1.3311, which was rejected at once as strong US growth data pulled USD back; NY has printed lower highs since. Late in the session, price sits on the 1.3255 NY low, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the London rally, with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 NY low opens the 1.3244 london base, where the GDP breakout started
A reclaim of the 1.3269 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.3280 cap
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could jolt thin post-NY trade
Lower highs off 1.3311, tight 1.3259–1.3269 range above ny low.
The UK GDP beat lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range, and the soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC briefly extended the rally to a 1.3311 session high. Firm US GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data then drove a rejection and a slide to the 1.3256 ny low, right at the 61.8% fib of the Asia low–session high move. Late-NY price is compressing below the 1.3269 bounce high, with ATR contracting to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.32559, 1.3250
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3274, 1.33109
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3256 ny low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes 1.3250 psych.
Recovery above the 1.3269 bounce high puts the 1.3274 breakdown pivot back in play.
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could shift USD into the Asia session.
Mann (Thu 12:00 UTC) and US claims (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts.
19:31 UTC
Post-PCE pullback, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.32639
Lower highs from 1.3311 PCE high; tight late-NY range 1.3259–1.3269.
GBP broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beats at London open. The soft US PCE then spiked cable to the 1.3311 PCE high, a false break above 1.3300 that was rejected within the bar as strong US growth data lifted the dollar. The pullback held the fib 61.8 at 1.3256, and price is now compressing in a 10-pip late-NY range (range low 1.3259, range top 1.3269) with ATR shrinking to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.32586, 1.32559, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.3278, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 range top reopens the 1.3278 london high and the 1.3280 barrier
Failure to hold the 1.3256 fib 61.8 extends lower lows toward the 1.3234 asian high
Reclaim of the 1.3311 pce high would negate the post-PCE rejection
Fed's Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) on hike timing could break the late-NY range
19:16 UTC
Intraday up leg reversed, drifting lower · RSI 41 · price 1.32599
Lower highs since 1.3311 spike; tight base at 1.3256–1.3269.
UK GDP beats at the London open lifted cable out of its tight 1.3223–1.3238 Asian range. The soft-PCE spike to a 1.3311 session high was rejected as strong US growth data backed USD. NY session sold back to the 1.3256 ny low, near the 61.8% of the GDP rally fib, and late-NY trade is compressing under a 1.3269 range top with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.32559, 1.32375
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.32789, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3256 ny low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3238 asian high
Recovery through the 1.3269 range top and the 1.3279 lower high would break the post-spike lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on October vs December hike timing could shift this read
19:01 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rally, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 1.32616
Lower highs from 1.3311 day high, holding 61.8% fib.
UK GDP beats lifted the pair out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range in London. The soft PCE print then pushed it to a 1.3311 day high, but the move above 1.3300 failed as USD recovered on the GDP and Chicago PMI beats, leaving lower highs through NY. Late in the NY session price is consolidating between the 1.3256 swing low, which sits at the 61.8% fib, and the 1.3269 lower high, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3277, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3256 swing low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 1.3234 Asian high
Close above the 1.3269 lower high and the descending resistance line reopens the fib 38.2 at 1.3277
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) on hike timing could shift the USD leg tonight
Recovery back through the 1.3311 day high would negate the false-break read
Lower highs and lower lows through NY session, price back near NY low.
GBP's GDP-beat rally out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range peaked in a spike to the 1.3311 day high on the 12:30 UTC soft PCE print, then reversed as USD recovered on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats. NY hours printed lower highs down to the 1.3256 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 1.3269 bounce high, under a quarter of the post-PCE drop, and price is drifting back toward that low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3256 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3246 post-gdp low and the 1.3234 asian high
Recovery through the 1.3269 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline puts the post-PCE drop 50% fib near the 1.3280 barrier back in play
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
Pullback from day high, lower highs since NY open · RSI 39 · price 1.32628
LH/LL sequence off 1.3311, late-NY consolidation below descending line.
The UK GDP beat lifted price out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range at London open. The soft-PCE spike to the 1.3311 day high was then rejected, and NY printed lower highs down to the 1.3256 NY low at the fib 61.8. Late NY is holding a 1.3256–1.3269 consolidation under the descending line, with the 1.3269 lower high capping the bounce.
Support: 1.32559, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32691, 1.32772, 1.33109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 lower high and the descending line breaks the NY lower-high sequence; fib 38.2 at 1.3277 sits next
Failure to hold the 1.3256 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3234 Asian high
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could reprice October hike odds and move USD
18:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rejection, momentum soft · RSI 37 · price 1.32626
Lower highs from the 1.3311 spike high; tight base 1.3262–1.3269 above the NY low.
GBP broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat and spiked to a 1.3311 session high on soft US PCE. That spike was rejected, and NY hours printed lower highs down to a 1.3256 ny low at the 61.8% fib. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between 1.3262 and the 1.3269 micro high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3279, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 micro high and the 1.3279 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3256 ny low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3246 gdp pullback low
1.3311 session high marks the PCE rejection extreme; no retest so far
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the PCE spike, now stalling · RSI 41 · price 1.32655
Lower highs from 1.3311, base at the 61.8% fib.
The UK GDP beat broke the Asian range at 06:00 UTC, and the PCE miss spiked the pair to the 1.3311 pce high before a full rejection. NY then printed lower highs down to the 1.3256 ny low, the 61.8% fib of the GDP-PCE leg, and after London close price is holding 1.3264–1.3269, just under the descending line, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3280, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3269 bounce high and the descending line breaks the NY lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.3280 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3256 ny low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.3246 post-gdp low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari speak tonight, and Thu ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Pullback from session high, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 1.32673
Asian range broken higher; post-PCE rejection at 1.3311, lower-high/lower-low sequence in NY.
