Breakout from the 1.3400–1.3448 Mon–Tue range, now basing between 1.3454 and 1.3476.
GBP/USD spent Monday and Tuesday in a 1.3400–1.3448 range. It broke higher late in Tuesday's NY session on the broad USD selloff after the US midterm result, and London extended the move to a 1.3503 week high. The ADP beat helped the dollar pare losses into NY hours, and price faded to 1.3454, the 50% fib of the breakout leg. Since then, lower highs near 1.3476 have capped the rebound, and price is flattening on the ema20 with RSI(14) easing back into the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3466, 1.3454, 1.3448
Resistance: 1.3476, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3454 50% fib would mark a deeper retracement of the breakout leg
A return below the 1.3448 monday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearing the 1.3476 lower highs and the 1.3503 week high would resume the uptrend structure
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC and Bailey at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hike is priced, so the guidance carries the risk
US NFP on Friday; the GBP move is largely USD-driven
Range break Wednesday, higher low at 1.3454 after NY fade from week high.
GBP/USD rotated inside a 1.3379–1.3448 band from Friday through Tuesday. It cleared the range top in Wednesday's Asia session as USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep, and the leg ran to a 1.3503 week high at the NY open. The NY fade held a swing low at 1.3454, the 50% retracement of the Wednesday impulse and just above the 1.3448 range top, with price now sitting on EMA(20) near 1.3466 beneath a 1.3477 bounce cap and RSI(14) cooled from ~73 to ~55.
Support: 1.3466, 1.3454, 1.3448
Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3454 swing low and back under the 1.3448 range top would return price to the prior range and undercut the breakout read
Acceptance above the 1.3503 week high and 1.3500 psych level extends the higher-high sequence; repeated stalls at the 1.3477 bounce cap keep the pause in place
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT (25bp hike to 4% priced, vote f/c 7-2) and Bailey at 12:30 could materially shift this read; a more dovish split puts 1.3410 back in view
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 GMT and NFP Fri: a USD rebound would test the weekly higher lows trendline near 1.3422
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 54 · price 1.34678
Range breakout Wednesday, NY fade holding above Monday high.
The week opened at 1.3385 and spent Monday–Tuesday ranging between 1.3396 and the 1.3448 Monday high, with the Tuesday high at 1.3432 capping the second day. The Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD from Wednesday's Asia session and price broke the range, extending through London to a week high of 1.3503 before a rejection just above 1.3500 in the London-NY transition. The NY fade found demand at 1.3454, the 50% retracement of Wednesday's impulse and just above the Monday high, leaving a lower high at 1.3477; price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.3465 with RSI(14) back to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3454, 1.3448, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3448 Monday high puts price back inside the prior range and exposes the 1.3432 Tuesday high
A break of the 1.3454 NY low would extend the pullback past the 50% retracement of Wednesday's impulse
Close above the 1.3477 lower high reopens the 1.3503 week high and the 1.3500 handle
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT: a vote split more dovish than 7-2 could materially shift this read
Friday's US NFP is the next USD risk for the breakout, which has been USD-led
Weekly higher-lows trendline from Monday's low sits near 1.3426 as deeper structure
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 53 · price 1.34637
Range breakout, retest of 1.3448-54.
GBP/USD broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.3396–1.3448 range in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. London extended the move to a 1.3503 week high before supply capped it into the London-NY transition. The NY low at 1.3454 sits at the 50% retrace of the Wednesday impulse and just above the Monday high. Price is now flat on EMA(20) near 1.3464, with RSI(14) cooled to ~53 from the 70s.
Support: 1.3454, 1.3448, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.3448 (Monday high) returns price to the prior range and fails the breakout retest
Recovery through the 1.3477 lower high reopens the 1.3503 week high; acceptance above 1.3500–1.3510 extends the breakout
Loss of the 1.3432 Tuesday high brings the week higher lows trendline near 1.3425 into play
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT: a dovish vote split (3+ unchanged) could materially pressure 1.3448; NFP follows Friday
Higher lows above broken 1.3448 range top; lower highs since 1.3503 peak.
