Monday's London push to the 1.3448 week high was rejected within two hours. Since then price has held a 1.3396–1.3432 range, with Tuesday's NY rally stalling at a lower high near 1.3432 as firm US JOLTS and factory orders trimmed USD losses. The pair now sits just under the H1 ema20 (~1.3415) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44, and the range low aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday rally.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3415, 1.3432, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3396 range low exposes the 1.3385 weekly open and the 1.3374 Friday low
Acceptance above the 1.3432 Tuesday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.3448 week high
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 1.3415 keeps price pinned to the lower half of the range
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP/ISM Services could shift the read ahead of Thursday's 12:00 UTC BoE decision
Contracting range below week high after Thu-Mon impulse.
GBPUSD ran from 1.3296 on Thursday to a week high of 1.3448 in Monday's London session on broad USD weakness. It has since compressed between lower highs and higher lows, holding the 23.6% retracement of the Thu-Mon impulse. Tuesday's NY push to the tuesday high at 1.3432 faded after the 7.5M JOLTS beat, leaving price pinned between EMA(20) near 1.3416 and the ema50 near 1.3410, with RSI(14) flat around 48, while the tuesday low at 1.3396 held in Asia above the 38.2% level and the week low at 1.3379.
Support: 1.3410, 1.33959, 1.33789
Resistance: 1.34324, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and tuesday high 1.3432 reopens the week high at 1.3448
Failure to hold the tuesday low 1.3396 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the week low 1.3379
H1 closes back below the ema50 near 1.3410 would shift the range toward its lower half
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read; ADP and ISM Services follow Wednesday
BoE decision Thursday 12:00 UTC is the next GBP-specific catalyst for the range
Compression: higher lows under lower highs below the 1.3448 week high.
GBPUSD has climbed about 150 pips from Thursday's 1.3296 swing low. Thursday's NY-session surge and Monday's London spike to the 1.3448 week high did most of the work, as USD slid with the oil rout. Since that rejection the pair has compressed: a lower high at the Tuesday high of 1.3432 faded after the JOLTS beat, while the Tuesday low of 1.3396 marks a higher low above the weekly open, leaving price sitting on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) parked near 51.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3372
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Tuesday low 1.3396 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the weekly open 1.3385, then the fib 50% at 1.3372
H1 close above the Tuesday high 1.3432 ends the lower-highs sequence and brings the 1.3448 week high back into play
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight are the next catalyst for a break of this compression
Wed ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Impulse from 1.3296 then lower highs and higher lows in a 1.3396–1.3448 band.
The leg from Thursday's 1.3296 low peaked at 1.3448, the week high, in Monday's London session. That move came on a broad USD selloff as oil plunged, and price was rejected straight back to the 1.3400 area. Since then H1 has compressed between lower highs (1.3448, then today's NY Tuesday high at 1.3432 that faded after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats) and rising lows at the 1.3396 range low. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.3415 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) holding the 55–60 zone. Pullbacks have stayed shallow, above the 38.2% of the Thu–Mon impulse near 1.3390.
Support: 1.3415, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3432, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3448 week high breaks the lower-highs line and resolves the compression higher
Failure to hold the 1.3396 range low and the rising-lows line exposes the weekly open at 1.3385 and the 38.2% fib
Hourly closes back below EMA(20) at 1.3415 would show the Tuesday high rejection extending
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight could move USD before the London open
ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, then the BoE decision Thursday 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Range 1.3396–1.3448 with lower highs and rising lows.
The Thursday-to-Monday rally from 1.3296 peaked at the 1.3448 week high in Monday's London session, as the oil plunge on US-Iran diplomacy hopes knocked the USD. Since then GBPUSD has compressed into a range above the 1.3398 range floor. The Tuesday high at 1.3433 matched Friday's cap, and the JOLTS beat triggered a rejection there in NY hours. Price is back above the ema20 near 1.3415, with RSI(14) around 57, and the shallow pullback has held well above the 38.2% retracement of the rally.
Support: 1.3415, 1.3398, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3433 tue high and the 1.3448 week high breaks the lower-highs line and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.3398 range floor confirms a break of the rising lows and exposes the weekly open at 1.3385, near the 38.2% rally fib
Loss of the ema20 at 1.3415 would mark a third failed push at the tue high
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
Wed ADP and ISM Services, then Thursday's BoE decision and vote split, are the next volatility catalysts
Post-impulse range 1.3396-1.3432 with a lower high Tuesday.