London broke the Asian high at 1.3234 on the UK GDP beat, and the soft US PCE spike took price to a 1.3311 session high. That spike was rejected as strong US activity data restored the USD bid. NY has since printed lower highs down to a 1.3256 NY low near the 61.8% fib of the rally, and price sits just under the ema20 and the NY downtrend line.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3272, 1.3294, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the NY downtrend line and the ema20 near 1.3272 would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 1.3294 lower high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3256 NY low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.3246 London dip, then the 1.3234 Asian high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) tonight could shift the USD read after the PCE miss
Lower highs and lower lows off the PCE spike high, bouncing from the 61.8% fib.
The UK GDP beat lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range at the London open. The PCE miss then spiked it through 1.3300 to a 1.3311 pce high, but that break was rejected as strong US activity data restored the USD bid. Lower highs since have carried price to a 1.3256 swing low at the 61.8% fib, and after London close it is testing the lower-high line near 1.3269, with RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3277, 1.3296, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3256 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3234 asian high
A close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3277 and the lower-high line breaks the post-PCE descent, exposing the 1.3296 lower highs
A reclaim of the 1.3311 pce high negates the false break read
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift USD tone during late NY hours
Lower highs since 1.3311 rejection; bounce off 61.8% at 1.3256.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range higher. London extended to the 1.3311 pce high on the soft PCE print before a sharp rejection back under 1.3300. Through NY the pair has printed lower highs along the post-PCE trendline as USD firmed on the growth beats, with demand stepping in at the 1.3256 ny low, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the pce leg.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3296, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3280 ny shelf breaks the post-PCE trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3296 lower high reopens the 1.3311 pce high
Failure to hold the 1.3256 ny low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift the USD leg after London close
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the early-NY high · RSI 34 · price 1.32626
Lower highs and lower lows off the 1.3311 PCE spike, testing the 61.8% retrace.
London's GDP-driven rally out of the Asian range peaked at 1.3311 on the soft PCE print, but the spike was rejected as the USD bid returned on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats. Since then NY has built a clean lower-high sequence down to the 1.3256 swing low. That low sits on the 61.8% fib of the London move, with RSI(14) near 34 after London close.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3274, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3256 swing low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 1.3246 pullback low, then the 1.3234 asian high
Reclaiming the 50% fib at 1.3266 and clearing the 1.3274 lower high would end the NY lower-low sequence; the 1.3280 barrier sits just above
Descending trendline from the PCE high now caps near 1.3277
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari speak tonight and could shift this read before Thursday's ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC
16:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 34 · price 1.32624
Lower-high/lower-low sequence from 1.3311, testing London swing low.
The UK GDP beat lifted GBPUSD out of the 1.3223–1.3238 Asian range at London open. The soft PCE spike to the 1.3311 session high in the first hour of NY was then rejected as strong US activity data restored the USD bid. Since then a lower-high chain has pulled price back to the 1.3255 London swing low, the 61.8% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs after London close.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3267, 1.3292, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3255 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3238 asian high
Reclaim of the 1.3267 fib 50% and the lower highs trendline shifts the read back to range; 1.3292 lower high caps above
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift this read
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the PCE spike high · RSI 29 · price 1.32637
Lower highs and lower lows through NY hours after rejection at 1.3311.
The UK GDP beat lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range at 06:00 UTC. London extended the move, and the soft-PCE spike at 12:30 UTC tagged the 1.3311 day high before an immediate rejection. Since then NY hours have printed a lower-high/lower-low chain back to 1.3264, just under the 50% retrace of the day's rally, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 1.3256 swing low aligning with the 61.8% fib.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3279, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3279 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain and the trendline resistance
Failure to hold the 1.3256 swing low / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Reclaim of the 1.3311 day high would negate the PCE-spike rejection read
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read after the core-PCE miss
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC rejection.
The UK GDP beat lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range from 06:00 UTC. The soft core PCE print then spiked it to the 1.3311 pce spike high before a quick rejection back under the 1.3300 round number. NY session has since printed lower highs and lower lows, with price holding just above the 1.3268 NY low near the 38.2% retrace of the GDP-PCE rally and RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3255, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3286 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence off the pce spike.
Reclaiming the 1.3300 round number negates the false break above it.
Loss of the 1.3268 NY low exposes the 50% retrace and the 1.3255 london low.
Hold above the 1.3234 asian high keeps the GDP breakout structure intact.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift the USD leg after the PCE miss.
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend rolling over after the PCE spike · RSI 44 · price 1.32777
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after the 1.3311 false break.
The upside UK GDP revision lifted London out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. The soft core PCE spike then peaked at the 1.3311 pce high and reversed below the 1.3300 psych level, and NY hours have printed a lower high at 1.3292 and successive lows since. Price is resting on the 38.2% fib near 1.3277, just above the 1.3272 session low, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3292, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3272 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3256 fib 61.8, which lines up with the London morning dip
An M15 close above the 1.3292 lower high breaks the post-PCE lower highs trendline and puts the 1.3300 psych level back in play
A return above the 1.3311 pce high would negate the false break read
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak 19:25–22:00 UTC; any pushback on an October hike after the PCE miss could shift this read
Lower highs off 1.3311 PCE spike, ny low 1.3273 holding.
The UK GDP beat at the London open broke the asian high at 1.3234, and London extended to the london high at 1.3300. The soft core PCE spike to the pce high at 1.3311 was rejected straight back below 1.3300. Since then NY has printed lower highs under the falling trendline, with the ny low at 1.3273 sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the GDP-PCE rally.
Support: 1.3273, 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3273 ny low and the 38.2% retrace extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3256 swing low
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 1.3300 london high negates the PCE false break
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift the post-PCE USD read during late NY and Asia
London break above Asian range; NY lower highs off 1.3311, lows holding 38.2% fib.
