Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 late-October low; breakout above the 1.3448 prior high.
Since the 1.3272 low, the pair has built a clean higher-low sequence. It spent several days in a 1.3396-1.3448 range before breaking through the 1.3448 prior high on the post-midterm USD selloff. The break tagged 1.3503 and price has since eased back toward 1.3468, with EMA20 holding above EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 28 pips from the low-20s during the range, consistent with a trend-extension phase rather than compression. Softer UK services PMI finals left little mark on the chart, which reflects the digest's read that the move is USD-led.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3415, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3503
What it said to watch
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT, vote split vs 7-2 and Bailey's guidance, could materially shift this read
H4 close back below the 1.3448 prior high would flag the breakout as a false break and expose the 38.2% fib at 1.3415
Failure to hold the 1.3396 range low and the higher-low trendline would break the swing structure
H4 close above the 1.3503 swing high and the 1.3500 psych level extends the higher-high sequence
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC; a strong print could unwind the USD-led leg
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending after range break · RSI 66 · price 1.34713
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3272 swing low. The pair spent several sessions in consolidation between the 1.3400 range floor and the 1.3433 prior high, then broke out on USD weakness after the US midterms and printed a 7-week swing high at 1.3503. Price is now holding just under the 1.3480 pivot, with ATR(14) near 28 pips and expanding off the compression lows. The EMA20 sits above the EMA50 and price trades above both.
Support: 1.3462, 1.3433, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3480, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3462 pullback low puts a retest of the 1.3433 prior high in play, near the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 1.3503 swing high extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3400 range floor and the higher-lows trendline breaks the swing structure
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 GMT could materially shift this read, given the sell-the-fact risk
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC is the next USD driver
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending into overbought · RSI 72 · price 1.34844
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low; breakout above the 1.3448 prior high.
Higher-low structure intact since the 1.3272 swing low. Price broke out of the 1.3400–1.3448 consolidation and is pressing the 1.3500 round number at 7-week highs, carried by the post-midterm USD slump rather than UK data, with today's soft UK PMIs barely registering. ATR(14) has expanded to about 30 pips out of that compression, and RSI near 72 marks the move as overbought, with EMA20 well clear of EMA50.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3400, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3500
What it said to watch
Repeated H4 closes capped at the 1.3500 round number would mark a stall at resistance; a close above 1.3510 extends the breakout
A close back below the 1.3448 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the range low at 1.3400 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3374 swing low, near the 50% rally fib, breaks the higher-lows trendline structure
US ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could swing USD, and with it this read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: vote split and rate-path guidance could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low.
Higher-low structure has held since the late-October 1.3272 swing low. Lows have stepped up through 1.3374 and 1.3396, and the multi-day 1.3400-1.3433 range resolved higher on Tuesday as the USD slumped after the Democratic Congress sweep. Price is now pressing the 1.3485 window high just below the 1.3500 round number, with RSI overbought and price well above both EMAs. ATR(14) near 30 pips reflects a measured rather than expanding advance.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3433, 1.3404
Resistance: 1.3485, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3433 range top would turn Tuesday's breakout into a false break
Holding 1.3448, the prior high, on any dip would confirm it as a retest; a break below it points to the range top
Failure to hold the rising lows trendline near 1.3410 and the fib 38.2 at 1.3404 would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.3485 window high and 1.3500 round number extends the swing; rejection there leaves an overbought stall
US ADP and ISM Services today, then the BoE decision Thursday 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low.
GBPUSD has printed higher lows at 1.3272, the 1.3374 swing low and the 1.3396 range low, with the latest bar clearing the 1.3448 prior high to close near the 1.3479 window high. The move came as USD slumped on the Democratic midterm sweep and broke a multi-day consolidation, with ATR expanding and RSI near 73 in overbought territory. Price holds above a rising EMA20 and EMA50; the 1.3500 round number is the next reference above, and the rally fib's 38.2% sits near 1.3400.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3396, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3479, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3448 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3396 range low would break the higher-lows trendline and the rising swing sequence
Clearance of the 1.3479 window high leaves the 1.3500 round number as the next test
US ADP and ISM Services today could trigger a USD relief bounce against the election move
BoE decision and vote split on Thu Nov 5 at 12:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows since late-Oct low, coiling under range top.
Higher lows are stacked from the 1.3272 late-October low through the 1.3374 swing low and the 1.3396 higher low. Price is pressing the 1.3435 range top for a fourth time, just below Monday's 1.3448 6wk high, which came on USD weakness as oil fell. ATR(14) has contracted to about 24 pips and price holds above both EMAs, a compressed state ahead of Thursday's BoE decision, with the 50% fib of the October impulse at 1.3360 as deeper reference.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3374, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.3448, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3448 6wk high breaks the week-long cap and opens the 1.3500 round number
Loss of the 1.3396 higher low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low sequence; the 1.3374 swing low is next
Break below 1.3374 exposes the 50% fib at 1.3360 and undermines the impulse structure
BoE Thu 12:00 UTC (25bp hike f/c, vote 7-2 f/c) and Bailey at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight, plus ADP and ISM Services Wed, drive the USD leg into the range top