Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3272; 1.3448-1.3503 range at the top.
Cable has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low. The post-midterm USD selloff carried it to 1.3503, but the range high has capped two tests, and GBP gave back its gains after the priced-in BoE hike. Price is now holding a 1.3448-1.3503 range just above EMA20, with the range low sitting on the rising trendline. ATR(14) near 32 pips shows a moderately expanded regime that is flattening as the range tightens, with fib 38.2 at 1.3422 the next retracement reference below.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3422, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3503, 1.3555
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3503 range high opens the path toward the 1.3555 ext zone
H4 close below the 1.3448 range low and the rising trendline would print the first lower low since 1.3272, exposing fib 38.2 at 1.3422
Loss of the 1.3396 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the uptrend read
US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Bailey on Mon 9 Nov is the next GBP-side risk
Higher lows since 1.3272; two failed tests of 1.3503.
Higher-low structure is intact since the 1.3272 swing low, with the rising trendline holding. The broad USD sell-off after the US midterms broke price out of the 1.3400-1.3432 consolidation, leaving the range top as the first shelf below. Supply has capped two pushes at the 1.3500-1.3503 swing high, and the BoE's 9-0 hike failed to extend gains. The dip to the 1.3448 swing low held near the 23.6% retracement and the trendline, with price back above both EMAs and ATR(14) steady around 34 pips.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3415
Resistance: 1.3503, 1.3600
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.3503 swing high opens the path toward the 1.3600 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3448 swing low and the higher-low trendline would complete a double-top shape and expose the range top at 1.3432, then the fib 38.2 near 1.3415
US NFP Fri 6 Nov 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Bailey speaks Mon 9 Nov 17:25 UTC; UK Q3 GDP Thu 12 Nov 07:00 UTC
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.3500 · RSI 59 · price 1.34618
Higher lows since late-Oct base, twin rejection at 7-week high.
Cable has built higher lows off the 1.3272 base, rising from the 1.3396 swing low into a breakout on post-midterm USD weakness. The rally has stalled at the 7-week high near 1.3503, with two rejections there, while the 9-0 BoE hike to 4% was priced and drew a muted response. Price is pulling back toward the 1.3448 pullback low, which sits near the rising trendline and the 23.6% retrace of the rally fib. ATR(14) near 31 pips is above the late-October regime, so swings are expanding rather than compressing.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3415, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3503
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3448 pullback low and the rising trendline would mark the first lower low and turn the 1.3500 rejections into a double-top read
A break of the 1.3448 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3415, then the 1.3396 swing low
H4 close above the 7-week high at 1.3503 would resume the higher-high sequence
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Bailey speech Mon 17:25 GMT is the next GBP-side risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 oct low; twin tests of 1.3503.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3272 oct low. Price broke out of the 1.3396-1.3430 range low/cap consolidation on the USD slide after the US election, and the swing high at 1.3503 has now capped two tests, with the latest bar rejected back toward the rising trendline and the 1.3454 swing low. ATR(14) has expanded to about 30 pips on the breakout leg. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, and the 38.2% fib of the oct low to 1.3503 swing sits near 1.3415.
Support: 1.3454, 1.3396, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3503
What it said to watch
BoE decision at 12:00 GMT (25bp hike to 4% priced, 7-2 vote expected) plus the Bailey presser could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 1.3503 swing high extends the higher-high sequence
Close below the 1.3454 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and turns the 1.3500 tests into a stalled top
Loss of the 1.3396 range low would negate the breakout and expose the 38.2% fib area and the oct low
Friday US NFP (f/c 65K) is the next USD-side risk to the read
Higher-low sequence from 1.3272; consolidation broken, now holding below 1.3503.
Cable has printed higher highs and higher lows since the late-October low at 1.3272. A rising higher-low trendline has held each dip, and the early-week break above the 1.3396–1.3432 consolidation (range top near 1.3410) extended to a 7-week high at 1.3503 as the USD sold off after the midterms. The pullback to the 1.3454 swing low held, and price is back pressing 1.3495 with EMA20 above EMA50, RSI near 70 and ATR(14) around 28 pips, moderately expanded rather than compressing.
Support: 1.3454, 1.3410, 1.3388
Resistance: 1.3503, 1.3550
What it said to watch
BoE decision, vote split and MPR at 12:00 UTC today, with Bailey at 12:30, could materially shift this read; a softer split than 7-2 risks an unwind toward the range top
An H4 close above the 1.3503 7-week high opens the path toward the 1.3550 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3454 swing low breaks the latest higher low and exposes 1.3410
A loss of 1.3410 brings the 50% fib of the late-October advance at 1.3388 and the higher-low trendline into play
US Nonfarm Payrolls Friday 13:30 UTC is the next USD-side catalyst for the trend
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3272 swing low.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3272 swing low, with successive lows at 1.3374, 1.3396 and the 1.3454 pullback low, all above a rising trendline. Price broke out of the 1.3396–1.3448 range floor-to-ceiling band midweek as USD sold off after the midterm result, then stalled at the 1.3503 swing high. ATR has expanded to roughly 31 pips on the breakout leg, and price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain stacked in the same direction.
Support: 1.3454, 1.3415, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3503, 1.3600
What it said to watch
BoE decision, vote split and MPR in ~10h could materially shift this read; the hike itself is priced, so the guidance carries the risk
H4 close above the 1.3503 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the path toward the 1.3600 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3454 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3415 and the range floor near 1.3396
A close below the rising trendline would break the higher-low structure
US NFP Friday is a second catalyst for the USD leg that drove the breakout