The UK GDP beat at London open broke the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range higher, and the soft core PCE print spiked price to the 1.3311 pce high before a one-bar rejection. NY session has since carved lower highs under 1.3296 with a 1.3274 ny low near the 38.2% fib, while price sits back above ema20 around 1.3284.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3274, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3296 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.3300 london high and 1.3311 pce high back in play
Holding the 1.3283 pre-pce low keeps the NY pullback shallow inside the post-data range
Failure to hold the 1.3274 ny low opens the 50% fib near 1.3267 and the 1.3256 london low
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari later today could shift the USD leg after the PCE miss; London close adds month-end flow noise
Lower highs below 1.3311 since PCE rejection, holding above 1.3274.
GBP/USD left the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat and pushed through the 1.3300 round number to a 1.3311 pce spike high on the soft core PCE print. That move was rejected within a bar and slipped back below 1.3300. NY session has since printed lower highs down to the 1.3274 ny low, near the 38.2% of the GDP-PCE rally fib, with price steadying around 1.3287 and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3274, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3274 ny low extends the post-PCE lower-low sequence toward the 1.3255 london low, near the 61.8% fib
M15 close back above the 1.3300 round number reopens the 1.3311 pce spike high and negates the rejection read
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) remarks on the core PCE miss could shift the USD leg of this read
Lower highs since 1.3311 rejection, testing 38.2% of London advance.
Cable climbed from the 1.3223 Asian base through London on the UK GDP beat. It then spiked to the 1.3311 pce high on the soft core PCE print, but the push above 1.3300 was rejected. NY hours have printed a lower high at 1.3296 and a fresh 1.3274 ny low, with price sitting on the 38.2% fib and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3274, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3274 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.3266 swing low (50% fib)
Failure to hold the 1.3256 61.8% fib unwinds most of the London advance
Close back above the 1.3296 lower high breaks the post-PCE descending trendline
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) commentary on the PCE miss could materially shift this read
False break above 1.3300, pre-PCE range floor lost, lower highs in NY.
Cable left the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat and ran through London from the 1.3256 london low to 1.3300. The soft core PCE print spiked it to a 1.3311 pce high, but the break failed. NY has since slipped below the 1.3283 range floor, leaving price between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the London leg with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3270, 1.3265, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3283, 1.3296, 1.3311
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3270 breakout base exposes the 1.3265 swing low and the 1.3256 london low at the fib origin
A reclaim of the 1.3283 range floor and the 1.3296 lower high would neutralise the post-PCE rejection; 1.3311 pce high remains the cap
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), plus month-end flows, could shift this read into the NY close
Range 1.3282–1.3300 after false break above; lower highs since PCE spike.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range, and London extended to the 1.3300 range top. The soft US PCE spike to 1.3311 was a false break, rejected within one bar. Early in the NY session, price is pressing the 1.3282 range floor, tested five times since 11:00 UTC, under a line of lower highs.
Support: 1.3282, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3282 range floor exposes the 1.3266 swing low (50% of the Asia-PCE leg fib), then the 1.3256 london low (61.8%)
A close back above the 1.3300 range top breaks the lower highs and puts the 1.3311 pce spike high back in play
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) and Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) could shift this read; month-end flows may distort price
HH/HL chain from Asian range; tight range 1.3283–1.3300 since London.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke cable out of the 1.3223–1.3238 Asian range. London then built higher lows up to the 1.3300 round number. Soft US core PCE at 12:30 spiked price to the 1.3311 pce high, but it closed back under 1.3300 and has since been ranging 1.3283–1.3300 into the NY session, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and price about a third of the way into the gdp-pce leg.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3283 range floor breaks the higher lows and exposes the 1.3255 swing low
Acceptance above the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3311 pce high negates the false-break read
Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC and Fed's Cook 19:25 UTC could shift the read; month-end flows add noise
HH/HL chain from Asia; 1.3283–1.3300 shelf since mid-London, post-PCE spike rejected.
GBPUSD broke above the Asian range (1.3223–1.3234) and climbed about 80 pips through London on the upbeat UK GDP revisions. Since mid-morning it has held a 1.3283–1.3300 shelf. The soft US core PCE print spiked price to a 1.3311 pce high, but the move was rejected within one bar and price is back inside the range at the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) around 59.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3300 range top and the 1.3311 pce high resumes the HH chain
Break of the 1.3283 range floor exposes the 1.3256 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3277
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers tonight (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift the post-PCE read
London HH/HL chain capped at 1.3300, 1.3283–1.3300 range.
London broke above the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat and built higher lows up to the 1.3300 round number. The soft core PCE print spiked price to 1.3311, but the move reversed the next bar, leaving a false break. Price is back at the 1.3283 range low and testing the London trendline, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
A M15 close below the 1.3283 range low breaks the London trendline and exposes the 1.3266 swing low (50% fib)
Loss of 1.3266 puts the 61.8% fib at 1.3256 in play and undoes the London higher-low sequence
Acceptance back above the 1.3300 round number revisits the 1.3311 pce spike high and negates the false break
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could shift the post-PCE USD read
Higher lows since Asia; false break above 1.3300 at NY open.
Cable climbed from the 1.3223 Asian range low through London in a higher-low chain as US yields eased. The US PCE release spiked price to the 1.3311 pce high, then it reversed fully back under the 1.3300 round number, a false break at the session high. Price now rests on the 1.3283 twin lows near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to 56.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3277, 1.3266
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3283 twin lows breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3277
Loss of the 1.3266 swing low would mark the first intraday lower low since Asia
Reclaim of the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3311 pce high negates the false break
Post-PCE US yield repricing during NY hours could reshape this read; Friday NFP is the next major USD input
HH/HL chain from Asian low, retesting 1.3300 break.
Cable broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range ahead of London and was lifted further by the UK GDP beat. Each pullback left a higher low, at 1.3256 and then the 1.3283 swing low. The 12:30 UTC US PCE bar pushed it through the 1.3300 prior high to a 1.3311 PCE high as USD softened, and price is now holding just above 1.3300 with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3283, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3311
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.3300 prior high on this retest keeps the breakout intact; a close back below reopens the 1.3283 swing low
M15 close below 1.3283 and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.3311 PCE high extends the NY session leg; a rejection there leaves an isolated spike high
A deeper pullback to the 1.3256 61.8 fib would retrace most of the London leg
Post-PCE yield repricing in the first hour of NY could reverse the spike
HH/HL chain since London open, 1.3300 being tested.