Midterm-driven USD selling broke the Monday–Tuesday 1.3400–1.3448 range late on Tuesday. The move carried through the Asian session to a week high of 1.3503 at the NY open, then rejection there brought a fade to 1.3454. That level is the fib 38.2 of the week's rally from 1.3379, and demand held it on two bars. Price sits just above the ema20 near 1.3465 with RSI(14) back to the high 50s, while the 1.3477 lower high caps the rebound so far.
Support: 1.3465, 1.3454, 1.3448
Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.3454 (fib 38.2) exposes 1.3448, the prior high and old range top. A slip through it would break the higher-lows line.
Recovery above the 1.3477 lower high and acceptance over the 1.3503 week high would resume the breakout sequence.
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 GMT, Bailey at 12:30 GMT. A dovish split could test the 1.3448 prior high.
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri could reshape the USD-led leg.
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 48 · price 1.3459
Breakout from Mon–Tue range, retracing toward the old range top.
GBPUSD broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.3396–1.3448 range in early Asia session Wednesday as USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep. The move extended to a week high at 1.3503 around the NY open, where supply capped the print. Four straight lower closes into NY hours have pushed price back below EMA(20) at 1.3463 and through the rising trendline from Tuesday's low, with RSI(14) easing to ~48 from near 70. Price now sits just above the Monday high at 1.3448, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally. The Tuesday high at 1.3432 is the next shelf below.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3463, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3448 monday high / 50% rally fib puts the breakout into question and exposes the 1.3432 tuesday high
Failure to hold 1.3432 returns price to the old range, with the 1.3396 tuesday low as the range floor
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.3463 restores the trend structure; acceptance above the 1.3503 week high extends it
BoE decision, vote split and Bailey presser Thu 12:00–12:30 GMT; a dovish split carries sell-the-fact risk for GBP
US jobless claims Thu and Nonfarm Payrolls Fri could shift the USD-driven leg of this move
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from 1.3500 · RSI 57 · price 1.3471
Breakout from Mon–Tue range; first pullback to EMA20.
After opening the week at 1.3385, GBPUSD spent Monday and Tuesday ranging between 1.3396 and the 1.3448 Monday high. The broad USD selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep broke that range from late Tuesday into the Asia session and carried price to a 1.3503 week high around the NY open, where 1.3500 capped three attempts and a lower high formed at 1.3491. The NY-hours pullback found the EMA(20) at 1.3462, just through the 38.2% retracement of the midterm rally fib, with RSI(14) easing from near 70 to the high 50s; slightly soft UK PMIs left little visible mark.
Support: 1.3462, 1.3448, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3491, 1.3503
What it said to watch
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT: more than two 'unchanged' votes could drag price back toward the 1.3448 Monday high and the 50% fib
H1 close back below the 1.3448 Monday high would reopen the Mon–Tue range and expose Tuesday's 1.3432 prior high
Acceptance above the 1.3503 week high extends the leg; another cap below the 1.3491 lower high builds a near-term top
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.3462 shifts focus to the higher-lows trendline from Monday's low
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 59 · price 1.34739
Range break to a higher high, first pullback testing the impulse's 38.2% fib.
GBPUSD broke out of the 1.3396–1.3432 range that held Monday and Tuesday when the Democrats' midterm sweep hit the USD in late Tuesday and Asia trade. London then extended the move through the 1.3448 Monday high to a 1.3503 week high near the NY open. Supply capped the 1.35 handle, and the pullback has broken the intraday rising line from the 1.3448 Asian low, with RSI(14) easing to ~58 from the mid-70s. Price is now testing the 1.3469 pullback low, just above EMA(20) at ~1.3465 and the 38.2% level of the Wednesday impulse fib.
