Double top at 1.3500, lower highs, broke below 1.3400.
The two-week rally from the 1.3272 major low stalled in a double top at 1.3500. It has since unwound through the 1.3455 neckline and the 1.3400 break level, as the blowout NFP and a 'sell the fact' BoE reaction hit GBP. Price is now past the 61.8% fib near 1.3360 and is pressing the week low at 1.3342, with the 78.6% fib at 1.3321 the next reference. The rising trendline from the late-October low is broken. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 30 pips and RSI sits deep in oversold territory. EMA20 is converging on EMA50 with both overhead, and lower highs continue to define the move.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3321, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3455, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3400 break level would neutralise the breakdown and put the neckline at 1.3455 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3342 week low exposes the 1.3321 fib 78.6% and then the 1.3272 major low
BoE Bailey Mon 17:25 UTC: keeping December live versus echoing Pill's 'no preset path' could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next test of the post-NFP USD bid
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 UTC versus the 0.7% QoQ forecast
An EMA20/EMA50 bearish cross would confirm the swing roll-over from the double top
Double top at 1.3500 resolved lower, lower highs since 1.3503.
The rally from the 1.3272 swing low ran into a double top at 1.3503/1.3501. Price then lost the 1.3448 neckline and the 1.3400 psych level on the blowout NFP print after a sell-the-fact BoE hike, retracing beyond the 61.8% fib near 1.3360 to a recent low at 1.3342. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI oversold and ATR(14) expanding near 32 pips. The 1.3300 round number and the 1.3272 swing low are the next downside references, while the lower highs off the top cap any bounce.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3448, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3342 recent low exposes the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3272 swing low
An H4 close back above 1.3400 psych would ease the downtrend read; the 1.3448 neckline sits above
A break above the lower highs line and 1.3503 would invalidate the double top
Bailey speaks Mon 17:25 UTC; a hawkish lean on December could squeeze residual GBP shorts
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and UK Q3 GDP Thu could materially shift this read