The rebound from the 1.3202 two-month low cleared the Asian range (1.3223–1.3234) before London and built rising lows off the 1.3256 pullback low. UK GDP beats and softer US front-end yields underpinned the move. The 12:30 GMT PCE bar is pushing through 1.3300 psych to a new session high at 1.3303, after two holds at the 1.3283 swing low, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3283, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.33028
What it said to watch
Core PCE (12:30 GMT) is printing in the current bar; an M15 close back below 1.3300 psych would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3283 swing low breaks the rising-lows sequence
A break under the 1.3256 pullback low returns the London advance to a range read
Extension above the 1.3303 session high with RSI(14) above 80 would put the move in stretched territory
Higher-low chain from Asian range breakout, now in a tight range under the session high.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke price out of the tight 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. London then built a higher-low chain along the rising trendline to a 1.3300 session high as USD eased after Williams' comments. Since the 10:30 UTC peak, price has held between the 1.3283 range floor and a 1.3296 lower high, the trendline is converging on that floor and RSI(14) has cooled to ~57.
Support: 1.3283, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.32955, 1.33004
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) are landing now and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3283 range floor and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3266 higher low, then the 1.3256 london low
A close above the 1.3296 lower high and the 1.3300 session high resumes the London uptrend
London breakout above the Asian range; tight lower highs under the session high.
GBP broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range after the UK GDP beat, with Williams' comments softening USD. London cleared the 1.3278 prior high and tagged the 1.3300 session high. Since then price has carved lower highs near 1.3296, while dips have held the 1.3284 swing low twice. RSI(14) is cooling to 64 ahead of the NY open.
Support: 1.3284, 1.3278, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3296, 1.3300
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3300 session high breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3284 swing low opens a retest of the 1.3278 prior high, then the 1.3255 pullback low near the 38.2% fib
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.3300 · RSI 69 · price 1.32951
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break.
Cable cleared the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range into London on the UK GDP upgrade and softer US yields, then built higher lows at the 1.3256, 1.3266 and 1.3284 swing lows up to a 1.3300 session high. Price sits just under that round number with RSI(14) near 69, holding the rising trendline and well above the 38.2% level of the London rally fib.
Support: 1.3284, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3300 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.3284 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.3266 and 1.3256 swing lows
11:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under 1.3300 · RSI 73 · price 1.32919
HH/HL chain since the London open break of the Asian range.
Cable broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range at the London open on the UK GDP upgrade. It has since built a clean HH/HL chain, tagging 1.3300 before a rejection and a shallow pullback that held the 1.3284 higher low. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and price is sitting on rising support ahead of the US data.
Support: 1.3284, 1.3279, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3300 session high extends the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.3284 higher low and rising support breaks the intraday sequence and exposes the 1.3279 prior high (old 1.3280 barrier)
Failure at 1.3279 opens the 1.3255 swing low, just below the fib 50% of the rally off the Asian low
HH/HL chain since London open; first lower high after the 1.3300 session high.
The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC broke cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range, and London extended higher lows to a session high at 1.3300, where price was rejected. It now holds 1.3287, just above the 1.3284 swing low and the higher-lows trendline. RSI(14) has cooled to 64.
Support: 1.3284, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the hour and could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.3284 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3266 higher low
Loss of the 1.3256 pullback low undoes most of the London leg
A close above the 1.3300 session high resumes the HH/HL chain
HH/HL chain since Asia; 1.3280 broken, capped at 1.3300.
Cable lifted off the 1.3223 Asian range low into the 06:00 UTC UK GDP beats. London then built a higher-high/higher-low chain through the 1.3280 barrier before a rejection at the 1.3300 psych level. RSI(14) is easing to ~66 as the current bar drifts toward the 1.3279 prior high, with the 1.3266 swing low and 1.3256 higher low underpinning the rising trendline; the rally retracement fib 38.2% sits near 1.3271.
Support: 1.3279, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3279 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3256 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Close above 1.3300 psych extends the session high
US ADP 12:15 GMT and core PCE 12:30 GMT (f/c 3.3%), roughly 75–90 min out, could materially shift this read
Cable left the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat and softer US yields. It has printed higher lows through London along the HL trendline and tagged the 1.3300 psych level, where a rejection wick formed late in the London morning. RSI(14) is near 68. The 1.3278 prior high is the first retest level below, with the rally fib's 38.2% sitting just beneath it.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3266, 1.3255
Resistance: 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP 12:15 GMT and core PCE 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3278 prior high undoes the breakout
Loss of the 1.3266 swing low breaks the HL trendline and the higher-low chain
A slide through the 1.3255 pullback low puts the rally fib's 61.8% in play
Acceptance above 1.3300 psych extends the London uptrend
HH/HL chain from London open, Asian range broken above.
The upbeat UK GDP revision around the London open broke the Asian range (1.3223–1.3234). Cable has since printed higher lows at 1.3256 and 1.3266, cleared the 1.3280 barrier and set a session high at 1.3288, with RSI(14) near 71: firm but not stretched. The broken high at 1.3279 is the first shelf below, with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3202–1.3288 leg at 1.3256.
Support: 1.3279, 1.3266, 1.3256
Resistance: 1.3288, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) within ~2h could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3279 broken high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3266 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline
Session high at 1.3288 and the 1.3300 round number are the next areas to watch for rejection or extension
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 72 · price 1.32795
Higher highs and higher lows through London, above Asian range.
UK GDP upgrades at 06:00 UTC broke cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. London has since held a higher-low chain along rising support, with the session high at 1.3283 now testing the 1.3280 barrier. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but normal for the move, and the swing low at 1.3266 and pullback low at 1.3255 sit beneath.