Support: 1.3469, 1.3448, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3469 pullback low and EMA(20) exposes 1.3448, the Monday high and 50% fib area
Acceptance back below the 1.3432 range top would turn the breakout into a false break; the week higher-lows line from the 1.3379 weekly low sits near 1.3418
H1 close above the 1.3503 week high reopens the push through the 1.35 handle
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC (7-2 hike f/c) could materially shift this read via the vote split and guidance; US claims Thu 13:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC follow
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended near week high · RSI 68 · price 1.3489
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's Asia breakout above the Mon–Tue range.
Cable is about 100 pips above the 1.3385 weekly open. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD and lifted price from the 1.3408 impulse low out of the 1.3400–1.3448 Monday–Tuesday range. The monday high at 1.3448 held on a retest overnight, and London's pullback to the 1.3469 session low respected the rising trendline near the 38.2% of the impulse fib. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.3466 with RSI(14) around 68. The week high at 1.3503 capped the push during the London-NY transition after the ADP beat, and that bar closed well off its high.
Support: 1.3469, 1.3448, 1.3408
Resistance: 1.3503
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) lands with price pinned under the 1.3503 week high and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3503 week high extends the breakout; repeated failure there turns it into a rejection
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3469 session low exposes a deeper retest of the 1.3448 monday high
Loss of 1.3448 back into the prior range reopens the 1.3408 impulse low and undermines the breakout read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC and Bailey at 12:30 UTC are the next major risk for this structure
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into 1.3500 · RSI 76 · price 1.34987
Breakout from Mon–Tue range, higher lows Wednesday.
The USD slumped on the Democratic midterm sweep, and Wednesday's Asia session lifted the pair from the 1.3408 Asia low out of the 1.3396–1.3448 range that held through Monday and Tuesday. The 05:00 UTC dip held exactly at the 1.3448 Monday high, and London extended the move to the 1.3500 round number, with a further higher low at the 1.3469 pullback low. Price sits well above EMA(20) near 1.3463, and RSI(14) is overbought around 76 as the week high presses into the 1.3480–1.3510 resistance zone, whose zone top is 1.3510.
Support: 1.3469, 1.3448, 1.3408
Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3510
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8): a soft print risks extending the USD unwind through the 1.3500 round number toward the 1.3510 zone top, while a strong one tests the Wednesday higher lows
An H1 close below the 1.3469 pullback low breaks the Wednesday higher-lows trendline and opens a deeper fib retracement of Wednesday's impulse toward the 1.3448 Monday high
Failure to hold the 1.3448 Monday high returns price to the old range and puts the 1.3408 Asia low back in play
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: a vote split wider or narrower than the 7-2 consensus could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range break · RSI 73 · price 1.34847
Mon–Tue range broken higher Wednesday; higher lows since Asia.
GBPUSD spent Monday and Tuesday boxed between 1.3400 and the 1.3448 range top. The USD selloff on the Democratic Congress sweep then drove a range break in Wednesday's Asia session from the 1.3409 breakout base, and the London session extended it to a week high at 1.3498, just shy of the 1.3500–1.3510 psych zone. The 1.3469 pullback low is holding above EMA(20) and the rising trend line, while RSI(14) near 73 sits overbought after the Wednesday impulse; softer UK PMIs did not dent the move.
Support: 1.3469, 1.3448, 1.3409
Resistance: 1.3498, 1.3510
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3469 pullback low breaks the rising trend line and exposes the 1.3448 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3448 range top, near the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday impulse, would turn the range break into a false break toward the 1.3409 breakout base
H1 close above the 1.3498 week high and the 1.3500–1.3510 psych zone extends the impulse
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range breakout · RSI 73 · price 1.3480
Higher highs and higher lows; Mon–Tue range broken to the upside.
From the 1.3385 weekly open, a London rally on Monday set the 1.3448 mon high. Price then held a 1.3400–1.3448 range through Tuesday, with the range floor near 1.3400 holding on a series of higher lows. The range broke during Wednesday's Asia session as USD sold off on the Democrats' sweep of Congress, and London extended the move to a 1.3498 week high just shy of 1.3500 while softer UK PMIs were ignored. Price sits well above the ema20 near 1.3456 with RSI(14) in overbought territory after the impulse.