The impulse ran from last Wednesday's post-FOMC low at 1.3288 to a week high of 1.3448 in Monday's London session, driven mainly by a softer USD as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes. Since then the pair has compressed between the Tuesday low at 1.3396 and Tuesday's NY-session high at 1.3432. That high sits below Monday's peak and extends a line of lower highs, while the higher lows from Friday's 1.3374 still hold. Price is oscillating around a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, and the pullback has stalled between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements; firm US JOLTS and Factory Orders data trimmed the USD's earlier losses today.
Support: 1.33959, 1.33852, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.34324, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3432 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3448 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3396 tuesday low and the higher lows line exposes the weekly open at 1.3385 and the 38.2% retracement
A break of the friday low at 1.3374 would mark a deeper retracement of the impulse
US midterm results tonight, then ADP and ISM Services Wednesday, could shift the USD side before the BoE
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC; the vote split versus the 7-2 consensus is the main GBP-side risk to the range
Consolidation below week high, higher lows vs lower highs.
The rally from 1.3288 began in Thursday's NY session. It extended into Monday's London high at 1.3448, the week high, as falling oil dragged the USD lower. Since then the pair has compressed between higher lows (1.3374, 1.3379, 1.3396 asia low) and a lower high at 1.3433, which also lines up with Friday's top. Price is pinned to EMA(20) and RSI(14) sits flat near 50, while dips keep holding around the 23.6% retracement of the rally. Tuesday's NY push faded back to the 1.3407 ny low after the JOLTS and factory orders beats.
Support: 1.3407, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3433 lower high and 1.3448 week high breaks the consolidation to the upside
Failure to hold the 1.3396 asia low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.3385 weekly open
Loss of the 1.3407 ny low puts price back below EMA(20) and the 23.6% rally retracement
US midterm results overnight (from ~23:00 UTC) could produce a two-way USD move that resolves the range
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC; the vote split versus the priced 7-2 is the main event risk for the week high
Higher lows pressing into 1.3433–1.3448 resistance.
Cable is holding most of the Thursday–Monday rally from 1.3288. Monday's 1.3448 week high printed at the London open as the USD slid with oil, and since then price has compressed between that high and the 1.3396 day low, carving higher lows. In today's NY session price pushed back above ema20 to retest the 1.3433 friday high despite firm JOLTS and Factory Orders, with RSI(14) near 64 showing no divergence and ATR(14) around 13 pips reflecting the narrowing range into the US midterms.
Support: 1.3415, 1.33959, 1.33852
Resistance: 1.34336, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3433 friday high puts the 1.3448 week high back in play
A break of the higher-lows line and the 1.3396 day low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.3385 weekly open, near the 38.2% of the rally fib
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight and Thursday's BoE decision at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3448 against higher lows from 1.3396, a pennant after the Thu–Mon impulse.
The impulse started in Thursday's NY session from 1.3300, after the soft US GDP price index. It extended to the week high at 1.3448 at Monday's London open, a move the digest ties to USD weakness from the oil sell-off. Since then the range has compressed. Highs at 1.3431 and 1.3431 sit below the week high, while the Asian-session Tue low at 1.3396 held near the 38.2% retracement. Price is back above EMA(20) at 1.3413, RSI(14) is mid-50s and ATR has contracted to about 12 pips. The range top at 1.3431 capped the latest NY-hours push.
Support: 1.3413, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3431 range top breaks the pennant and puts the 1.3448 week high back in play
Loss of the 1.3396 Tue low and the weekly open at 1.3385 breaks the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% fib
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from about 23:00 UTC tonight could resolve the compression either way
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the larger event risk for the week
From the 1.3385 week open, Monday's London session drove the spike to the 1.3448 week high, an extension of the late-October impulse that the digest ties mainly to USD weakness on the oil slide. Rejection there produced lower highs at 1.3431 and the 1.3426 Tue high, while dips have held the 1.3400 range floor, with the Tue low at 1.3396 sitting just above the 38.2% fib of the up-move. Price is pinned on a flat EMA(20) and RSI(14) is near 51 as midterm caution keeps the range tight.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33959, 1.33852
Resistance: 1.34261, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3426 Tue high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3448 week high
Break of the 1.3400 range floor and the 1.3396 Tue low exposes the 1.3385 week open and the 38.2% fib
Higher-lows line from Friday's 1.3374 low: a break below it ends the sequence of rising swing lows
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could break the range
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: vote split and guidance are the main GBP-side risk to this read
Pennant: lower highs from 1.3448, higher lows from 1.3379.