Support: 1.3266, 1.3255, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3283, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3283 session high opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3266 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3255 pullback low and 50% of the GDP rally fib
A return below the 1.3234 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain intact, highs capped near 1.3280.
London open broke the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range on the UK GDP beat (Q2 revised to 0.5% q/q), with softer US yields adding to the move. That GDP leg cleared yesterday's prior high at 1.3252 and printed a higher low at 1.3256. Mid-London, the session high has been capped twice at 1.3278/1.3279 just under the 1.3280 barrier, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3252, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3279 session high clears the double cap and opens the path to the 1.3300 round number
Break of the rising trendline and loss of the 1.3256 higher low end the HH/HL chain, exposing the prior high at 1.3252 and the Asian high at 1.3234
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break, now compressing under 1.3279.
The UK Q2 GDP beat at 06:00 UTC drove cable out of the Asian range through the 1.3234 Asian high. London printed a higher low at 1.3256 and has twice been capped at the 1.3279 session high, just shy of the 1.3280 barrier. Price is holding above 1.3266 recent lows, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3266, 1.3256, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3279 session high clears the 1.3280 barrier and opens the 1.3300 round number
Loss of 1.3266 recent lows, then the 1.3256 higher low near the 38.2% of the rally fib, breaks the HH/HL chain
A slide back toward the 1.3234 asian high would unwind the London breakout
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT, f/c 3.3%) during the NY open could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 1.32694
Asian range broken higher; London higher low at 1.3256, double test of 1.3278–79.
Cable broke above the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range, with the UK GDP beat extending the move from the 1.3246 pullback low. Mid-London, price is capped at the 1.3278–79 session high, which it has tested twice, after the 1.3256 london low held near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s with no extreme.
Support: 1.3256, 1.32463, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32789, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3279 session high opens the 1.3300 round number and clears the 1.3280 barrier
Failure to hold the 1.3256 london low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3246 pullback low
Loss of the 1.3234 asian high returns price to the overnight range
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 70 · price 1.32728
Asian range break higher, HH/HL chain through London.
Cable broke the Asian high at 1.3234 into London as the UK Q2 GDP beats and USD profit-taking lifted it off Tuesday's 1.3202 low. The move extended to a 1.3278 session high, and the pullback held a higher low at 1.3256, near the 38.2% retracement. A second push is now retesting the 1.3278 session high with RSI(14) near 70, hot but not stretched.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high and the 1.3280 barrier opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3256 higher low, then the 1.3246 pullback low, breaks the HH/HL chain
A return inside the Asian range below the 1.3234 asian high negates the breakout read
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back into higher lows · RSI 70 · price 1.32706
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain through London morning, session high 1.3278 capping.
Cable broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range after the UK GDP and business investment beats and a softer dollar. It cleared Tuesday's 1.3252 high (tue high) and printed a 1.3278 session high just below the 1.3280 barrier. The 08:00 UTC pullback held a 1.3256 higher low at the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is around 70 mid-London, hot but not extreme, and ATR is near 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3252, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3256 higher low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.3252 tue high
A drop back under the 1.3234 asian high would unwind the breakout
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 60 · price 1.32553
Asian range breakout, now retesting prior high after a lower high.
The UK Q2 GDP upward revision at 06:00 UTC broke cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. London open extended the move to a 1.3278 session high, but price then printed a lower high at 1.3270. It is now retesting yesterday's 1.3252 prior high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg, with RSI(14) cooled to 60.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3278
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3246 swing low (61.8% fib near 1.3244) turns the retest into a failed breakout, exposing the 1.3234 Asian high
Recovery above the 1.3270 lower high reopens the 1.3278 session high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Breakout above Asian range and prior-day high; lower highs forming under the 1.3278 session high.
Upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions at 06:00 UTC and softer US yields lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range and through the prior-day high at 1.3252. The spike was rejected at 1.3278, just shy of the 1.3280 barrier, and early London is capping at a lower high near 1.3270 above a micro low at 1.3261, with RSI(14) cooling to about 68.
Support: 1.3261, 1.3252, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3278
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high and the 1.3280 barrier extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.3261 micro low puts the prior-day high at 1.3252, near the fib 50%, in play as a retest
A close back below the Asian high at 1.3234 unwinds the breakout
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL after breaking the Asian range and prior high.
Upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions at 06:00 UTC broke cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range and through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high. After a higher low at 1.3246, early London pushed to a 1.3278 session high, stalling just under the 1.3280 barrier, with RSI(14) near 76 and a 1.3264 micro low holding.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3252, 1.3246
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high and 1.3280 barrier opens the path to the 1.3300 round number
Loss of the 1.3264 micro low puts the 1.3252 prior high / 38.2% fib zone in play as a retest area
Close below the 1.3246 higher low breaks the intraday trendline and the HH/HL chain
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, HH/HL chain into London open.
Cable broke above the 1.3234 asian high from 05:45 UTC. The upside UK GDP revision extended the move through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high into London open, tagging a 1.3278 session high just under the 1.3280 barrier. RSI(14) near 82 is stretched and the 07:15 bar left an upper wick at the high, while the higher-low chain holds above the 06:30 swing low at 1.3246.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3252 prior high would undercut the breakout read
Failure to hold the 1.3246 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3234 asian high
Acceptance above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh impulse into London open · RSI 81 · price 1.32667
Breakout above Asian range and prior high; HH/HL chain since 04:30 UTC.
The upside UK Q2 GDP revision at 06:00 UTC sent cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range and through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high. The first hour of London printed a higher low at 1.3246 (swing low) and a new session high at 1.3267. RSI(14) near 81 marks the move as stretched, with M15 ATR roughly doubling from Asian-session levels.