Support: 1.3456, 1.3448, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3498
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Acceptance above the 1.3498 week high and 1.3500 psych level extends the higher-highs sequence
An H1 close back below the 1.3448 mon high puts price back inside the prior range and undercuts the breakout
A break of the higher lows trendline, then the 1.3400 range floor, would undo the week's structure
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to the read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating into overbought · RSI 75 · price 1.34904
Range breakout; higher highs and higher lows since the Asia session.
GBPUSD broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.3396–1.3432 range during the Asia session as the Democratic sweep in the US midterms pulled the USD lower. It extended to a 1.3495 week high in London this morning, an ~87-pip midterm impulse from the 1.3408 Asia base. The overnight dip found demand at 1.3448, Monday's prior high, and that kept the sequence of higher lows intact above a rising EMA(20). RSI(14) near 75 is overbought, with Tuesday's 1.3432 high now the breakout level beneath and the 1.3500 round number directly overhead.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3408
Resistance: 1.3495, 1.3500
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 1.3448 prior high would break the overnight higher lows and put the 50–61.8% retracement of the midterm impulse in play
A return below the 1.3432 breakout lvl would reopen the Monday–Tuesday range and turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 1.3495 week high / 1.3500 round number while RSI rolls off overbought would point to a stall. Acceptance above 1.3500 would extend the breakout
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 76 · price 1.34824
Higher lows since Monday; break above Monday high.
From a 1.3385 weekly open, the pair built higher lows through Monday and Tuesday. The dominant move came in Wednesday's Asia session, as USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep and price cleared the Monday high at 1.3448. London extended the leg to a 1.3492 week high, while the Asia pullback held the Monday high, where EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the week low–high move converge. RSI(14) sits near 75, overbought and flat against the earlier push despite the higher high.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3492, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday high and EMA(20) at 1.3448 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Tuesday high at 1.3432 puts price back inside Tuesday's range and toward the higher lows trendline
Acceptance above the 1.3492 week high and the 1.3500 round number extends the breakout leg
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3385 would erase the week's gains and break the higher lows sequence
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday; Mon–Tue 1.3396–1.3448 range broken to the upside.
Monday and Tuesday held a 1.3396–1.3448 range, with the London-open push to the range top on Monday and a NY attempt at 1.3432 on Tuesday both fading. The range break came late Tuesday into the Asia session on broad USD selling after the Democratic sweep. Price ran to a week high of 1.3485 at London open. The 38.2% retracement of the week impulse from the 1.3379 Monday low sits near 1.3445, alongside EMA(20) and the former range top at 1.3448. RSI(14) is near 74 and price is well extended above EMA(20), while the higher-lows line from Friday's 1.3374 low stays intact.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3485, 1.3500
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.3448 range top / EMA(20) / 38.2% week impulse cluster keeps the breakout structure intact; a close back inside the range flags a false break
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today: firm US prints could pull price back toward 1.3448
Acceptance above the 1.3500 round number extends the week-high sequence; a new high with lower RSI would mark bearish divergence
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC and Bailey at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.3396 range low and the higher-lows line, then the 1.3385 weekly open, would unwind the week's structure
Range break above 1.3448 with higher lows since Monday.
From the 1.3385 weekly open, Monday's London-open spike stalled at the 1.3448 old cap, and Tuesday's NY push faded from 1.3432 (the tue high). Price then ranged above the 1.3400 range floor on a series of higher lows. The break came in the Asia session as the USD sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep, carrying the pair to a week high at 1.3479. A late-Asia dip then held the old cap at 1.3448 to the pip. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.3441 into London open, with RSI(14) near 69 after easing from overbought readings at the high.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3479, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3448 old cap would return price to the prior range and turn the break into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.3479 week high opens the 1.3500 round number
Loss of the higher lows trendline toward the tue high at 1.3432 and the 50% fib near 1.3429 would undercut the week's structure
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC, with Bailey at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending after Asia breakout · RSI 69 · price 1.34605
Higher lows since Friday; Mon–Tue range broken higher, pullback retesting prior high.