Thursday's NY-session impulse from 1.3296 carried into a London-open push to the 1.3448 week high on Monday, driven mainly by a softer USD as oil slid. That spike reversed and price has since compressed into a 1.3396–1.3426 band of lower highs and higher lows. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 1.3410 with RSI(14) flat around 50, and the pullback has held above the 38.2% retracement of the impulse, with the Friday low at 1.3374 sitting near the 50% level.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3426 lower high breaks the pennant higher and brings the 1.3434 Friday high and 1.3448 week high back into view
Loss of the 1.3396 Asia low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3385 weekly open, then the 1.3374 Friday low near the 50% retracement
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and midterm results overnight could resolve the coil via the USD side
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 UTC is the main GBP-specific risk to this structure
Compression: lower highs from 1.3448 against rising higher lows.
The 1.3301 to 1.3448 impulse peaked in Monday's London open, when the dollar slid with oil on US-Iran diplomacy hopes. It reversed the same morning and has since printed lower highs at 1.3431 and today's 1.3426. Higher lows at the 1.3374 Friday low, 1.3379 near the weekly open and today's 1.3396 Asian low have compressed price into a narrowing range, holding above the 38.2% fib retracement around 1.3392. Price is hugging a flattening EMA(20) near 1.3411, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s with no divergence.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3426 lower high and the falling lower-highs line reopens the 1.3433 Friday high and 1.3448 week high
Break below the 1.3396 Asian low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.3385 weekly open and 1.3374 Friday low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and midterm results Wed morning could break the compression
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: vote split vs the 7-2 forecast is the main structural risk for this range
Contracting range: lower highs vs higher lows since Monday.
Monday's London-session spike to the 1.3448 week high came on broad USD weakness as oil slid on US-Iran diplomacy hopes. It was rejected within the hour and has since compressed into lower highs (1.3431, then the 1.3426 Tuesday high) against higher lows (1.3379, then Tuesday's 1.3396 Asia low), well above the 1.3385 week open. Price is holding just above EMA(20) near 1.3412 with RSI(14) around 55. Pullbacks are stalling near the 23.6% retracement of the Wed-Mon impulse, so momentum is flat rather than fading.
Support: 1.3412, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3426 Tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.3434 Friday high and 1.3448 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3396 Asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3385 week open near the 38.2% retracement
US JOLTS today 15:00 UTC and midterm results overnight could set the USD tone inside this range
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT (hike to 4% fully priced; vote split and guidance) could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; compressing range below 1.3448.
The advance from Wednesday's 1.3274 low topped at the 1.3448 week high in Monday's London open, driven by a weaker USD as oil slid on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, then faded. Since then H1 has compressed, with a lower high at 1.3431 and today's high at 1.3426 set against higher lows. The latest higher low is today's 1.3396 Asian low, which held above the 38.2% retrace of the advance. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.3411 in London trade, RSI(14) sits mid-50s, and the weekly open at 1.3385 sits below as the base of this week's structure.
Support: 1.3411, 1.33959, 1.33852
Resistance: 1.34261, 1.34309, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-low trendline and the 1.3396 Asian low would expose the 1.3385 weekly open and the 38.2% retrace near 1.3382
H1 close above 1.3426 today high and the lower-high line breaks the compression, with the 1.3448 week high next
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results overnight could shift the USD leg of the pair
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT is the larger catalyst for resolving the range
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling below the week high · RSI 59 · price 1.34211
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight range under 1.3448.
