21:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above multi-week floor · RSI 56 · price 1.32354
Lower highs from 1.3311 onto a flat floor near 1.3181 (descending triangle).
The slide from 1.3518 has stalled into a descending triangle. Highs keep stepping lower from the 1.3311 swing high to the 1.3286 prior high and the 1.3250 lower high, while five tests of the 1.3181–1.3184 range floor have held. Price sits just above a flat EMA20/EMA50 pair near 1.3223, at roughly the 50% pullback of the 1.3286–1.3184 drop. ATR(14) has compressed to about 24 pips, consistent with a firm USD into CPI offsetting BoE hike pricing.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3206, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286, 1.3311
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 1.3182 range floor confirms a breakdown from the triangle and a fresh lower low
- Close above the 1.3250 lower high breaks the descending sequence and opens the 1.3286 prior high, then the 1.3311 swing high
- Loss of the 1.3206 swing low and ema50 near 1.3223 puts the floor back under test
- US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
- BoE speakers (Breeden, Pill) and UK Aug GDP Thu 15 Oct 06:00 UTC are risks to hike pricing and the range