The Asia session drove a roughly 70-pip range break out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.3396–1.3432 box. Price printed a week high at 1.3479 as the USD slid on the Democratic midterm sweep. The pullback has so far held the prior high at 1.3448, close to the 50% retracement of the Asia impulse, while price stays above a rising EMA(20) near 1.3439 and RSI(14) sits near 69. Higher lows from Friday's 1.3374 trough through Monday and Tuesday keep the uptrend structure intact.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3439, 1.3432
Resistance: 1.3479, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3448 prior high and the ema20 near 1.3439 would turn the breakout into a false break and reopen the 1.3432 range top
Close above the 1.3479 week high opens the path to the 1.3500 round number
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could reverse the USD leg that drove the Asia impulse
BoE decision and MPC vote Thu 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the higher lows trendline would end the sequence of rising lows that has held since Monday
Higher lows all week; Mon–Tue range broken to the upside in Asia.
The week opened near 1.3385 and rallied in Monday's London session to the 1.3448 Monday high. Tuesday then held a 1.3396–1.3432 range despite firm US JOLTS and Factory Orders. Today's Asia session broke that range from a 1.3408 Asia base as USD slumped on the midterm results, printing a 1.3479 session high. Price sits at 1.3458, about 23 pips above EMA(20) near 1.3435, with RSI(14) near 70, and the rising lows from last Thursday still intact. The last three bars carry upper wicks into 1.3473–1.3479, and the 50% retracement of the Asia impulse sits on the Monday high.
Support: 1.34479, 1.3435, 1.34076
Resistance: 1.34787, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3448 Monday high would flag a false break back into the Mon–Tue range
Close above the 1.3479 session high opens the 1.3500 round number
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 1.3435 keep the impulse structure intact; loss of the 1.3408 Asia base erases the breakout
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 GMT, Bailey at 12:30 GMT
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive extension in Asia · RSI 71 · price 1.34778
Higher lows since Monday; range break above Monday high.
GBPUSD broke out of Tuesday's 1.3396–1.3432 range from the Asian base near 1.3408, clearing the Monday high at 1.3448 and the lower-highs line as USD slid on early midterm results. The week has built higher lows from Monday's 1.3379 low, and the Asia session has carried price to a session high near 1.3479. RSI(14) is around 71 and price sits roughly 40 pips above EMA(20) near 1.3436, so the move is stretched relative to its recent cycle.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3436, 1.3408
Resistance: 1.3479, 1.3500
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the Monday high at 1.3448 would put the breakout at risk of a false break
Loss of EMA(20) near 1.3436 would mark the first pullback of the leg; the higher-lows line near 1.3412 and the Asian base at 1.3408 sit below
A close above the 1.3479 session high opens the 1.3500 round number
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could revive USD and shift this read
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 GMT, with Bailey at 12:30 GMT, is the main risk to the structure
Higher lows since Monday; Asia break above 1.3400–1.3448 range.
GBPUSD spent Monday and Tuesday boxed between the 1.3400 range low and Monday's London high at 1.3448. Tuesday's NY high at 1.3432 capped the pair after the strong JOLTS print. The USD slump on the midterm results drove a near 67-pip Asia session impulse to a week high at 1.3474, with the 50% retrace of that impulse sitting near 1.3441, inside the 1.3432–1.3448 shelf, and the 61.8% line near 1.3433. RSI(14) has pushed into the low 70s and price sits roughly 40 pips above EMA(20) near 1.3432, so the move is stretched after the rising lows held from 1.3379 and 1.3396 earlier in the week.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3432, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3474, 1.3500
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3448 monday high would mark a false break and put price back inside the range
Tue high at 1.3432, now aligned with EMA(20) and the 61.8% retrace, is the first test of the breakout if the Monday high gives way
A clear break of the week high at 1.3474 leaves the 1.3500 round number as the next reference
Loss of the rising lows line near 1.3410 and the 1.3400 range low would negate the higher-low sequence
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, plus final midterm calls, could reverse the USD-led move
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 GMT could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range break · RSI 72 · price 1.34638
Higher lows since Monday; Mon–Tue 1.3400–1.3448 range broken higher in Asia.