Support: 1.32522, 1.32463, 1.32343
Resistance: 1.32669, 1.3300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3252 prior high would put the breakout at risk of a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3246 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the rising trendline in play
A return inside the Asian range (below the 1.3234 Asian high) negates the GDP-driven move
A close above the 1.3267 session high keeps the 1.3300 psych level in view
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pause after breakout · RSI 72 · price 1.32542
Broke above Asian range and prior-day high; now retesting the prior high.
Cable left the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range from 05:00 UTC and pushed through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high around the 06:00 UTC upward revision to UK Q2 GDP, topping at the 1.3261 session high. The first pullback held the 1.3246 pullback low, the 38.2% fib of the rally, and price is now retesting the prior high with RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3246, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3246 pullback low exposes the 1.3234 Asian high and weakens the breakout read
Clearance of the 1.3261 session high opens the path to the 1.3280 barrier
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian range breakout, now retesting the broken 1.3252 prior high.
Pre-London buying from 05:00 UTC lifted cable out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. It pushed through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high to a 1.3261 session high around the UK GDP beat, even as the digest reads USD as still firm. The first pullback held the 38.2% fib at 1.3246, but price is back under 1.3252 into London open with RSI(14) cooling to ~64.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3252, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 1.3252 prior high re-establish the breakout; rejection there turns it into a false break
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.3246 opens a retest of the 1.3234 asian high
A return inside the Asian range toward the 1.3223 asian low negates the breakout
Clearing the 1.3261 session high brings the 1.3280 barrier into view
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Sharp intraday uptrend, first pause at the high · RSI 74 · price 1.32558
Asian range broken higher, yesterday's high cleared, fresh higher high at 1.3261.
GBPUSD broke above the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range from 05:15 UTC and ran through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high at the London open, coinciding with the upbeat UK Q2 GDP revisions. Price is pausing just under the 1.3261 session high with RSI(14) near 74 and ATR near 5 pips. The 1.3252 prior high is the first test of any retracement of the rally.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3234
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3252 prior high puts price back inside yesterday's range and points to the asian high at 1.3234
A close above the 1.3261 session high opens the path to the 1.3280 barrier
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Pre-London buying broke the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range and carried through yesterday's 1.3252 prior high into the 06:00 UTC UK GDP release, printing a 1.3258 session high. The bounce comes off Tuesday's 1.3202 two-month low, keeping a rising lows line intact. RSI(14) near 76 after a seven-bar push; the fib of the Asian low–session high leg frames any pullback toward the Asian high.
Support: 1.32522, 1.32343, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32583, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3252 prior high puts price back inside Tuesday's range
M15 close above the 1.3258 session high opens the path to the 1.3280 cap cited in the digest, then the 1.3300 round number
A return below the 1.3234 Asian high erases the range break; losing the 1.3223 Asian low breaks the rising lows line
UK Q2 GDP actual not yet in feed; US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
From 05:15 UTC, ahead of the London open, price broke out of the 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range and has almost fully retraced Tuesday's slide from the 1.3252 prior high to the 1.3202 swing low. It is now pressing 1.3250 into the UK Q2 GDP release, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR at about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3234, 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3252, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3252 prior high clears Tuesday's peak; the digest's 1.3280 rebound cap is the next barrier
A slip back below the 1.3234 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low reopens the 1.3202 swing low
UK Q2 GDP final (06:00 UTC), then US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Intraday recovery from Tuesday low, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 1.32374
Asian range 1.3223–1.3234 broken higher in the hour before London open.
A push after 05:00 UTC lifted GBPUSD through the Asian high at 1.3234 to 1.3237. That clears the 61.8% of Tuesday's decline from 1.3252 to 1.3202, off a higher low at the 1.3223 Asian low versus Tuesday's 2-month low, with RSI(14) near 64. UK Q2 final GDP is printing now into a thin, 3.5-pip ATR tape.
Support: 1.3234, 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3252
What it said to watch
UK Q2 final GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.4% QoQ) can extend or unwind the Asian high break within the first London bars
M15 close back below the 1.3234 Asian high turns the move into a false break
Clearance of the 1.3245 prior high exposes the 1.3252 Tuesday high
Loss of the 1.3223 Asian low breaks the rising support line from the 1.3202 2-month low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) during NY hours are the larger volatility risk for this structure
05:46 UTC
Sideways after rebound off Tuesday low · RSI 62 · price 1.32336
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234, price testing range top.
Late Asia session has price pressing the asian high at 1.3234 for a third time. That level also marks the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's 1.3252–1.3202 slide, which came as the USD firmed on 2004-era yields; RSI(14) sits near 62. Asia has held a 1.3223–1.3234 range, and UK Q2 GDP is due at 06:00 UTC, ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.3252 tue high
Rejection at 1.3234 / 61.8% keeps the range intact; loss of the 1.3223 asian low reopens the 1.3202 tue low near the 1.3200 two-month low
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 UTC, then ADP at 12:15 UTC and US core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Flat after Tuesday's selloff · RSI 52 · price 1.32286
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234 below 61.8% fib.
Tuesday's NY session selloff from the 1.3252 prior high found a session low at 1.3202, near the 1.3200 two-month low. The rebound stalled at 1.3234, roughly the 61.8% fib of that selloff, and price has since compressed into a ~11-pip Asian range. It sits mid-range at 1.3229 into the London open with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 3 pips. The USD's rally on 2004-era yields keeps the tone heavy.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.4% QoQ) could break the Asian range at London open
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high and 61.8% fib opens 1.3252 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 session low and 1.3200
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC can materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Flat after late rebound off lows · RSI 48 · price 1.32275
Tight overnight range 1.3222–1.3234 below Tuesday's drop high.
GBPUSD has held a tight 1.3222–1.3234 range since the 18:00 UTC rebound off Tuesday's 1.3202 swing low. The range high sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3252 prior high to 1.3202 drop, and the Asian session has not tested past it. Price is mid-range on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR near 3 pips, so there is no setup in play while a firm USD on 2004-era yields keeps the swing low in focus.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.4% QoQ) lands ahead of London open and could break the range
M15 close above the 1.3234 range high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens 1.3252 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3222 range low reopens the 1.3202 swing low and the 1.3200 two-month low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3223–1.3234 capped by the NY rebound high; lower highs since 03:00 UTC.