GBPUSD has printed higher lows since Wednesday. London drove the push through the Friday high to the 1.3448 week high on Monday, as oil-led USD weakness extended, but the move met rejection and faded into NY hours. Since then the pair has compressed in a 1.3396–1.3431 band around EMA(20) at 1.3411. Tuesday's Asia-session low held above the higher-low trendline, and RSI(14) has recovered to 59 from the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3411, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the tuesday low at 1.3396 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the weekly open at 1.3385
Acceptance above the friday high at 1.3434 reopens the week high at 1.3448
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and US midterm results Wednesday morning could reset the USD side of the read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT: a vote split away from 7-2 could materially shift this structure
Daily higher lows since Thursday; compression under Monday's peak.
GBPUSD has set a higher low every day since Thursday's NY-session rally after the soft US GDP price index. Monday's London push to the 1.3448 week high came as oil-led USD weakness deepened. Since that peak, price has compressed between a run of lower highs and the 1.3396 tuesday low, with the rising trendline from Thursday's low near 1.3400 keeping the pullback to roughly a 23.6% retrace of the Thursday–Monday leg, while price holds marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3372
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3396 tuesday low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3385 weekly open
Failure at the weekly open opens the 50% fib of the Thursday–Monday leg at 1.3372, near Friday's low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3434 friday high reopens the 1.3448 week high
US midterm results overnight, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and the BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact since Wednesday; pennant compressing under 1.3448.
Higher highs and higher lows carried GBPUSD from Wednesday's 1.3272 base to a 1.3448 week high in Monday's London session, a leg the digest ties to oil-driven USD weakness rather than UK news. A rejection at 1.3448 retraced to 1.3401 within two hours, and price has since compressed into a pennant between lower highs and the Asia low at 1.3396, which sits above Monday's 1.3379 low. Price is holding near the fib 23.6% (1.3407) of the rally, hugging a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) parked near 49.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3417, 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3396 asia low and pennant support exposes the 1.3385 week open and the 1.3374 prior low
Close above the 1.3417 asia high and pennant top reopens the 1.3431 prior high and the 1.3448 week high
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and incoming US midterm results could break the pennant during NY hours
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT: vote split vs the 7-2 forecast could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling below the week high · RSI 46 · price 1.34083
Higher lows since Wednesday, lower highs since Monday's 1.3448 peak.
Cable extended its higher-lows sequence from Wednesday's 1.3272 base to a six-week high at 1.3448 in Monday's London morning, as the oil slump on US-Iran deal hopes dragged the USD lower. A sharp rejection at that week high followed, and each bounce since has printed a lower high. Price is now compressed in a 1.3396–1.3416 band around the 23.6% fib of the week rally, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and price pinned to EMA(20); the weekly open at 1.3385 and the week low at 1.3379 sit beside the 38.2% retracement below.
Support: 1.33959, 1.33852, 1.33789
Resistance: 1.34156, 1.34336, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Tuesday low at 1.3396 exposes the weekly open at 1.3385 and the week low at 1.3379, which coincide with the 38.2% fib
H1 close above the 1.3416 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the Friday high at 1.3434 and the week high at 1.3448 back into view
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and overnight midterm results could shift the USD tone that drove Monday's spike
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: a vote split away from the 7-2 forecast is the main GBP risk to this compression
05:02 UTC
Uptrend from the 1.3272 low, pausing below the week high · RSI 50 · price 1.3409
Higher lows intact; lower highs since Monday's 1.3448 peak compressing price near EMA(20).
Monday's London open drove cable from the weekly open to a 1.3448 week high as oil-led USD selling took hold, extending the higher-low sequence from last Wednesday's 1.3272 low. Since then a run of lower highs has capped price, and the pullback is holding the 23.6% fib of the rally, with the Asian low at 1.3396 above the weekly open. Price sits on EMA(20) near 1.3407 with RSI(14) flat around 50, a pause rather than a reversal so far, with the 38.2% fib near 1.3381 aligning with the 1.3379 swing low.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3379
Resistance: 1.3416, 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.3396 Asian low breaks the rising support from Monday's low and exposes the weekly open at 1.3385 and the 1.3379 swing low.
An H1 close above the 1.3416 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.3434 prior high and the 1.3448 week high back into view.
US midterm results through Asia/London, and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, could shift the USD leg of this read.
The BoE decision on Thursday (vote split, guidance) is the main GBP-side risk to the consolidation.
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 43 · price 1.34026
Higher highs/lows Wed–Mon; lower highs since Monday's 1.3448 peak.
