GBP/USD's Oct–Nov rally carried price from the mid-October 1.3137 oct low through a chain of higher lows, including the 1.3272 swing low on Oct 28. It stalled at the 1.3503 nov high, a lower high against the 1.3568 sep high and a touch of the lower highs line. Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) landed right after a BoE hike the market had fully priced. The result was a ~120-pip rejection candle that closed at 1.3347, below 1.3400 psych, below the rising trendline from the October low, and back under both EMA(20) and a flat EMA(50). RSI eased to ~49 and sits just under the 38.2% level of the rally, with the 50% retrace at 1.3320 next.
Support: 1.3320, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3503, 1.3568
What it said to watch
A daily close back above 1.3400 psych would negate Friday's rising trendline break.
Failure to hold the 50% retrace at 1.3320 and the 1.3272 swing low would confirm a lower-low sequence and expose the 1.3137 oct low.
The 1.3503 nov high caps the recovery. A close above it breaks the lower highs line and brings the 1.3568 sep high into view.
Bailey speaks Mon 17:25 UTC and US CPI is out Tue 13:30 UTC. Either could materially shift this read, with UK Q3 GDP following Thu.
19:24 UTC
Recovery from Oct low stalling, rejected at 1.3500 · RSI 49 · price 1.33473
HH/HL off 1.3137 intact above 1.3272; lower high vs Sept peak.
The recovery from the mid-October 1.3137 oct low built a higher low at 1.3272 (Oct 28), then a six-session run to a 1.3503 nov high. That peak is still a lower high beneath the 1.3568 sept high and sits on the lower highs line. Friday's blowout NFP, with the BoE hike sold as fully priced, produced a 115-pip rejection candle to a 1.3342 nfp low. The close came back below the 1.3400 break level and under the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3366, breaching the rising support line from the Oct low, with RSI at 49 and price below the 38.2% of the Oct-Nov fib (1.3363).
Support: 1.33421, 1.32723, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3503, 1.35677
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 1.3272 higher low, which aligns with the 61.8% of the Oct-Nov fib, breaks the HH/HL sequence from the oct low and reopens 1.3137
A daily close back above the 1.3400 break level, reclaiming the EMA cluster, restores the recovery read toward the 1.3503 nov high
Acceptance through 1.3503 would break the lower highs line and expose the 1.3568 sept high
Holding Friday's 1.3342 nfp low keeps the drop a one-day rejection rather than a trend change
Bailey (Mon 17:25 UTC), US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and UK Q3 GDP (Thu 07:00 UTC) could materially shift this read