Tuesday's NY sell-off from the 1.3252 prior high bottomed at the 1.3202 prior low as the USD tracked 2004-era yields. The rebound stalled at 1.3234, near the 61.8% fib, and a rejection there in Asia has price back on the 1.3223 asian low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) around 44 and ATR about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, just before London open, could break the asian low or asian high
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low opens a retest of the 1.3202 prior low near 1.3200
Reclaim of the 1.3234 asian high and 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 1.3252 prior high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC are the larger event risk for the NY session
04:46 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.32235
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234, lower highs since 02:45 UTC.
Late Asia session is holding a 1.3223–1.3234 range after the NY selloff from the 1.3252 session high to the 1.3202 session low, which came as the USD tracked 2004-era yields. The Asian high capped just above the 61.8% retrace of that drop, and price has faded back to the Asian low with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.32226, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.32343, 1.32522
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 session low and the 1.3200 area
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path to the 1.3252 session high
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US ADP and core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Bearish drift within a corrective bounce · RSI 44 · price 1.32254
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234 beneath a 61.8% retracement cap; lower highs in the last hour.
Yesterday's London high at 1.3252 gave way to a sell-off to the 1.3202 swing low as the USD firmed on 2004-era yields. The recovery stalled at 1.3234, the 61.8% retracement of that sell-off fib and the Asian high, and late Asia has faded back to the bottom of the 1.3223–1.3234 range with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3223 asian low breaks the range and puts the 1.3202 swing low back in play
M15 close above 1.3234 asian high clears the 61.8% cap and opens the path to the 1.3252 london high
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 UTC, just ahead of London open, could break the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Sideways after Tuesday's selloff · RSI 48 · price 1.32264
Tight Asian range capped at the 61.8% fib of Tuesday's drop.
After a yield-driven USD bid dragged the pair from the tuesday high at 1.3252 to a 1.3202 swing low, the NY rebound stalled into a 12-pip Asian range, 1.3223–1.3234. The asian high sits at the 61.8% fib of that drop and rejected again at 03:15 GMT, leaving price near the 50% level at 1.3226, just under EMA20 and flat on EMA50, ahead of London.
Support: 1.32226, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.32343, 1.32522
What it said to watch
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range before London open
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low reopens the 1.3202 swing low
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high and 61.8% fib puts the 1.3252 tuesday high back in view
US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
04:01 UTC
Flat after rebound from 1.3202 low · RSI 50 · price 1.32281
Tight Asian range below the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY drop.
The Asia session is boxed in a 1.3223–1.3234 range, capped at the 61.8% fib of the 1.3252 session high to 1.3202 swing low drop. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is only about 4 pips. The late-NY bounce off 1.3202 came as the yield-driven USD bid paused, and nothing has been added since.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high breaks the range and opens 1.3252 session high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 swing low and 1.3200 psych
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, Asian recovery capped · RSI 56 · price 1.32315
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234, price pressing range top.
USD strength on 5%+ US yields drove the NY slide from the 1.3252 day high to the 1.3202 day low. The late-NY rebound has since stalled in a 1.3223–1.3234 Asian range. Late in the Asia session, price sits under the 1.3234 asian high, where the 61.8% retrace of that drop has capped two tests.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.3252 day high
Break below the 1.3223 asian low returns focus to the 1.3202 day low and 1.3200
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, ahead of London open, could materially shift this read
US core PCE and ADP from 12:15 UTC carry the larger event risk for the NY session
03:31 UTC
Range after Tuesday selloff, mild recovery · RSI 55 · price 1.3232
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234, price pressing range top.
Late Asia session sits inside a 1.3223–1.3234 range after NY rebounded off the 1.3202 prior low. The dollar-driven selloff came on a surge in US yields. Price is testing the Asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 1.3252–1.3202 drop; RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR near 4 pips reflects thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 Asian high and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.3252 prior high
A move back below the 1.3223 Asian low exposes the 1.3202 prior low and 1.3200 psych
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 UTC, then US core PCE at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-selloff consolidation 1.3224–1.3234, Asia now testing range top.
Yesterday's USD-driven slide from the 1.3252 prior high to the 1.3202 swing low was followed by a 22-pip lift at 18:00 UTC. Since then the pair has held a tight 1.3224–1.3234 box. Asia is pressing the late-NY high at 1.3234, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the drop, with lows edging up off the 1.3224 asian low and ATR compressed near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 late-NY high / 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.3252 prior high
Failure back below the 1.3224 asian low puts the 1.3202 swing low and 1.3200 back in focus
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the compressed range
US core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Rebound off 1.3202 low, stalling in tight range · RSI 55 · price 1.32304
12-pip Asian range 1.3224–1.3234 capped near 61.8% retracement.
The dollar-led NY slide from the 1.3252 prior high found a floor at the 1.3202 swing low. A late-session spike then lifted the pair into a 1.3224–1.3234 range that has held through the Asia session. Price is pressing the range top, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of that sell-off, while RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 4 pips reflect compression ahead of UK GDP.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 range top clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the path to the 1.3252 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3224 asian low puts the 1.3202 swing low and the 1.3200 handle back in play
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT is the likely catalyst for a break of the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
GBPUSD is drifting mid-Asia inside a 1.3223–1.3233 range after the late-NY rebound off the 1.3202 NY low, set as firm US yields pressed sterling to its lowest since June. The bounce has stalled at the Asian high, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the London high-to-NY low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is compressed at about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3233 asian high and 61.8% retrace opens the path to the 1.3252 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low re-exposes the 1.3202 ny low
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT (f/c 0.4% QoQ) could break the Asian range
US core PCE later today is the larger risk to this read
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3234 at mid-point of prior drop.