The Wednesday-to-Monday rally off 1.3272 built steady higher highs and higher lows. It peaked in Monday's London session at 1.3448, a six-week high, as sliding oil dragged the USD lower. Sellers rejected that week high quickly, and price has since printed a run of lower highs, now pressing the 1.3400 round number below EMA(20) near 1.3409. RSI(14) at 43 is mid-range, and the 38.2% retracement near 1.3381 lines up with the week open at 1.3385 and the weekly low at 1.3379.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33852, 1.33789
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.34309, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close below today's 1.3396 Asian low puts the week open at 1.3385 and the weekly low at 1.3379 in play; a break there ends the higher-lows sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) and the lower-highs line, then through the 1.3431 lower high, reopens the 1.3448 week high
US midterm results flowing through today and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift this read; BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the larger GBP risk
Lower highs since Monday's peak on a flat 1.3400 base.
Cable ran about 175 pips from Wednesday's London-open low at 1.3272. The leg built through the FOMC session and Thursday's NY breakout, then printed a six-week week high at 1.3448 in Monday's London session as the crude slump dragged the USD lower. That high was rejected within the hour. Monday's ny high at 1.3431 started a run of lower highs, and price has slipped under the ema20 near 1.3407 with RSI(14) easing to the low 40s. Price is pinned on psych 1.34, which has held through the Monday London and Tuesday Asian lows, with EMA(50) flat alongside.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below psych 1.34 exposes the weekly open at 1.3385, the 38.2% fib near 1.3381 and the friday low at 1.3374
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3407 and then the ny high at 1.3431 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.3448 week high back in focus
US midterm results today and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Qeshm strike headlines via oil have been the main USD driver and can override the range
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight 1.3400-1.3430 range after Monday's London peak.
Cable has printed higher lows from Wednesday's 1.3272 and extended to a 1.3448 week high in Monday's London session, as oil-led USD weakness on US-Iran deal hopes did the lifting. Since then the pair has faded into a 1.3400-1.3430 range, capped by the prior high near 1.3431 and now slipping just under ema20. The Asian dip found the 1.3400 round number, which also lines up with the rising trendline and the 23.6% level of the rally fib.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33852, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.3412, 1.3431, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3400 round number and rising trendline would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 1.3385 weekly open, then the 1.3374 friday low
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.3431 prior high would put the 1.3448 week high back in play
US midterm results plus JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE decision Thursday 12:00 GMT, where vote split and guidance are the swing factor for GBP
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight 1.3400–1.3431 range after Monday's spike.
Cable has built higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3272 post-FOMC low. The dominant legs came in Thursday's NY session and at Monday's London open, the latter spiking to a 1.3448 week high as oil-led USD weakness weighed on the dollar before fading through late London. Price has since compressed between the 1.3400 range low and Monday's 1.3431 NY high, pinned on a flat EMA(20) near 1.3409 and the 23.6% level of the week rally fib, with RSI(14) parked around 50 and the rising support line from Wednesday's lows being probed near 1.3403.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3379
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3400 range low breaks the rising support line and exposes the monday low at 1.3379, where the 38.2% of the week rally fib sits
H1 close above the 1.3431 NY high reopens the 1.3448 week high
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE decision Thursday at 12:00 GMT is the larger event risk for the current range
Higher lows intact; post-spike range 1.3401-1.3431.
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3272 base carried into Monday's London-morning spike to the 1.3448 week high as the USD slid with crude, but the push through Friday's 1.3433 prior high was rejected within the hour and price fell back to the 1.3401 pullback low. Since then H1 has compressed between 1.3401 and 1.3431, now slipping just under the EMA20 near 1.3409 with RSI(14) flat at 50. Price is sitting on the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Monday advance, while the 38.2% level lines up with the swing low zone near 1.3374-1.3381.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3401 pullback low exposes the higher-lows trendline near 1.3398 and the 1.3385 weekly open
H1 close back above the 1.3433 prior high reopens the 1.3448 week high and cancels the rejection read
A break of the 1.3374 swing low (Friday and Monday lows, 38.2% zone) would end this week's higher-low sequence
Overnight US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift the USD side of the read before BoE Super Thursday at 12:00 GMT