Wednesday's Asia session broke the 1.3400–1.3448 range that contained Monday and Tuesday. Cable cleared the Monday high and printed an Asia high at 1.3474 as USD slumped on early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains. Price sits well above EMA(20) near 1.3427 with RSI(14) around 72, overbought after a near-40-pip hourly bar, while higher lows from Monday's 1.3379 low through Tuesday's 1.3396 keep the uptrend sequence intact.
Support: 1.3448, 1.3427, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3474, 1.3500
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the Monday high at 1.3448 would turn the range break into a false break
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 1.3427 keep the uptrend cycle intact; a break below shifts focus to the range floor
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.3400 breaks the higher lows sequence
Asia high at 1.3474 and the 1.3500 round number are the next caps; acceptance above extends the Mon low to Asia high leg
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 1.34392
The Friday–Monday impulse from 1.3374 peaked at the 1.3448 week high in the first hours of London on Monday, as USD weakness lifted the pair. Price then ranged 1.3396–1.3448 through Tuesday, with pullbacks holding near the 61.8% retracement and printing a string of higher lows. An Asia-session push early Wednesday, as US midterm results began landing, lifted price back above the 1.3432 Tuesday high and the EMA(20) near 1.3420, with RSI(14) near 64 but still no print above Monday's peak.
Support: 1.3432, 1.3420, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3448, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3448 week high breaks the two-day range and opens the 1.3500 round number
Slip back below the 1.3432 Tuesday high returns price to the range; a loss of the 1.3396 range low also breaks the higher-lows trendline
Midterm calls, ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, then the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in a range below week high · RSI 61 · price 1.34326
Higher lows from Friday; range 1.3396–1.3448 since Monday.
The leg up began in Thursday's NY session from 1.3296. Monday's London push from the weekly open at 1.3385 to the week high at 1.3448 came mostly on USD weakness as oil fell, and price has ranged 1.3396–1.3435 since, with Friday's and Tuesday's prior highs near 1.3434 capping and Tuesday's NY push fading after the US JOLTS beat. A late-Tuesday jump into the Asia open, as midterm results began landing, has price back at that cap, holding above EMA(20) near 1.3419 with RSI(14) at 61 and a higher-lows line from Friday's 1.3374 intact.
Support: 1.3419, 1.3400, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the prior highs at 1.3434 and the 1.3448 week high breaks the range to the upside
A close back below EMA(20) at 1.3419, then the 1.3400 range low, would break the higher-lows line toward the weekly open at 1.3385
US midterm Senate calls through Asia/Europe could jolt the USD leg overnight
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC Wednesday; BoE decision Thursday at 12:00 UTC is the larger event risk
00:01 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday, compressing below week high · RSI 58 · price 1.34294
Higher lows from 1.3374 against lower highs from 1.3448; range 1.3396–1.3448.
GBPUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's NY-session impulse off 1.3296. Monday's London spike to the 1.3448 week high faded, and Tuesday's NY push stalled at the 1.3433 prior highs, leaving a compressing range between the 1.3396 higher low and the lower highs from 1.3448. The latest bar lifted about 25 pips off 1.3410 as US midterm results began to land, putting price back above EMA(20) near 1.3416 and onto the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.3416, 1.3396, 1.3385
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3434 prior highs and the lower-highs line puts the 1.3448 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3396 higher low and the 1.3385 week open breaks the higher-lows trendline and the 38.2% of the Thu–Mon impulse near 1.3390
Overnight Senate call plus Wednesday's ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift the USD leg
BoE Thursday 12:00 UTC: a vote split away from the 7-2 consensus could break the compression either way