Higher lows since 1.3272; tight range 1.3396-1.3433 under 1.3448.
The rally off the 1.3272 low took out the prior 1.3419 high and printed a 6-wk high at 1.3448. ING ties that leg mainly to USD weakness on the oil rout. Since then price has compressed into a narrow range between a 1.3396 range base and a 1.3433 range top, with a slight lower-highs line off the peak and a rising higher-lows line from 1.3296 converging on current price. ATR(14) has eased to about 25 pips from the 30-40 pip expansion phase, and price holds above both EMAs after the EMA20 crossed above the EMA50 during the rally.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3374, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3433 range top and the 1.3448 6-wk high extends the higher-high sequence and breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the 1.3396 range base and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.3374 swing low, then the rally fib 50% retracement near 1.3360
US midterm results overnight: a Senate flip is the scenario the digest flags for a USD dip
BoE decision Thu 05 Nov 12:00 UTC: the vote split versus the 7-2 forecast could resolve the compression either way
ADP and ISM Services Wed, then jobless claims Thu, as further USD catalysts
Higher lows from 1.3272, tight consolidation under 1.3448.
The swing low at 1.3272 started higher highs and higher lows, through the prior high at 1.3434 to a six-week high at 1.3448. The weaker USD and lower oil drove most of that move. Since then price has compressed between the 1.3396 higher low and a short run of lower highs, holding above both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about 25 pips, a coiling range heading into the event risk later this week.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3374, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3448 six-week high breaks the consolidation to the upside; the lower-highs line from that peak caps the range until then
Failure to hold the 1.3396 higher low exposes the 1.3374 swing low, then the 1.3360 fib 50% of the 1.3272-1.3448 leg
BoE decision Thu 5 Nov 12:00 UTC (25bp hike to 4% priced, 7-2 vote expected) could materially shift this read, especially on the vote split or guidance
US midterm results tonight and Wed ADP / ISM Services could move the USD side before the BoE
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low; tight consolidation under 1.3448.
The rebound from the 1.3272 swing low has made higher highs and a higher low at 1.3374, peaking at the six-wk high of 1.3448 on Monday. ING frames that leg as mostly USD-driven on the oil sell-off. Price has since compressed between lower highs from 1.3448 and rising lows above the 1.3396 range floor, still above both EMAs. ATR(14) has eased to about 25 pips, and RSI near 58 shows momentum cooling rather than reversing.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3374, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3434 prior high and 1.3448 six-wk high breaks the consolidation to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.3396 range floor exposes the 1.3374 higher low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3381
Loss of 1.3374 would break the higher-low sequence off the 1.3272 swing low
US midterm results tonight and the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC (hike to 4% priced; vote split key) could materially shift this read
ATR compression between the lower highs and rising lows suggests a range expansion is building into the event risk
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the swing high · RSI 60 · price 1.34212
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low; tight consolidation under 1.3448.
Higher-high, higher-low structure has held since the 1.3272 swing low. The rally reached a 1.3448 swing high, helped by sterling strength after the Autumn Forecast Statement and a softer USD as oil slid. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3396-1.3434 band, holding above the 23.6% fib, with the recent lows near 1.3396 and the rising trendline off the swing low underneath. ATR(14) near 25 pips is contracting into Thursday's BoE decision.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3374, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3448 swing high extends the higher-high sequence; the 1.3434 prior high is the first cap
Failure to hold the recent lows at 1.3396 exposes the 1.3374 higher low and the rising trendline
A break below the 1.3374 higher low ends the higher-low sequence and brings the 38.2% fib near 1.3381 into view
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT (25bp hike to 4% priced, 7-2 vote f/c); the vote split and Bailey's guidance could materially shift this read
US midterm results and US jobs data Fri are the USD-side risk to the structure
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3272 swing low; tight consolidation under 1.3448.
Cable has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low. The post-Budget sterling bid and a softer USD on falling oil carried it through the 1.3434 prior high to a 1.3448 six-week high, which was rejected straight away. Since then price has held a tight band above the 1.3400 round number, ATR(14) is easing toward the low end of the window's range, and EMA20 sits above EMA50. That reads as compression ahead of event risk, with the 1.3360 fib 50% of the rally underneath.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3374, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3448 six-week high extends the higher-high sequence; failure again at the 1.3434 prior high keeps the consolidation intact
Loss of the 1.3374 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3360 fib 50%
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: a vote split away from the priced 7-2 could materially shift this read
US midterm results and JOLTS today could move the USD leg of the pair
Higher highs and higher lows since 1.3272 swing low; pullback onto rising trendline.
Cable has carved higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 window low. The leg was fuelled by the post-Budget gilt rally and a softer, oil-led USD, and it cleared the oct high near 1.3419 and the prior high at 1.3434 to print a week high at 1.3448. Price has since eased back to 1.3403, flat against EMA20 and sitting on the rising trendline from the late-October low, near the 23.6% retracement of that impulse. ATR(14) has cooled to about 26 pips from the expansion phase, pointing to a pause rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3330, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the rising trendline and the 1.3374 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.3330 pivot zone
Reclaim of the 1.3419 oct high and a close above the 1.3448 week high extends the higher-high structure
US midterms and JOLTS today could materially shift this read via the USD
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT (f/c hike to 4%, 7-2): vote split and guidance decide whether 1.3434-1.3448 caps or gives way
A break below 1.3330 pivot zone would put the 1.3272 window low back in play