Late Asia session is holding a tight 9-pip range between the asian low at 1.3223 and asian high at 1.3234. Price sits on the 50% retrace of yesterday's drop from the 1.3252 prior high to the 1.3202 swing low, which printed during NY hours as USD yields pushed higher. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and ATR(14) is compressed at about 4 pips, with price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 asian high opens the 1.3252 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 swing low near the 1.3200 two-month low
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range at London open
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC are the dominant risk to this read
02:16 UTC
Range after NY selloff, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.32275
Tight Asian range at 50% retrace of NY leg.
Mid-Asia session, price is holding a tight 1.3223–1.3233 range at the 50% retrace of yesterday's USD-driven NY selloff from the 1.3252 NY high to the 1.3202 day low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the range top, and RSI(14) is neutral near 51 with ATR compressed to about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3233 range top exposes the 1.3252 NY high
Loss of the 1.3223 Asian low reopens the 1.3202 day low and the 1.3200 area
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, then US core PCE and ADP from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
The NY-session drop from the 1.3252 ny high, driven by USD strength on 5%+ yields, bottomed at the 1.3202 ny low just above 1.3200 psych. An 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near 1.3234, and price has since held a 12-pip range between the range low at 1.3222 and the range high at 1.3234 through the Asia session. RSI(14) sits flat at 50 and ATR is near 4 pips, a pre-data lull.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 range high and 61.8% fib opens the path back toward the 1.3252 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.3222 range low exposes the 1.3202 ny low and 1.3200 psych
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT, roughly four hours out, could break the Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3232 below a lower high at 1.3234.
NY hours sold GBP from the 1.3252 session high to a 1.3202 swing low as US yields above 5% and Taylor's dovish pushback weighed. The late-NY rebound stalled at 1.3234, a lower high near the 61.8% fib. Asia session is now compressed between the 1.3222 asian low and that rebound high, pinned near the 50% retracement with ATR shrinking.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.3252 session high
Failure to hold the 1.3222 asian low (38.2% fib) reopens the 1.3202 swing low and the 1.3200 area
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC, plus month- and quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Down day stalled, sideways above 1.3200 · RSI 53 · price 1.32285
NY-low double bottom at 1.3202, bounce capped at 1.3234, tight Asian range.
GBP/USD made a 1.3202 NY low as US yields above 5% weighed on sterling. Two tests of that level formed a double bottom, and the bounce stalled at 1.3234, the 61.8% fib of the 1.3252–1.3202 drop. Early Asia session is holding a 9-pip range above the 1.3223 asian low, with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) about 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 bounce high breaks the 61.8% cap and opens the 1.3252 prior high
Loss of the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 ny low and the 1.3200 June-low area
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT (~5h) could break the Asian range
US ADP and core PCE later today (12:15/12:30 UTC) are the larger risk to this read
The Asia session is holding a tight 1.3223–1.3232 range, with the Asian low at 1.3223 as the floor. That range follows the late-NY rebound from the 1.3202 NY low, which came after USD strength on 5%+ yields drove Tuesday's slide from the 1.3252 NY high. Price sits above the fib 50% of that rebound and just under the 1.3234 rebound high, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3218, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 rebound high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.3252 NY high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 Asian low puts the fib 50% at 1.3218, then the 1.3202 NY low and 1.3200 psych, back in play
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range at the London open
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
00:46 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.32275
Tight Asian range at 50% retrace of London high–NY low leg.
GBP/USD slid from the 1.3252 London high to a 1.3202 NY low as US yields above 5% kept USD bid. An 18:00 UTC jump then lifted price to the 1.3234 spike high near the 61.8% level. Early Asia is now compressed between the 1.3223 asian low and that spike high, sitting on the 50% retrace with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 spike high opens a retest of the 1.3252 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3223 asian low exposes the 1.3202 ny low and 1.3200 psych
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range; US ADP and core PCE follow at 12:15–12:30 UTC
00:31 UTC
Flat after NY selloff, rebound stalled · RSI 42 · price 1.32252
Tight Asian range 1.3222–1.3234 above the 1.3202 day low.
The USD bid on 5%+ yields drove GBP/USD from the 1.3252 London high to a 1.3202 day low in NY. The pair recovered to 1.3234 and has since compressed into a 12-pip Asia session range between the range low at 1.3222 and the range top at 1.3234, sitting on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 42 and no setup in play.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3222 range low reopens the 1.3202 day low
M15 close above the 1.3234 range top exposes the 1.3252 london high
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT could break the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC, plus quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read
A retrace deeper than 61.8% of the NY rebound puts the day low back in focus
00:16 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, recovery stalled · RSI 48 · price 1.3229
Tight Asian range 1.3223–1.3232 inside the 1.3202–1.3252 day range.
NY session unwound the London rally from the 1.3252 prior high to a 1.3202 NY low as US yields and a firm USD pressed cable toward 1.3200. The evening rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib at 1.3234, and early Asia is holding a narrow 9-pip range above the 1.3223 Asian low with RSI(14) near 48 and EMAs flat.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 Asian low reopens the 1.3202 NY low and the 1.3200 handle
Close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3234 exposes the 1.3252 prior high
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT is the first catalyst for a break of the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, rebound stalled · RSI 55 · price 1.32286
Tight 1.3222–1.3234 range above a double bottom at the ny low.
GBPUSD slid from the 1.3252 london high to a 1.3202 ny low as US yields and a firm USD outweighed the soft JOLTS print. A second test at 1.3204 held before an 18:00 UTC spike, and price has since been boxed between the 1.3222 range low and the 1.3234 range top into early Asia. The range top sits at the 61.8% fib of the London high–NY low drop; RSI(14) ~55, ATR ~4 pips.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3234 range top and 61.8% fib opens the path back toward the 1.3252 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3222 range low exposes the 1.3202 ny low and the 1.3200 June-low area
UK Q2 GDP final at 06:00 GMT (~6h) is the next catalyst for this range
US ADP and core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC, plus month/quarter-end flows, could materially shift this read